Tamarin Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let's have a look at what’s on the table.

First thing to get your head around is that this is Tamarin Bay. It’s a reef set-up that needs a very specific combination to work well, and it’s not your everyday beach break. The good news is there is some serious energy coming through, but it takes its sweet time getting here. The water’s hanging around 77°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start. The first action we can talk about lands on Saturday the 11th of July, but it’s a tough one. Swell is 6 ft from the SSW with a long 15-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1350 – that’s proper moderate energy. But the wind is a cross-shore breeze from the ENE at 12 mph, which is puttin’ a bit of a chop on the face. It’s not the clean, lined-up reef perfection you want. It’s more of a “watch and wait” day, not a standout.

Sunday the 12th is a write-off. Swell jumps up to 8 ft to 8 ft from the SSW with periods of 15 to 16 seconds, and the energy is huge – over 2500. But the wind is cross-onshore and it’s gonna be choppy and messy. Not for the average surfer, and honestly, not looking much fun for anyone but a kiteboarder in that kind of wind.

Now, Monday the 13th has a moment. The morning is still a bit average with a cross-shore wind, but the afternoon... that’s when it gets interesting. Swell sits at 7 ft from the SSW, 14-second period, and the energy is still high at 1644. But the wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the SE at only 6 mph. That cleans it right up. The report calls it excellent conditions for experienced surfers. With that period being long, it’s a groundswell, and on this reef it should hold a nice shape. This is a standout moment – the best of the first week. But remember, it’s an advanced wave and it’s inconsistent here, so you’ve gotta be patient and know what you’re doing.

After that, things go pretty quiet. From Tuesday the 14th right through to Saturday the 18th, we’ve got a run of small, onshore, or weak conditions. The swell drops, cross-on winds kick back in, and the energy numbers tank to below 500 most days. There’s a gap of about five or six days where you wouldn’t bother.

Then, we get a flicker of hope. Saturday the 18th morning and afternoon both have glassy conditions – that’s wind out of the east at 3 mph, then flat calm in the arvo. Swell is small, 3 ft to 4 ft from the south with a 13-second period, but it’s clean. Combined energy is low – 448 and 339 – so it’s not powerful, but if you’re on a log, or just want a peaceful glide, it’ll be pretty. For a proper wave though, this is background noise.

The real standout of the whole outlook is Monday the 20th of July. Morning session looks incredible. Swell pulses up to 7 ft from the SW with a 17-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The energy hits 2483, which is strong. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SE at 9 mph, and the report says excellent for experienced surfers. This is the day to circle. Afternoon on the 20th is still solid at 8 ft, same direction, but the wind picks up a bit to 12 mph – still clean, but the morning has the magic.

Tuesday the 21st keeps that run going. Morning has a solid 7 ft from the SW at 14 seconds, with the wind turning offshore from the SSE at 12 mph. Clean, powerful, and for the advanced crew, that’s as good as it gets around here.

From Wednesday the 22nd onward, the swell hangs around but the wind gets stronger, hitting 19-22 mph from the SE. The wave heights stay between 6 ft and 8 ft, but with that kind of breeze, even if it’s cross-off, it’s gonna be a battle. The energy stays moderate to high, but the quality drops. By the 25th and 26th of July, we’re into the small stuff again, though the 26th afternoon has a spike of energy at 1658 from a 20-second period SW swell at 5 ft – could be a sneaky clean one if you’re watching it.

Overall, don’t waste your time in the first few days unless you’re watching the Monday the 13th arvo. The real gem is Monday the 20th morning. For the rest, wait for the glassy windows on the 18th if you want a mellow paddle, but for power and shape, the 20th and 21st are your best bets. Keep an eye on that wind forecast, because when it goes offshore on this reef, it’s a different world.

Rusty.

Read more