Ile des Deux Cocos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, checking in with the forecast for Ile des Deux Cocos. To be honest, it’s a tough stretch ahead. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle. This is a reef break that’s inconsistent at the best of times, and we’re seeing a lot of cross-shore and cross-offshore winds that are just killing the quality.

The water is sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, coming in at 77°.

Let’s talk about the first week. From Monday the 3rd through to Sunday the 9th, it’s pretty much a write-off. We’ve got small swell, mostly around 1 ft to 3 ft, and the wind is a fresh breeze from the east or southeast, keeping things bumpy and cross-chop. The combined energy is weak to moderate at best, with values like 625 (Monday) and 310 (Tuesday), but the models are screaming “poor surf conditions” every single day. Saturday the 8th sees a slight bump to 3 ft with a 19-second period, giving us a combined energy of 750, but that cross-shore wind is still a problem. It’s just not clean.

The second week is a little more interesting, but it’s still not good. Monday the 10th through Thursday the 13th stays small and messy, with cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions. The swell direction is mostly southwest, which is not the ideal south for this spot.

Now, we finally get a pulse of size on Saturday the 15th. The swell jumps to 5 ft in the morning, pushing 6 ft in the afternoon, from the south with a 14-17 second period. The combined energy ramps up to 1343 and then a whopping 2899. That is a lot of power. But here’s the heartbreaker: the wind is still a moderate cross-shore, and the commentary calls it “marginal surf forecast.” It’s a shame because the potential is there for a solid wave, but the wind is just going to mess it up. For beginners, 5 ft to 6 ft is starting to get a bit much, and the inconsistent nature of this break means you'll be waiting for sets.

Sunday the 16th is the biggest of the run, with swell hitting 7 ft from the SSW with an 18-second period. The combined energy is a massive 3067. That’s serious groundswell energy. But the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, and the records call it “poor surf conditions.” This is really only for experts, and even then, the wind is going to make it ugly. The long period means it’s going to be fat and straight at this reef, though it might line up.

The very end of the run, Tuesday the 18th, finally shows a bit of hope. Swell is a cleaner 3 ft from the southwest, period 14 seconds, and the wind drops to a moderate cross-offshore. The combined energy is 681, and the model gives it a score of 2, calling it “marginal.” It’s not a standout, but it’s the best we’ve seen in two weeks. The wind will be clean, and the wave height is manageable for a beginner at this reef.

Honestly, I’d call this a blank run for the most part. For a break that’s already inconsistent, this stretch of poor wind and lumpy conditions is normal for the area. Don’t get your hopes up. If you have a kite, this setup with the cross-shore winds and moderate swell might be more your speed than a surfboard. Otherwise, wait for the next forecast update.

Rusty.

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