Black Rocks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

The next sixteen days are a bit of a mixed bag, with a fair bit of waiting for the real juice to turn up. The opening week is mostly quiet, with only small, marginal waves hanging around, but the second half of the period looks much more promising, with a serious pulse of swell on the horizon. Black Rocks is our only spot to focus on, so let’s see what it’s got.

Right now, starting Sunday the 9th, it’s a bit of a non-starter. We’ve got a 4ft SW swell rolling in, but with a 16 mph cross-shore ESE wind, it’s messy and poor. The combined swell energy is weak (616). Not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 10th sees a cleaner picture with easing cross-offshore winds from the East at 19 mph, but the swell is tiny at 3ft to 4ft, and while the morning looks clean, the waves are just too small to get excited about. The energy is still moderate (608 to 667). You could get a few if you’re desperate, but it’s marginal.

Tuesday the 11th through Thursday the 13th remain in the same boat: small SW swell around 3ft to 4ft, with light to moderate cross-shore winds. Thursday afternoon the 13th is the best of this bunch, with glassy conditions and a 3ft SW swell, but honestly, it’s a knee-high dribbler. The energy is weak (271). Still, it’s the cleanest wave of the early week, so if you need a fix, go for a longboard in the late afternoon.

Friday the 14th shows a slight uptick. The morning is clean with a 4ft SW swell, but the afternoon brings a bigger 5ft SSW swell and the combined energy jumps to moderate (1019). The wind stays cross-off, so it’s clean, but it’s still just building.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout is the weekend of the 15th and 16th of August. Saturday the 15th morning has a small 4ft SW swell, but the period is 20 seconds – that’s very long-period groundswell. The energy is strong (2185). By the afternoon, we’re looking at a 7ft S swell with a 19-second period, and the energy is very strong (4088). The wind is a clean cross-off from the East at 16 mph. This is proper, powerful swell, but at over 7ft, it’s getting into expert territory, especially for a reef break like Black Rocks. It’s inconsistent here, so the sets will be spaced out, and the long period means it’ll jack up fast and steep. This is for the experienced crew only.

Sunday the 16th is the biggest of the run. Morning sees a 10ft SSW swell with a 17-second period, and the combined energy is massive (4479). The wind is still clean cross-off. This is a serious, borderline heavy swell. For most surfers, this is expert-only territory. The afternoon drops slightly to 8ft, but with rain showers and a 16 mph wind, it’ll be a bit more challenging.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th still have solid, clean swell from the south, around 4ft to 5ft, but the energy starts to drop back to moderate levels. The winds stay cross-off and clean, so there’s still fun waves to be had for the intermediate crowd.

The quiet returns from Wednesday the 19th through Thursday the 20th, with tiny 1ft to 3ft swells and very low energy (247 to 112). Not much doing.

Then, another pulse arrives on Friday the 21st of August. The morning shows a 10ft SSW swell with a 12-second period, and the energy is very strong (2948). The wind is light cross-shore, so it’s clean but heavy. By the afternoon, the wind turns cross-on and choppy, so the morning window is the pick. This is another expert-only session with the size.

Saturday the 22nd holds a 8ft S swell in the morning, with gentle cross-shore winds and a slight chop. The energy is still very strong (2633). It’s big, but the wind is a bit better. Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th see the swell drop back to 3ft to 5ft, but the winds get strong and lumpy, making it pretty poor.

Overall, the best of the entire period is the Saturday the 15th afternoon through Sunday the 16th morning. That’s the big, clean, long-period SW groundswell at Black Rocks. It’s a reef break that’s inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for the sets, but when they come, they’ll be powerful. Get out there if you’ve got the skills and the nerve. For the rest of us, the Thursday afternoon the 13th offers the cleanest small wave option.

Rusty.

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