Grand Sancho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m calling it straight from the sand. We’ve got a long outlook ahead here at Grand Sancho, and honestly, things are looking pretty rough for a while. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 76°F.

The first week of this forecast is a write-off for quality surfing. From Sunday the 30th right through to the end of the first week, we’re looking at a constant cross-shore wind, mostly from the ESE, between 15 and 25 mph. That’s just trashing the surface. The swell is pumping, sure – we’re talking a massive 8ft to 10ft of swell, with combined wave energy hitting between 1000 and 4000 (moderate to strong energy). But with that wind, it’s a messy, lumpy cross-chop. Not worth paddling out for. The swell is also too big for this spot on the 31st of August and the 1st of September, with the swell hitting 10ft to 8ft, and it’s a short-period 9-second ESE windswell, which won’t hold up well here anyway.

There’s a long gap here with no real reason to get wet. The wind stays stubbornly cross-shore through the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th of September. The conditions are just “poor” or “marginal” at best. The swell drops a little on the 5th, down to 6ft, and the period stretches to 15 seconds from the SW, but that cross-shore wind is still there, ruining the surface.

Then, finally, on the morning of Sunday the 6th of September, we get a glimpse of hope. The wind drops right off to just 3 mph from the ESE – a light cross-shore with just small ripples on the water. The swell is 4ft from the SSW, with a 13-second period. That’s clean, but the swell is still pretty weak, with combined energy around 1223. It’s marginal, but it’s the first session that looks remotely surfable.

The next real standout, and the best bet in this whole 16-day window, is the morning of Monday the 14th of September. That’s over two weeks out, so keep that in mind, but it looks promising. The wind is light from the east at 9 mph, a gentle cross-shore that’ll keep things fairly clean. The swell is a solid 7ft from the SSW, with a long 18-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and combined energy is a strong 3386. This is a point and beach break, and that long period will be better out on the point. The waves will have power and shape, even if the sets are a little spaced out. It’s too big for beginners at 7ft, but for the intermediate crew, that’s a session to circle on the calendar.

The rest of the second week is still plagued by cross-shore winds and messy conditions. The 9th and 10th of September see the swell rocket up to 13ft with massive energy (5000-6000), but it’s just too big for this spot, and the wind is cross-shore or cross-onshore. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a washout. The second week has a few small windows of clean-ish conditions, but the only real standout is the 14th of September morning. Mark it, but don’t plan your life around it yet.

Rusty.

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