Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is a bit of a tough one, folks. I’m looking at Blue Bay, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a rough stretch ahead. The reef here is a beginner-friendly spot, but it’s inconsistent, and when it does show some life, the conditions are just not cooperating.

Right now, water temps are sitting at 77°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Feels like a bath, but that’s about the only thing going for us.

The pattern for the next week and a half is pretty grim. We’ve got a solid run of fresh onshore easterly winds day after day, with wind speeds around 15 to 22 mph. That’s blowing straight into the break, making a mess of things. The swell is present—mostly from the south and southwest, running 2 ft to 4 ft—but it’s all junk. The wave energy is moderate, with values between 163 and 609, but it means nothing when the wind is trashing it. The wave comment is "poor surf conditions" all the way through, and the scores are zeroes. It’s a blank run.

Things start to get a bit more interesting around the 14th of August. The swell picks up, with a solid 8 ft south swell rolling in on Friday the 14th, and the combined energy jumps to 2030 – that’s strong energy. But that’s expert territory at 8 ft, and with the wind still hammering onshore, it’s gonna be a wild, messy paddle. The wave comment is still "poor surf conditions," so it’s not a goer.

Then on the 15th of August, Saturday morning, we see a 4 ft southwest swell with a very long period of 20 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, packing a punch with 1929 energy. The problem is, it’s still onshore wind, and a long period swell like that can be tricky on a reef—tends to break too fast and close out. The afternoon gets cross-onshore, lumpy, and the energy skyrockets to 2332. That’s likely better for kitesurfing than paddling.

The 16th of August, Sunday morning, finally shows a glimmer: a 6 ft southwest swell, 17-second period, 1878 energy, with winds easing to 12 mph, still onshore. The wave comment flips to "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," and the score is a 1 out of 10. That’s the best we get, but it’s still not good. The afternoon goes back to cross-onshore, choppy, and scores zero.

After that, things fade back to small, onshore junk through the 19th. The 19th has the lightest winds of the whole period, 9 mph, but the swell drops to 3 ft to 3 ft with weak energy around 238.

So, the honest truth: there’s no standout window here. The best surf is probably the 16th of August morning, but it’s a gamble. For a beginner reef that’s already inconsistent, this is a long, poor run. Don’t get your hopes up, and keep an eye on the forecasts—things can change, but right now, it’s a flat spell with a side of wind.

Rusty.

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