Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s get into it.

Alright, the next couple of weeks are a tale of two halves for the region. The first week is a bit of a write-off, but the second week has some serious potential if you’re patient. The combined energy of all swells directed here starts weak and builds into strong territory by the end of the run.

We kick off on Sunday, July 19th, with a small 2ft SSW swell at Blue Bay, but it’s coming in at a short period and the wind is a light cross-onshore. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 77°. The surf is poor, and honestly, it stays that way for a long stretch. You’re looking at a solid gap of about five days with nothing worth getting wet for. Small, messy swell, often with onshore winds, and the combined energy (193) is weak. It’s a frustrating start. By Monday the 20th, the swell picks up to 5ft, and the energy jumps to 936 (moderate), but it’s still a marginal call with questionable conditions.

The wind really starts to howl from the SE by Thursday the 23rd, with 19 mph winds making it lumpy. The swell climbs to 7ft on Friday the 24th, but with a short period of 8 seconds and onshore wind, it’s just a washing machine. That pattern of poor conditions and onshore winds continues right through to the end of the first week and into the start of the second.

Now, the real standout action starts on Sunday, July 26th. The morning brings a clean 6ft SE swell with a light cross-offshore wind from the NNW, and the combined energy hits 662 (moderate). The afternoon is even better, with a very long-period 20-second SW groundswell at 2ft, and a glassy cross-offshore breeze. The water is still a touch warmer than normal. This is where it starts to get interesting.

The absolute best of the best is on Monday, July 27th, in the morning. Blue Bay is the pick. We’ve got a 5ft SSW groundswell with a long 17-second period, and the combined energy is a very strong 1949. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SW. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The swell direction matches the optimum direction from the south, so it’s going to set up properly on the reef. This is a solid session.

The following day, Tuesday, July 28th, is another standout. The morning is glassy with a 7ft SSW groundswell at a 17-second period, and the combined energy is a huge 2431. The afternoon holds at 7ft with glassy conditions. This is expert-level stuff, but it’s about as clean as you can get. The swell is over 8ft, so it’s for experienced surfers only.

After that, the quality drops. Wednesday, July 29th, still has good size (6ft to 7ft) and glassy moments in the afternoon, but the morning has a light cross-onshore. The combined energy is still strong. But by Thursday the 30th, the wind swings onshore again, and the final few days of the forecast are a write-off with strong onshore winds and rain, finishing with a 8ft SSW swell on Friday, July 31st that’s blown out by 16 mph winds.

So, to wrap it up: sit tight for the first week. The real action is the morning of Monday, July 27th, and the whole of Tuesday, July 28th. Those are the sessions to pencil in. The break is inconsistent, so don’t sleep on it when the window opens.

Rusty.

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