Boca del Abajo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got one spot on the radar for the next couple of weeks, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

Overall Pattern: The next 16 days are looking pretty grim overall. We’re dealing with a persistent run of onshore and cross-onshore winds that are going to keep things messy. There’s swell on the way, but the wind is the main character here, and it’s not a friendly one. The first proper surfable day doesn’t show up until late in the game, and even then, it’s a tough call.

The Forecast Run-Down: Right from the get-go, Sunday the 30th of August, we’ve got a fresh NNE breeze howling at 19 mph, making a mess of the 6 ft swell. That’s a cross-on wind at this break, so the surface is going to be lumpy and rough. That’s a solid “no thanks” from me. Monday and Tuesday aren’t any better, with the wind swinging straight onshore and the swell staying around 6 ft to 7 ft. The water is about average for this time of year, nothing weird there.

By Wednesday the 2nd of September, the wind picks up even more, hitting 25 mph onshore with a 8 ft swell. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The combined energy is moderate (893), but the wind is going to ruin it. Thursday and Friday see the wind ease a little, but it’s still onshore, and the swell drops back to 5 ft to 6 ft. The surf quality is still poor.

We hit a bit of a lull over the weekend of the 5th and 6th of September. The swell drops to 3 ft to 5 ft, and it’s cross-onshore chop. Not worth paddling out for. The following week, from the 7th to the 10th, is more of the same – onshore and cross-onshore winds, lumpy conditions, and swell sizes that are either too small or blown out.

The Only Standout (and it’s a long shot): The one small window of interest pops up on Friday the 11th of September. The morning shows a 7 ft swell from the north with a long period of 11 seconds and a strong combined energy of 1132. That’s a serious amount of water moving. The wind is still onshore at 22 mph, but the guidance says this spot is a reef and point break, which handles a long-period north swell better than a beach break would. The swell direction is a perfect match for the optimum. But the wind is the problem. It’s a classic case of “could be epic, could be a washing machine.” For experts only, realistically. Crowds are likely here, and with this much energy, it’s not a place for beginners.

The Verdict: Honestly, for the first 12 days, I’d save your energy. The wind is relentless. The only day that even whispers “maybe” is Friday the 11th of September, and that’s a gamble for the brave. If you’re a kite surfer, the onshore wind and moderate swell over the first week might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a tough run.

Rusty.

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