Boca del Abajo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get straight into it. Rusty here.

Look, I’ve gotta be honest with you—this 16-day run for our region is about as flat as a dead clam. We’re looking at a long stretch with nothing to get excited about right now. The whole forecast window is a massive dud for any real quality surfing. You’ll see a brief, very marginal flicker of something, but don’t book the day off.

We’ve got a significant gap of poor conditions stretching from now. The first hint of anything even slightly rideable doesn’t pop up until Sunday the 23rd of August. Even then, it’s not good.

Let’s get into it, from start to finish.

The first few days are hopeless. From Friday the 21st right through Saturday the 23rd morning, the wind is onshore and strong, whipping up a mess. The swell is tiny and weak, with energy readings under 300—really just a washed-out, bumpy chop.

Then on Sunday afternoon, August 23rd, there’s a brief window where things get *marginally* interesting. The Boca del Abajo (reef and point) setup starts to see a pulse of longer-period groundswell from the NNW at 4 ft. The period jumps to 14 seconds, giving it some grunt, and the combined energy pushes up to 855. That’s moderate energy. The wind shifts to a light breeze from the NNW at 6 mph, and it’s blowing onshore, which is not ideal but at least it’s only gentle. Because this is a point and reef break, that longer-period groundswell should wrap in a little better than it would at a beach. This is the only time in the whole outlook where the forecast even hints at something you could maybe get a slide on, but it’s still in that ‘marginal’ territory, so keep expectations low.

Monday morning, August 24th, has a similar look: 6 ft from the NNW with 12-second period and energy at 818. Winds are still onshore but light (9 mph). It’s still just marginal. By Monday afternoon and through the rest of the week, the wind picks up again, the period drops, and the call goes back to "poor surf conditions". The swell grows a little at times, but the wind wrecking it.

Later on, from around August 28th, we see a *bulk* of swell—8 ft to 10 ft from the NNE—but the wind is howling at 25-28 mph from the same direction, creating horrible, messy, blown-out conditions. At those sizes with that kind of wind, Boca del Abajo is going to be a washing machine. Frankly, for a consistent reef and point break like this, it looks way more suited to kite surfing than a paddle surf. The combined energy hits four-digit numbers (1068 to 1333), which is strong, but it’s all for nothing with that wind.

This flat, poor run carries right through the end of the forecast into the first week of September. If you see the swell pop, don’t chase it—the conditions won’t be there until something changes.

So there you have it. One very small, marginal window on Sunday the 23rd. Other than that, it’s a strike-out. Stay tuned, things can turn quick.

Rusty.

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