Boca del Abajo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Boca del Abajo.

Straight up, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this 16-day window looks tough. There’s no proper surf on offer until the very end, and most of the period is plagued by onshore wind. The water temp is sitting at 70°, which is normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re staring at the chop.

Boca del Abajo is a reef and point setup that needs a clean north-west swell to really fire. But the first week is a write-off. From Friday 3rd July all the way through to Friday 17th July, every session gets marked as poor. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, swinging from the northwest to the north and north-northeast, with speeds ramping up from a light 3 mph to a fresh 19 mph. The swell is small, period short – mostly 5 to 10 seconds – and the combined energy (424) on the first morning is moderate but the wind just kills it. That northwest wind is cross-onshore, so it’s messy. Saturday 4th July morning has a little bit of swell at 4 ft from the north, but that 6 mph cross-onshore breeze ruins it.

By Monday 6th July, the swell drops further and the wind stays onshore. The energy numbers drop into the weak range in the early days of July, with the 7th and 8th showing only 55 to 70 energy, and the swell is tiny – 3 ft with a period of just 5 to 6 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell. For a break that needs a good direction like northwest, this is all wrong.

The gap of poor conditions stretches a full two weeks until the last couple of days. Saturday 18th July morning is the only time things start looking interesting – and I mean just *interesting*, not perfect. The swell jumps up to 5 ft from the north-east, with a period of 6 to 7 seconds, and the combined energy comes back to moderate (279). The problem? We still have a 22 mph onshore wind. That’s a fresh breeze, dead onshore. For an exposed reef and point, that’s going to be blown out, chop city. The setup might look more appealing for kite surfing than paddle surfing if the wind keeps up like that.

So, the only true stand-out window I can point to, and even then it’s a long shot, is the Saturday 18th July period. The swell is slightly bigger, the energy is back, and if by some miracle the wind eases or swings offshore, the 5 ft from the north-east could make for some punchy lefts across the point. But right now, it’s a long-range promise, not a guarantee. For a break this exposed, you need that wind to drop.

Overall, it’s a tough run. Keep the board waxed and check back closer to the 18th – things could shift.

- Rusty

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