Boca del Abajo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. It’s not looking pretty, folks. We’ve got a solid run of swell showing up on the charts, but the wind is going to be our worst enemy for the foreseeable future. We’re looking at a long stretch where the surf is gonna be wild, messy, and pretty much a washout for anyone wanting clean waves.

Our main focus is Boca del Abajo, a serious reef and point break that demands your A-game. It’s an expert-only wave on a good day, and with this wind, it’s going to be unforgiving. The water temp is sitting at 73°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so that’s one small thing we’ve got going for us.

The first couple of days, Sunday and Monday, are a write-off. We’ve got onshore winds and surf in the 4ft to 5ft range. The swell energy is weak, hovering around 191 to 285, and the waves are gonna be short-period and messy. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

From Tuesday the 5th through to mid-week, the swell picks up a bit, reaching 6ft, with moderate wave energy in the 364-465 range. But the wind is cross-onshore and lumpy, which is just going to chop it all up. It’s not worth your time.

We get a bit of a lull in the wind on the 6th and 7th where it goes more onshore, but it’s still a fresh breeze and the swell stays around 6-7ft. The energy starts building, hitting 617, which is a sign of things to come, but the quality just isn’t there. It’s all just short-period wind swell, and with that constant pressure, it won't be any good.

The weekend of the 8th and 9th is more of the same. Wind is still onshore and blowing 25-30 mph. The swell is around 6ft, but it’s just a big, blown-out mess. You might see some bigger sets, but it’s going to be a battle.

The following week, starting Monday the 11th, the energy really starts to ramp up. We’re talking moderate to strong energy, climbing from 388 up to 857 by the 15th. The swell builds from 6ft up past 8ft. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still onshore the whole time. All this power, and it’s just going to be a giant, wind-blown, lumpy mess. It’s the kind of surf that’s more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers. This is a long stretch of poor conditions, over a week of it, with no let-up in sight.

The only thing that could change this is if the wind gods decide to give us a break. As it stands, there are no standout days. We are looking at a blank run for the next 16 days. It’s a tough one to swallow, but the data is the data.

Keep the boards in the car, wait for a change, and don’t force it. This one is a hard pass.

Rusty.

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