Boca del Abajo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next 16 days for Boca del Abajo.

First up, it’s a tough stretch ahead. The water’s sitting at 72°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only thing that’s comfortable. The problem is the wind. For the first few days, we’ve got a solid north wind blowing onshore, and that’s killing any chance of clean waves. The swell is small and weak – we’re talking about 3ft to 3ft from the north with a short, choppy period of 5 seconds and combined energy readings in the low double digits (65 to 83). That’s just messy, poor surf conditions. Don’t bother paddling out Thursday or Friday the 9th and 10th.

Saturday the 11th is even smaller, with energy dropping to 18 and 39. Still no good. Then Sunday the 12th brings a bit of a change. We see a longer-period NNW swell moving in at 11 seconds, with energy jumping to 273. That’s a moderate wave energy, and the size is around 3ft to 3ft. But again, the wind is onshore from the north and NNW, so it’s still going to be a bumpy, blown-out mess. The forecast says "poor surf conditions," and I’m not going to argue with that.

The next week, from Monday the 13th through to the 23rd, the wind stays stubbornly from the north-northeast, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and it gets stronger. Swell size builds, but it’s not the good kind of building. By Wednesday the 15th, we’re seeing 5ft to 5ft, but the period is short (5-6 seconds) and the wind is a fresh breeze at 35 km/h. The wave energy is moderate (110-177), but the conditions are lumpy and poor. This is a kite surfer’s setup, not a paddle surfer’s. The break is a reef and point, so it’s not ideal for that anyway.

From Thursday the 16th all the way through to the 23rd, the swell gets bigger – 8ft to 8ft – and the energy climbs into the strong range (607 to 761). The period is still short, around 8 seconds, and the wind is relentless onshore from the NNE at 30-40 km/h. The wave comment across every single one of these days is "poor surf conditions." On Thursday the 23rd, it’s 8ft with a fresh cross-onshore wind making it lumpy. That’s not good for anyone.

The only real standout in the whole 16-day window is the very end, on Friday the 24th. We get a 10ft swell from the north-northeast with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 1437 (strong to very strong wave energy). But here’s the kicker: the wind is still onshore at 40 km/h from the NNE. That’s a strong breeze, and at that size, on a reef and point break, it’s going to be a dangerous, ugly closeout. Only for absolute experts, and even then, it’s a gamble. The wave comment is still "poor surf conditions."

So, the honest truth: there’s no good surf on offer in this 16-day window. Not a single day where the wind and swell come together to make something clean. The gap is the entire period. It’s a brutally consistent run of bad conditions for this spot. Don’t hold your breath – forecasts can change, but this one’s looking grim.

Rusty.

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