Boca del Abajo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at a patchy picture for the next couple of weeks. Let’s be honest, there’s not much to get excited about for a while. The forecast starts with a bit of a dud.

Right now, through the 11th and 12th, we’ve got a decent sized swell rolling in at Boca del Abajo (reef and point), pushing 7 ft from the NNE. But the wind is howling straight onshore from the north at 22 mph, trashing it completely. The combined swell energy is moderate at 559, but with that wind, it’s a write-off. Water temp is sitting at 75°, which is pretty average for this time of year.

Saturday and Sunday morning look similar—still onshore wind, still messy. The first real sign of life comes on Sunday afternoon, September 13th. The swell drops back a bit to 5 ft from the north, but the wind swings around to a light SW breeze at 6 mph, going cross-offshore. That’ll clean things up considerably. The combined energy drops to 380, so it’s not powerful, but for a reef and point break, that lighter period (8 seconds) will offer some shape. This is the highlight of the first week—the only time the wind is genuinely friendly. It won’t be big, but it’ll be clean.

After that, we hit a long dry spell. From Monday the 14th all the way through to Friday the 25th of September, the conditions are persistently poor. The wind is almost constantly onshore, and the wave heights bobble around from tiny 2 ft up to a max of 6 ft, but it’s always getting chopped up. Even when the swell shows some energy—like on the 18th, with 6 ft from the north and combined energy near 830—the wind is a fresh 19 mph onshore. There’s a brief moment on the 24th and 25th where the wind goes light and cross or cross-off, but by then the swell is tiny, only 2 ft to 3 ft. Honestly, this is a two-week stretch of waiting.

The very end of the outlook shows a pulse of longer-period groundswell arriving on Saturday, September 26th. The swell jumps to 5 ft to 6 ft from the NNW with a very long period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is huge—over 1257. This is real power. But the catch is the wind is a moderate cross-onshore at 12-16 mph from the NE, making it choppy. That energy and period would be magic if the wind cooperated, but as it stands, it’s only a marginal call for the experts who might want to try and find a sheltered corner. Beginners, stay well away—that’s expert-only territory at over 5 ft, and the long period will make it dumpy on a point.

So, what have we got? Your one genuine standout for a clean wave is Sunday afternoon, September 13th. It’s small but clean, and that’s the best on offer for a long time. The big groundswell at the end of the month is promising, but it’s a long way off and the wind is a gamble. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts change, but right now, don’t rush to the water.

Rusty.

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