Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day mates, Rusty here. I’ve been all over the numbers for Arrieta and I’ll tell ya plain – this 16-day stretch looks like a real dud. We’ve got a long gap of nothing worth paddling out for until Monday the 14th, and even that’s a struggle. The water’s running a touch warmer than usual at 75°F, so that’s a nice swim but it ain’t helping the waves.

The story starts with a stubborn northerly wind – mostly cross-offshore, so the surface stays clean, but the swell’s just not there. Thursday 10th through Sunday 13th are all poor. There’s some size, up to 7ft on Saturday 12th, but it’s short-period windswell (8 seconds) with a fresh 18 mph cross-off breeze. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions” – and that’s the truth. With that wind and clean face, it’s kiteboarding weather, not paddle surfing.

Monday morning the 14th is the first hint of something. Glassy conditions with a 3 mph east wind – dead calm, beautiful. But the swell is only 4ft from the NNE at a short 8-second interval, and the combined energy is moderate (299). The report calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” For a sheltered, inconsistent reef like Arrieta that only breaks sometimes, it’s a 1 out of 10. If you’re desperate, you might snag a closeout or two.

Tuesday morning 15th is similar – 2ft from the NNW with a longer 11-second period, clean but tiny. Energy drops to 191. Ordinary again. By Tuesday afternoon, it’s back to poor with cross-shore chop.

From Wednesday 16th onward, it’s a rough go. Swell bottoms out at 1ft, then picks up Thursday 17th with 6ft from the NNE, but it’s short-period (7 seconds) with a stiff 22 mph cross-off breeze. Poor conditions all the way. There’s a little window Sunday 20th afternoon and Monday 21st morning with glassy conditions and 3ft swell, but the energy is weak (166-204) and it’s still “surfable but ordinary.” Not worth suiting up for.

The best of a weak lot is Monday morning 14th September at Arrieta – glassy, clean, and a pulse of swell. But it’s no standout, just the only thing that isn’t a total zero. Beginners might be okay since the swell’s under 5ft, but there’s no shape to it. For everyone else, keep the board in the car. That northwest swell around the 22nd to 24th has a 13-16 second period but it’s cross-shore and messy, and the waves are under 3ft – nah.

So bottom line, a long, dry run with no real highlights. Arrieta’s an inconsistent reef anyway, and the forecast has it locked in poor. Hopefully things turn around, ’cause it doesn’t usually stay this flat for long. But for now, save the wax.

Rusty.

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