Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me break down what we’re looking at for the next couple of weeks.

Well, I gotta be straight with you... this is a tough run. The whole 16-day window looks pretty grim for Arrieta. There’s no real standout, no day where you’d be stoked to paddle out. The swell is there, but the wind and conditions just aren’t playing ball. We’re looking at a solid 7 days from Wednesday the 22nd through to Tuesday the 28th where the surf is just... poor. After that, it stays marginal but not worth rushing for.

Let’s start with that first bit. Wednesday afternoon the 22nd, we’ve got a 6 ft swell from the north-northeast, but it’s a short period, only 7 seconds, and a 19 mph cross-shore wind is making it lumpy. The combined energy is weak (351). Water temp is 72°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual. It’s a no-go.

Thursday the 23rd, Friday the 24th, and into the weekend, the swell actually builds. Saturday morning the 25th sees 8 ft from the NNE, but with a 25 mph cross-shore wind, it’s messy, and the energy is moderate (873). That’s too big for beginners and with that wind, it’s a battle. Sunday the 26th the swell hits 10 ft in the morning, with a strong breeze making it a mess. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, the conditions are foul. The combined energy jumps to 1129 (strong), but it’s not surfable. By Sunday afternoon, the wind goes cross-off, so it’s clean, but the swell is still 8 ft and the period is short. It’s better, but still not great.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th see the swell drop to 7 ft and then 5 ft, with clean cross-off winds. The wind is offshore, which is a big positive, but the swell is short period and the energy is moderate (622 and 307). It’s clean, but the waves are just not shaping up well. You could get a few, but it’s a far cry from good.

After that, from Wednesday the 29th through to the end of the first week of August, the swell fades. We’re looking at 4 ft to 1 ft, and mostly clean conditions. On Tuesday the 4th of August, the swell direction shifts to the west-northwest, which is closer to the optimum (N), but the swell is tiny, only 1 ft, and the energy is very weak (67). The period is 9 seconds, which is a bit longer, but there’s just no power.

So, what’s the best of a bad bunch? Honestly, if I had to pick, it would be Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th. The winds are cross-off (clean), the swell is 7 ft dropping to 5 ft, and the energy is moderate. It’s still short period, so you’re not getting barrels, but it’s the cleanest you’ll see. For a more experienced surfer, those mornings might offer a few fun ones. But for the average punter, there’s nothing here that’s worth the drive.

This is a classic case of a stretch where the forecast just doesn’t line up. It’s a quiet spell. Don’t expect much, and if you do go, go with low expectations.

Rusty.

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