Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this outlook for Arrieta is a tough one. It’s a sheltered reef that needs a specific window, and over the next 16 days the conditions just don’t line up for any kind of decent session. There’s a long stretch of poor surf quality right through the first week and into the second, and you’ll be waiting until Thursday the 17th before you even see a “marginal” call.

Starting out, Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th are a write-off. Swell is around the 5ft to 5ft mark from the NNE, but with a short period of only 7 seconds and cross winds around 9 to 19 mph, it’s just lumpy chop. The combined energy is weak to moderate (352–305), and it’s pure frustration out there. Thursday the 10th doesn’t get better—swell drops to 4ft, period still 6–7 seconds, and the wind stiffens again (188–258 energy). Friday the 11th gives you a bit more size at 6ft from the NNE, and the wind swings to a cross-off from the N at 22 mph, keeping it clean. But the period remains short (7–8 seconds), and the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” The energy ticks up to 448–530, so there’s push, but it’s not coming together for Arrieta’s reef.

Saturday the 12th sees the biggest swell of this run—7ft from the N with a 8-second period, clean cross-off wind at 19 mph, and strong energy at 767. That’s expert territory, but even then, the commentary says “poor surf conditions.” Not the one. Sunday the 13th drops right back to 4–4ft, light winds, but cross and cross-on directions don’t help. The second week from Monday the 14th onwards stays flat or ordinary—small NNW swell in the 2ft to 4ft range, mostly cross-shore winds, and energy figures dropping into the low hundreds by Sunday the 20th (89). By that point, it’s barely worth a paddle.

The only slight flicker comes on Thursday the 17th (September) when the morning shows a 6ft NE swell at 8 seconds, clean cross-off wind at 16 mph, and energy at 513. The comment finally shifts to “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” scoring a 1 out of 10. That’s the closest thing we get to a standout, but it’s not a recommendation—just a heads-up that it’s the least bad day. Then on Saturday the 19th, there’s a brief window of 3–3ft NNW groundswell with an 11-second period and light cross-off wind (energy 190–230), described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Again, not a goer.

Arrieta is inconsistent at the best of times, and this 16-day stretch feels like a blank run. The reef is sheltered and needs a specific optimum swell from the N, but the dominant NNE wind and short-period chop keep killing the quality. I wouldn’t even bother suiting up until maybe the very end—Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd show a longer-period NNW swell (14–16 seconds) around 4ft to 5ft, with cross-off wind, but the energy is high (724–787) while the wave comment stays “marginal” or “poor.” That’s two weeks out, and forecasts can shift, but right now it’s a long wait with no good news.

Rusty.

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