Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you, it’s been a rough stretch for Arrieta and it’s going to stay that way for a while. The forecast shows a real dry spell with no decent surf on the cards for the first twelve days. The only faint glimmer of hope is a short window right at the very end, but it’s a long way off and comes with strings attached.

Looking at the whole 16 days, the conditions are just plain ugly. Swell is there, but it’s almost always accompanied by a strong cross-shore wind, lumpy chop, and the reports are all "poor surf conditions." There’s a week of 19 mph winds from the NNE and NE that’s going to trash any chance of clean waves. Combined swell energy values are nothing to write home about either, mostly in the moderate bracket, peaking at 667 on September 8th, but it’s all messy.

For the first week and a half, you’re not going to find anything worth paddling out for. This is a real quiet period for the spot. The water temp is sitting at 75°F at the start, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only thing going for it.

Now, the only thing that even gets a mention is the morning of Tuesday, September 15th. We see a 5 ft swell from the N, with a period of 8 seconds, and the wind is a clean cross-off shore from the N at 12 mph. The combined energy is 467, which is solid moderate. But it’s still a "marginal" call, and the swell is a bit short-period.

The afternoon of the 15th looks a bit bigger, with 6 ft from the N, but the period is a short 7 seconds. The morning of September 16th has a 6 ft swell from the NNE, again with cross-off winds and a 464 energy rating. The morning of September 17th also has a 6 ft swell from the NNE.

These are the only real standouts, but they are nine days away. You have to treat them as promising but not locked in. Also, that 6 ft wave is getting into the territory where it’s a bit much for beginners. The break is a reef, and it’s inconsistent, so you need to be patient. Crowds are possible here, so if a window does open, you might have some company.

The end of the run, from the 15th to the 17th, is the only time I’d even think about waxing the board. Otherwise, it’s a blank. For an inconsistent spot like Arrieta, this kind of run is more normal than not. You just have to wait for the next weather system to shift. Keep your eye on it, but don’t hold your breath.

- Rusty

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