Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this outlook for Arrieta is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for decent paddle surfing. We’ve got a solid run of poor surf conditions, with only a couple of days that even flirt with being worth a look, and even then, it’s marginal at best. The swell’s hanging around, but the wind is a real buzzkill.

Let’s break it down. From Saturday, August 8th, right through to the end of the window on Sunday, August 23rd, the story is largely the same. We’re looking at a persistent NNE swell, around 5 ft to 7 ft, with a short, weak period of 6 to 8 seconds. The combined wave energy, while often in the moderate range (300–583), is just not being given a chance to shine. The wind is a constant issue—mostly a fresh cross-off or cross-shore breeze from the N or NNE, blowing at 15 to 22 mph. That’s churning up the surface, making for lumpy, choppy conditions. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The one day that almost breaks the spell is Sunday, August 16th. The morning session sees a drop in the wind to a moderate 12 mph cross-off, with the swell at 6 ft, period 7 seconds, and a combined energy of 430. The report calls it “marginal,” and I’d agree. It’s the only time the surf is even given a score of 1 out of 10. It’s clean, but the swell is still short-period and a bit messy. With the swell over 5 ft, this isn’t one for beginners. For a more experienced surfer, it might be worth a look, but keep expectations low.

After that, we slide back into the same poor pattern. The swell eventually drops to 3 ft by the final weekend, with even less energy. For a reef break that’s inconsistent and sheltered, needing that optimum N swell direction, the wind is just never cooperating. The setup here is more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session, given the persistent cross-shore wind and clean, but bumpy, wave faces.

So, the honest truth? There’s no standout, no gem to chase. The best of a bad bunch is that Sunday morning, August 16th, but even that’s a long shot. This is one of those stretches where you’re better off waiting for the next system to roll through. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a flat run.

Rusty.

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