Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at the Arrieta outlook. Straight up, it’s a tough one. The entire 16-day window is a bit of a letdown for paddle surfers, with the first proper week and a half basically a write-off. The initial runs are all scoring a zero, with messy cross-shore winds and lumpy, poor conditions that don’t give you anything to work with. Even the swell energy is weak, with combined energy readings in the two and three-digit range — nothing to get excited about.

The real issue is the wind. For the first week, it’s howling from the NNE at 28 mph, dropping to 19 mph but still fresh and cross-shore. This reef break is sheltered, so it takes a clean, offshore wind to really turn on, and we’re not getting that. The swell is mostly short period, 8 seconds or less, meaning no real push or shape. Everything is just chopped up.

There’s a flicker of something on Saturday, 1 August. The wind drops right off to a gentle 9 mph from the north, giving a clean, cross-off breeze. The swell is 5 ft from the NNE, but combined energy is only 250 — still weak. The report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is as good as it gets here. The break is inconsistent, so you’ll be scratching for waves, but at least it’ll be clean. The water is sitting at 72°, with a 1° anomaly — that’s about average for the time of year, so nothing unusual there.

After that, the wind picks up again and the quality drops. From 4 August, the swell builds to 7 ft to 8 ft from the NNE, and combined energy climbs into the 600s and 700s, which is moderate to strong. But the wind is cross-shore, making it a lumpy mess. For a reef break, that’s not great. The period is still short at 7-8 seconds, so it’s not going to form well.

The last few days, from the 6th to the 8th, the wind finally goes light — 9 to 12 mph from the north, clean and cross-off. The swell holds at 7 ft to 8 ft, with combined energy in the 500 to 700 range. The report moves from “poor” to “marginal,” which is a step up. But it’s still short-period swell, and the break is inconsistent. For a more experienced surfer who knows the reef, this could be worth a look, but it’s not a standout. The 8 ft swell is getting into the “too big for beginners” territory, but for an advanced crew, it’s just about ok.

Honestly, if you’re looking to paddle, the best window is that Saturday morning, 1 August, when the wind drops and it’s clean. But the rest of the period is a long, slow grind of cross-shore winds and weak, short-period swell. If the wind was offshore, the bigger swells later in the window would be cranking, but with the wind coming from the NNE or N, it’s cross-shore at this sheltered spot. It’s a real shame.

For a setup like this with consistent swell but poor wind and quality, some might look at it for kite surfing rather than paddling, especially on those days with strong wind and larger swell. But for the regular surfer, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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