Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down this 16-day window for what we’ve got. To be straight with you, this stretch looks flat and ugly more often than not. The first real chance of something decent doesn’t show until over a week out, so we’re looking at a big gap of poor to zero surf before a late pulse tries to get going.

We start off Thursday the 10th with a 5ft swell from the NNE, but it’s coming in at a weak 7-second period with a messy cross-shore wind at 16 mph. The combined energy is weak at 223, and the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. Friday the 11th is a bit bigger, 6ft, but that wind is still howling at 22 mph, and the period is a pathetic 6-7 seconds. The energy climbs to 438, but conditions are still rated poor. Saturday the 12th holds around 7ft from the N, period still short at 8 seconds, and that wind is still a fresh breeze. The energy (554) is moderate, but it’s not surfable. This continues day after day with mostly poor surf and cross-offshore winds that look clean on paper but just aren’t blending with the swell to make anything rideable. Sunday the 13th finally sees a “1” score, but the swell has dropped to 5ft and the wind goes light SSE (cross-on) in the afternoon – not ideal.

The following week is largely the same. There’s a slight uptick on Monday the 14th with a 2ft swell but a nice long 13-second period from the NNW, giving us clean conditions and moderate energy (296). It’s surfable but tiny. That’s the best we’ve seen so far, but it’s hardly a standout. The rest of the week stays small and short-period, with scores stuck at zero or one. We get a bump on Wednesday the 16th with 5-5ft from the NE, but short period (7s) and fresh breeze killing the quality. By Sunday the 20th, there’s a 3ft with light wind, but it’s still from the NNE at 7 seconds – ordinary at best.

Then, nearly two weeks in, we get the only real standout of the entire forecast. On Tuesday the 22nd of September, the swell jumps to 7ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy skyrockets to 1177, which is strong. The wind is a light gentle breeze from the NNE, giving us a gentle cross-shore. The wave comment calls this “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” and scores it a 2, which is actually the highest score of the whole window. For context, this is an advanced-level reef break, and at 7ft it’s getting into too-big-for-beginners territory, but for anyone with experience, that energy is real. The swell direction from the NNE is coming from the north, while this spot’s optimum swell direction is N, so it’s slightly off the ideal but not terrible. The point is, this is the only time the energy and size come together to offer anything with punch. Wednesday the 23rd holds at 7ft (energy 629) with a clean cross-offshore from the NNW, but that’s a step down.

So, the honest call here: this is a dead stretch for most of the time. The standout is without a doubt Tuesday the 22nd at Arrieta (Arrieta) . Expect 7ft from the NNE, strong energy (1177), and light winds keeping it clean. It’s a reef break that’s inconsistent, but when it fires it’s for the advanced crew. The crowd factor is a concern too – this spot is marked as “sometimes” crowded, and a good swell after a long lull will likely bring a crew out, so expect company. The water temp anomaly is average for this time of year, so no worries about a cold snap. After that, Wednesday the 23rd offers a smaller but still clean 7ft option, but the magic is on Tuesday.

Other than that one window, the 16-day period is a wash. For kite surfers, the consistent wind and lack of quality swell might look more interesting than it is for us paddle surfers.

Stay patient, boys. This isn’t one for the logbook.

Rusty.

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