Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and sit down for this one, 'cause I've gotta be straight with you. The outlook for Arrieta over the next 16 days is a tough pill to swallow. We've got swell on the charts, but the conditions just aren't cooperating. This is a real tale of "what could have been."

Let's talk about the water temp first. For the first session we've got, the water is sitting at 75°F, which is a touch warmer than what we normally see this time of year. A nice little anomaly of 3°F warmer, so the rubber might stay in the car a bit longer.

The first real chance to get wet is Wednesday morning, the 19th of August. It's not a total write-off, with a clean 3ft swell from the north. The energy is weak though, only 147 (combined energy of all swells directed here). The wind is a gentle cross-off at 9 mph, which is okay, but the whole setup just feels ordinary. It's surfable, but you won't be calling your mates.

From there, it's a long, bleak stretch. The wind picks up and the quality drops. For the rest of August and into the first bit of September, we're looking at a constant stream of "poor surf conditions." The wind stays mostly cross or cross-off, but it's a moderate to fresh breeze, often 15 to 22 mph, making a mess of things. The swell does build, hitting 5ft to 5ft on the 21st, but with a short period of 6 to 7 seconds and a fresh breeze, it's just choppy and ugly. The energy climbs into the moderate range, hitting 255 (combined energy of all swells directed here) on the 21st, but it's all for nothing. The wind just wrecks it.

Things get a bit more interesting, but not in a good way, towards the end of the month. From the 25th of August onward, the swell gets bigger, pushing 6ft on the 26th, and then really firing up on the 27th with a 8ft to 8ft north-northeast swell. The energy jumps into the strong range, hitting 764 and 809 (combined energy of all swells directed here). But here's the rub: the wind is a strong breeze at 25 mph, blowing straight cross-shore and creating a messy cross-chop. For a reef break that's already inconsistent, this is a recipe for a washing machine, not a wave. This is more of a kite surfer's playground than a paddle surfer's dream. Anything over 8ft is for experts only anyway, and with these winds, it's a no-go zone.

The swell stays solid through the 28th, 29th, and into the 30th, with the 8ft swell on the 28th having energy at 848 (combined energy of all swells directed here). But the wind, while it backs off a touch, is still a fresh breeze. The pattern is relentless: a solid north/northeast swell, but it's almost always paired with a cross-shore wind that kills the quality.

The final days of the window, from the 1st of September onwards, the swell drops a bit, but the wind stays stubborn. We're still looking at 5ft to 7ft swells, but the cross-shore wind is a constant companion. The energy numbers are still moderate to strong, but it doesn't matter. The conditions are just too rough.

So, what's the final word? Honestly, there isn't a single standout day in this 16-day forecast. Every recommendation is a "zero" score. The swell is there, but the wind is our enemy. This is a classic case of "good on paper, terrible in the water." If you're desperate, Wednesday morning the 19th is your best bet for a clean but small wave. Otherwise, keep your board in the bag and wait for the next system to pass through. This area tends to be fairly consistent, so it won't stay poor forever, but this run is a definite blank.

Rusty.

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