Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I gotta be straight with you – we’ve got a tough stretch ahead for Arrieta. This is a sheltered reef set-up that needs the right conditions to really sing, and over the next 16 days, the stars just aren’t aligning.

The whole run starts on Friday, September 4th, and right out of the gate, we’re looking at a 3 ft north swell with a short, weak 7-second period. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, but the wave energy is weak (103) and the water is a touch warmer than normal at 75°, but the overall call is "poor surf conditions." Honestly, it’s a frustrating start. The swell direction (N) is not the optimum from the north that this spot really wants, and the period is too short to get any real shape off the reef.

Saturday the 5th is a real mixed bag. Morning drops to just 1 ft, and while the afternoon picks up to 5 ft from the NNE, the period flatlines to a pathetic 6 seconds. The wind is cross-off, but that short-period swell is just going to be a bumpy, weak mess. The energy is moderate (182), but it’s not surfable quality.

Sunday the 6th is more of the same – 5 ft north swell, but still only 6 seconds. The energy is climbing (219-285), but the wave comment is still "poor surf conditions." This is a pattern that just keeps going. The wind stays cross-off for a lot of the mornings, which is a tease, but that short period kills it.

Then we hit the first real “no-go” zone. From Monday, September 7th, through to Wednesday, September 16th, the wind goes predominantly cross-shore or cross-off, and the swell height fluctuates between 5 ft and 6 ft. The energy gets strong, hitting 478 and even 700 at one point, but the period is stuck in the 6-8 second range. The wind is often a fresh breeze, creating lumpy, cross-chop conditions. The wave comment is persistently "poor surf conditions." This is a solid 10-day stretch of raw, unshaped, wind-affected slop. For a sheltered reef like Arrieta, this is a whole lot of nothing.

The only faint glimmer comes on Thursday, September 17th, with a drop in wind to a moderate breeze and a clean morning. The swell is 4 ft from the NNE with a 7-second period – still short, but the energy is moderate (200). It’s the best we’ll see, but it’s a very low bar. The wind is clean, so the surface might be glassy, but the waves will be weak and lacking any real punch.

After that, the last few days of the forecast (September 18th and 19th) are a drop-off. The swell shrinks back to 1 ft to 3 ft with weak energy.

So, to cut it short: the whole 16-day window is a write-off. There are no standouts, no days to circle on the calendar. The conditions are consistently poor, and the swell never gets the right period or direction to work with Arrieta’s reef. It’s a frustrating blank run, but in this area, when the trades are onshore and the swell is short, it’s more normal than not. Keep the board in the car, but don’t rush to the water. The forecasts can change, but right now, this is a solid 16 days of waiting.

Rusty.

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