Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Morning folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this 16-day run for Arrieta is a bit of a mixed bag, and honestly, it starts out pretty grim. The first couple of days are just plain poor, with messy conditions and no real push. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing happening until we hit that sweet spot around Wednesday, September 23rd.

The initial outlook is rough. We’re looking at small, weak surf to start, with energy levels in the low hundreds (160-220 range) and short, choppy periods around 7-8 seconds. It’s all cross-off winds, which is something, but the waves are just too small and weak to care. We go through this dull spell from the 16th through the 19th. Then the 20th, 21st, and 22nd are just as unremarkable—small, slow, and weak, with marginal surf at best. There’s a decent window of glassy conditions on the 22nd, but we're only talking about ankle-to-knee high dribble.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. On Wednesday, September 23rd, Arrieta finally wakes up. We see a solid jump in the swell energy, hitting 675 in the morning and holding strong through the day. The wind goes calm and glassy, and we get that clean, lined-up NW groundswell. The period jumps up to 15-16 seconds—that’s a proper, long-period groundswell. It’s a raw, clean push of waves, and the size is around 3-4 feet. This is easily the standout of the whole period. The northwest direction is also almost exactly what this reef wants. As the week progresses, the 24th and 25th still have decent energy (around 500-600 range) but that long period leaves the waves a bit inconsistent. It's still surfable, but the earlier days are the pick.

There’s a bit of a downward trend again as we go into the final stretch. By the 26th, we have another pulse of energy (637-802 range) with that long NW swell, but the winds start to become more cross-off and there’s a bit of question about the tide. It’s a “good surf” on the 26th morning, but not as clean as the 23rd. Then the 27th and 28th are back to marginal, small conditions. The 29th and 30th are poor again, with energy dropping off the cliff into the low hundreds and even double digits by the end. October 1st is a write-off.

So, the verdict? For the days that are truly worth it with clean conditions and a decent swell, you're looking at Wednesday the 23rd and maybe Thursday the 24th as the clear standouts. Arrieta is a sheltered reef break, so it needs careful tide, but these days it's all there. It’s not a huge swell, but the quality of that groundswell and the clean wind makes it the best on offer. The late period on the 26th is also promising but with a bit more uncertainty.

Oh, and the water is sitting at 75°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—about two degrees up, so it’s noticeable but nothing crazy.

Keep it on your radar, but don’t hold your breath for the rest of the window. The surf is small, inconsistent, and mostly poor—classic for this time of year, but the 23rd gives us a real taste of what this break can do.

Rusty, out.

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