Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Arrieta.

Honestly, this outlook is a tough one to write. There’s surf on the charts, but every single wave in the 16-day window is marked as poor surf conditions. I’m not seeing a single standout window where everything clicks for a good paddle. It’s a long stretch of cross-shore and cross-off winds, mostly from the north-northeast, with a solid combo of moderate to fresh breezes that just won’t let up. The swell sticks around, but the wind kills it.

We start off on Wednesday, 15 July, with tiny 2ft to 3ft windswell from the north, period of 5-8 seconds, and a cross-shore NNE breeze at 16 mph. Combined energy is weak (79 to 111). The water temperature is about average for the time of year here. The next few days, Thursday through Saturday, the swell builds to 5ft, then 6ft, and the energy climbs into the moderate range (163 to 370), but that cross-shore wind stays fresh, 19 to 22 mph, making it lumpy and messy. Not a wave you want to fight for.

From Sunday, 19 July, through to Tuesday, 28 July, the wind shifts to a cross-off direction from the north, which cleans up the surface a bit. The swell stays in the 5ft to 8ft range, with periods around 7 to 8 seconds, and the combined energy gets strong, peaking at 962 on Thursday, 23 July morning. The problem is, even though it’s clean, the guidance tells me this is a sheltered reef break and the optimum swell direction is from the north. The swell is coming from north-northeast most of the time, which is not ideal for how this break likes to line up. Plus, the break is inconsistent, so you’ll be sitting around waiting for the few good ones. When the swell pushes over 8ft, like on Thursday, 23 July morning, it’s expert-only territory. With the crowds sometimes around, it’s not a great bet for a quality session.

The last few days, from 28 July onward, the swell drops back to 4ft to 6ft, but the wind swings back to cross-shore, and the lumpy chop returns. The energy drops off too.

Bottom line: There’s no green light in this 16-day window for Arrieta. The consistent swell is there, but the wind and the direction never align to give us good surf. It’s one of those stretches where you’re better off waiting for the next forecast update. Forecasts can change, so don’t write it off completely, but for now, I’d leave the board in the rack.

Rusty.

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