Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Arrieta over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at a pretty grim run for the first week and a half. The numbers tell a story of persistent cross-shore winds, often up to a fresh 19 mph, which will be putting a nasty lumpy cross-chop on the surface. The swell energy is weak to moderate, with a combined energy reading of 161 on the Monday afternoon, dropping to barely 71 on the Tuesday. That’s not going to produce anything worth paddling out for. The swell direction is mostly NNW to NNE, but with a short period of 5-9 seconds, it’s all wind-affected and messy. Even though the swell height builds to 7 ft by Friday the 17th, the wind is just ruining it. The water temperature is a touch warmer than normal at 73°, but that’s about the only positive right now.

The first real glimmer of hope appears on Saturday the 18th. The wind swings to north, turning cross-offshore, and the forecast shows clean surf. The swell is still strong at 7 ft to 7 ft with a combined energy of 465 to 516, but the period is still short (8 seconds), so it’s going to be a bit fat and not have that proper groundswell grunt. Still, clean surf is a major positive, and this is the best the week has to offer. For a surfer, this is the window to look at. At this size, it’s pushing into only for experts territory if it gets a bit bigger, but with the clean conditions, it might be manageable for a strong intermediate.

From Sunday the 19th through to the 22nd, the swell dips a bit (4 ft to 5 ft) and the winds stay cross-off, but the energy is low (158 to 271). It’s clean, but just small and weak. The stand-out event, and the only one I’d really mark on the calendar, is the morning of Thursday the 23rd. The swell hits 8 ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 748. The wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off. That’s a solid, powerful, clean swell. The only caveat is that Arrieta is a reef break that is inconsistent, so you might sit there for a while between sets. Still, if you’re an advanced surfer, that’s your day. The swell direction is NNE, and the optimum swell direction for Arrieta is N, so it’s not a perfect match, but it’s close enough to get some good lines.

After that, the wind goes cross again on the 26th and 28th, bringing back the chop, so that Thursday the 23rd is the real highlight. The rest is a write-off for a paddler, but if you've got a kite, that whole first week with strong cross-shore winds and building swell would be a playground.

Rusty.

Read more