Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Arrieta for the next couple of weeks. It’s a tricky one right now—this reef break is inconsistent and needs the right conditions, and for the bulk of the forecast, it’s just not firing. The water’s sitting at 75°, about 2° above average for this time of year, so it’s a touch warm but nothing wild.

We’re looking at a pretty blank run until Monday the 14th. There’s some swell size early on, like Saturday the 12th with 7ft from the north, but the wind is a stiff 19 mph cross-offshore and the quality is poor. Same story Sunday the 13th—5ft north swell but still not coming together. The combined wave energy is moderate at 536 and 351 respectively, but it’s not translating to anything worth paddling out for.

Monday morning the 14th finally offers a flicker of hope. It’s small at 3ft from the north-northeast, but the wind swings light offshore from the northwest at just 3 mph, leaving clean peaks. The energy is moderate (252) and the waves are surfable, but it’s very ordinary. This is the best we get early on, but it’s nothing to get excited about.

Tuesday the 15th drops back to 2ft with a 12-second period—a nice long-period groundswell, but it’s weak energy (190) and the wind is cross-offshore. The rest of the week stays poor, with Wednesday the 16th building back up to 5ft by the afternoon but getting chopped by strong cross-shore winds at 19 mph. By Thursday the 17th, we’ve got 7ft north-northeast swell and strong energy at 606, but it’s blown out with a fresh breeze.

The standout across the whole period—if you can wait—is Sunday the 20th. It’s still small, only 4ft dropping to 4ft, but everything aligns: glassy conditions with no wind in the morning and a dead calm in the afternoon, clean faces, and moderate energy in the 291 to 375 range. Swell direction is north, which isn’t Arrieta’s optimum from the north, but the cleanliness will make it the most fun session of the fortnight. Crowds are possible here, so don’t expect it empty.

The second week gets more promising but less certain. Monday the 21st brings a 17-second groundswell—very long period—at 3ft, but it’s onshore and messy. Tuesday the 22nd sees 5ft from the north-northwest with a 13-second period pushing energy up to 844, but the cross-shore wind keeps it poor. By Wednesday the 23rd, the swell hangs in at 5ft with moderate energy (745) but it stays ordinary. After that, the surf fades again through to the 27th, with energy dipping as low as 78 on Sunday morning—just weak leftovers.

Honestly, if you’re kitesurfing, the windy, chop-filled days like Thursday the 17th might look interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a long wait for a couple of glassy small-wave windows. The best call is Sunday the 20th—don’t sleep on it. Until then, the board stays on the racks.

Rusty.

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