Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got the Arrieta outlook for you.

Right off the bat, I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough stretch for surf around here. The guidance tags Arrieta as a sheltered reef that’s inconsistent, and when it does get swell, it’s a spot for advanced crew only. But looking at the numbers, the wind just won’t let up for the foreseeable future. For the first several days, strong northerly breezes, often cross-shore, are whipping through, and the water temperature is sitting at 72°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year – a little above average, but nothing crazy.

The whole first week, from Tuesday the 21st right through to the weekend, has clean-looking conditions in the afternoons, but the surf quality is rated poor across the board. The swell is from the north-northeast, mostly in the 6 ft to 7 ft range, with a short period of 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s windswell, not a proper groundswell. The combined energy (515 to 562) is moderate, but it’s not doing anything special here. The wind is always cross or cross-off with a strong breeze, so it’s messy and lumpy, especially in the mornings. Not worth paddling out for.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see a jump in size – 10 ft swell – but that’s a red flag. That’s expert-only territory, and with the wind cranking from the north-northeast at 25 to 28 mph, it’s going to be a total washout. The combined energy hits four digits (1084 and 1107), which is strong, but the wind is cross-shore and creating a nasty cross-chop. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

After that, the swell slowly drops through the end of July and into the start of August, but the wind stays stubbornly from the north or north-northeast, 16 to 25 mph, always cross or cross-off. The wave heights hover around 5 ft to 7 ft, with the same short period, and the surf quality never improves. There’s a brief window around Monday the 3rd of August where the swell fades to nearly nothing – 1 ft – with a longer period of 9 seconds from the northwest, but that’s barely a ripple. Then on Tuesday the 4th, it picks up again to 6 ft to 6 ft, but the same story: short period, cross-shore wind, and poor quality.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. The whole 16-day run is a gap with no real surf on offer. The best I can say is the afternoons from Wednesday the 22nd through Friday the 24th, and again from the 29th to the 31st, have clean cross-off winds, but the swell is just too weak and short-period to make the reef work. If you’re desperate, you could check those windows, but don’t expect much. This is a classic case of a sheltered spot getting shut down by persistent northerly winds. It’s a blank run, and that’s just how it goes here sometimes.

Rusty, signing off.

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