Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee. Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our patch. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. The only spot that’s even on the menu is Arrieta, and it’s going to be a battle with the wind and conditions for most of the next two weeks.

The overall vibe for the next 16 days is pretty grim. We’re looking at a whole lot of "poor surf conditions" stamped across the forecast. The wind is relentless, mostly coming from the north and northeast, which is cross or cross-offshore here. It’s just not lining up. There's a serious gap with nothing worth paddling out for until we start looking at the second week, and even then, it's a matter of picking the least worst option.

Let’s break it down chronologically. September 4th through to the 10th is a write-off. We see small swell, mostly under 5 ft, with a short, weak period of 6-8 seconds. The wind is howling at 12-18 mph from the N or NNE, creating lumpy, messy conditions. On the 6th (Sunday afternoon) the swell jumps to 5 ft but the period is a terrible 6 seconds. By the 9th and 10th (Wednesday and Thursday), the swell is pushing 6 ft to 7 ft, but the wind is a strong cross-shore from the NNE at 18 mph. The combined wave energy hits three-digit figures (817 on the 9th morning, 794 on the 10th afternoon), making it a lumpy, chunky mess. This is more of a kite-surfing session than a paddle-surfing one. Stay on the beach.

Then we hit a stretch where the strength drops but the quality doesn’t improve much. From Friday the 11th through to the 16th, the swell stays small to moderate (2 ft to 5 ft) with an average period. The wind backs off a touch but is still a problem, staying mostly cross or cross-off. The only sliver of hope comes on Wednesday the 16th afternoon, where we see a 5 ft swell from the north with a 7-second period and *clean* conditions thanks to a cross-off wind. But it’s still a marginal call.

Now, if you’re looking for something to mark on your calendar, look at the last few days. Thursday the 17th morning brings a 6 ft swell from the NNE, and on Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th, the swell settles at a consistent 5 ft to 6 ft from the north with a slightly better 9-second period. The wind is still a moderate cross-shore, so it won’t be perfect, but the combined energy sits in the 400-500 range, showing there’s some weight behind it. For Arrieta, a reef break that’s sheltered and inconsistent, this is about as good as it gets on this forecast. The optimum swell is from the north, so the direction is spot on. A 5 ft swell on a reef with a moderate cross-shore won’t be the glassy A-frame of your dreams, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. Just know the water is running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 75°.

The bottom line: Arrieta is all we’ve got, and it’s a long wait for a shot at something half-decent. The period between September 4th and 15th is a near-total blank. For an inconsistent spot like this, a stretch like this isn’t abnormal. Keep your eyes on the 17th through to the 19th for the nearest thing to a surfable window.

That’s it from me. Keep your stick on the wax.

Rusty.

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