Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Arrieta. This is a reef set-up, sheltered, and it likes swell from the north. The water temp is running about 73°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year—nothing unusual.

Honestly, the whole 16-day outlook is a rough one. The swell shows up, but the quality just isn’t there. From Sunday the 2nd through the first week, we’ve got a lot of wind—mostly cross-off from the north, blowing 18 to 25 mph. That’s a fresh breeze, and while it keeps the surface clean-looking, the wave report says “poor surf conditions” every single time. Swell is mostly from the NNE and NE, running 4 ft to 8 ft, but the period is short—only 6 to 8 seconds. That’s wind swell, not groundswell. The combined energy starts at 190 (weak) and climbs into the 400s and 500s (moderate), but it’s not translating into good waves. The direction isn’t matching the optimum north swell, so Arrieta isn’t really firing.

Into the second week, it’s the same grind. Wind stays strong, swell holds around 5 ft to 8 ft, and the period never gets above 8 seconds. There’s a spike in energy around the 15th and 16th of August, with combined energy hitting 941 (strong) and swell at 8 ft, but that’s getting big for a reef that’s inconsistent. At that size, with short period and cross-off wind, it’s going to be a messy, bumpy affair. For a break rated for advanced surfers that only breaks sometimes, you need clean, long-period swell with light wind. We’re not getting that.

No standout sessions here. No day where the stars align. The wind is always up, the swell is short and lumpy, and the direction is off. If you’re into kite surfing, this setup might look fun—strong cross-off wind and plenty of chop—but for paddle surfing, it’s a hard pass. The whole 16 days is a stretch of poor surf quality. Arrieta can be a gem, but this forecast is a dry spell. It doesn’t usually stay flat forever, but for now, I’d say sit this one out.

Rusty.

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