Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking in the water at Arrieta.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is littered with “poor surf conditions” – that’s just the reality of it. The swell is coming in from the North and North-Northeast, but the wind is a constant challenge. For a reef break that’s sheltered and needs the optimum swell from the North, the wind is almost always a cross-off or cross-shore, and it’s howling. There’s no real standout, clean, glassy window to get excited about. The water is sitting at 73°F which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re getting frustrated.

The first few days of August are a write-off. Saturday the 1st through Monday the 3rd, you’re looking at 4ft to 6ft of short-period, weak windswell, but it’s all under a stiff Northerly breeze. The combined energy is weak to moderate (217 to 362), but the wind is just ruining it. The “clean” label in the data is deceiving – it’s clean in the sense of no rain, but it’s not clean surf. It’s cross-off wind, which is better than onshore, but it’s still not the offshore glass we want.

Things get a little more interesting around Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th. The swell starts to build. On Thursday morning, we’re looking at 7ft from the North-Northeast with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 586. That’s moderate wave energy. The wind is a cross-off 16 mph from the North, which is about the best we see all period. It’s still not perfect, but it’s the closest thing to a window. The swell is getting up there though – over 5ft, so it’s starting to get a bit much for beginners, and the cross-off wind will make it a bit tricky to get into the lineup.

Then Friday the 14th afternoon, the swell hits 8ft from the North-Northeast, with an 8-second period and a combined energy of 818. That’s getting into strong wave energy territory. The wind is a cross-off 16 mph from the North, and the surf is described as “marginal” – the first time it’s not a total zero. This is the best on offer, but I’m not getting excited. The wind is still moderate, and the swell is a bit lumpy.

The real problem is the weekend of the 15th and 16th. The swell goes huge – 10ft on Saturday morning, with a 9-second period and a combined energy of 1265. That is very strong wave energy. But this is now a 8ft+ swell, which is expert-only territory. The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, which will turn that big swell into a messy, lumpy, dangerous beast. This is a reef break, and a big, messy north swell on a reef is not a fun paddle. For a smaller, more sheltered spot like Arrieta, that’s just too much raw power.

So, the bottom line: there is no day in this 16-day stretch that I’d recommend you go out of your way for. The Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th have the best chance of a few waves, but it’s still a gamble. You’d be surfing a moderate-sized, short-period swell under a cross-off breeze. The surf is “poor” for a reason. The forecast is pretty reliable near-term, and the long-range looks even worse. I’d say sit this one out. The sea will come back to life eventually.

- Rusty

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