Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Arrieta.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one. The swell is there, but the wind just won’t play nice for most of the period. We’ve got a solid run of waves coming in, but the conditions are going to keep things challenging.

The first real opportunity we see is a bit of a gamble. We’ve got a pulse of energy building from Thursday the 23rd of July, with a 6ft swell from the NNE, but a strong 19 mph north wind is going to make it feel messy. The combined energy is moderate (376), but the quality is poor. It’s not the one to get excited about.

Things look a little better on the weekend. Saturday the 25th of July has some potential. The swell is up to 8ft from the NNE, with a combined energy pushing into the strong range (904). The wind is a cross-offshore from the north, so the faces are going to be reasonably clean. But with that size, this is for the experienced crew only. Too big for beginners, and the 8-second period means it’s a windswell, not a classic groundswell.

The cleanest conditions we’ll see in the near term look to be from Sunday the 26th of July through to Tuesday the 28th of July. The wind stays cross-offshore from the north, and the swell drops steadily from 8ft to 5ft. Combined energy drops from a strong 1015 down to a moderate 235. It’s rideable, but the wave quality is still rated as poor, and the period is short. It’s the kind of surf you take if you’re desperate.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. From Wednesday the 29th of July through to the end of the first week of August, the swell drops off significantly. We’re looking at waves in the 5ft to 6ft range, but the wind stays strong and cross-onshore for most of it. The combined energy drops to the 200-300 range—weak to moderate. There’s a noticeable gap of several days where the score is a flat zero. It’s a real bummer.

The best chance for a surf in this whole window is a long-range call for Sunday, the 2nd of August. The swell pushes back up to 6ft from the NNE, with a combined energy of 442 (moderate). The wind is a lighter 12 mph from the north, giving us a cross-offshore flow. The report even calls it "marginal" rather than "poor," which is the best we get. But being 10 days out, take it with a grain of salt. The swell period is still a short 7 seconds, so it’s not going to be a world-class wall.

Arrieta is a sheltered reef break, so it needs that specific N swell direction to work best. The guidance says the optimum is from the north, and we get that, but the short period and the persistent, strong NNE wind just ruin the potential. For a reef break, a long-period groundswell would be the dream, but we’re not getting that here.

Honestly, with this much wind and such a short-period swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the forecast. The clean faces are there, but the quality just isn't for traditional surfing.

There’s a couple of days in the second week where the swell period jumps to 11 seconds, but the wave height drops to 3ft and the wind is still howling. Not worth the paddle out.

Keep your eyes on that Sunday, the 2nd of August. It’s the only glimmer of a proper session in the whole 16 days.

Rusty.

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