Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. To be straight with you, this is a tough run for Arrieta. The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for decent surfing. The conditions are just not cooperating – the wind is a mess and the swell quality is poor. There are no real standout days at all, and the first 14 days are all rated zero for a reason. The first hint of anything surfable doesn’t come until Monday the 7th of September, but even then it's only marginal. So we’re looking at a long gap of over a week from the start with nothing on offer. It’s a frustrating outlook, but the swell and wind just aren’t lining up.

Let’s break it down. The first time we see any wave energy worth mentioning is around Friday the 28th of August, with a 7 ft swell from the NNE, but it’s a short period of 6 seconds and the wind is a strong cross-shore at 25 mph. The combined energy hits 326 (moderate) but it’s all messy and lumpy – not for paddling. This pattern continues right through the end of August and into early September. The swell sticks around, even getting to 8 ft from the north on Saturday the 29th with 757 energy (moderate to strong), but again, the wind is a fresh cross-shore making it ugly. That kind of size with that wind is more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so nothing wild there.

The best chance for a surf comes very late in the window. On Wednesday the 9th of September, we get a glimpse of something better. The morning shows a 2 ft swell from the NNW with a period of 10 seconds and a light cross-offshore breeze (9 mph). The combined energy is 294 (moderate). The conditions are described as "surfable waves but very ordinary." It’s not a classic, but it’s the cleanest and most rideable forecast in the whole outlook. The swell direction is NNW, which is a slight improvement for Arrieta’s setup, though its optimum is N, so it’s a bit off. Still, a gentle breeze and clean conditions make it the pick of a very poor bunch.

Then on Thursday the 10th of September, there’s a 2 ft swell from the WNW with a very long period of 14 seconds. That’s a groundswell, and combined with a light wind (6 mph), the combined energy is 392 (moderate). For a reef break like Arrieta, that long period could produce some nice lines, but it’s small and the wave comment is still "surfable but very ordinary." It’s promising, but it’s well over a week away, so treat it as a long-range maybe.

In summary, there’s no true standout. The whole period is a frustrating mix of either too much wind, too short period, or just plain messy surf. The few days around the 9th and 10th of September are the only ones worth eyeing, but keep your expectations low. The forecast can change, and it’s not often it stays this poor for this long, so don’t lose hope.

Rusty.

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