Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Arrieta.

Truth be told, the next 16 days are a tough watch for surfers. We’ve got a long dry spell ahead, with nothing worth paddling out for until maybe the very end of the run. The whole first week and into the second is plagued by persistent cross-shore winds and short-period, junky windswell. The water is about 74°, a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.

Kicking off from Thursday 13 August right through to at least Sunday 23 August, the story is the same: small, weak, poor-quality waves. The swell hovers between 3ft and 6ft, mostly from the NNE, but the period is a low 6 to 8 seconds – that’s just windchop. That combined energy reading hangs around 140 to 370, which tells you the wave power is weak to moderate, but the constant cross-breeze (NNE at 12–19 mph) leaves the surface lumpy and messy. You’d be battling chop, not riding waves. For a sheltered reef break, the wind direction here is all wrong. If you’re a kiteboarder, the steady breeze and bumpy water might look okay, but for a surfboard? Not worth the drive.

A slight change appears from Sunday afternoon the 16th, when the wind starts edging cross-offshore from the north, and by Monday the 17th morning we get a cleaner look with a gentle breeze and 4ft swell from the N at 9 seconds. The comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” – that’s a generous take. It’s ankle to knee-high at best, and with only 252 units of combined energy, it’s barely a ripple. The same pattern continues through the next few days: cleanish faces but tiny swell, never breaking 4ft and dropping to 3ft by the 20th.

The real tease comes right at the end of the forecast window. From Monday 25 August onward, the swell bumps up to 6ft from the NNE, with the combined energy climbing to 361 on Tuesday afternoon and peaking at 466 on Friday the 28th. The period is still only 7–8 seconds, so it’s weak windswell, but the winds finally turn cross-offshore from the N on the 26th and 27th, cleaning things up. The 28th morning shows 6ft from N (8 sec) and 466 energy, but then the wind swings back to a messy cross-shore that afternoon. If you’re an experienced surfer and desperate, Friday morning the 28th is the one window that might offer some punchy, clean waves – but it’s a gamble this far out. Arrieta is an advanced reef that’s inconsistent and rarely breaks well. When it does, it needs the swell direction from the N to work, and we get that on the 28th morning. But with crowds possible and that short period, don’t expect any classic lines.

Summing up: the first 11 days are essentially a write-off. The last few days show a glimmer of hope, but only for the experts and only if the forecast holds. I’d keep an eye on Friday 28 August morning – that’s your best, and maybe only, real shot.

Stay patient, and keep the wax warm.
Rusty

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