Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s just get this out of the way: the next 16 days are a real struggle for Arrieta. The forecast is a long, drawn-out run of nothing but poor conditions, and to be honest, there’s not a single decent wave on offer. The first hint of any surfable swell doesn’t show up until the 15th, and even then, it’s a letdown.

We start off with a solid pulse of NNE swell on Wednesday the 2nd, pushing 7 ft, but the wind is a nasty cross-shore at 22 mph, making it lumpy and messy. The combined swell energy is moderate (704), but it’s all for nothing. That same pattern drags on for days. Thursday the 3rd sees the swell drop to 4 ft, winds ease a touch to 12 mph and shift cross-offshore, so the surface cleans up, but the wave quality is still ranked as poor. The energy is weak (204). The swell is short-period at 7 seconds, so it’s just weak, bumpy, and unexciting.

Friday the 4th is a washout with 3 ft to 3 ft of weak, short-period swell (energy 110-129). Winds are cross-off at 16 mph, but there’s just no power behind it. Saturday the 5th bumps up to 5 ft, but the period drops to 6 seconds, and the wind goes back to a fresh cross-shore in the afternoon, killing any chance of a clean wave. The energy is moderate (217-255), but it’s poor.

Sunday the 6th through Tuesday the 8th, we see a consistent run of 6 ft to 7 ft swell from the NNE, with energy climbing from 380 up to 728. Sounds promising, right? Wrong. The wind is either a fresh cross-shore or a moderate cross-shore the whole time. The period hovers at 7-8 seconds. The comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” Every single session is a bust.

From Wednesday the 9th to Tuesday the 15th, the swell slowly backs off from 6 ft down to 2 ft. The energy drops from 518 all the way to 127. The wind stays cross or cross-off, but it’s just not good enough. The only tiny glimmer is on the morning of the 12th, where we get a 2 ft swell from the NNW with a long period of 11 seconds and clean conditions. But at that size, it’s barely a ripple. The energy is weak (247). Not worth paddling out for.

The last couple of days of the forecast, the 16th and 17th, show a little more promise in terms of period. On the 16th we have 2 ft to 3 ft swell from the NW with a very long period of 12 seconds, and on the 17th, 3 ft to 4 ft from the NW/NNE with a period of 11 seconds. The winds are light and cross-off, so the surface will be clean. But the energy is still weak (142-244), and the swell heights are tiny. For a reef break that’s sheltered and inconsistent, this just isn’t enough to get excited about.

The bottom line? There are no standout days. There is no “best” on offer. This is a 16-day blank. The water is a touch warmer than usual at 75°, so at least the swim is nice, but keep your board in the car for another week.

Rusty.

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