Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, Rusty here again. Let's break down this Arrieta forecast in feet and miles per hour.

We’ve got a full 16-day window ahead, and honestly, it's a slow starter. The first week is plagued by a fresh northerly breeze blowing cross-offshore – keeps the surface clean, but the swell is short-period and weak for its size. From Friday the 11th through Saturday the 12th, we see 6-7ft swells from the north-northeast, but with energy levels that feel low for that size (383-529 in the tank), and it’s just poor surf.

Sunday the 13th afternoon is the first real crack. The wind goes glassy, and the swell drops to 4ft from the north at 8 seconds. It’s surfable but very ordinary.

Monday the 14th afternoon brings another glassy moment with a 2ft, 12-second groundswell. Energy is weak (264), but the wave has some shape. A session for the die-hards.

Then we hit a flat spell from Tuesday the 15th through midweek, with waves bottoming out below 2ft and energy in the double digits. The 16th sees a brief bump to 4ft from the north-northeast, but it’s a messy 6-second wind swell with lumpy cross-chop – not worth your time.

The weekend of the 19th-20th is a slow rebuild to 3-4ft from the north, with cleaner conditions and light breezes. It’s surfable, but again, very ordinary.

Now for the good stuff. Look to Friday the 25th afternoon and Saturday the 26th. A proper long-period groundswell pushes in – 17 seconds on Friday, 13 seconds on Saturday – with energy levels jumping to 405 then a massive 898-932. The swell runs 2ft to 5ft from the north-northwest, and the wind is a steady cross-offshore breeze. This is a reef-break wave with real punch and clean lines.

That said, long-period groundswell from the NNW can make Arrieta break a little straight, so it’s one for experienced surfers who know the reef. Water temp is about 75°F, just a touch warmer than average.

The best of the whole window: Saturday the 26th morning. That 5ft NNW swell with a 13-second interval and clean cross-offshore wind is your winner. High energy, good shape, and the kind of session you wait two weeks for. Crowds are possible at a spot like this, but for waves like that, it’s a fair trade.

Bottom line: the first two weeks are a grind. The final weekend looks promising with a proper groundswell. Long-range, so keep the faith but don’t bet the house.

Rusty.

Read more