Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's on the table for the next 16 days.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it's a tough run ahead. The only spot that's even sniffing the water is Arrieta, and honestly, it's a frustrating watch. This is a sheltered reef break that really needs a clean north wind and a proper swell window to work, and we're just not getting that for the most part.

The water temp is sitting at 71.8°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so that's no excuse.

The whole period is a long, drawn-out struggle of onshore and cross-shore winds. We start off Monday the 27th of July with a 5.2ft NNE swell, but it's a short-period 8 seconds and a cross-off wind is just making it messy. The wave energy is moderate at best, and it's just not doing anything for the wave face. That theme carries right through the week. On Wednesday the 29th, the swell drops to almost nothing – 1.3ft and 1.0ft – with a combined energy barely in the weak range. It's a total write-off.

We get a little bump in size on the 30th and 31st, with swell around 5.6ft to 6.6ft, but the period is still a pathetic 7 seconds and the wind is a fresh cross-shore, making it lumpy and choppy. The energy picks up to moderate, but the quality is just not there for a proper surf.

The only glimmer of hope, and I mean a tiny one, is on Saturday the 1st of August. The wind finally drops to a light breeze and goes cross-off, and we've got a 5.2ft swell. The energy is still moderate, and the wave comment says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions". It's a 1 out of 10, so it's the best of a bad lot. For a dedicated surfer who just needs to get wet, it's your only window, but don't expect much.

After that Saturday, it's back to the same old story. The wind howls again from Sunday the 2nd onward, and the swell hangs around from 4.9ft to a big 9.8ft by the 6th of August. But that huge swell is all short-period (8-9 seconds) and cross-shore wind, creating a massive, lumpy, brown mess. The combined energy hits "strong to very strong" levels, but that's not good news for a paddle surfer at a sheltered reef. With that kind of size, short period, and strong cross-shore, this setup honestly looks more interesting for a kite surfer to get some air than for a traditional surfer trying to find a clean face.

The long and short of it is: there's no standout day. The best on offer is that Saturday the 1st of August, with lighter winds, but it's still a very ordinary wave. The rest of the 16 days is a blank run of poor conditions. The forecast confidence is high for the near-term being poor, and the long-range doesn't offer any promise of a change. When the swell is that big and the wind is that wrong, the reef just needs a reset.

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