Arrieta Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break down the outlook for Arrieta. It’s a reef setup here, and to be honest with you, it’s looking like a bit of a tough stretch.

First thing I’ll say is, there’s honestly nothing to get excited about for paddle surfing for the entire 16-day forecast. The waves are small and weak for the first week, and while there’s a push of bigger swell later on, the wind is just going to ruin it. There’s a massive gap of no good surf from start to finish, so we’re looking at a long, blank run, which can happen in these parts when the wind and swell don’t line up.

Starting off on Tuesday afternoon, July 7th, you’ve got tiny 1ft swell from the NE with a short period of 6 seconds and weak energy (16). The wind is cross-shore from the NNE at 12 mph, making it messy. It’s a no-go.

Wednesday the 8th is even smaller in the morning with 0.7ft from the WNW, though the wind is a light cross-offshore at 9 mph, so it’s clean, but there’s just no swell. The afternoon sees a tiny 2ft from the NE with a 5-second period, energy still weak (22).

Thursday the 9th stays tiny, with 1.0ft NW swell all day, period around 9-10 seconds. The wind is a bit stronger though, at 12-16 mph cross-off from the north, but clean. Energy is still minimal (17). Friday and Saturday the 10th and 11th are similar – small NW swell, 1.0-1ft, moderate wind, clean conditions but no power.

By Saturday afternoon, a longer period 13-second swell from the NNW rolls in, but it’s only 0.7ft with energy at 34. That long period is a tease with no size. Sunday the 12th sees a bump to 3ft from the NW in the afternoon, period at 9 seconds, energy climbing to 159 (moderate), but the wind has shifted to a cross-shore from the NNE at 16 mph, which chops up the surface. That’s a frustrating one.

Into the week of the 13th and 14th, you get consistent 2-3ft NW/NNW swell, with moderate energy (115-159), and the wind is cross-off or cross. It stays clean, but the size is just too small for a meaningful session on a reef at Arrieta.

Now, from July 15th onward, the swell starts to really build, but the wind gets nasty. Wednesday the 15th morning has 4ft from the NNE, but a strong cross-shore wind at 22 mph creates lumpy conditions. Then on Thursday the 16th, the swell jumps to 7ft from the NNE with a short 7-second period, energy is very strong (556). But the wind is howling at 25 mph cross-shore. This is more like kite-surfing territory, honestly. The wave quality is shot.

Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th sees the swell peaking at 8ft from the NNE, period hovering around 8 seconds, energy in the 500-667 range (very strong). The wind is cross-off at 22-25 mph, so it’s clean in the sense of no chop, but at that size for Arrieta, and the swell direction not matching the optimum N direction, it’s going to be raw and for experts only. The water temperature is around 71°, which is about average for this time of year (anomaly +0.8°), so a normal wetsuit.

The last few days, the 20th to the 22nd, the swell drops back to 5-7ft, still from the NNE, periods staying short (7 seconds), with moderate to fresh cross-shore winds. The energy remains strong (234-388), but the surface will be lumpy and poor.

Honestly, for the entire 16 days, Arrieta doesn’t offer any standout surf. The wind is never right with the swell direction. The only potential glimmer is Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th when the swell is moderate and clean, but the cross-shore wind kills it. This is a case where you look at the forecast and just wait for the next change.

Stay patient, folks.

- Rusty, signing off.

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