La Derecha del Cartel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s break down what’s coming.

First thing – the next few days are flat. We’re looking at a real lull until the weekend of July 12th, and even then it’s barely a ripple. The swell is tiny, and the energy is next to nothing. Don’t even think about paddling out until the second week.

The only spot on the map is La Derecha del Cartel, a reef break that’s fairly consistent but mostly exposed to the NW. Water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Thursday July 9th and Friday July 10th – forget it. Swell is just 1 ft to 1 ft from the NW, period is short at 4 to 5 seconds, and the combined energy is a measly 3 to 9 (weak). The wind is light offshore or glassy, but there’s no wave to ride. Total write-off.

Saturday July 11th – still tiny. 1 ft, NW, period only 8 seconds, energy 11 (weak). Glassy conditions in the morning, but it’s a lake. Not worth it.

Sunday July 12th – a tiny bump. Morning sees 2 ft from the NNW with a period of 8 seconds, combined energy 66 (still weak). It’s glassy and clean, but the waves are small and ordinary. Afternoon goes onshore. Not a standout.

Monday July 13th through Wednesday July 15th – back to poor. 1 ft to 2 ft, short period, weak energy. Offshore or glassy wind at times, but no power. The swell just isn’t there.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. The real action doesn’t kick off until around Thursday July 16th. That’s a full week away, and it’s a long-range call, so don’t get too excited yet, but the models are lighting up.

Thursday July 16th – swell builds from the NE. Morning has 4 ft, period 7 seconds, energy 173 (moderate). The afternoon pushes 6 ft, period 6 seconds, energy 277 (moderate to strong). The problem? Wind is onshore from the NW, and the surf quality is poor. It’s messy and lumpy. Not for beginners – 6 ft is too big for them – and the short period makes it choppy. Might be more of a kite day than a paddle day.

Friday July 17th – the best of the run so far. Morning is glassy with 4 ft from the NE, period 8 seconds, energy 251 (moderate). The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions” – that’s a standout. The swell is clean, wind is almost nil, and the size is solid for intermediates. Afternoon gets a bit cross-on and bigger at 6 ft, but the morning window is the pick.

Saturday July 18th – two different faces. Morning is tiny again, 1 ft from the NW, not worth it. But the afternoon brings a pulse: 6 ft from the NE, period 7 seconds, energy 317 (strong). Glassy conditions. That afternoon session is a real highlight – clean, solid, and good energy. The 6 ft is on the limit for beginners, but it’s a good size for more experienced surfers.

Sunday July 19th – another strong day. Morning has 6 ft from the NE, period 8 seconds, energy 382 (strong), but the wind is onshore. Afternoon is glassy, 6 ft from the NE, period 8 seconds, energy 401 (strong). The afternoon is a standout: clean, powerful, and decent swell direction. The crowd profile at this spot is “often”, so expect company.

Monday July 20th – morning is 4 ft, clean, offshore wind, but only ordinary conditions. Afternoon picks up to 5 ft, period 7 seconds, energy 246 (moderate), and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions”. Clean offshore breeze. Another solid option.

Tuesday July 21st – morning has 4 ft from the NE, glassy, but the energy is dropping to 139 (moderate). Afternoon is back to tiny. The swell is fading.

Wednesday July 22nd through Friday July 24th – the run ends. Back to 1 ft to 1 ft, NW, short period, weak energy. Poor conditions. The window is closing.

The standout of the whole forecast is Friday July 17th morning – glassy, 4 ft from the NE, clean, and solid energy. The other absolute highlight is Saturday July 18th afternoon – glassy, 6 ft from the NE, strong energy. Sunday July 19th afternoon is also a cracker. If you can only paddle out once, make it Friday morning or Saturday afternoon. The second week has promise, but it’s a long way out – keep an eye on the wind.

Rusty.

Read more