Menakoz Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this outlook for Menakoz is a tough one. We’ve got a solid 16-day window to look at, but the first week and a half is basically a write-off. The waiting game is real, and the real action doesn’t fire up until the very end of the run.

We start off on Friday, the 24th of July, with tiny, weak 2ft swell from the NNW and a 6-second period. The combined wave energy is a weak 43, and a cross-on breeze is ruining any chance of a surf. It stays poor all weekend. Saturday the 25th sees the swell jump to 6ft, but that’s all raw energy from a WNW wind that’s cranking at 19 mph, making it a lumpy, cross-onshore mess. The energy climbs to 216, but it’s useless for a paddle. Sunday is more of the same – 5ft swell but with a moderate cross-onshore breeze. The waiting continues.

We get a glimmer of hope on Monday the 27th. The swell is 4ft from the NNW, but the period jumps to 11 seconds, giving it some long-period groundswell quality. The energy is up to 375, and the morning wind is light from the NNW. It’s still only a marginal forecast, but it’s the first sign of something trying to happen. Tuesday the 28th morning is the real standout of the first week – clean conditions with an ESE wind at 6 mph, giving us a light offshore. The swell is 4ft from the NNW with a 10-second period, and the energy is a solid 308. This is your best shot for a session, but it’s quickly ruined by the afternoon as the wind swings back onshore.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Wednesday the 29th through to Saturday the 1st of August, we’re looking at tiny, weak swells and poor wind. There are a few glassy mornings around the 30th and 31st of July, and the 1st of August, but the waves are only 2ft to 3ft and the energy is below 100. It’s surfable but very ordinary.

The real pay-off is a week away, on Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning is clean with a light offshore breeze from the east at 6 mph. The swell is 5ft from the NW with a 12-second period, long-period groundswell that will wrap nicely into the reef. The combined energy is a very healthy 493. This is the best session on offer – consistent, clean, and good shape. The water temperature is 76°F, which is a whopping 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s a very unusual warm spell. Monday the 3rd of August has a bigger 6ft swell from the NW with an 11-second period and energy hitting 766, but the wind is cross-onshore and then onshore, so it’s not as clean. This one is for the experts only, as the size is over 5ft and into the chunky range.

After that, the swell fades out through the second week, with a few surfable but ordinary glassy mornings around the 8th of August, but the energy is low and the waves are small.

So, to wrap it up: the standout is the morning of Tuesday the 28th of July for a clean, fun session, but the real gem is Sunday the 2nd of August – that’s the one to circle. The Menakoz reef is an expert-only wave, so don’t even think about it if you’re a learner. It’s fairly consistent when the swell is right, but the crowds can be a problem, so get in early. The waiting is boring, but the payoff is there.

Rusty.

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