Menakoz Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the outlook for the next couple of weeks at Menakoz is lean. This is a reef setup that needs specific conditions, and for most of the 16-day window, it’s not happening. There’s a long gap of poor surf and ordinary conditions right through until the very end. Let’s run through it.

The first couple of weeks are basically a write-off. From Wednesday the 15th of July right through to Sunday the 26th of July, it’s all “poor surf conditions” – tiny waves, wrong wind, or both. The swell is a measly 0.7 ft to 2 ft for most of that first week, with periods as short as 5 to 10 seconds, and the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore. Even when there’s a glassy morning on the 16th, the swell is only 2 ft and the period is a pathetic 5 seconds – barely a ripple. The water temperature is 75°F, which is a whopping 7°F warmer than normal, so it’s way warmer than usual for this time of year, but that doesn’t help the surf.

The only real glimmer in the whole period comes on Monday the 27th of July. That morning, the wind swings around to glassy, the swell is 3 ft from the NNW with a 7-second period, and the combined energy is a weak 78 (moderate energy). The conditions are described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” – not exactly a standout, but it’s the best on offer. The break is Menakoz, a reef, and it’s fairly consistent, but it’s an expert wave. The optimum swell direction is NNW, which matches the swell direction, so that’s a positive. The water temperature anomaly is missing from that day, but early in the period it was much warmer than average. Even so, it’s only a 1 out of 10 score, so don’t expect much.

After that, it’s back to poor surf through the rest of the month. The swell stays tiny, the wind is mostly cross-on, and the combined energy drops to single digits or low teens. There’s a run of days from the 20th to the 26th where the swell builds to 4 ft to 6 ft, and the combined energy hits 199 (moderate energy) on the 20th afternoon, but the wind is cross-on or onshore, so it’s all choppy and messy. On the 25th, the swell hits 6 ft with a 7-second period from the NW, but the wind is a moderate 12-16 mph cross-on, making it borderline for experts. That’s more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle session.

Bottom line: there’s a long gap of 12 days with no real surf, then a single mediocre morning on the 27th. This is a tough spot for a blank run, but it’s not unusual for Menakoz given the specific conditions it needs. Stay patient, and keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty.

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