Menakoz Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Menakoz over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, this is a tough outlook. We’ve got a long, dry spell of small, messy conditions to work through before anything of interest happens. The first real recommendation isn’t until Saturday morning the 4th of July, and even then it’s pretty ordinary. The water temp is 73°, which is a full 6° warmer than average for this time of year – very unusual, feels more like a bathtub than the open ocean.

So, the first window is Saturday morning the 4th. We’ve got a tiny 3ft NW swell with a 10-second period, but the magic is in the wind – it’s absolutely glassy, ENE at 5 km/h. That’s a rare treat for these parts. For an expert reef break like Menakoz, clean conditions are everything, but the combined swell energy is only moderate at 185. The surf is surfable, but very ordinary in size. Still, if you’re keen for a paddle and don’t mind small waves, this is your best shot early on. Expect crowds likely here, as the spot is often busy.

Sunday morning the 5th offers a similar story – glassy again with a 5 km/h ENE breeze, but the swell drops to just 2ft from the NNW. The combined energy is down to 111. It’s clean but tiny.

From Monday the 6th right through to Tuesday the 14th, the outlook is grim. We’re talking days of 1.0ft to 2ft waves, with mostly cross-onshore wind and combined energies in the 20 to 80 range – that’s weak. There’s no real swell to speak of, and the wind is never favourable. That’s a solid 10-day gap with no worthwhile surf. For an area like this, that’s not unusual – these blank runs happen.

Finally, things start to shift around Tuesday the 14th. The morning shows a glassy 2ft NW swell with an 8-second period and combined energy of 74. Still small, still ordinary, but glassy again. Then Wednesday the 15th morning picks up a little – 3ft NW swell, cross-shore wind from the ENE at 5 km/h, and the energy bumps up to 147 (moderate). It’s not a standout by any means, but it’s the most energy we’ve seen in a while.

The real standout, and the one to circle on the calendar, is Saturday the 18th of July. We get the biggest swell of the period: 5ft from the NNW, with a 9-second period. The combined energy jumps to a solid 327, which is moderate and the highest we’ll see. The downside? The wind is cross-on from the NW at 10 km/h, with the swell coming right from that direction too. That’s no good – it’ll be messy. For experts only with that size anyway. The afternoon drops to 4ft and goes onshore. So while the energy is there, the quality is poor. If you’re desperate, maybe a dawny, but don’t expect any gems.

That’s it. A long wait for very little, and even the biggest day is a write-off for clean conditions. Come back to me in a week or two; things can change.

Rusty.

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