El Conquistador Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next 16 days are looking pretty bleak for a proper surf check at El Conquistador, and that’s a frustrating one because this spot can handle a bit of juice. Honestly, you’re looking at a whole lot of nothing for the first week and a half. We’ve got a stretch from Wednesday morning all the way through to Tuesday the 22nd where the waves are basically just bump on the sand. There’s some small swell rolling in, but it’s all under 2 feet, with the wind mostly cross-off or even onshore at times. Not worth getting wet for, unless you’re just wanting to sit out there on a board. The combined energy is weak for the most part, sitting in the 20s and 30s, and just not doing anything.

You do get a few glassy windows in there, like Thursday morning the 10th with a light offshore, but the swell is just too small to make anything of it. Even when the period is a decent 16 seconds on the 9th, it’s a cross-off wind and the energy is weak, so you’re not getting any push. The water temp is pretty average for this time of year, so no real surprises there.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on the 16th of September. Wednesday morning is still small, but the energy starts to climb (113) and things are glassy. Then by Wednesday afternoon, the swell jumps a touch to 2 feet from the south with a 16-second period and the energy is building (161). That's still small, but the south direction with that long period and glassy conditions is a start. It’s still a beginner-friendly size, but at least it’s clean. The wind is calm, and you’re getting some proper groundswell in there for the first time.

That trend continues into Thursday the 17th, with 2 feet of south swell, glassy conditions, and good energy (141). This is about the best it gets for a while. It’s clean, it’s lined up, and while it’s not big, it’s surfable and the waves should have some shape to them. Friday the 18th is also making it work with 2 feet from the south and a cross-off breeze, keeping the faces clean. The energy is still moderate (127). These couple of days are the standout window of the whole period.

After that brief tease, it fades off again. Saturday and Sunday drop back down to around 1 foot with cross-off winds and weak energy. The real game-changer looks like it arrives on the 22nd and 23rd. Tuesday the 22nd afternoon has a jump in swell to 2 feet from the south with a very long 18-second period, and the energy is building nicely (235). Wind is a cross-off, so it should be manageable.

Then Wednesday the 23rd is looking like the pick of the bunch. You’ve got 2 feet from the SSW with a 16-second period, a light cross-off breeze in the morning and the energy is solid (261). This is the biggest, most consistent swell of the whole run. Expect good surf conditions. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and the swell direction is straight out of the south, which is what this break likes. The only downside is the Thursday after has an onshore wind, which could chop it up.

So, bottom line: you’re waiting it out. The week of the 16th to the 18th has clean but small waves. The real reason to get excited though, is Wednesday the 23rd. That’s the day I’d circle. It’s a week and a half away, so forecasts could shift, but it’s the most promising call of the whole outlook. It’s not a surging swell, but for El Conquistador, 2 feet of clean south energy is as good as it’s going to get.

Rusty.

Read more