El Conquistador Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s talk about what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. The waves are going to be tiny, really tiny, for a long stretch. It’s not a total write-off, but you’ll need to be patient. The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, so no surprises there – a 3/2mm might still feel fine for the early sessions.

The only game in town is El Conquistador, a beach and reef setup that’s very consistent, so it’ll be working when other spots have nothing. The swell direction (SSW) is a bit off from what it really wants (S), which will knock the quality down a peg.

Let’s break it down day by day.

Monday 13th July is your best bet across the whole outlook, and it’s your standout. Glassy morning with calm winds, then a clean afternoon with a light cross-off breeze. The swell is a tiny 2ft from the SSW, but the period is very long (15-16 seconds). That groundswell will bring in some real energy for the size, with moderate combined energy (287). It won’t be a rippable peak due to the long period, but it’ll be clean and fun on a log or a mid-length. This is the pick of the whole two weeks.

Tuesday 14th is still surfable, but the energy drops off. 2-2ft from the SSW, with a period dropping to 13-14 seconds. Morning is glassy, afternoon goes glassy again, so it’ll look clean, but the juice isn't really there.

Wednesday 15th and Thursday 16th, the wave size just fades away. We’re talking 1ft stuff, and by Thursday afternoon the swell direction shifts a little, and the period drops significantly (9 seconds). The combined energy drops to just 58 – that’s weak and windswell-like. The good news is wind stays light or glassy. It’s knee-high dribble.

Friday 17th is a write-off – poor conditions, swell down to 1.0ft, but the combined energy actually spikes to 102 due to a burst of short-period energy (12 seconds) mixing in. That just means bumpy, weak lines.

Saturday 18th into Sunday 19th: Still tiny (1-2ft), but the long-period groundswell (18-16 seconds) returns, with moderate combined energy around 142. Sunday afternoon has a clean offshore wind from the ESE. It’s not going to get you barreled, but with very consistent waves and glassy conditions, it’s a long period clean-up session for the patient surfer.

Monday 20th July into Tuesday 21st: Similar story. 2ft SSW swell, encore performances from the long period (13-15 seconds). Moderate combined energy (104-179) keeps the lines fat and fun, but don't expect power. Glassy mornings and clean afternoons on the 20th.

Wednesday 22nd – the wind picks up out of the ESE at 12 mph in the afternoon. 1ft swell, period down to 13 seconds, combined energy drops to 69. It’s weak and messy.

From Thursday 23rd all the way to Tuesday 28th July, it stays tiny – 0.7ft to 1ft – with combined energy often below 60. Wind and conditions are mostly clean (glassy or offshore light breezes), but the swell is just too weak to bother with. A few days, like the 24th and 25th, you’ll see a bump in period (15 seconds) on a clean glassy afternoon, but we’re talking 0.7-1.0ft. For a beach and reef break, long-period swells this tiny just don’t wrap in. That’s an offshore wind sports kind of setup, not a serious paddle session.

So to sum it up: get out Monday 13th for your best shot. There’s a long gap of weak, tiny surf from Wednesday 15th through to Sunday 19th that requires a very low expectation – or a kite. After that, it’s the same story of knee-high, clean, consistent, but ultimately gutless waves until the end.

Stay keen,
Rusty

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