Mosca Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a long view ahead for Mosca Point, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a slow burner. The first week or so is pretty flat and frustrating, but there’s a pulse building in the second week that could make things interesting for the crew willing to wait.

Right now, starting Wednesday the 8th, we’re lookin’ at tiny dribble. Swell heights barely a whisper at 0.3 ft from the north, with the combined energy sittin’ at a measly 1. That’s weak stuff. Winds are offshore, sure – a nice north breeze around 12 mph – but there’s just no water moving. This poor excuse for surf carries right through the 9th, 10th, and into the 11th. Saturday the 11th offers a tiny bump in period to 13 seconds on the afternoon, but swell height is still only 0.3 ft and the combined energy is just 6 – not enough to get excited about. You’re lookin’ at a solid 5-day gap of flatness before anything worthwhile shows.

Sunday the 12th morning is where we finally get a pulse. Swell jumps to 3 ft from the NNW, period 10 seconds, and combined energy hits 149 – that’s moderate energy, finally some push. Wind is offshore from the NNE at 12 mph, so it’s clean. The score might only be a 1, but this is the first surfable option in the whole run. Still, it’s very ordinary at best.

Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th drop back a notch – swell down to 2 ft and 2 ft, energy falling to 75 and 45 – nothing worth paddlin’ for. Wednesday 15th morning brings a fresh NNE breeze at 19 mph and a 2 ft swell – still poor.

Now here’s where it starts to get interesting. Friday the 17th – that’s over a week away – we see a big jump. Morning swell hits 5 ft from the NNE, period only 6 seconds though, and combined energy is 211 – moderate. Wind is offshore from the north at 19 mph. With that short period (under 8 seconds), the waves will be a bit weak and probably closey, but there’s size. By Saturday the 18th, it’s building: 6 ft to 6 ft from the NNE, energy up to 363–387, still with a fresh north wind. The swell’s gettin’ solid, but we’re still in “marginal” territory.

The real standout comes on Sunday the 21st through to Wednesday the 23rd of July. Sunday 21st has swell holding at 6 ft from the NNE, period 8 seconds, combined energy soaring to 492–528 – strong energy, that’s proper power. Wind is offshore, moderate breeze around 16 mph. The morning of Tuesday the 22nd is your top pick: 6 ft NNE swell, 8-second period, 519 combined energy, clean conditions with a north wind at 12 mph. It’s the first time we get a score of 2 in the whole run – expect good surf. This is the one to aim for. The optimum swell direction is N, and we’re getting NNE – close enough, and with that offshore flow, it should be clean and lined up.

Wednesday 23rd morning pushes up to 7 ft from the NNE, period 9 seconds, with energy at a big 751 – now we’re into strong to very strong wave energy. That’s a big, powerful swell, but it’s getting into expert territory (over 7 ft), so only the experienced crew should be out. Wind is a fresh 19 mph north breeze, offshore, so it’ll be clean and heavy.

Mosca Point is a beach and reef setup, sheltered from the north. It’s “fairly consistent” but for this stretch, the first week is a total write-off. Water temp is 71°F, which is about average for the time of year – anomaly is just 0.4°F, so no surprises there. Crowds can show up “sometimes,” so when that Sunday 21st run hits, expect a few others who’ve been waiting.

If you can hold out, the 21st through 23rd is where it’s at. Early week is a total flat spell – don’t bother. The big pulse late in the run is your ticket.

Rusty.

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