El Confital Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s cut through the noise and talk real talk about the surf ahead. The next couple of weeks is a story of waiting for the good stuff. It’s a slow burn, no doubt about it, but there are a couple of moments where the ocean will turn it on. Patience is key, and you’ll need to pick your windows.

The first few days are a write-off. Friday the 11th through Sunday the 13th, we’ve got a cross-shore wind from the north at around 15-25 mph, and the swell is small, messy, and all over the place. Wave heights are mostly in the 2 to 2 ft range, with a jump to around 6 ft on Saturday afternoon, but the period drops to 8 seconds. That’s short-period junk, and with that cross-breeze, it’s going to be lumpy and uninviting. The energy is weak at first, around 71, and even when it spikes to 419 on Saturday afternoon, it’s all chop and no shape. Not worth getting wet for.

Now, Monday the 14th is our first real glimmer. The wind dies completely, and it’s glassy as a lake. The swell is small, only about 2 ft, but it’s coming from the NNW with a solid 13-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, even if the size isn't there. The water temp is around 75°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so you’re not going to need the thick suit. The surface will be like a mirror. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the cleanest you’ll see it for a while. The afternoon stays glassy, and the swell pushes to 2 ft, so it might be worth a paddle.

The rest of that week into the weekend is back to small, wind-affected junk. Tuesday and Wednesday have light cross-shore breezes and tiny, inconsistent waves, all under 3 ft. The period is around 10-11 seconds, so there’s a bit of push, but the winds are just not with us. Thursday the 17th gets a fresh 18 mph cross-shore, which completely kills the vibe. The energy is weak, and it’s more of a hassle than a surf. We’re looking at a few days of nothing. It’s a real dry spell.

We do get a bump in size on Saturday the 19th, with waves pushing 4 ft from the north, but the period drops to 9 seconds and the wind turns cross-onshore from the NW. This is going to be a messy, lumpy, short-period mess. The energy is moderate at 341, but it won’t be any good. It’s the kind of day where you might see more kite surfers than surfers, with that wind and all that chop. It looks more interesting for them than for us on a paddleboard.

The following week, we’re looking at more of the same with a slight improvement. Monday the 21st is small, around 3 ft, with more cross-onshore wind. Then we get a shift on Tuesday the 22nd. The wind swings to a cross-off from the NNE, and the surface cleans up. The swell is still not big, but the period is a nice 13 seconds. The energy starts to build, hitting 257 in the afternoon. It’s a marginal call, but the clean surface makes it a much better prospect than what we’ve had.

That trend continues into Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th. The wind stays cross-off, and the swell holds around 3 ft with a 12-second period. The energy is moderate, in the 330-350 range, and the waves are getting more organised. This is looking like our best run of conditions for the whole period, though the size is still not huge. It’s clean, the period is right, and the wind is working for us.

And just as you think it’s all going to stay the same, we get a real standout on Saturday the 26th. The swell jumps to about 4 ft from the NNW with a 13-second period, and the energy nearly doubles to 675. That’s the most powerful swell we’ve seen in the whole outlook. The wind is cross-off from the north at around 15 mph in the morning, keeping things clean. This is the one to circle. It won’t be for beginners at 4 ft, but for the rest of us, it should be fun. The period is long enough for some proper push, and the direction is right for the break. It’s a bit further out, so treat it as promising, but a week and a half out, it’s the one I’d be watching.

So, the plan is simple. Monday the 14th is your glassy, small-wave fix. The best windows are the 22nd through the 24th, which are clean if you’re happy with chest-to-head-high waves. But if you want the most interesting surf of the whole run, you’re looking at Saturday the 26th. Just remember, this is El Confital, an expert break, and it will be inevitably crowded. Bring your A-game or just enjoy the show.

Stay salty.

Rusty

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