El Confital Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a stretch that starts off pretty flat and quiet, so don’t bother paddling out just yet. The real hope is a solid pulse of swell that builds toward the end of the 16-day window, but there’s a lot of time to kill before that gets here.

Right now and for the next several days, El Confital is offering hardly any rideable swell. Sunday afternoon the 16th has a tiny 1.3ft NNW swell, but the winds are cross-off so it’s clean—just not enough push to do anything with it. That sets the tone for a long, slow start. From the 17th through to about the 23rd, the swell stays small, mostly below 3ft, with moderate cross-shore winds and messy conditions. There’s a slight bump on Tuesday the 18th afternoon with 3.3ft and a light cross-off breeze, but the conditions are rated as ordinary. Still, that’s probably the best you’ll see in that first week, and it’s a stretch to call it good.

Around the 23rd, the swell tries to pick up a little, with waves around 3.6ft to 3.9ft from the north. But the wind stays cross-shore and the surf quality reports are poor through that whole stretch. The combined energy (250-269) shows moderate power, but the wind keeps things ugly. Then we hit a real lull: from the 24th through to the 28th, the waves drop off to nearly nothing—0.3ft to 1ft—with very low combined energy (2-25). It is a full blank run for days.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, but you gotta wait. Around the 29th of August, a solid north swell kicks in hard. Saturday the 29th sees 6.2ft swell from the north with a period of just 7 seconds. That’s short-period, wind swell energy—not the cleanest shape, but the combined energy is 363-370, which is strong. The wind, however, is still cross-shore from the north at 16 mph, so it’ll be lumpy and challenging. This is only for the experts—over 5ft and bumpy, so the beginners should sit this one out.

Then on Sunday the 30th, we get 4.9ft from the north with a cross-off breeze from the NNE at 16 mph, making conditions cleaner. The combined energy (238) is still moderate, and that short 7-second period means it’ll be a bit walled-up at the beach, but El Confital is a beach and reef setup. This window on Sunday morning is the standout of the whole outlook—clean conditions, and decent size for those who can handle it. That’s your best bet, but it’s still not a classic by any means.

The water temperature is currently 74.7°, which is about 1.8° above the average for this time of year—noticeably warm but nothing wild.

Let’s be straight: there are long gaps of no surf, especially from the 17th to the 23rd and then the 24th to the 28th. The only day worth getting excited about is Sunday the 30th morning. The rest of the forecast is either flat, too small, or blown out. If you’re a kite surfer, some of those days with 3ft+ and strong cross-off winds might look better than a paddle session.

Stay patient, friends.

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