El Confital Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let me level with you; the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of small, wind-affected surf ahead, so don't go getting your hopes up just yet.

Looking at the whole 16-day window, it’s a real struggle. The first solid chance for anything rideable won’t show until around the 13th of July, and even then it’s a dicey call. We have a gap of about a week and a half from now with nothing worth recommending.

The only spot in the mix is El Confital. It’s an expert-level wave, super consistent, but it needs perfect conditions to shine. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is about average for this time of year. The big problem early on is the wind. From Sunday the 5th right through till late in the first week, we’ve got moderate to fresh cross-shore breezes out of the north and north-northwest, just tearing the surface up. Swell is tiny, barely 2ft at best, with short, weak periods and low energy (25). It’s a poor outlook.

The wind never really gives us a proper offshore, but around Monday the 13th of July we start to see a little more promise. The morning of the 13th has clean conditions with a light cross-offshore breeze and a 3ft swell from the NNW. The energy builds from weak to moderate (89) by the morning and then hits 131 in the afternoon as the swell nudges 3ft. The period is still pretty short at 7-9 seconds, so it’ll be a bit sectiony, but at least it’s clean. This is the most interesting window, but it's still not going to blow anyone away.

The rest of that week fluctuates with cross-shore chop, and a brief clean-up on the 16th of July afternoon gives us a 4ft north swell (169 energy) and a cross-offshore wind. That might be the pick of the bunch, offering a slightly punchier wave but still demanding expert skill. The swell direction from the north is cross to that exposed west-facing reef, so it won’t be perfect. After that, the energy drops right off again into the 20th of July with barely any swell (energy down in the teens and single digits). It’s a tough run.

If you’re a kite surfer, those breezy, choppy days with the north wind might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s thin pickings. Forecasts can change, but right now, the standouts are the 13th and 16th of July afternoons, and even those are just "better than nothing" rather than epic.

Rusty.

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