El Confital Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for a proper surf at El Confital. We’ve got a lengthy dry spell on the cards, but I’m seeing a decent pulse of swell trying to show up late in the window, so don’t write it off entirely.

For the first several days, from Tuesday the 8th right through to the weekend, it’s tiny. We’re talking ankle-biters in the 1ft to 2ft range, with weak energy (52 to 129) and short, weak periods. The wind is mostly cross or cross-off from the NNE, which at least keeps it clean-ish, but there’s just no power. It’s not worth getting wet for. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild there.

Then we hit a flat spell. From around the 10th to the 13th, the swell drops right out. Wave heights are down to 1ft to 2ft, and energy numbers are pathetic—as low as 26. The wind shifts a bit more northerly, kicking up a cross-chop that only makes things worse. This is a dead stretch where the lineup will be empty, and for good reason.

There’s a little blip on Monday the 14th: the swell bumps up slightly to 2ft to 3ft, with a longer period (12-13 seconds) from the NNW, and the energy jumps to 325 for the morning. It’s still small, but those longer-period waves will have a bit more shape to them. The wind is light and cross-off in the morning, so it could be glassy. Still, it’s not going to be epic, just a hint of life. This fades quickly, and the rest of that week and into the weekend is back to small, weak, and mostly cross-shore winds. We’re looking at 1ft to 3ft, with energy mostly in the 50-190 range. It’s a grind.

Now, here’s the one to keep an eye on. Around Tuesday the 22nd of September, things start to get interesting. The swell builds to 4ft to 5ft from the NNW, with a very long period of 15-16 seconds. The combined energy is strong, hitting 684 to 871. That’s real groundswell. The wind is cross-off from the NNE, which should keep it pretty clean on the face. This is the standout of the whole outlook by a long shot—the only time we see any real size and power. It’s getting into expert territory at 5ft, and at a spot like El Confital, a long-period NW swell is exactly what it wants. However, this is more than a week out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. The day after, Wednesday the 23rd, sees similar size (5ft) but the wind swings more cross-shore from the N, which will make it lumpier. So, your window is really that Tuesday.

So, to sum it up: don’t bother with a board for the next week and a half. Let the banks settle. But mark the 22nd on the calendar. That’s our shot.

Rusty.

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