El Confital Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the pike for El Confital. I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half are looking pretty grim, but there's a little light at the end of the tunnel if you're patient.

The overall pattern is weak and frustrating. We've got a massive gap of small, messy surf ahead. For the first several days, from Tuesday the 15th right through to the end of next week, it's mostly small, weak, and crossed-up. The water temp at the start is sitting at about 75°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing weird there, just normal autumn water.

Tuesday the 15th kicks off with a tiny 2ft swell from the NNW. The early morning has a light cross-offshore breeze which will keep it clean, but with combined energy of just 140 (weak), it's really not worth paddling out for. You’ll be sitting there waiting forever on those 11-second intervals. The afternoon turns to a cross-shore wind, and the swell drops further. Not good.

Wednesday the 16th through Friday the 18th are a write-off. Swell stays tiny – 2ft or less – and the wind is howling from the NNW at 16 mph, putting a nasty cross-chop on the surface. The wave energy numbers are pathetic, dipping down into the 40-80 range. Just leave your board in the car.

Saturday the 19th is a tease. The morning sees a jump in size to 6ft from the N, with moderate energy (548), but the wind is still a messy cross-shore. It's a marginal, bumpy option at best, and that much size with a poor wind on this expert reef break is not for the faint of heart. The period on that morning swell is 9 seconds – not much grunt. The afternoon drops back to nothing.

The morning of Sunday the 20th is similar – 4ft N swell, but again, cross-shore winds and a short, weak 8-second period make it a grind. However, Sunday afternoon is the first real glimmer. The swell drops to 4ft, but the wind turns cross-offshore from the NNE, cleaning the surface up nicely. The combined energy is a moderate 302. It's not pumping, but it's rideable and clean.

Then we get another dry spell. Monday the 21st through the morning of Wednesday the 23rd is back to tiny, poor-quality waves.

Now, the standout window. Wednesday the 23rd of September in the afternoon is where you want to be. We get a clean 3ft groundswell from the NW. The wind goes light cross-offshore from the NNE, and the wave energy is a solid 342 (moderate). The period is a very long 14 seconds – that's proper groundswell, meaning better shaped waves and more push. This will set up beautifully on the reef at El Confital. It's an expert wave, and with that long period and clean conditions, the sets will be well-defined.

Thursday the 24th remains marginal but rideable with 3ft NW swells and light winds. But the real other highlight is Friday the 25th. The morning has a glassy, slight air wind from the NE – almost dead calm – with a 3ft NNW groundswell at 12 seconds and energy of 270. The afternoon builds: 3ft at 12 seconds, energy of 378, and still clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. This is the best-looking day of the whole outlook, and it's still a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it. After that, the weekend of the 26th and 27th fades back into marginal, cleaner but smaller conditions.

So, grab that Sunday the 20th afternoon session for a quick fix, but circle Wednesday the 23rd afternoon and especially Friday the 25th on your calendar. Those are the true standouts – clean, long-period groundswell, and the right wind.

Stay patient, and remember, the long-range stuff is promising but can change.

Rusty.

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