North Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. This is a tough one for the local waters. The entire 16-day window is a real struggle. We're looking at a long, dry spell with next to nothing worth paddling out for, until a very late and uncertain pulse shows up. You’ll be waiting a full two weeks before anything even sniffs at being surfable, so the first week and a half is a write-off.

Let’s run through it. Starting Friday, July 10th, it’s flat and weak. North Bar has a tiny 2ft S swell with a short 5-second period, giving us a combined energy of just 47 – that’s barely a ripple. The wind is a light cross-off, so it’s clean, but there’s no push. The water is sitting at 64°F, which is a massive 5°F colder than normal for this time of year. That’s a big anomaly; it’s much colder than usual, so you’ll need a thick suit.

We go through the whole weekend, all of next week, and into the following week with nothing. The swell stays tiny, under 2ft, and the period is either short or long and weak. Even when we get a clean offshore wind on Tuesday the 14th afternoon, the swell is only 1ft – it’s a lake. The combined energy figures are all in the teens, well below 100. This is dead.

The only glimmer, and I mean a faint glimmer, comes on Sunday, July 19th. The afternoon shows a 4ft swell from the E with a 5-second period. The combined energy hits 129 (moderate), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the SSE. But the wave comment says it’s “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s a 1 out of 10, and given the short period, it’s going to be weak and sectiony. It’s the best we’ve got, but it’s honestly nothing to get excited about.

After that, the following week shows a building swell, but it’s all onshore and messy. By Monday the 20th, the swell is 4ft from the S with 8 seconds, but the wind is a fresh cross-on from the E at 22 mph, making it lumpy and poor. The energy climbs to 239 (moderate), but the conditions are terrible. It only gets worse. By Wednesday the 22nd, we’re seeing 5ft S swell with 8 seconds and 295 energy, but it’s raining and the wind is blowing directly onshore from the NE at 22 mph. That’s a mess. For advanced guys only, and even then, it’s not fun.

The biggest swell of the forecast hits on Friday, July 24th, with 6ft from the S and 8 seconds. The combined energy hits 493, which is strong. But again, the wind is a moderate cross-on from the ENE at 16 mph. It’s going to be choppy and unappealing. This is expert territory size-wise, but with that onshore wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

The last hope is Saturday morning, July 25th. The swell drops to 6ft from the S, still 8 seconds, with 333 energy, and a gentle cross-shore from the ESE. The wave comment says “marginal.” It’s still a 1 out of 10. It’s not good.

So, the harsh truth: there is no standout session. The best on offer is the afternoon of Sunday, July 19th, but that’s a stretch. It’s a blank run for the area. The forecasts can change, but for now, leave the boards in the shed. This is a time for bike rides and checking the charts.

Rusty.

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