Jones Beach State Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you, it's Rusty, and I've been staring at the charts for Jones Beach State Park. Honestly, it's a bit of a tough stretch ahead. We've got a long run of small, messy, or just plain uncooperative conditions across this whole 16-day window. There's no single standout session that'll have you calling in sick, so you'll need to be patient and keep your expectations in check.

Right off the bat, from this Sunday, the 5th of July, through the middle of the week, we're looking at tiny waves – barely 1 ft to 3 ft – mostly from the east or southeast. The wind is a real problem, too, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, making things choppy and sloppy. It's just not worth paddling out. The water temperature is a massive 7° above average, sitting at around 76°, which is very unusual for this time of year, but with conditions that poor, you won't be thinking about the warm water for long.

We finally get a tiny glimmer of hope on the morning of Monday, the 6th. The swell is still small, only 3 ft from the ESE, but the wind goes *totally glassy*, which is a major positive for getting clean, if tiny, waves. The combined swell energy is weak (75), so it won't be powerful, but if you're desperate for a slide, that's the best you'll see for a while. The low period of 5 seconds means these are weak, wind-driven waves, so take what you can get.

After that, it’s back to the grind. We have a gap of several days with no real recommendations. The wind stays messy, the swell stays tiny, and the energy stays low. We see a slight uptick in combined swell energy to 102 on Friday morning, the 10th, with a clean cross-offshore wind from the west, but the swell is still only 3 ft from the SSW. It's still poor conditions overall.

Looking further out, into the second week there's nothing to get excited about. There are a few mornings with offshore winds – like Monday the 13th with a 16 mph NW wind – but the swell is just 1 ft and the combined energy is a paltry 32. That's not surf, that's a ripple.

Even the final days of the forecast window don't give us much. On Monday the 20th, we see the biggest wave height of the whole period at 4 ft from the southeast, and the combined energy climbs to a moderate 141, which is the highest we'll see. But it’s still saddled with a light cross-shore wind, and the period is a weak 5 seconds. The system just can't get its act together. This is a lean period for Jones Beach; sometimes the ocean just takes a nap. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it can't stay this poor forever.

- Rusty

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