Ditch Plains Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. I've been staring at the charts for this part of the coast we're calling Ditch Plains, and the outlook is a tough one.

To put it simply, this 16-day window is a write-off. We’re staring down the barrel of a long stretch with next to nothing on offer. From now right through to July 28th, the models are showing no waves worth paddling out for. It’s brutally quiet. When you see combined energy values for the whole swell field sitting at barely 22 (weak energy), you know it’s a dead ocean. And it stays that way. Even when that energy bumps up into the low hundreds, the wind is on it, and the quality is shot. There are going to be long days of staring at flat, bumpy water.

Let’s break it down. Monday the 13th is flat – 1 ft of tired, short-period swell, cross-shore breeze, and the water temp anomaly is about average for this time of year. Nothing doing.

Tuesday the 14th sees a slight lift, but that’s about it. By Tuesday afternoon we’ve got a 6 ft swell from the SSW with a period of only 6 seconds, so it’s just a messy, wind-blown chop. The energy hits 184 (moderate), but with a strong cross-wind, it’s only good for the kite crew, not for a surfer.

Wednesday the 15th afternoon is your one tiny glimmer. We get a 3 ft swell with a clean, offshore breeze out of the NW at 3 mph. The combined energy is only 71 (weak), but the conditions are clean. The swell direction is SSW, which is close to the optimum SSE direction for this reef break, but it’s not quite right. Don’t get your hopes up.

Thursday the 16th, the wind howls back. Friday the 17th goes flat again. Saturday the 18th morning is glassy, but only 2 ft of swell, giving a combined energy of 25 (weak). It’s a disappointing sight.

From there, it just gets worse. There’s a period of stronger south winds and risk of thunderstorms around Sunday the 19th and Tuesday the 21st, but it’s all attached to weak, short-period swell and cross-shore winds. The energy occasionally gets up to 285 or 401 (moderate), but this is from a messy S/SSW windswell with a period of just 4 to 8 seconds. It will be a complete washing machine.

The remainder of the month follows the same sad pattern. A bit of swell, but always with onshore or cross-shore wind from the east and south-east. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Honestly, for this area, a blank run like this isn't that unusual. Most spots aren’t consistent. It tends not to stay poor for long, and forecasts can change, but right now, you’re better off finding something else to do for the next couple of weeks.

Signing off.
Rusty.

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