Costellos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’ve looked over the charts for the next couple weeks, and it’s a pretty flat and frustrating outlook. We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny waves, with only a few fleeting moments that are worth paddling out for.

The big story is a total lack of any real swell energy. For the vast majority of the period, wave heights are sitting around 1ft to 2ft, with a combined energy that’s mostly under 100, which is weak. There are a couple of pulses where the swell bumps up, but the quality is really let down by the conditions at Costellos, which is our only option on the cards.

Starting out, the first week is grim. From Friday afternoon the 3rd right through to Monday the 6th, it’s tiny 1ft waves with no power. The wind is all over the place, but the swell is just too small to even think about. It’s a total write-off.

We get a little bump starting Tuesday the 7th, but it’s messy. Swell pushes up to 4ft-4ft, but the period is a terrible short 5-6 seconds – that’s pure windswell junk. Combined energy hits a moderate 132 on Tuesday afternoon, but with a strong cross-on wind from the NE at 15-18 mph, it’s lumpy and choppy. Wednesday the 8th looks a bit cleaner with offshore winds and a 4ft swell at 8 seconds, energy at 173, but it’s still a short-period wave and the crowds at Costellos are often. Honestly, that midweek window might be the best we get, but it’s nothing to write home about.

There’s a brief window on the morning of Thursday the 9th where it cleans up. The swell drops to 3ft with a 7-second period from the ESE, energy is weak at 70, but there’s a light cross-off breeze. The notes say “surfable but very ordinary,” which is the best we can hope for. Friday the 10th has a similar early window, with 2ft and light NW winds giving clean surf, but again, tiny.

After that, another flat spell. From Saturday the 11th right through to Tuesday the 14th morning, it’s back to 1ft waves. Not worth getting out of bed for. The water temp is a normal 64°, so no surprises.

Looking further out, there is more size on the horizon, but it’s a long way off. Around Wednesday the 15th, we see a 4ft swell from the SSE with a 6-second period. Combined energy hits a moderate 151, but the wind is cross-on and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. That’s the sort of day you might find a lumpy, stormy wave.

The real standout, if you’re patient, comes on Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th. On Thursday, we’ve got a 4ft swell from the SSE with clean offshore winds from the WNW. The energy is moderate at 92, but the wind is clean. Friday the 17th morning has a similar setup with 2ft swell and cross-off winds. It’s not big, but it’s the cleanest we’ve seen in a while. That Thursday and Friday look like the pick of the whole 16-day run.

Beyond that, the 18th has a clean 3ft swell with offshore winds in the afternoon, so keep an eye on that.

So, the bottom line: there’s no epic swell coming. If you’re desperate for a paddle, the mornings of the 9th and 10th, and especially the 16th and 17th, are your best bets for clean, albeit small, waves. The rest of the time, leave the board in the truck.

That’s it from me.

Rusty

Read more