10th Street (Avalon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break down what's coming up at 10th Street (Avalon).

First thing, the water is running a warm 78° – that's about 6° warmer than normal for this time of year, which is really unusual. You'll be fine in a shorty or even just boardshorts.

Now, I'm not going to lie to you: the next week or so is a bit of a bust. We're looking at a long dry patch with no real surf to get pumped about. From Sunday the 6th right through the middle of the month, it's mostly tiny, weak waves. The energy readings are all in the double digits – that's weak sauce – and the swell heights are barely a ripple. For example, Sunday the 6th morning has a weak 1ft swell out of the east with a short 7-second period, combined energy of just 17, and the comment is "poor surf conditions". That tells the whole story for the first week. There are a few mornings with light offshore or glassy conditions, like Tuesday the 8th morning (1ft, WNW offshore) and Friday the 11th afternoon (1ft, NNW offshore), but there's just no power behind the waves.

We finally get a little bump around Thursday the 17th. Thursday morning shows a jump to 4ft from the ENE, with a 6-second period and a combined energy of 128 – that's moderate energy. The wind is cross-off from the NNE at 16 mph, so it'll be clean. Thursday afternoon pushes up to 4ft, still from the ENE, energy of 140, but the wind swings to cross-shore. This is likely the best we'll see in the whole forecast, but it's still not a standout. The swell direction is ENE, which is close to the optimum NE direction for this break, but the period is short at 6 seconds, so the waves will be a bit weak and crumbly. At 4ft, it's still okay for intermediates, but not big enough to be a classic.

After that, we drop back down again. Friday the 18th is back to 3ft with cross-shore winds, and the weekend is even smaller with fresh cross-shore breezes kicking up some chop. The last few days, like Monday the 21st morning, go glassy but the swell is gone, with just 1ft and energy of 25.

So, honestly, there's no true standout in this 16-day window. The best bet is Thursday the 17th, when we get a bit of size and clean conditions, but don't expect perfection. If you're a beginner, the bigger days on the 17th (over 4ft) might be a bit much, but for an intermediate, it's worth a look if you're itching. For the rest of the time, the board might as well stay in the car. It's a frustrating stretch, but that's how it goes sometimes – forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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