10th Street (Avalon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be honest with you right up front—this 16-day stretch for the Avalon stretch is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, frustrating run of tiny, mostly junky surf. In fact, the first full week is basically a write-off. The swell is just not there, and when there is a bit of push, it’s got that short-period, onshore chop that makes you wonder why you bothered waxing up.

We start off on Sunday the 16th with a tiny 0.6ft southeast windswell bumping into a cross-onshore breeze. It’s poor, full stop. The energy is weak (14), and it just looks messy. Monday the 17th is flat—no waves at all. Tuesday bumps up to a knee-high 0.3ft, but that’s not surf. We grind through Wednesday and Thursday with 2ft and 1ft of SE slop, but the energy is still weak (60 and 22), and it’s just not doing anything. The wind is offshore or clean at times, which is nice, but with waves that small, it’s still a lake.

The weekend of the 23rd and 24th is more of the same—clean but tiny. We’re looking at 0.6ft to 1ft. You’d be better off with a bodyboard or just enjoying the beach. Then the 25th through 28th stays in that same rut, with 1ft to 3ft. The energy starts to pick up a touch on the 26th (131) and the 27th (159) as a slightly longer period SE swell tries to show, but it’s still tiny and the conditions aren't enough to save it. The morning of the 27th has a light offshore NW wind and 2ft, but honestly, that’s the best of a very bad week—a one-star day at best.

Now, after a long, barren stretch, we finally get some real swell energy on the 29th, but it’s a cruel joke. The wind turns cross-onshore out of the ENE, and the swell arrives as a short-period 5ft to 6ft windslop. The energy is jumping up to 152 and 261, but the quality is still poor. This is the kind of day where the setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing—it’s messy, bumpy, and just not inviting.

Sunday the 30th is the biggest of the stretch, with 7ft of ENE windswell and moderate onshore winds. The energy is strong, hitting 419 and 443, but the period is only 7 seconds. It’s a full-on closeout machine, and with that size and short period, it’s only going to be for the most experienced crew, and even they will be fighting it. The conditions will be choppy and poor.

Finally, on Monday the 31st, we’ve got 8ft with energy at 597. This is the biggest of the whole window, but again, with a 8-second period and cross-shore winds, it’s marginal. It’s not the clean, long-period groundswell we’d want. It’s just a big, raw, lumpy mess.

So the standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Thursday the 27th of August. It’s not big, by any means, but it’s the only window with a clean, offshore wind and a hint of longer-period SE swell. Even then, at 2ft, it’s a micro-session for a logger.

The long-range stuff at the end of the month is powerful but unsurfable for most. Keep an eye on it, but don’t get your hopes up. The water temp here is about average for the time of year, which is something, I guess.

It’s a tough outlook, plain and simple. A lot of flat days, and when the waves do show, they’re not worth paddling out for. Hang tight, and let’s see if the forecasts shift. This dry spell can’t last forever.

Rusty.

Read more