10th Street (Avalon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board. It's a bit of a slow grind out there for the next week, to be honest. We're looking at a stretch with some real small, junky surf before things finally start to wake up.

Right now, and for the next several days, it's going to be a scratch-fest. The swell direction is all wrong, coming in from the southeast at a tiny 1ft to 2ft with short-period energy in the 4-6 second range. There's just no push or shape to it. The wind is all over the place too, and there's a cross-chop that'll have you battling for anything. The water is a warm 78°, which is 7° above what we'd normally see this time of year – that's a big jump, making it feel more like summer than early fall.

We'll see a slight bump in size this Saturday, the 12th, up to 3-3ft, but it's coming straight onshore with a weak 4-second period. That's not surf, that's just bump. It'll be a mess. Sunday and Monday offer a bit of cleaner conditions with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is still tiny, around 1-2ft. It might be a longboard-only, knee-high kind of morning if you're desperate for a paddle.

The middle of next week, from the 15th to the 18th, is a bit of a tease. The swell pushes slightly to 3ft but the direction swings to the east-northeast, which is better, but the period is still pretty short. It's mostly cross-onshore or onshore, keeping things choppy. It's not worth getting too excited about.

Then we hit a lull again from the 19th, with almost nothing showing. This quiet spell runs right through the start of the next weekend. Hang tight.

But here's the good news, and it's worth the wait. The real action builds right after that gap. We've got a solid increase in the swell from the 20th of September, with heights jumping to 7ft and the energy starting to climb – it gets up to 412 (moderate energy) on Sunday morning. The wind is still cross-off though, so it won't be perfect, but it's starting to look real. By Monday the 21st, we're seeing consistent 7ft waves and the energy is climbing again, hitting 555 and 777 later in the week. The direction is from the east-southeast, and the period stretches out to 8-9 seconds, which is much better.

The standout has to be the morning of Thursday, the 24th. We've got a clean 6ft of east swell with a 9-second period, an offshore breeze, and moderate wave energy at 991. That's the pick of the bunch. The morning of Friday the 25th is also solid, with 5ft and a light offshore wind.

10th Street (Avalon) is a beach and jetty set-up, and it's inconsistent at the best of times. This long stretch of small, junky surf is more the norm for a spot like this, so don't be discouraged. The period on that good swell is right in that 9-second sweet spot, which should give it some decent shape along the jetty. With the size pushing 7ft earlier in the week, that’s getting a bit much for beginners, and when we hit that 6ft on the Thursday, it'll be the most fun you'll have all trip.

There might be a few days there where the 7ft swell and the onshore winds make it look more like a kitesurfing show than a surf spot. Especially the 22nd and 23rd, if the wind is howling onshore and it's getting chopped up, I'd leave the shortboard at home.

So, there you have it. A long stretch of small stuff, but a strong finish. Mark your calendar for that Thursday the 24th. It's a little ways out, so things could change, but it's looking promising. This is Rusty, signing off.

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