10th Street (Avalon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it’s Rusty here. I’m looking at the forecast for 10th Street (Avalon), and I gotta be straight with you—this is a tough one. For the next 16 days, it’s a pretty grim picture overall. There are no standout days that I’d call a proper surf. We’ve got a long dry spell ahead.

Let’s start from the beginning. Right now, we’re coming out of the gate with practically nothing. The first few days are flat and messy. Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th have tiny dribbles of swell—1 ft to 3 ft from the SE—with weak energy (combined energy only in the 19-53 range). The wind is all over the place, and the wave comment says it plainly: “poor surf conditions.” Not worth paddling out.

The middle of the week, Monday the 14th through Thursday the 17th, doesn't get much better. Swell sizes hover around 1 ft to 4 ft, with periods as short as 4 to 8 seconds. The wind is mostly cross-on or cross-off, and the water gets choppy. The combined energy stays under 100 most of the time, and the feedback is all “poor surf conditions.” There’s a moment Monday afternoon where the comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” (score 1), but with a 3 ft, 5-second swell from the NE and cross-off wind, it’s not something I’d get excited about. The water temperature is already noted for the first surf mention: it’s 77°, which is a whopping 6° warmer than normal—very unusual for this time of year. Feels like a bath.

We hit a bit of a bump around Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th, with rain showers and some cross-winds, but the swell is still small and weak. No real improvement.

Then, about a week and a half out, we see a pulse of bigger energy. On Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd, the swell jumps to 7 ft to 8 ft from the ENE, with periods around 8 seconds. The combined energy spikes into the 500s, 700s, and even hit 792 on Monday afternoon. But here’s the catch: the wind is a fresh to strong cross-shore or cross-onshore breeze, and the wave comment calls it “poor surf conditions” and “messy.” At 8 ft, that’s too big for beginners and just for experts, but with that lumpy, choppy wind, even the experienced crew will have a hard time. Honestly, with these strong winds and the beach/jetty setup, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The setup is just too blown out.

Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th still have some size (5 ft to 7 ft), but the wind remains cross-on or cross-off, and the comments stay “poor” or “marginal.” The combined energy on Wednesday morning hits a huge 1270, showing there’s plenty of power, but the quality isn’t there. Friday the 25th is the one day that almost sounds okay: 3 ft to 3 ft from the E, 9-second period, with moderate offshore NW wind at 16 mph. The comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” (score 1). It’s clean, but the swell is small, and the wind is a bit strong. For a local who just wants to get wet, it might be the best of a bad lot, but it’s not a stand-out.

After that, the last weekend, Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th, drops back to tiny swell and messy cross-winds. It fizzles out.

So, to sum it up: we’ve got a 16-day forecast with no true standouts. The only time we see any notable size is around the 21st and 22nd, but the wind ruins it. The 10th Street break is “inconsistent” and “rarely breaks,” which is normal for this area when the conditions aren’t right. It’s a blank run, and we just have to wait for the next change. Forecasts can always shift, but for now, I’d leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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