Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. Looking at this 16-day stretch for our little slice of the coast, it’s a tough pill to swallow. We’ve got a long, flat, and frankly pretty sad run of surf on the horizon. The good news is, there’s a tiny flicker of life way out at the end, but we’ve got a lot of staring at a glassy, gutless ocean to do before we get there.

The next week and a half is a total write-off. From Friday the 7th all the way through to Sunday the 16th, we are looking at swell heights that barely register. We're talking 0.7ft to 3ft of dribble. The energy is just pathetic, with combined energy values mostly in the low double digits, like 28, 43, or 20. It's weak stuff. The wind is also all over the place, mostly cross or cross-on, chopping up an already hopeless situation. Every single day in this stretch is rated as "poor surf conditions." It’s the kind of flat spell that makes you wonder if the ocean forgot its job.

There is a slight change on Monday the 17th. The morning is still nothing, but the afternoon shows a little pulse. The swell bumps up to 2ft from the SSE with a period of 7 seconds, and the energy jumps to 73. With light west winds keeping it clean, it’s the first time we see the words "surfable waves." It’s not going to be firing, but it’s something. This is the first spot where you might actually want to paddle out, even if it’s just to get the salt back in your hair.

Tuesday the 18th brings a bit more size, with the swell hitting 4ft in the morning and pushing to 4ft by the afternoon from the SE. The energy is picking up too, going from 59 to 110. But the wind is a buzzkill. It’s cross-on in the morning and then straight onshore by the afternoon, making it messy and lumpy. The conditions are still being called "poor." It’s a bit of a tease, really.

Then the ocean seems to wake up around Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th. We see a jump in energy, with values hitting 143 and then a solid 277 on Wednesday afternoon. The swell is there, around 3ft to 5ft, but the period is short and the wind is a mess. Fresh cross-shore winds and the risk of thunderstorms on Wednesday will have it blown out and lumpy. Thursday is cleaner, with a strong offshore wind, but that swell drops right back down to 2ft. The energy drops too. It’s a frustrating combo of more water moving but no quality to show for it.

The one true standout in this whole outlook is the afternoon of Monday the 17th. It’s not big, but it’s the combination of a little bump in energy and clean, light wind. It's the only session that looks like it'll be worth the walk down the sand. If you're desperate, that's your window.

For the rest of it, especially with the onshore winds and blown-out conditions around the 19th, this might be more interesting for the kiteboarders than us paddle surfers. But remember, the second week is a long way off, so these calls are less certain. Forecasts can change. After this flat spell, it tends not to stay poor for long.

Stay patient.

Rusty.

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