Masonboro Inlet Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

First up, the reality check. Don’t get too worked up about the next week or so, because we’ve got a pretty flat stretch of water on the cards. We’re starting off with some weak, short-period ESE windswell that’s barely putting a dent in the ocean. The water temp is sitting at 28°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year down here at Masonboro Inlet. It’s not going to be the saving grace, that’s for sure.

The combined energy for the next few days is going to be pretty weak, with values mostly in the 20s and 30s, telling you there’s just no push behind it. On Wednesday the 16th, we’re dealing with maybe 0.8m of weak east swell and a cross-shore breeze chopping things up. It’s pretty junky.

We’ll see a dead period from the 17th right through to the 24th. We’re talking knee-to-waist high dribbles at best, with the occasional longer period pulse from the southeast that just doesn’t have the size to matter. A few mornings might have a moment of glass, like on Friday the 18th and the following Wednesday the 23rd, but it’ll be small, inconsistent, and generally walled-out. The energy stays below 100 all week, so there is just no clean power in the water. This run looks like it’s the calm before something better.

Now, hang on to your board. Things start to get interesting around the 28th. A push of new, mid-period ESE swell starts to build. First up on Monday morning the 28th, we’re looking at a clean-ish 1.5m with energy climbing to 170. It’ll be lumpy from a cross-shore wind, but it’s starting to feel like there’s something to work with.

Then things get real on Tuesday the 29th. That ESE swell fills in properly. We’re looking at 2.2m in the morning, pushing 2.5m by the afternoon. The combined energy jumps right up to 554 in the morning, then rockets to over 1000 by the afternoon. This is proper, powerful groundswell, but that period is only about 8 seconds, so it’s just a heavy, wind-blown mess. The cross-shore winds are strong, 30 km/h fresh breeze, leaving the surface lumpy and choppy. It’s putting out a lot of water, but the quality is going to be super poor. This isn't for the faint of heart, and the break is going to be a freight train that’s hard to paddle into. It’s powerful, but with that short period and wind chop, it’ll be testing even for the experts.

We round out the period on Wednesday the 1st of October with a drop to 1.2m and fresh cross-shore winds around 30-35 km/h, more of a lumpy cross-chop situation. The energy dips down to around 200, but it’s still a lot of moving water for the jetty.

So here’s the thing. If you’re looking for the standout, it’s going to be Tuesday the 29th. That’s the biggest, rawest day of the window. But, and that’s a big but, it’s going to be ugly. The swell direction from the ESE is good for the jetty, but that short period and the fresh onshore winds will make it a grindy, unforgiving mess. It’s the biggest surf by far, and it has the most energy, but it will be about survival out there, not getting a clean barrel. It’s a real mixed bag for the second week.

Alright, stay safe out there.

Rusty

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