Pelican Watch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a decent paddle. We've got a long stretch of small, weak surf ahead, and the conditions are going to be pretty ordinary for the most part. The good news is, there's a glimmer of hope at the very end of the forecast, but you'll need to be patient.

The first real opportunity to even think about getting wet doesn't show up until Sunday the 23rd. Before that, from Friday the 14th all the way through to that Saturday the 22nd, it's a flat, bumpy mess. We're talking ankle-biters, mostly under 2ft, with weak energy readings (in the 9 to 94 range). To make it worse, the winds are mostly cross-off or onshore, so it’ll be chopped up and messy. There are a few glassy moments on the 20th and 22nd mornings, but the swell is just too weak to do anything with. It's a long stretch of nothing, about nine days of frustration.

Now, on Sunday morning the 23rd, things get slightly interesting. Pelican Watch (North Shore) finally sees a little pulse of swell, 2ft from the S with a short 5-second period. The energy is still weak (50), but the wind is a clean cross-off from the SW. It's not going to be epic, but it's the first time you might get a few crumbly, soft waves. The short period means it'll be a bit jumbled, but at least it's rideable. It's still very much a beginner-friendly size, and since the crowds are listed as “often”, you won't be alone out there.

The real standout, the only one worth getting excited about, is shaping up for Friday the 28th. While the morning is still a bit iffy with a cross-on breeze, the afternoon is where it's at. We're looking at a solid 3ft of SE swell, and the energy jumps to a moderate 223. The wind swings to a light cross-off from the SSW, and the forecast is for clean conditions. This is your window. It's still not huge, but with the clean conditions, it's going to be your best bet of the whole period. It'll be a fun, rippable size, not too big for most.

Then, on Saturday the 29th, the swell actually jumps up to 4-5ft with a long 13-second period and very strong energy (543-698). It looks big and powerful, but the wind is straight onshore from the E, which will chop it up completely. For a beach break like this, that's a disaster. It'll be a close-out, blown-out mess, and honestly, with that onshore wind and the short-period beach break setup, this is looking more like a day for the kitesurfers than for us paddle surfers.

So, there you have it. A long flat spell, one small window on the 23rd, and one solid, clean afternoon on the 28th that is your clear standout. The long-range stuff on the 29th is a tease—lots of energy, but the wind kills it. It’s worth keeping an eye on as it might clean up, but don't hold your breath.

As for the water, it's sitting at around 82°, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

Stay patient.

Rusty.

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