Pelican Watch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this stretch is a tough one. We’ve got a long, quiet run ahead with only a few flickers of hope, mainly around the third week. The water’s sitting at a warm 84°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothin’ wild on that front.

Right off the bat, we’re lookin’ at a big gap. From Sunday the 12th of July right through to Saturday the 18th, it’s pretty much flat or junk. Tiny swell, messy winds, and scores are zero—hardly worth paddlin’ out. The combined energy is weak, barely crackin’ 40 to 50 on the best days in that first week. There’s a brief moment Sunday morning the 12th with a light offshore, but the swell is only 1ft from the SE with a short period of 9 seconds—so just tiny, weak lines. Not worth wettin’ a suit.

We finally see a pulse of life on Sunday the 19th of July. The morning at Pelican Watch shows a clean 3ft SE swell with a moderate offshore wind from the WSW at 16 mph. The combined energy jumps to 58—still weak, but it’s nothin’ like the dead zone before. This is surfable, but it’s very ordinary. The afternoon gets bigger, 4ft from the S, but the wind is stronger and more side-off, so it’ll be lumpy. Not a standout.

Then Monday the 20th of July morning offers the best chance we’ve got in the whole outlook. The swell hits 5ft from the SSW, period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy is 235—moderate. Wind is just a light northerly, so light cross-shore, it’ll be a bit crinkled but rideable. This is the one to circle if you’re keen. Still, it’s early days, and the forecast confidence is lower out here. For experts, it’s manageable; beginners might find it a bit lumpy at that size. Crowds at Pelican Watch can be often, so expect some company on that Monday morning.

After that, it fades again. Tuesday the 21st through Saturday the 25th sees small, weak swell and mostly onshore winds. Nothin’ worth chasin’. There’s a brief pulse on Wednesday the 22nd with 3ft and clean conditions, but the energy is weak (50). Same story on Thursday the 23rd morning—4ft from the SSW, period just 6 seconds, clean, but marginal.

The very end of the run on Monday the 27th of July shows another spike: 5ft SSW swell, combined energy of 214, and clean conditions with a firm WSW wind. That’s over a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it—promising but not locked in.

So overall, a long quiet spell, then a couple of decent but not epic days around the 19th to 20th of July, and another possible late pulse on the 27th. The best bet is Monday the 20th of July morning. It’s not a classic, but it’s the closest we get to a proper session in this outlook.

Rusty.

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