Pelican Watch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right now, Pelican Watch is pretty gutless. We’re looking at a run of small, wind-affected slop for the next week or so. The water’s sitting at 82.6° – that’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the rashie can stay in the car, but honestly, you won’t be needing it for the waves.

Wednesday the 16th is a write-off – 3ft of short-period E swell, onshore wind, and lumpy, cross-onshore chop. Weak energy too, with the combined swell energy at 71. Thursday the 17th is barely better – 2.6ft, still cross-onshore, still messy. Friday the 18th goes flat, with 1.6ft dropping right off, and the glassy morning won’t save it – there’s just no push. The only brief glimmer is Friday afternoon’s 0.7ft but the 12-second period means it’ll be breaking too soft and straight anyway.

From Saturday the 19th through to Thursday the 24th, we’re stuck in the 0.7ft to 1.6ft range. Tiny, weak, cross-onshore junk. The combined energy mostly sits below 60 – barely a ripple. There’s a clean moment on Monday the 21st morning with a light cross-off, but 1.3ft at 8 seconds isn’t worth paddling out for.

Then things get real. Friday the 25th starts to nudge up – 3ft but at a dreadful 5-second period, and by Saturday the 26th it’s 3.6ft to 3.9ft, still with poor period and fresh cross-onshore wind. The Sunday the 27th is lumpy, and then Monday the 28th brings the first proper size – 5.2ft to 5.9ft at 6 or 7 seconds, combined energy jumping to 214 and then 293. That’s moderate energy, but with fresh cross-onshore winds, it’s chop city. Not what you’d call clean.

Tuesday the 29th is where the swell really hits – 7.9ft in the morning, jumping to 9.8ft by afternoon, combined energy 721 and then 1326. That’s strong energy, but the period is still only 8-9 seconds and the wind is fresh cross-onshore at 35 km/h. This is big, lumpy, and messy. It’s going to be heavy and closed-out, and honestly, with that size and wind, it’s more of a kitesurfing day than a paddling day.

Wednesday the 30th gets sketchy – 11.5ft in the morning with an 11-second period, combined energy at 2767 – that’s very strong. But there’s a risk of thunderstorms and it’s still onshore. Afternoon drops to 8.2ft but still onshore. Over 8.2ft is only for experts, and honestly, the conditions are going to be punishing.

Thursday the 1st of October – the morning’s still 7.2ft at 9 seconds, fresh cross-onshore at 30 km/h, combined energy 1294. Still lumpy, still not inviting. The afternoon fades fast to 3ft.

Honestly, the whole 16-day window is poor. There’s no standout session on offer. The only real size comes late in the run, but it’s blown out and lumpy, and the period is too short to hold any shape. If you’re a beginner, that Tuesday and Wednesday jump well over the 5ft mark, so stay out of it. If you’re an expert, even you’ll be frustrated by the lack of clean face.

There’s a gap of poor conditions right through from the 18th to the 24th – nearly a week of flatness – and even when the swell shows up, the wind kills it. Pelican Watch is fairly consistent as breaks go, but when the conditions are this rough, it doesn’t matter. Forecasts can change, but right now I’d be finding something else to do.

Stay salty.

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