Pelican Watch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, ‘cause we’ve got a long dry spell ahead. Pelican Watch is looking pretty flat and messy for the foreseeable future. There’s a big gap with nothing on offer, and that’s just the way it is for now.

The first tiny glimpse of a wave isn't until the morning of Sunday, September 13th. We’re talking about a 0.5 ft SSE swell with a 10-second period and light cross-off winds. It’s weak and uninspiring, with a combined energy of only 65. It might get you a couple of grovelly rides, but it’s barely worth the walk down. After that, it’s back to the flatness.

From the 10th through the 18th, we're looking at a serious run of tiny, poor surf. The heights stay around 0.5 ft to 1 ft, and there’s just no power. We’re seeing a lot of onshore or cross-off winds, but it doesn’t even matter because there’s nothing to push. It’s a complete drought until that little pulse. The ENE swell that arrives on the 19th is short-period and junky, not really offering any quality.

Now, for the one glimmer of hope, we have to look all the way out to the morning of Tuesday, September 24th. The long-range models are showing a significant 12 ft E groundswell, with a strong 10-second period and a massive combined energy of 2124. The wind is forecast to be clean and cross-off from the NNW, and in the afternoon, it goes totally glassy. It’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not certain.

But here’s the catch, and it’s a big one. That size of swell is simply too big for Pelican Watch. The forecast itself notes that it's predicted to be too big for this break. At 3.5m, this is not a beginner wave and it will be a heavy, expert-only affair. The swell will be wrapping in, but it could be a lot to handle. Before that, on the 23rd, the swell is still big but the winds are messier. The 25th looks like the swell drops back down but the wind turns south and ruins it.

Basically, we have a solid 13-day stretch with nothing but flat, tiny, and poor conditions. Then we get one forecasted bomb that might be too much of a good thing. The water temp is a warm 28°, which is about average for the season, so you won’t be freezing for those long waits between sets. From the 19th to the 22nd, with that fresh onshore wind and building ENE swell, it’s going to be a choppy, lumpy mess—more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day.

Keep your board in the car, but don't hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but this is a lean stretch.

Rusty.

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