Pelican Watch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you—this outlook for the next 16 days is a bit of a tough one. The swell is just too small and the wind too messy for it to be much fun for paddle surfing. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf, with no real standout sessions to get excited about. The first decent recommendation doesn’t arrive until the 11th of August, and even then it’s a struggle.

Let’s break it down, starting from the 11th. Tuesday morning at Pelican Watch sees a tiny 1 ft SSW swell with a short 5-second period, and the wave energy is weak (16). The wind is light offshore from the west, so the face will be clean, but honestly, there’s just not enough water moving to do anything with it. The water temperature is sitting at 83°, which is about 0.7° above the norm for this time of year—pretty average, nothing to write home about.

Tuesday afternoon gets even smaller, with a 0.7 ft ESE swell and a longer 9-second period, but the cross-off wind from the southwest picks up to 16 mph, making it a struggle. The combined energy drops to 11. It’s a no-go.

Wednesday the 12th is more of the same: 1.0 ft to 0.7 ft swells, short periods, and light to gentle cross-off breezes. The energy is weak (12 to 20). Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th offer no real improvement—tiny 1.0 ft to 2 ft swells, mostly from the south or southeast, with onshore or cross-off winds that keep the surface clean but the waves too small to ride. The energy stays below 30.

Saturday the 15th sees a slight bump in swell height, with 3 ft to 5 ft from the east-northeast, but the period is a dismal 4 to 6 seconds—essentially windswell. The wind is onshore from the east at 12 mph, so it’s choppy and lumpy. The energy gets up to 138 (moderate), but the quality is poor. This setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, to be honest.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are back to small, weak swells, with cross-onshore winds making the surface bumpy. The energy hovers between 35 and 67. From Tuesday the 18th through to Saturday the 22nd, the swell stays tiny—1 ft to 2 ft—with periods of 8 to 12 seconds at times. The energy is consistently weak (under 100). The best part of this stretch is Saturday the 22nd morning, when the wind goes glassy (0 mph from the southeast), but the swell is only 1 ft with an 8-second period (25 energy). It’s a clean, flat sheet of water—great for a paddle, but not for a wave.

Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th see a bit more size: on the 24th afternoon, we get a 5 ft ENE swell with a 6-second period, and the energy jumps to 229 (strong). But the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph, making it lumpy and messy. That’s expert-only territory in these conditions, and even then, it’s not worth it.

Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th drop off again, with 4 ft to 3 ft swells, onshore winds, and lumpy conditions. The energy is moderate to strong (68 to 204), but the quality is poor.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, there’s nothing that stands out as good. The tiny window of glassy conditions on the 22nd morning is the cleanest you’ll see, but there’s no wave to ride. If you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your moment. Otherwise, the whole 16-day window is a blank run for quality surf. The area is just locked in a flat spell, and forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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