Pelican Watch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one to write. I’ve looked at the whole 16-day window, and the honest truth is, there’s nothing to get excited about.

The Overall Pattern
We’re looking at a long, frustrating stretch of poor surf. The first surfable waves don’t even show up until Sunday, September 13th, and even then, it’s barely a tickle. We’ve got a solid gap of about eight days from the start of the period with absolutely nothing worth paddling out for. The wind is mostly a mess, and when the swell does try to show, it’s usually coming from the wrong direction or getting torn up by onshore breezes.

The Wait
From now through to Saturday, September 12th, it’s a write-off. The wind is all over the place – onshore, cross-onshore, or just plain strong – and the swell is tiny, with heights mostly under 2 ft. The combined wave energy is in the weak, two-digit range (14, 7, 34, 14... you get the picture). It’s just not happening.

The "Best" on Offer
Finally, on Sunday morning, September 13th, we get a tiny window. The spot is Pelican Watch. The swell is a pathetic 2 ft from the SE with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is still weak at 97. The only saving grace is a light WNW breeze that’s offshore, keeping it clean. The water temp is sitting at a warm 83°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re staring at the flat water. But honestly, this is “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” – and that’s being generous. It’s a beginner break, so if you’re learning, you might get a knee-high roller, but don’t expect much.

The Second Week
The rest of the run is a continuation of the same story. The swell direction shifts to the ENE, and the heights struggle to get over 5 ft, but the wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore from the NE or ENE. By Thursday, September 17th, and Friday, September 18th, we see some bigger numbers – 6 ft and 8 ft – with combined energy climbing into the strong range (595 on the 18th). But the wind is just never right. It’s onshore or cross-onshore, turning what could be a decent-sized swell into a choppy, lumpy mess. For a beach break, that setup is more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers.

The Bottom Line
There is no standout session. There is no “best day” to recommend. The whole 16-day window is a blank run for quality surf. Pelican Watch is your only hope, and even that is a 1/10 on a good day. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d save your energy and wax for another time.

Rusty.

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