Jenkinsons (Point Pleasant Beach) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, the next week and a half is looking pretty grim for Jenkinsons (Point Pleasant Beach). We’ve got a run of tiny, weak, short-period slop that’s going to have you checking your leash for rust more than actually surfing. The water is a warm 73°, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year, so the air might feel good, but the ocean’s just not cooperating.

The 15th through the 23rd is a flat spell mostly. Tuesday the 15th starts with a weak 3ft at 5 seconds from the ENE, and it just gets smaller from there. The wind is mostly onshore or cross, chopping up what little is there. You’ll see a lot of mornings with a clean look but almost nothing to push you. There’s a couple of afternoons like Saturday the 19th where it bumps to 3ft but it’s a messy cross-onshore 25 km/h breeze, so it's pretty much a washout. Don’t get too excited about that moderate combined swell energy of 82 either – it’s directionless and weak.

Honestly, the only thing worth paddling out for in this whole window is Thursday the 24th. That morning we finally get a bit of life with 4ft from the ESE at 7 seconds. It’s not huge, but the wind goes glassy – dead calm – and the water cleans right up. The combined energy jumps to 122, which is the first time we’ve seen moderate energy all stretch. It’s surfable but it’s what I’d call very ordinary. The period is short, so it’ll be a bit bumpy and sectiony, but at least you’re not just sitting there bobbing.

Then the 25th and 26th get blown out by a strong offshore and cross-offshore flow – 35 km/h from the WNW and NW. That’s going to be a skating rink with waves under 1ft. Forget it.

There’s one more interesting blip on the 29th. The morning is glassy again with 1ft, but the afternoon is where it happens – the swell direction shifts to NNE and jumps to 4ft, and the energy jumps to 143. Still short period at 5 seconds, and it’s a light cross-shore, but it’s a sign things might be waking up.

The real standout, though, is the 30th. That’s a full week and a half from now, so treat it as promising but not locked in. We’ve got a proper swell showing – 7ft from the ENE at 8 seconds. That’s a solid step up. The combined energy reads 558, which is strong, and the wind is a moderate cross-shore from the N in the morning and a light cross-on from the NE in the afternoon. This is a bigger, more powerful swell. But here’s the thing – at 7ft, this is pushing it for beginners, and with the period under 8 seconds, it’s going to be a bit raw. It’s an expert-only kind of day at this beach/jetty setup. The crowds are likely given the “often” label, so get out early or be ready to share.

The stretch between the 24th and the 30th has a few days of nothing on the 25th and 26th, so you’ll want to pick your battles. The 29th afternoon and the 30th morning are the most interesting, but that long-period groundswell they keep hinting at isn’t here yet. It’s all short-period windswell. For a beach break like this, the 8-second period on the 30th will close out some, but with that much energy, there should be some corners to find.

Overall, the next two weeks are mostly a bust until that final push right at the end. Keep an eye on the 30th – that’s the one that could actually get you a few proper waves.

Rusty

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