Flies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s look at what we’ve got for Flies. I’ll level with you mate, it’s a tough stretch ahead.

Overall, we’re looking at a long, quiet run. There’s nothing really on offer for the first ten days or so, and the rest of the outlook doesn’t give us much to get excited about either. We’re talking almost two full weeks of flat to tiny, messy conditions. A lot of north-easterly and easterly winds are going to keep things pretty ordinary. The only glimmer comes right at the very end, but even that is nothing special.

We start off Monday 6th July with some rain and a stiff easterly breeze blowing cross-on at 22 mph, bumping up that 4 ft swell into a lumpy mess. Combined energy is only 53 (weak). That’s a no from me. The water is sitting at 72°, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year.

The whole first week is basically a write-off. We’ve got days of fresh cross-shore winds, tiny swell under 3 ft, and period below 8 seconds – that’s short-period wind chop, not groundswell. Even when the wind drops to a gentle breeze on Wednesday 8th July, the swell is only 1 ft. Not worth paddling out for.

Friday 10th July morning is interesting, with a clean cross-off breeze from the WSW at 9 mph, but the swell is still only 2 ft with a short period of 6 seconds. It’s clean, but there’s no power. The afternoon stays clean but with the same issue. This doesn’t count as a standout because the wave size is just too small to do much on.

We go through another whole week of similar – tiny surf with constant cross or cross-on winds. The swell occasionally climbs to 4 ft on Sunday 12th July afternoon, but it’s coming from the ENE at a short 5 seconds and the wind is howling cross-on at 12 mph from the ESE. The combined energy hits 113 (moderate), but the conditions are choppy and poor. It’s a pass.

Now, the first real flicker of hope comes on Thursday 16th July morning. We finally see some offshore wind from the WNW at just 6 mph and the swell is 3 ft from the south at 7 seconds. The combined energy is 99, just shy of moderate. It’s clean, but the surf is described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” That’s about as average as it gets, but it’s the cleanest we’ve seen.

Then, on Friday 17th July morning, we get a real surprise. Glassy conditions with the wind from the NNW at only 3 mph. The swell is 3 ft from the south, period 7 seconds, and the combined energy is 97. This is the best looking window in the whole forecast. It’s a small day, very clean, and the kind of morning where you might get a few fun little waves to yourself. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you could have company, but with surf this small, only the dedicated will be out. This is the pick – Friday 17th July morning.

It doesn’t last. That afternoon the wind swings south and goes cross-on, and it’s back to poor conditions. There’s another glassy morning on Sunday 19th July, with 3 ft from the south, but the period is still short at 7 seconds and combined energy is only 71 (weak). A repeat of the same story.

The final days of the forecast are a write-off, with heavy rain and near-gale force northerly winds on Tuesday 21st July hitting 34 mph. That’s not surf weather, that’s a day to stay home.

So, the takeaway. This is a long, bleak run for Flies. The only day that comes close to being worth the effort is Friday 17th July morning when it’s glassy, clean, and you might just find a knee-to-waist high wave with a bit of shape. It won’t be a classic, but it’s the best of a bad lot.

Rusty.

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