Flies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is a tough one, mates. I’m looking at Flies, a beach and jetty setup, and honestly, the next couple of weeks are a real test of patience. The swell is coming from the southwest, which is the optimum direction, but the size and wind are just not playing ball for a clean, rideable wave.

First up, we’ve got a solid block of nothing. From Thursday, July 9th, right through to the end of the day on Sunday, July 19th, there’s hardly a wave worth paddling for. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and when it’s not tiny, the wind is howling cross-shore or onshore, turning it into a messy chop. The combined wave energy is weak, sitting in the double digits or low triple digits (like 32 to 82), so there’s just no real grunt in the water. It’s a long flat spell, which is a total bummer.

Now, things finally get a little interesting on Monday, July 20th. The swell bumps up to 6 ft in the morning, climbing to 7 ft in the afternoon, both from the SSW. The combined energy jumps to 235 and then 413, so there’s finally some moderate to strong juice in the water. But here’s the rub – the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. This is a beach setup here, so with that size and bad wind, it’s looking more like a kite-surfing session than a clean paddle-surfing wave. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Tuesday, July 21st and Wednesday, July 22nd are the best on offer, but it’s a real caveat. The swell holds at 6 ft to 7 ft from the SSW on Tuesday, with a 7-second period, and the energy is moderate to strong (299 to 340). The wind turns light, which is a big plus. On Wednesday morning, it’s still 6 ft with light onshore wind, but the energy is 293. The 7-second period is short, so these waves will be a bit crumbly, but the lighter wind makes them more surfable than the previous days. The crowd factor is a “sometimes” situation, so you might have some company, but it’s not a zoo.

For the standouts, I’d say the Tuesday morning, July 21st, is the pick of the bunch. The swell is 6 ft from the SSW, with a light cross-shore breeze. It’s not perfect, but it’s the most rideable we’ve seen. The Wednesday morning, July 22nd, is a close second, with 6 ft and light wind. Remember, over 8 ft is expert territory, so the 7 ft Tuesday afternoon is a bit more manageable for strong intermediates, but the wind is worse.

After that, it drops off again. By Thursday, July 23rd, the swell fades to 3 ft with a moderate southerly wind, and it’s back to choppy. Friday, July 24th, has a brief moment of glassy conditions with 3 ft from the SSE, but the energy is weak (78), so it’s just a brief, small window.

So, look, if you’re desperate, aim for the 21st and 22nd of July. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off for clean, decent surf. The long-range forecast (end of July) is promising, but it’s too far out to bank on. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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