Flies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Flies (beach/jetty) are looking pretty grim. There’s a long stretch of poor surf conditions ahead, so don’t get your hopes up for anything decent for a while.

We’ve got a real dry spell on our hands. From Wednesday, 15 July right through to the end of Saturday, 18 July, it’s almost all “poor surf conditions” with tiny swell, mostly below 2 ft, and weak energy (readings often in the teens to low 30s). The wind is mostly cross-off or cross-on, but the swell just isn’t there. Thursday morning, 16 July, you’ve got a 2 ft S swell at 6 seconds, but the combined energy is a measly 36 – not worth paddling out for.

The only glimmer comes on Sunday, 19 July, with a morning pulse of 5 ft SSW swell at 7 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 345 (moderate). The wind is clean cross-off from the W at 12 mph, so it’ll be tidy. But it’s still only a marginal forecast – the score is a 1 out of 10, and by afternoon it drops back to poor. Not a standout, just a brief window of okay-ish waves.

Then on Monday, 20 July, the swell bumps up to 5-5 ft S at 9 seconds, with energy hitting 383-434, but the wind turns onshore or cross-on from the E/SE, making it choppy and messy – poor conditions again.

The real highlight, if you can call it that, is Wednesday, 22 July. The morning delivers a 6 ft S swell at 9 seconds, with combined energy of 471 (moderate) and a clean offshore wind from the NW at 9 mph. That’s the best on offer – the only time we see “expect good surf conditions” with a score of 2. The swell size is 6 ft, which is solid for intermediates, but it’s not too big for most. The 9-second period gives decent shape, and with offshore winds, it’ll be clean. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have a few others around, but it’s worth a look. After that, it’s back to poor surf and small, weak swell for the rest of the month.

The water temperature is 71°F, which is just 0.2°F above the long-term average – pretty normal for this time of year, nothing unusual.

So, bottom line: the only true chance for a paddle is the morning of Wednesday, 22 July. The rest of the 16-day window is a write-off – small, weak, and wind-affected. There’s a solid gap of poor days before and after that one window. Don’t hold your breath, but forecasts can change.

Rusty

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