Flies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards over the next couple of weeks. I'm not gonna lie to you, Flies is going to be a tough beat for a while. The pattern we're in is pretty flat and messy, and we've got a long stretch of nothing much to get excited about.

We're looking at a real quiet spell from now right through to early next week. For the morning of Wednesday, July 8th, there's a tiny bit of swell, about 1.0ft from the SE, but with a light north breeze. It's clean, but honestly, there's just no energy in the water – the combined energy is only 16, which is weak. It's not worth paddling out for.

Things stay ordinary right through to the end of next week. The wind is mostly cross or onshore, the swell is small and weak, and the period is short – below 8 seconds for most of it. The combined energy stays below 100 for days on end. This means the combination of swell, wind and period just isn't offering any quality rideable waves. For instance, Saturday morning the 11th shows a brief window with a cleaner 3ft S swell and a gentle breeze, described as 'surfable but very ordinary'. That's the best we get for a while, but it’s a pretty low bar.

We have a real gap here. From July 8th, there is nothing that qualifies as good. It's basically a week and a half of poor surf conditions through to the middle of July. You see the wind picking up on Tuesday the 14th – a strong cross-shore from the SW at 25 mph with 5ft S swell, but the combined energy is a moderate 151. Even with that bit of size, the wind is just going to tear it to pieces. With that messy cross-chop, it’s looking more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day at Flies.

Now, hold on. There is finally a light at the end of the tunnel. The first true standout crops up on Monday morning, July 20th. This is the one we’ve been waiting for. We’ve got a 7ft S swell rolling in, with a period of 8 seconds. The key here is the wind: glassy. SSE at just 3 mph – that's as clean as it gets. The combined energy is strong, hitting 951. It’s an exposed beach/jetty, so it’ll be handling that S swell directly. With that much size (over 5ft), it's going to be solid, potentially a bit much for beginners, but for anyone comfortable in that range, conditions will be excellent. The water temperature is 72°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Just a heads-up, that Monday afternoon the wind swings onshore and it gets messy again. So that Monday morning window is your absolute target. Beyond that, we see a couple of marginal mornings, but that Monday morning the 20th is the clear standout from the whole run. It’s still over a week away, so keep an eye on the forecasts, but it’s looking really promising.

-Rusty

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