Flies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days at Flies are a real mixed bag, and we’ve got to wade through a lot of ordinary to find the one moment that’s worth paddling out for. The pattern starts quiet, builds to a solid pulse mid-week, then fades back into a long stretch of nothing special.

We kick off on Monday, July 20th, with tiny surf. The morning has a weak 3 ft south swell at a short 7 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 76. It’s glassy, which is nice, but there’s just no oomph. That afternoon, the wind swings south and kills it completely – 2 ft and onshore. Don’t bother.

Tuesday, July 21st, is a write-off. Strong onshore winds from the SE at 19 mph, building a bit of bumpy 4 ft to 4 ft south swell, but the period is a pathetic 5 to 6 seconds. The energy is still low (80 to 112). It’s lumpy, messy, and not worth your time.

Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday, July 22nd. The morning is tricky – a 8 ft south swell with a 9-second period arrives, but the wind is a strong cross-offshore at 19 mph, and the energy is already a moderate 846. It’s clean, but that wind is a handful. The real magic happens Wednesday afternoon. The swell holds at 8 ft south, period still 9 seconds, but the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-offshore. The combined energy jumps to a very strong 1573 (moderate to strong wave energy). The water temp is about average for the time of year. This is the window for experienced surfers only – 8 ft is big, and the power is there. The south swell direction is a good match for the optimum SW direction. The break is a beach/jetty setup, so it’s exposed and will handle that energy. It’s fairly consistent here, and crowds are possible. This is the best on offer, no question.

Thursday, July 23rd, drops off quickly. Morning sees 4 ft south swell with an 8-second period, clean with a cross-offshore wind, but the energy is only 239, and it’s described as marginal. The afternoon is 4 ft and cross-shore, still not great. From Friday, July 24th, right through to Tuesday, August 4th, it’s a long, flat goodbye. You’ll see small south swells in the 2 ft to 5 ft range, but the periods are short (5 to 8 seconds), the winds are mostly onshore or cross, and the energy is weak (25 to 161). There are a few clean mornings (like July 29th and 30th) with offshore winds, but the swell is too small to do anything – 2 ft to 2 ft. It’s a nine-day gap with no real recommendations. The occasional “surfable but very ordinary” comment sums it up. For a beach/jetty, this stretch is more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers, given the strong cross-on winds and lumpy conditions on days like July 27th and 28th.

So, if you’re keen, you’ve got one shot: Wednesday afternoon, July 22nd. It’s big, it’s powerful, and it’s clean. For the rest, it’s a long wait. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s slim pickings.

Rusty.

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