Flies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s in store at Flies. Gotta be straight with you – we’re looking at a long, grim stretch of weather and waves for the jetty. The pattern starts with a lot of wind and rain, and the good news is mighty thin on the ground. There are some small windows where it cleans up, but the swell is tiny and weak. This place is exposed to the SW, and our guidance tells me that's the sweet spot for direction, but we just aren't getting any real love from the ocean.

The entire first week is a write-off. Monday the 6th starts with heavy rain and a strong 22 mph onshore wind, and the wave energy is next to nothing. That sets the tone. For the next several mornings and afternoons, it’s just rowdy onshore slop or weak, messy junk. The only hope in the near term is Wednesday morning, July 8th. The wind goes light cross-off and the surf cleans up, but the combined energy is a paltry 16, and we’re looking at a tiny 1 ft swell. You could go for a float, but don't expect to ride much of anything.

The wait continues through the rest of the first week and into the second. There’s a blip on Friday the 10th morning with clean conditions and a small 3 ft swell from the SSW. The energy is still weak at 52, but the light cross-off wind makes it the most surfable moment of the first ten days. It’s a desperation pick, but it’s all we’ve got.

The biggest pulse in the whole forecast arrives around Monday the 14th. We see the combined wave energy jump to 140 on Tuesday morning the 14th, and then up to 250 on Tuesday afternoon. That’s a moderate groundswell of 6 ft from the SW. However, the wind is a problem – it swings cross-shore and cross-onshore, creating chop. The period is short at 5 to 6 seconds, so it won't be particularly well-shaped. By Wednesday the 15th morning, the wind goes light cross-off and it cleans up, with the swell dropping to 4 ft and energy at 126. That Wednesday morning is likely the best it’s going to get for anyone who isn’t a beginner. For the groms and learners, a 5 ft to 6 ft swell on a beach/jetty set-up with onshore wind will be too much and too messy. For the experienced crew, keep an eye on that Wednesday morning window.

The final standout is on Saturday the 18th. We get a 5 ft SSW swell with a clean, light cross-off breeze in the morning. The energy is a solid 174. The period is still short at 6 seconds, so the waves will be fun but lack real punch. By the afternoon it gets messy with the wind picking up and the swell jumping to 7 ft – that’s expert only territory and the onshore wind makes it a full-on battle.

Crowds at Flies can be an issue sometimes, but honestly, with this run of poor conditions, I wouldn't worry about anyone else being out. The near-term calls are reliable: it’s going to be bad. The Wednesday the 15th and Saturday the 18th windows are promising but less certain that far out. Overall, we're in a holding pattern. Keep your board waxed for that Wednesday the 15th morning.

Rusty.

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