Elwha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’.

Honestly, mate, the outlook is pretty bleak. We’ve got a long stretch of barely-there swell and mostly ordinary conditions. The only break on the cards is Elwha, a sheltered river mouth that needs the right direction to work, and it’s just not getting it with any real energy. Don’t expect much at all this week or the next.

We start off on Thursday morning, 20th August, with the best we’re going to see. Swell is a weak 4 ft from the west with a period of 11 seconds, giving combined energy of 279 (moderate). It’s glassy and clean with a tiny ENE breeze at 5 mph. The water is a frigid 52°, which is a massive 6° colder than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual and honestly just means it’ll feel even more miserable between waves. But hey, the waves are surfable, just very ordinary. By Thursday afternoon the swell drops to 3 ft.

Friday morning, 21st August, the swell drops further to 3 ft from the west (period 9 seconds, combined energy 109). Still glassy with light easterly wind, so the shoulder-high or smaller sets will be clean. But the energy is weak. By Friday afternoon the wind swings to the west and picks up to a cross-shore, leaving things choppy. From there it’s a sorry run of tiny, weak swell with poor surf conditions, a lot of cross and onshore wind, and combined energy values dropping to two digits. You’ll see a few days in there where the wind goes glassy again, like the morning of Monday 24th with zero wind, but swell is only 1 ft and 7 seconds – nothing to get excited about. The period briefly climbs to 13 seconds on Wednesday 26th August, but that long-period, small groundswell (combined energy only 83) is coming from west-southwest in a cross-shore wind 25 mph, making it a messy, blown-out affair.

The truth is, after that first Thursday morning, there’s nothing that qualifies as a standout. The best you can say is there are occasional moments of glassy water – like the mornings of Saturday 29th August and Monday 31st August – but the swell is tiny (1 ft to 2 ft) and weak. For a river break that’s inconsistent at the best of times, this is a blank run that feels pretty normal for the area. It’s not the sort of setup that even gets interesting for kite surfing; the wind is mostly too light or cross for that.

So, if you’ve got to paddle out, that first Thursday morning, 20th August, is your only real chance at something small and clean. After that, you’re waiting a very long time. The forecasts can change, but for now, you’d be better off doing something else.

Rusty.

Read more