Elwha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get straight into it.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and tough around here. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and crossed-up swell with hardly any push behind it. You’re gonna have to be patient if you’re keen for a wave. The first real chance of anything even worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until around Wednesday the 12th, and even then it’s pretty average. We’re looking at a good week of waiting before that, with most days offering nothing but knee-high dribble and messy conditions.

Let’s break it down. From Wednesday the 5th through to Tuesday the 11th, it’s a write-off. Swell heights hover around 2ft to 3ft with weak energy readings, mostly in the 15 to 118 range - that’s weak, folks. The wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, chopping up what little there is. There are a couple of glassy mornings, like Thursday the 6th and Sunday the 9th, but the swell is just too small and weak to do anything with. It’s a good time to fix your fins or catch up on sleep.

The first slight glimmer comes on Wednesday afternoon the 12th. We see the swell bump up to 3ft from the west with a period of 7 seconds, and the wind goes glassy. It’s the first time the comment actually says “surfable” but it’s still very ordinary. The energy is just moderate at 103. Not worth a special trip, but if you’re desperate, you might get a few crumbly ones.

Thursday the 13th is probably the pick of the whole forecast, and that’s not saying a lot. The swell pushes up to 4ft from the west with a period of 8 seconds, and the energy climbs to 147-154, which is our first solid moderate reading. The morning is crossed up, but the afternoon goes glassy with a light NNE breeze. That’s our standout window - clean conditions, a bit more size, and the most energy we’ll see for a while. It won’t be epic, but it’ll be the most fun you’ll have in this stretch.

After that, it fades back out. Friday the 14th drops back to 3ft with cross conditions, and by the weekend we’re back in the 3ft range with weak energy. The following week, from the 16th onward, is more of the same. Small, weak west swell, mostly crossed up, with a few glassy mornings and a bit of energy here and there, but nothing that gets the heart racing. There is one interesting blip on Thursday the 20th with a long 12-second period showing up, but the swell is tiny at 2ft, so it’s more of a tease than anything.

Talkin’ about Elwha (River) - it’s a sheltered river break, and it handles the west-northwest swell okay, but the optimum direction is WNW, and we’re seeing mostly west swell. The water temp is a big story here - it’s sitting at 52°F, which is a whopping 7° colder than normal for this time of year. That is very unusual, so you’re gonna want the thickest suit you own, a hood, gloves, the works.

Crowds at Elwha are only “sometimes” a factor, but with conditions this average, I wouldn’t worry too much about company. It’s a spot that breaks on the river, so the long-period swell on the 20th might actually work in its favor, but the size is just not there.

So, bottom line: this is a lean spell. The one real standout is Thursday the 13th afternoon - get out there if you can, because it’s the best we’re going to see for a while. Otherwise, keep the board in the car and the expectations low.

Rusty.

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