Elwha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for the Elwha.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—this outlook is a tough one. For the next couple of weeks, we’re looking at a real quiet stretch. The first solid recommendation doesn’t pop up until the morning of Monday, September 22nd. That’s a gap of about 13 days with nothing really worth paddling out for. The wait is gonna feel long.

Before that, we’ve got a lot of small, weak swell. The water is sitting at a chilly 52°, which is a full 6° colder than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, so you’ll want a thick hood if you’re even thinking of getting in during that first week. The energy is low, with values mostly in the double digits (72, 62, 50) and only a couple of weak pulses in the 100-200 range around the 10th and 11th. The wind is mostly glassy or light cross-shore, which is a positive, but the wave heights are tiny—hovering around 1.0 ft to 2 ft. The swell direction is a consistent W or WNW, with periods generally between 8 and 12 seconds, so it’s a mix of short and medium period. Nothing that’s going to get your heart racing.

Now, let’s talk about the one true standout. The window opens on Monday, September 22nd. The Elwha (a river break) is the only game in town. The morning shows a solid 7 ft swell from the WSW, with a period of 13 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 1474, which is strong to very strong. The wind is light cross-shore from the ENE, which is a good thing. The break is sheltered, so it’ll handle this size okay, but remember, over 8 ft is expert territory. This is pushing 8 ft in the afternoon, so it’s for the advanced crew only. It’s an inconsistent spot that rarely breaks, so the fact that it’s showing on this day is notable. The expert level is a heads-up too. The swell direction is WSW, which is close to the optimum WNW direction for this spot, so it should wrap in well.

The afternoon of the 22nd keeps the 8 ft swell from the WSW, period drops to 11 seconds, and the energy is even bigger at 1511. The wind turns more easterly, still light cross-shore. This is the best of the whole 16 days, but it’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

For beginners, this is a no-go. Any wave over 5 ft, and especially this 7 ft+ groundswell, is too big. The crowd factor at Elwha says "sometimes," so with this kind of swell, you can expect a few of the local rippers out there, but it won’t be a total zoo.

The setup on the 22nd is a river break with a long-period groundswell. That can mean the waves might break a bit straight, but for this spot, the shape should be decent. For the rest of the 16 days, you’re better off waiting for the next storm track to fill in.

Rusty.

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