Elwha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, checking in with the only spot that popped up in the log for this area, and to be honest, it’s been a tough run. Let’s get straight into it.

We’re looking at Elwha (river). Right off the bat, the water is a frigid 51°F which is a whopping 6°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s properly unusual, so a thick wetsuit is non-negotiable. The entire 16-day window is a real struggle. For the first eight days, from this Sunday the 13th all the way through the following Sunday the 20th, it’s pretty much a dead loss. I’m talking tiny knee-to-thigh-high slop, mostly in the 1 ft to 3 ft range, with weak wave energy (anywhere from 19 to 103 on the energy scale), and a short, weak period of 7 to 9 seconds. It’s just not offering anything worth paddling for. That’s over a week of flatness you can almost see.

There’s a flicker of something around Monday the 21st, but the swell is coming from the WNW with a fresh cross-onshore breeze blowing 19 mph. The swell height gets to 3 ft, but it’s so chopped up and lumpy you’d be fighting a losing battle. The energy (471) is building, but the conditions are just poor for surfing.

The only real window that gets my heart beating a little is about ten days out. Tuesday the 22nd morning shows some promise. We’ve got a 5 ft groundswell from the west with a long 12-second period, and moderate wave energy (546). The wind is light and cross-shore from the east, so the surface should be clean with just small ripples. That’s a proper standby. However, this is a shorebreak-prone river mouth, so that long-period energy might make it a bit tricky with waves heaping up fast.

The true standout, though, is a full eleven days from now: Thursday the 24th in the morning. The winds turn cross-offshore from the east, the skies clear, and the waves clean right up. You’re looking at a solid 6 ft of swell from the west on a clean 10-second period. The combined wave energy hits 648, which is a solid, surfable punch. The forecast flags this as "expect good surf conditions." This is the one to keep an eye on. It’s still a long way out, so treat it as a bit of a long-shot promise, but the signs are lining up perfectly. For the rest of the window after that, it drops back into small, choppy, or blown-out nothingness.

So, for the next week and a half, don’t bother. Hold out for that Thursday the 24th morning session at Elwha. It’s the only true highlight on the board.

- Rusty

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