Samoa Peninsula Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right on, folks. Rusty here, checking in from the Samoa Peninsula. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way.

Alright, straight up: the next 16 days look pretty grim for surf. The problem is a persistent onshore or cross-onshore wind from the north and north-northwest that just won’t quit. That means a lot of choppy, blown-out conditions, even when there’s some swell in the water. The water temp is sitting at 53°F for the first scrap of swell, which is a bit colder than we’d expect for this time of year.

We start on Friday afternoon, July 10th, with a tiny 2ft swell from the southwest at a very long 15 seconds. The energy is weak (321) and the wind is cross-on, so it’s poor. No good.

Saturday and Sunday, July 11th and 12th, see the swell build to 3ft and then 5ft, coming from the north-west. The period drops from 10 seconds to 9 seconds, but the wind remains a problem. The swell energy climbs to moderate (617) by Sunday morning, but the wind is onshore or cross-on, so it’s still messy. Not worth paddling out.

The whole first week is a write-off. Monday July 13th through Wednesday July 15th, we get 5ft to 7ft of swell, but it’s all short-period (7-8 seconds), and the wind stays in the north. The energy gets strong (704 on Wednesday afternoon), but it’s just a lumpy, wind-affected mess.

Thursday July 16th is the closest we get to a “maybe.” The swell peaks at 8ft from the north-west, with strong energy (1090), but it’s still cross-onshore. The forecast calls it marginal, and that’s being generous. At 8ft, this is only for more experienced surfers, and the wind won’t do it any favors.

Now, here’s a little glimmer. Friday morning July 17th, the wind swings to a light west-northwest, and the swell is 6ft from the north-west. The energy is very strong (998), and the wind is light cross-on, so it’s the best of a bad bunch. It’s a shame it’s a one-off, because the wind shifts back onshore by the afternoon.

The second week is more of the same. Saturday July 18th has a small 3ft groundswell from the west-northwest with a very long 16-second period. The energy is moderate (839), and the wind is light onshore, so it’s clean but tiny. That long period will make it break straight at the beach, so it’s not ideal.

From Sunday July 19th through the end of the forecast on July 25th, it’s back to onshore or cross-onshore winds from the north, with swell ranging from 5ft to 7ft, all short-period, and all poor. There’s just no stand-out window.

So, the honest truth: there’s not a single true standout here. The best session is probably Friday morning July 17th, with the light wind and 6ft swell, but even that’s a gamble. Otherwise, the whole 16-day window is a string of days you’d be better off staying home, tuning your board, or heading to the lake. The wind is the villain here.

Stay patient, folks. Swell is coming, but the wind needs to get its act together.

Rusty.

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