Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Avalon 15th Street for the next 16 days. To be straight with you, it’s a tough stretch for any decent surf here. This is a beginner-friendly break and the swell is pretty much tiny or weak for most of the run. The water temperature is sitting at 78°, which is 7° warmer than usual for this time of year—very unusual, you’ll feel like you’re surfing in a bath.

Right now, through this Friday and into the weekend, we’re looking at flat to knee-high dribble. Swell from the SSE and SE is running at 1 ft to 3 ft, with periods all over the place but mostly short—4 to 6 seconds. The combined energy is low, between 13 and 45 (weak). Winds are a bit messy, cross and onshore, so it’s not doing us any favors. Nothing worth paddling out for.

Into the start of next week, Monday the 14th through to Wednesday the 16th, the swell holds tiny—1.0 ft to 2 ft out of the E and SE, periods still short. We get a few cleaner windows with offshore and cross-off winds from the NNW and WNW, but the swell just isn’t there to make it happen. Combined energy stays weak (16–45).

The middle of the week the 17th through the 19th is more of the same: 1.0 ft to 2 ft, onshore flow, and weak energy. This is really a stretch where the board stays in the car.

Now, there’s a bit of a pulse starting around Sunday the 20th and into Monday the 21st. Swell picks up to 5 ft–5 ft from the ENE, with periods still short at 7–8 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 217–308 (moderate). Winds are mostly cross-off from the N and cross from the ENE. The surf will be bigger, but with such short period and the break being a beach setup, it’s going to be lumpy and not well-shaped. It might look tempting, but conditions are still poor for a paddle surfer.

By Tuesday the 22nd, we see energy climbing further (399–427) with 5 ft swell from the E at 9 seconds. Winds are cross and cross-on from the ENE—not ideal. The height is getting into the zone where beginners should be wary, but the quality isn’t there.

The strongest push comes Wednesday the 23rd with 6 ft from the E, period 9 seconds, and combined energy reaching 869 (strong). There’s rain showers in the morning, and the wind is onshore from the SE at 9 mph. In the afternoon it goes light cross-on. That’s the biggest swell of the outlook, but the wind and shortish period mean it’s going to be messy. At over 5 ft and borderline 7 ft, this is getting too big for beginners and not clean enough for experienced surfers.

By the end of the outlook, Thursday the 24th to Saturday the 26th, the swell drops back to 3 ft–4 ft from the E. There’s a few morning windows with offshore flow from the WNW and light winds, and the combined energy stays moderate (94–235). But it’s still pretty ordinary, and the afternoons get choppy.

The standout here is marginal at best. If I had to point you to one window, Thursday the 24th morning has 4 ft from the E, period 10 seconds, with moderate offshore wind from the WNW (12 mph). The energy is moderate at 216. That’s about the cleanest you’ll see, but it’s just "surfable" rather than good. For a beginner, honestly, this is not the week to learn on. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing when the wind and swell match up.

So, no true standout days. It’s a long 16-day gap. Hopefully the pattern shifts.

Stay patient.
Rusty.

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