Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks at Avalon 15th Street.

To be straight with you, this is a tough 16-day stretch. We're looking at a long, dry run with next to nothing worth paddling out for. The combined swell energy barely cracks triple digits all period, hovering mostly in the weak range (low values like 26 on Monday, 33 Monday afternoon, 24 on Tuesday, and a few others in the teens and twenties). We’ve got tiny, weak swells with short, choppy periods, and messy winds most days. There’s no standout in the first week, and certainly no big swell on the horizon.

We kick off Monday, September 7, with a tiny 0.4m swell (that's about 1 feet) from the ENE at a short 7-second period. The water is notably much warmer than normal, sitting at 78°F with a positive anomaly of 6°F, but that’s little consolation when there’s no power to the waves. The morning does offer a glassy cross-off breeze from the NNE at 5 km/h (about 3 mph), making for clean conditions, but you’ll be scratching for anything ridable. By afternoon, the wind swings SSW, and the surf remains pathetic at 0.4m (1 ft), just poor quality.

Tuesday, September 8, is even worse. We drop to a knee-high 0.2m (0.7 ft) with a combined energy of just 9. The morning is clean with a WNW cross-off, but the swell is non-existent. By Wednesday, we see a slight bump to 0.7m (2 ft) from the SSW with a terrible 4-second period and cross winds at 20 km/h (12 mph), creating choppy, poor conditions. That afternoon, it climbs to 1.0m (3 ft) with a fresh cross-onshore wind at 30 km/h (19 mph) – a 48 unit mixed energy, but honestly, it’s messy, lumpy, and unappealing. If you’re a kite surfer, that afternoon might look more interesting than it does for a paddle surfer.

Thursday, September 10, gives us the best of a bad bunch. The morning swell is 1.1m (4 ft) from the SSW, period still short at 6 seconds, but with a clean cross-off wind from the WSW at 25 km/h (16 mph) (energy 81). It’s the most energy we see in the first week, and while the swell is small and weak, the conditions are clean. Still, it's hardly a gold star.

From Friday onward, it’s a sad story. We hover around 0.2m (0.7 ft) to 0.4m (1 ft) for days on end, with weak energy and mostly cross-onshore or onshore breezes. The morning of Wednesday, September 16, offers a 0.2m (0.7 ft) swell with an offshore wind from the NW at 20 km/h (12 mph) – clean, but no wave to ride. The long period swell (13 seconds) that arrives on the morning of Thursday, September 17 is a cruel tease: 0.1m (0.3 ft) from the SE, produces a combined energy of just 11. It's a sign of a distant groundswell but without any size.

The run from around September 11 right through to September 22 is basically a write-off with no decent surf. We see some tiny energy bumps on Saturday, September 19 with a 0.9m (3 ft) SSE swell and moderate cross-wind (energy 54-66), but it’s weak period and lumpy chop, not worth a special trip.

Essentially, for Avalon 15th Street, there is nothing I’d call a standout over the entire 16-day period. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not totally abnormal. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d keep the board in the car just in case, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty, signing off.

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