Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you—this stretch of the forecast is a tough one. For Avalon 15th Street, we're looking at a long, dry spell where the waves just aren't playing the game. The first real chance to get wet doesn't show up until early September, and even then, it's a bit of a gamble.

Right now, from Thursday the 20th of August right through to the end of the month, it's a total write-off. We're talking tiny, weak swells barely scraping 1.0 ft to 3 ft, and the wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, messing up any chance of a clean wave. The swell energy is low, with values mostly under 100 (weak energy), and the period is short, under 8 seconds, meaning the waves are weak and crumbly. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 77°F (2°F above average), which is a nice novelty, but it won't help the surf. There's a stretch of over a week with zero recommendations—just a lot of flat, choppy, or messy conditions. Even when the wind goes offshore on Monday the 24th, the swell is a pathetic 0.7 ft, so it's not worth paddling out.

The first spark of hope arrives on Thursday the 3rd of September in the afternoon, with a 5 ft swell from the east and a period of 6 seconds. The cross-onshore wind from the east at 12 mph isn't ideal, but the swell energy jumps to 150 (moderate), which is a sign something is brewing. But it's still a messy, choppy setup.

The real standout, and the only thing worth circling on your calendar, is Friday the 4th of September. The morning brings a solid 7 ft swell from the east, with an 8-second period and a combined energy of 533 (strong to very strong). The wind is light from the east-northeast at 6 mph, making for a light cross-onshore breeze that should keep the surface reasonably clean. This is a big, powerful swell, but at 7 ft, it's getting into the "too big for beginners" territory—this one's for experienced surfers only. The afternoon keeps the energy up at 554 with a 6 ft swell, but the wind picks up to a gentle cross-onshore, so the morning is the pick. The swell direction from the east is a decent match for the optimum SE direction, and the long period (8 seconds) means it's a more groundswell-like pulse, which should bring some decent shape to the beach break. But keep in mind, with the size and energy, this could also be a fun session for kite surfers if the waves get too walled for paddle surfing.

So, there it is. A whole lot of nothing, then one promising morning. Forecasts this far out can always change, but for now, mark the 4th of September and hope the wind holds. Until then, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more