Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the immediate surf picture and see what we’ve got.

Honestly, I’m looking at a pretty flat run ahead. We’ve got one spot on the radar, Avalon 15th Street, but it’s a tough sell. For the entire 16-day window, the wave energy is just not there. The first decent recommendation doesn’t even pop up until Wednesday morning, July 29th, and even then it’s marginal. We’re looking at a gap of several days with nothing worth paddling out for right from the start.

Let’s break it down.

Starting with Wednesday, July 29th, there’s a little pulse of energy. The combined swell energy hits a moderate 119 (just a touch over the 100 mark), but the swell height is only 3 ft from the SSE. The period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s not going to have any real push or shape. The saving grace is the wind: a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the N at 12 mph. That offshore flow will clean things up, but for a beach break, that short-period swell will feel pretty weak and sectiony. The water temp is 76°F, and with a 2°F anomaly, that’s about average for the time of year, so nothing wild there.

The afternoon of the 29th is actually the pick of the whole window. The wind swings to a light offshore from the NNW at 6 mph, making it glassy and clean. Swell is still small at 3 ft from the SSE, with a moderate combined energy of 111, but that clean surface is a major positive for a spot that usually deals with chop.

Into Thursday, July 30th, we get a clean offshore wind from the NW (9 mph) both morning and afternoon. The swell direction shifts to the ENE at 3 ft, with energy dropping a bit to 93 in the morning before picking back up to a moderate 111 in the afternoon. Again, period is a short 8 seconds, so don’t expect any barrels, but for a beginner-friendly break that’s “fairly consistent,” it’s about as good as it’s going to get in this flat spell. Expect some crowds, as this spot can get busy.

After the 30th, it goes back to small, weak, and mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The early morning of August 2nd is worth a mention – glassy conditions with an easterly breeze, but swell is down to 2 ft and energy is low at 52. It’s a long stretch of nothing after that. The combined energies for the rest of the period drop into the teens and twenties, with swell heights barely cracking 2 ft and periods from 4 to 8 seconds. Some of those days, particularly around August 5th and 6th, the wind is going to make it choppy and unappealing for a surfboard.

If you’re a kiter, those days with a moderate onshore wind and small, weak swell might look more interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a blank run. It’s not unusual for this area to see these long flat spells, so don’t lose hope – forecasts can change.

Best advice? If you absolutely need to get wet, the afternoon of Wednesday, July 29th is your best chance for a clean, small wave session. Otherwise, wait it out.

Rusty.

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