Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next two weeks are looking pretty flat and quiet for Avalon 15th Street. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and messy conditions ahead. The first surf worth mentioning doesn’t show up until Tuesday the 4th, and even then it’s a struggle.

The overall pattern is dominated by tiny, short-period swell from the south and southeast, with combined wave energy barely cracking triple digits – most readings are below 100 (weak energy), so there’s just not much power in the water. The water temp is sitting at 76°F with a positive anomaly of 2°F, so it’s a touch warmer than average for this time of year, but that’s about the only highlight.

Tuesday the 4th starts off with a small 2ft SSE swell, period of 7 seconds, and a cross-shore ENE breeze at 12 mph. The combined energy is only 43 (weak), and it’s described as poor surf. The afternoon is even worse with cross-on wind and choppy conditions. Nothing to get excited about.

Wednesday the 5th stays poor. Morning has a light SSE breeze but the swell is tiny and short-period. The afternoon brings a risk of thunderstorms and a messy cross-on wind. Still no good.

Thursday the 6th: morning has a 3ft SSE swell with a cross breeze, but it’s weak (50 energy). Afternoon gets choppier with a fresh SSW wind. Not worth paddling out.

Things clean up a bit on Friday the 7th morning – we get a 3ft S swell with a light cross-offshore WSW breeze at 9 mph, and the wave comment says “clean.” The combined energy is still only 50 (weak), but it’s the best we’ve seen so far. The size is small, beginner-friendly, but the crowds are sometimes an issue here. For a beginner or someone with a longboard, this could be a little window to get wet.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th both offer clean morning conditions with cross-offshore winds, but the swell drops to 2ft–2ft, and energy is very weak (29–50). The waves are small and clean but barely breaking.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a slow fade. Monday the 10th through to Tuesday the 18th all show tiny swells (0.7ft–2ft), mostly from the south, with periods between 5–9 seconds. The combined energy never gets above 57 (weak). There’s a brief moment on Tuesday the 11th morning with glassy conditions – 2ft S swell, 0 wind, but the energy is only 23, so it’s a flat calm. Good for a paddle, not a wave.

Wednesday the 12th afternoon has a clean offshore WNW breeze, but the swell is only 2ft, again too small to really ride.

From Thursday the 13th onwards, it gets even smaller – 1ft, 0.7ft, 0.3ft waves. The combined energy drops to single digits or teens. By Saturday the 15th, we see a slight bump to 3ft with a 5-second period, but it’s cross-on and choppy, and the energy is only 53 (weak). Not rideable surf.

The standout across the whole 16 days is easily the Friday 7th morning session. It’s the cleanest, with a light offshore breeze, small but rideable 3ft S swell, and the best wind conditions of the period. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only real window for a few knee-high, clean waves. The rest is a long, quiet gap – essentially a week and a half of barely any surf.

If you’re a beginner, that Friday morning might be worth a look. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a flat spell.

Rusty.

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