Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it's Rusty here. Let's be straight up about what we’re looking at over the next couple of weeks. To be honest, it’s a lean stretch for Avalon 15th Street. There isn’t really a standout session in the whole 16-day run, so we’re going to have to get creative with the small stuff.

The water is sitting at a very unusual 77°F right now, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – almost 5°F above average. That’s the kind of thing you’d feel straight away, but sadly, the wave quality isn't keeping pace with that warm water.

We kick things off on Monday the 6th of July, but honestly, you can forget about it. We’re looking at a tiny 0.7 ft swell from the ESE with a short period of 9 seconds, and the energy is barely a whisper at 18. On top of that, we’ve got a risk of thunderstorms and an onshore breeze. It’s not going to be worth paddling out for.

Tuesday the 7th through to Thursday the 10th of July are all in the same boat. The swell stays under 3 ft, mostly from the ENE or E, with messy cross-shore winds and periods as short as 4 to 6 seconds. The combined energy barely cracks 67 during that whole spell. The only glimmer of a clean window is on Friday the 10th of July morning when we get a light cross-offshore breeze from the WSW, but with only 1 ft of swell, you’re basically bobbing around for a knee-high ripple. That afternoon, the wind actually goes offshore from the WNW, which is nice, but it’s still only 2 ft of weak swell.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are more of the same: tiny swells, poor conditions, and not enough energy to push a decent wave. You’d struggle to find anything rideable.

Now, here’s where it gets a little spicy, but not in a good way for beginners. On Monday the 13th of July, we see a jump in size. The swell picks up to 5 ft from the ESE with a period of 7 seconds, and the energy hits 235 – that’s moderate energy. But the wind is a moderate cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph. That combo, for a beach break like this, is going to be a messy, choppy mess. At that size (over 5 ft), it’s getting a bit much for beginners, and the cross-shore won’t do us any favours. Honestly, with that wind and poor quality, this setup might actually look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Tuesday the 14th through to Wednesday the 15th of July drops back down under 3 ft again. The best we see is a clean window on the morning of Wednesday the 15th with a cross-offshore breeze from the WSW, but again, it’s only 2 ft of short-period SSW swell. Not worth getting excited about.

The second week is pretty sparse. From the 16th of July to the 21st of July, it’s all ankle-biters. The swell never gets above 2 ft, and the energy is weak (mostly under 40). There’s a glassy morning on Sunday the 19th of July with a 2 ft SSE swell and slight air from the SSW – that’ll be clean as a whistle for the tiny waves, but it's not going to be a surf of any consequence. The wind goes glassy, so if you’re desperate, you could get a board out, but don’t expect any power.

All in all, the whole period is a flat, weak run. There are no true standouts. The only positive is that the water is warm, and if the wind ever lines up with a pulse of energy, the forecast can change. But for now, I’d say save your energy and wait for a better pulse.

Rusty.

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