Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you – the next two weeks at Avalon 15th Street are a long, flat, frustrating wait for anything worth paddling out for. This break is a beginner-friendly beach setup, fairly exposed to swell and best with a SE direction, but the charts are stubborn. We’ve got a big gap of nothing but poor surf and onshore or cross-shore winds until we finally see a pulse of energy late in the forecast window. The water is running at 78° today, which is 7° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a seriously unusual warm spell, so you’ll be sweating in your wetsuit if you even bother.

Let’s run through it. From Friday 11 September through to Monday 21 September, it’s grim. Swells are tiny – anywhere from 1.0 ft to 3 ft – with weak combined energy (28 to 61) and short periods under 10 seconds. Winds are mostly cross, cross-on, or onshore, and the wave comments are all “poor surf conditions.” Not a single recommendation in that stretch. That’s a tough 11-day blank run.

Then we creep into Tuesday 22 September – still nothing you’d want. Swell bumps to 5 ft to 6 ft from the E, period a short 8 seconds, energy climbs to 308 in the morning and 403 in the afternoon, but it’s cross-shore winds and still rated as poor. Wednesday 23 September sees energy jump to 517 with 6 ft from the E, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph – lumpy, ugly, no good for a paddle.

Now here’s the only standout in the whole outlook, and it’s nearly two weeks away. On Thursday 24 September, we get a proper moment. The morning is glassy – slight air, offshore from the WNW at 3 mph – with a 7 ft swell from the ENE at 8 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 503, and the comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That is the best on offer, but look: 7 ft is getting into expert territory for a beach break, and the period is only 8 seconds, so it won’t have that long-period grunt. Still, with glassy conditions, it’ll be clean and punchy. Expect crowds are possible here. Friday 25 September keeps the size big – 8 ft from the E with a period up to 11 seconds and energy over 1400 – but the wind goes cross-onshore, so it’s less clean. Saturday 26 September drops back to 7 ft with cross-shore wind.

That’s it. The first real surf worth talking about is on Thursday 24 September, and only the morning window. Everything before that is a write-off. Keep your eyes on that Thursday, but don’t hold your breath on the rest.

Rusty.

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