Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, it’s Rusty here. Let me level with you. I’ve scanned the charts for the next couple of weeks, and I’ve got some bad news and some slightly less bad news. The bottom line is, if you're looking to get wet around here, you're going to need to be patient and pick your windows wisely.

We’re looking at a stretch that starts off almost completely flat. The first week and a half is a real grind. We’re talking ankle-biters and knee-high slop, with the combined energy sitting way down in the weak zone, anywhere from 5 to 34 on the energy scale. It’s a lot of short-period, windswell junk that just doesn't have the beans to wrap into the spot properly. The water is warm, though, a touch warmer than normal at 78°, so at least you won't be freezing while you're sitting out there waiting for a ripple.

The first real pulse of anything with any sort of size shows up on Monday the 17th. We finally see the swell meter jump up to 4ft, and the energy kicks up to a moderate 119. But here's the kicker—it’s coming with a fresh, cross-shore breeze and a lumpy cross-chop, so the conditions are going to be pretty ugly. That day is more of a challenge than a treat, and a wave that size with that wind is going to be a mess. Not what we want.

Then it goes quiet again for a few more days. Still nothing on the horizon.

Now, the one standout, the only day that really offers a glimmer of hope, is Thursday, the 20th. The morning shows a solid 3ft of SSE swell with a 11-second period, and the energy jumps up to a moderate 224. The wind is a light, cross-offshore breeze from the WSW, which should keep the face reasonably clean. We're still looking at a fair amount of water moving, but for this spot, which is fairly exposed, this is the best we're going to get. It’s surfable, but to be honest, the wave comment says it's “very ordinary.” It's not going to be a world-class day, but it’ll be your best shot at a proper wave in this entire 16-day window. The swell direction is from SE, which is a touch off the optimum, but it’s all we got.

After that, the swell backs off pretty fast. There are a few knee-high days later in the month, but the energy is weak and the winds are mostly cross-shore or onshore, keeping things chopped up.

Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of this forecast, thanks to consistent winds and lack of swell. For us surfers, it’s a waiting game. A couple of the days are “fairly consistent” but that just means you'll catch a few more whitewater waves on your foamie. It tends not to stay poor for long, so keep your board waxed and check back in with me.

Rusty, out.

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