Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for our local stretch.

To be straight with you, the next 16 days are a real struggle. We’ve got a long, barren stretch ahead with no decent surf on offer. The first few days are a total write-off, and it doesn’t really get going until the second week, and even then, it’s nothing to write home about. The break we’re watching is Avalon 15th Street, a fairly exposed beginner spot that’s fairly consistent, but the conditions are just not playing ball for a long time.

The water temperature is sitting at 77°F, which is a whopping 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s really notable, the ocean is feeling more like a bath than the surf zone.

Through the end of August and into the first week of September, we’re looking at tiny, weak swell. The combined wave energy is barely a whisper, with values like 37 (weak energy) on Saturday the 29th and 25 (weak energy) that afternoon. The swell heights are a measly 1ft from the SE, with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is mostly cross or onshore, putting a chop on it. It’s just poor surf. This continues day after day – Sunday the 30th, Monday the 31st, Tuesday the 1st of September – all the same story: small, weak, and messy. The combined energy doesn’t even crack 100 until the 2nd of September, and even then it’s only 96 (weak energy). Honestly, it’s a kite surfer’s setup more than a paddle surfer’s, with those onshore winds and small, weak waves.

There’s a gap of nearly a week of this poor quality. We don’t see any real change until the 8th of September. On Tuesday the 8th, the afternoon shows a bit of life with a combined energy of 129 (moderate wave energy), but the swell is still only 2ft from the ENE with a short period. The winds are light cross-onshore, so it’s still not clean.

The only point that might get a bit of a pulse is the 9th of September. On Wednesday morning, we see a combined energy of 330 (moderate wave energy) with a 3ft swell from the SSE and a period of 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, and it’s decent quality. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it could be okay, but it’s still far from a standout. The afternoon turns choppy again.

The 12th of September, a Saturday, is the closest we get to a highlight. The morning is glassy, with a 3ft swell from the ENE, but the period is only 5 seconds – that’s super short period windswell, so it’ll be weak and fat. The combined energy is only 66 (weak energy). The afternoon picks up a bit to 5ft (combined energy 146, moderate), but the wind goes cross-onshore and chop comes in. For a beginner spot, that 5ft is on the upper end of what’s comfortable, but the quality just isn't there.

So, overall, if you’re desperate, the morning of the 12th of September might be worth a look for a glassy paddle, but don’t expect much. The rest of the window is a real bummer. The ocean is warm, but the surf is cold. We’re just waiting for the next system to change things up.

Stay patient,
Rusty

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