Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a pretty lean stretch ahead for Avalon 15th Street. The water is sitting at 77°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a nice little bonus if you’re paddling out.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, there’s just nothing to get excited about. The whole 16-day window is a long, flat spell with barely any energy. The waves are tiny, the periods are short, and the wind is mostly messy. The biggest issue is that the swell is just too weak and too short-period to do anything fun. The combined wave energy barely cracks 100 (mostly in the 20-90 range early on, with a couple of mid-range blips later), so it’s weak, weak, weak.

From Saturday afternoon (18th July) through to Monday morning (27th July), it’s all poor surf – tiny, choppy, onshore junk. The odd morning might have a clean offshore breeze, like Sunday morning (19th July) with a gentle NNW, but the swell is only 2ft to 2ft with a 7-second period. That’s not even worth waxing up for.

There’s a slight bump in energy around Wednesday 22nd July morning, with a 4ft S swell and a combined energy of 186 – still only moderate strength. The wind is cross-off from the W, so it’s clean, but the wave height is barely overhead and the period is short (8 seconds). It’s still “poor surf conditions” in the notes. That’s the story for the whole week.

The last week of July and into August doesn’t get any better. There’s a little more swell size on 29th July (Wednesday) – 5ft to 5ft from the ENE with a period of 7 seconds, and combined energy hitting 263, which is moderate. But the wind is cross-shore, and the period is too short to hold shape. It’s still a no-go for proper surfing.

The only glimmer comes on Thursday 30th July afternoon: a 4ft ENE swell, 7 seconds, with a clean cross-off wind from the W. The combined energy is 160. The notes say “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is the best we get. That’s your pick, but it’s not a standout by any stretch – just the least bad option.

If you’re a beginner, nothing here is too big – the biggest is 5ft, so it’s not dangerous, but it’s also not good. For experienced surfers, it’s a total write-off. The swell direction is mostly from the S or SE, which isn’t even the optimum for this spot (SE is the optimum, but the quality is still terrible). Crowds are “sometimes” an issue, but honestly, I doubt anyone will be out.

Bottom line: there’s no surf to chase. The break is fairly consistent in terms of waves, but the quality is just not there. It’s a long, flat run. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d stash the board and do something else.

Rusty.

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