Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming down the pipe for Avalon 15th Street. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. The water is sitting at a balmy 78°, which is a whopping 6° warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s pretty wild and you won’t need a thick wetsuit, that’s for sure.

Looking at the whole 16-day window, the pattern is clear: we’re staring down the barrel of a long, dry spell. There’s no real surf to get excited about. The first solid recommendation doesn’t even pop up because the scores are all zeros from the start right through to the end. We’re talking about day after day of tiny, weak waves and poor conditions. For the first week, from Sunday the 6th right through to Saturday the 12th, it’s a mess of tiny swell under 2ft with short periods, mixed with onshore and cross-shore winds that just chop everything up. The energy is basically non-existent – we’re seeing combined swell energy figures as low as 8 and only creeping up to 158 by Thursday afternoon, which is still only moderate energy at best, but the wind ruins it.

There is a little blip around Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th where the wind turns offshore – nice and clean from the NNW and NW, blowing at 12-19 mph. But the swell is still pathetic, coming from the SSE with a period of just 4-5 seconds and heights barely reaching 4ft. The combined energy tops out at 67, which is still weak. That’s not enough to push a decent wave, and with that short period it’ll just be lumpy and weak. It’s more of a wind-swell chop than anything you’d paddle for.

Honestly, for the entire forecast, there isn’t a single standout session. Even when the wind lays down – like on Sunday the 20th with glassy conditions in the morning – the swell is only 1ft from the ESE with a period of 9 seconds. That’s a tiny groundswell, but it’s just too small to ride. For a beginner-friendly break like this, anything over 5ft gets tricky, but we never even get close to that. The whole period is basically flat. If you’re a kitesurfer, the stronger afternoon winds on the 9th and 10th might look interesting, but for a surfer? There’s nothing doing.

So, what’s the verdict? This is a classic blank run for the area. It happens. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, you’re better off waxing your board and waiting for the next system. There’s just no surf to be had.

Rusty.

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