Avalon 15th Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, because this is a tough one. We're looking at a long stretch of small, flat conditions for the next 16 days. Save your energy, because the good windows are few and far between.

We start off with a real gap. The earliest this break might offer a paddle is looking like Thursday, September 5th, but even then it's a maybe. For the first few days, the swell is tiny and the wind is all over the place. Thursday morning (September 3rd) has a risk of thunderstorms and a weak, cross-off breeze from the west. The swell is a mere 1 ft from the SE, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is pathetic (40). The water temperature is a very unusual 78°, which is 6° warmer than normal for this time of year. It’s like surfing in a bath, but there’s barely a wave to enjoy.

Friday, September 4th, through the weekend doesn't get any better. We’re looking at swells so small, 1.0 ft to 1 ft, that you’d be working harder to pop up than to actually ride anything. The winds are clean on and off, but the wave energy is bottom of the barrel. This is a real quiet spell, and there’s nothing to get excited about.

The first glimmer of something with a bit more energy comes on Sunday, September 6th, but it's a real mixed bag. The swell bumps up to 4 ft from the ENE, but it's a short-period, wind-affected mess. The wind is a cross-shore from the NE at 16 mph, and the energy is still only moderate at 58. It’s going to be lumpy and choppy. Honestly, this setup at a beach break with that wind looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

The best of the bunch, and I mean the *only* standout, is early in the second week. On Monday, September 7th, the morning cleans up. We’ve got a 2 ft swell from the E, but the period jumps to 11 seconds, which is the only decent period in the whole forecast. Combined with a light offshore breeze from the NNW at 6 mph, it’ll be glassy. The energy is moderate (85). It’s tiny, but for a beginner-friendly break like Avalon 15th Street, those clean, glassy conditions might make for a fun, easy session. It’s a real maybe, but it's the only window that looks even close to worthwhile.

After that, it’s back to the same story. The wind picks up, the swell drops back to 1.0 ft, and the energy fades away. By the end of the second week, on September 17th and 18th, we have some offshore winds and a long period (13 seconds) but the swell height is only 0.3 ft to 0.7 ft. It’s a tease, showing the potential for clean lines but not delivering any power.

So, to wrap it up: the entire 16-day window is a struggle. The pick is the morning of Monday, September 7th, for the most fun you're likely to have, but even then, keep your expectations low. The rest of the time, it's flat and poor. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a real dry spell.

Rusty.

Read more