Holden Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it. Look, I'm not gonna sugarcoat this one for you. This whole 16-day window for Holden Beach is a tough slog. We've got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead. There's a gap right from the start, with no real surf on offer until the morning of Sunday, July 26th, and even then it's a real struggle. We're looking at days of onshore winds, building chop, and generally messy surf. The combined swell energy hangs around weak to moderate, peaking at a pretty average 264 (moderate wave energy) on the 28th, but the wind just ruins it every time. The wait to get anything resembling a wave is gonna test your patience.

Let's break it down. From the get-go on Monday the 20th, it's a write-off. South-westerly winds blow cross-on or directly onshore, mixing up a weak 3-foot swell from the south-southwest with short periods around 5 to 6 seconds. The water temp is sitting at a warm 85°, about a touch warmer than normal for here, but that's the only nice thing I can say. By Wednesday the 22nd we see the swell building to 6 feet, but it's accompanied by a fresh cross-onshore breeze, making it a choppy, lumpy mess. That pattern holds through Thursday the 23rd, though we get a tiny reprieve Thursday afternoon with a clean cross-offshore wind from the northeast, but the swell drops right back down to 4 feet. That's about as good as it gets for the first week, and it's still not great.

The morning of Sunday the 26th offers a tiny glimmer. We get a clean, off-shore wind from the north with a light breeze and clear skies. But the swell is tiny at only 2 feet from the southeast with an 8-second period. The wave energy is weak at 64. It's surfable but very ordinary. You'd need a log and a lot of patience. That's the only time in the first nine days the "surfable but very ordinary" tag appears. After that, it's right back to the onshore slop.

The real issue here is the second week. There's no standout day. Tuesday the 28th of July sees the biggest swell of the period at 6 feet from the south-southwest, with a combined energy of 264. But that's tied to a fresh cross-onshore wind and lumpy conditions. Anything over 5 feet with that wind is just a washing machine. Too big for beginners, and no fun for anyone else. The periods stay short, mostly around 5 to 6 seconds, so the waves lack any real drive or shape. We get a glassy moment on the morning of Thursday the 30th of July with a 3-foot south swell, but it’s fleeting.

Forget about crowds. This spot is inconsistent and rarely breaks with any quality. The few windows we have, like Sunday morning the 25th with light offshore winds but only 2 feet of swell, are just not worth paddling out for. When the swell does pick up, like on August 3rd and 4th, it's back to onshore winds. Honestly, for the latter part of July and into August, the setup with onshore wind and a decent sized, short-period swell at an exposed beach is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a blank run, folks. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, this is a normal, quiet stretch for the area. There's nothing to get excited about. The best you can hope for is a clean, tiny wave on Sunday the 26th morning if you're desperate to get wet.

Rusty.

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