Royal Palms State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at what’s on the cards for Royal Palms State Beach. I’ll be straight with you – this stretch of reef and point is a tough one to call for the next 16 days. It’s a sheltered little spot, so it needs the right angle to fire, and the window is pretty narrow. We’re looking at a long run of small, messy surf, so don’t get your hopes up for anything epic.

The water is running at 72° which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’ll feel like a bath out there. But the swell? Well, that’s the problem.

We kick off on Thursday, July 23rd with a small 2ft SSW swell, but it’s a short period windswell at 14 seconds. The wind is a cross-onshore breeze, so the surface is already chopped up. The energy is light, just 253 (weak), and the wave comment says it all: poor surf. This sets the tone for the whole outlook.

The rest of July and into early August is a real grind. Day after day, we’re looking at tiny 1.0ft to 3ft swells, mostly from the SSW or SSE. The combined energy is moderate at best (peak of 658 on July 31st afternoon), but it’s always accompanied by a cross or cross-onshore wind. The wind state is a mess – "light cross-onshore with small wind ripples" is the best we get, and it’s not even good. The swell periods are drifting between 15 and 18 seconds, which is groundswell territory, but it’s just too small and weak to make the most of it. The few "on" wind windows on July 25th morning, July 27th afternoon, and July 29th afternoon are marked as "marginal" or "unknown", which for a spot like this usually means it’s a gutless waist-high dribble.

The absolute best we can find is a brief window on Saturday morning, August 1st. The swell picks up to 4ft from the S, with a period of 13 seconds. The combined energy hits 589 (moderate). The wind is a light cross-onshore, which is better than the choppy stuff we’ve been seeing. It’s still not clean, but it’s the only time the swell gets close to chest-high. That’s your standout, but it’s a marginal call at best. The break is inconsistent at the best of times, and after that, the surf fades away fast.

After August 1st, the bottom drops out. From August 2nd onwards, the swell drops to 1ft to 3ft, and the energy levels fall off a cliff (down to 93 on August 3rd afternoon). The wind stays stubbornly cross or cross-onshore, and the periods get shorter. It’s basically a flat spell for the second week. The drop from August 1st to August 2nd is a real bummer.

So, the honest truth? There’s no standout day here. The only real chance is Saturday morning, August 1st, and even that is a "marginal" hope. If you’re desperate for a paddle, you might get a few soft, weak waves, but don’t expect any quality. The long period swells we do get are prone to breaking too straight on this point-reef setup, so it won’t be a classic. For the rest of the 16 days, it’s a write-off. The confidence is low for the far-out stuff, but the trend is clear: it’s flat, small, and blown out.

Keep your eyes on the horizon, but don’t hold your breath. Rusty out.

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