Royal Palms State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a tough one. The entire 16-day stretch from now through to mid-August is a total write-off for surf at Royal Palms State Beach. The data is clear: every single day comes back as “poor surf conditions.” There’s no hiding it, and I’m not going to sugar-coat it for you.

We start right now, on Friday the 31st of July, and the first thing to hit you is the water temperature. We’re sitting at a very unusual 72°, which is a massive 6° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a real anomaly and makes the water feel like bathwater.

The swell is tiny and weak. On Friday morning, we’ve got a mere 3ft of swell from the SSW, but the combined energy is a low 279 (moderate energy). The wind is light and onshore from the SSW at 3 mph, but the wave comment says it all – poor surf. By the afternoon, the wind swings to the W and cranks up to 12 mph cross-onshore, making it choppy. That’s the pattern for the whole forecast.

From Saturday the 1st of August, the swell drops to 2ft or less. The wind is mostly a light cross-onshore breeze from the S or SW, which keeps the surface rippled but not clean. The combined energy dips into the 80s and 100s (weak to moderate). The swell period is often around 13 to 14 seconds, which is a decent groundswell, but with no height, it’s just not enough to break properly.

Sunday the 2nd bottoms out with a 1.0ft swell from the SW. The period is a long 18 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell, but at that height, there’s no energy to push a wave. The energy reading is just 108 (moderate). For a sheltered reef and point break like this, that’s a flat day.

The entire first week looks the same: tiny swell, light cross-onshore winds, and poor conditions. There’s a very slight uptick in combined energy around the 7th and 8th of August, with readings hitting 233 and 231 (moderate), but the swell height is still stuck at 1ft to 2ft. The wind is still cross-onshore, so the surface is bumpy.

The second week, from the 9th of August onward, is more of the same. The swell height never gets above 3ft, and the wind is consistently onshore or cross-onshore, with the afternoon sea breeze picking up to 12-15 mph from the W or WSW. The combined energy does climb a bit, reaching 367 on the morning of Saturday the 15th of August (moderate), but with a 3ft swell from the SSW and a 16-second period, the wind is still a gentle onshore breeze. It’s not enough to get excited about.

Honestly, this is a blank run. For an inconsistent spot that’s sheltered from the swell, it’s not unusual to see long gaps like this. The break is a reef and point that needs a good SW groundswell to work, and it’s just not getting it. If you’re desperate for a paddle, you might find a knee-high lump on the 15th, but it’ll be bumpy and weak. The setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer on the afternoons when the wind gets up.

That’s the grim reality. Keep an eye on the long-range, but don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the boards at home.

Rusty.

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