Royal Palms State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s slice through the data and see what’s actually worth paddling out for at Royal Palms State Beach over the next couple weeks.

Right off the bat, I’ve got to be straight with you: this is a tough run. The forecast is stacked with marginal to poor conditions, and we’re looking at a long stretch of days where it’s just not happening. We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell trying to push in, coming from the SSW with periods hitting 16-18 seconds, but the wind is the real story here, and it’s mostly a mess.

The first real break in the clouds, the one true standout in this whole outlook, is Wednesday morning, July 8th. That’s your window. For a few hours, we get glassy conditions, with a slight air and the wind swinging offshore from the SW at just 3 mph. The swell will be running 3 ft from the SSW with a long 16-second period. That's clean, lined-up, and the water temp is sitting at 68°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. It’s a reef and point set-up here, and with that long-period groundswell, it’s going to wrap in nicely and offer some proper shape. The wave energy is moderate (512), so there’s some grunt in the water. Just be aware that it is inconsistent here, so don’t expect a wave every minute; but when they come, they’ll be worth it. Crowds are possible, but on a Wednesday morning you might dodge the worst of it.

Outside of that Wednesday morning, it’s a grim picture. The rest of the first week and the entire second week is plagued by cross-onshore and onshore winds, mostly from the W and SW, blowing 6-16 mph, chopping everything up. The swell drops off fast after Wednesday, too, fading from 3 ft down to a sad 1 ft - 2 ft by the middle of the month. The wave energy plummets from moderate down to weak (values drop into the 100-200 range). There’s a slight flicker of energy later on July 15th and 18th, but the wind is still cross or cross-on, and the wave quality is reported as poor. Honestly, for most of that second week, you’re looking at a blank run.

There’s nothing here for beginners after that Wednesday, as the swell is too small or the conditions too messy. For experts? Maybe if you’re desperate, but the wind is blowing it out.

All in all, the board stays in the car unless you can make that Wednesday July 8th morning session. It’s the only time the stars align.

- Rusty

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