Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you: the outlook for Newcombs Hollow over the next sixteen days is a real heartbreaker. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with barely a ripple to get excited about. The first real chance of anything vaguely surfable doesn’t show up until Tuesday the 25th of August, and even then, it’s a struggle.

Let’s run through it. From now until Monday the 24th, it’s flat or close to it. Tiny, weak swell with periods down around 4 to 8 seconds – that’s pure wind chop, not groundswell. The combined energy is mostly in the weak 20s and 30s (27), and the wind is a mess. We’ve got strong cross-shore and cross-onshore winds, often hitting 19 mph, just chopping everything up. Tuesday the 18th afternoon shows a little blip of cleaner conditions with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is a paltry 3ft from the ESE with a short 8-second period. It’s not worth paddling out for.

The first faint glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday the 25th of August. The morning shows a cleaner look with a moderate cross-offshore breeze from the WNW. Swell bumps up to 4ft from the SSE, but the period is still a short 5 seconds, so it’ll be weak and crumbly. The combined energy climbs to a moderate 87, but it’s still not enough to get the heart racing. The afternoon sees a bit more size at 4ft, but the wind swings onshore, ruining it.

Then we hit the last few days of August and into September. On Thursday the 27th, we get a pulse of energy with a 12-second period, but the swell is tiny at 2ft and the wind is directly onshore from the E at 16 mph. The combined energy hits 143, which is moderate, but it’s just a messy, blown-out shorebreak. The 28th of August sees a stronger pulse of long-period groundswell (14 seconds) pushing the combined energy up to a strong 308 on Friday morning, but again, we’re looking at 3ft of swell with a strong onshore wind. That’s a recipe for a closeout, not a wave you can ride. The afternoon on the 28th has the energy jumping to 434, but it’s a lumpy 3ft with a fresh cross-onshore wind. It’s a tough call.

The best of a bad bunch, and I’m using the term loosely, looks like Sunday the 30th of August. The morning has a light cross-offshore breeze from the SW, making it clean. The swell is a tiny 2ft from the SE, but the period is a more hopeful 8 seconds. The combined energy is a weak 53. It’s surfable, but only just. You’ll be scratching for knee-high slop. The water temperature is 70°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat it. The biggest issue here is the persistent onshore and cross-shore winds. Even when the swell tries to show up, the wind ruins it. The 5ft+ swell we need for a decent session never materializes. For a spot that’s consistent and exposed to the NE, this is a barren run. It’s a tough stretch, but it won’t stay this way forever. Forecasts can change. Keep the board waxed, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more