Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's on the table for our local stretch.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window, it’s a pretty grim run for most of it. We're staring down a lot of poor conditions, with flat spells and messy winds. The only real glimmer of hope, the one standout that’s worth marking on the calendar, is right at the very end on the 27th of September – a Sunday morning that’s showing some real promise.

For the most part, from now through to late September, it’s a write-off. The swell is tiny, often under 2ft, and the wind is almost always wrong. We get a bit of a pulse around the 15th and 16th of September with some 4ft to 3ft swell, but it’s coming from the NE and E with onshore or cross-onshore winds, making for choppy, unrideable messes. The combined energy is moderate, but the quality is just poor.

Then, on the 21st and 22nd of September, we see a bigger jump in size – 6ft to 4ft from the NNE and ENE. That’s a solid amount of water, with moderate energy. But again, the wind is cross-onshore, leaving it choppy. On the 22nd, it gets even messier with strong 28 mph winds. Not what you want.

The 25th of September brings another 4ft pulse from the E, but with a nasty near-gale cross-shore wind of 31 mph. That's a hard pass – the energy is moderate, but the wind will have it completely crossed out.

The Standout: 27th of September – Sunday Morning

But then, finally, something clicks. On the morning of the 27th, we get a 5ft swell rolling in from the E, with a period of 11 seconds. That’s a nice, long groundswell, which means proper energy and shape on the right bank. The combined energy is strong – you’ll feel that. The wind is the key: light cross-off from the SW at 19 mph. That’s going to groom the surface, keeping it clean. It’s a proper surfable window. Be aware, though, that a long-period E swell can sometimes make beach breaks close out fast, but at Newcombs Hollow, with an exposed setup, it should wrap in cleanly with that offshore component. The crowd can be around sometimes, so get on it early. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Before that, on the 26th of September Saturday morning, there’s a looker too: 4ft from the E with 8-second period and a clean cross-off wind from the NNW. The energy is solid. That’s worth a dawny, but the Sunday morning is the full package.

So, to sum it up: don’t bother for the next week and a half. There’s a couple of small windows but nothing worth paddling out for. The real date to focus on is the 27th. Get your board ready for that Sunday session. It might not stay good forever, but that’s the one.

Rusty.

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