Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Look, I’m not gonna lie to you. For the next week and a half, Newcombs Hollow is flat as a pancake. We’ve got tiny scraps of swell, mostly around 0.7ft from the ESE, and with such poor wave energy (single digits and low teens for the combined energy), you’re not even getting a bump. The water temp is sitting pretty average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th offer some glassy moments, particularly Friday afternoon when the wind goes dead calm and the water turns to glass. But with only 2ft from the north and a short 4-second period, it’s just not enough to push a rideable wave. It’s a frustrating start. We’ve got a gap of several days here with nothing worth paddling out for.

Now, things start to look a little more interesting by Monday the 21st of September. Swell kicks up to 3ft from the ENE, and the combined energy is up to 71. Still nothing special on the 21st, but the trend is building. By Tuesday the 22nd, the swell hits 5ft from the east with a 7-second period, and the combined energy climbs to 187. The morning sees a gentle cross-onshore which is okay, but it’s going to be a bit lumpy. Not a standout.

The real standout of the whole outlook is Wednesday the 23rd of September. We’ve got a solid 6ft east swell, a 10-second period pushing serious energy (combined energy 535), and it’s a proper groundswell. This is the best on offer. Now, that east swell direction isn’t the NE optimum the break tends to prefer, but with that much energy and a clean offshore? It’s the window. The only catch is the wind is onshore from the east, making for some lumpy and closed-out conditions. The wave height is over 5ft, so this is getting a bit much for beginners – it’s for the intermediate crew. Also, with the wave energy that strong and onshore wind at a beach break setup, this might actually look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Looking further out, Thursday the 24th is still holding 4ft from the east with a 9-second period, and the energy is still solid at 244. It might be your second-best chance if you can handle a drop in quality. Friday the 25th sees a near-gale from the NNE and a drop in swell to 3ft – that wind is going to trash it.

So, to sum it up: if you’re desperate, you might get a barely rideable bump on the 24th, but the one to keep your eye on is Wednesday the 23rd. It’s the biggest, most powerful swell of the window, even if the wind’s not perfect. Don’t hold your breath for anything before that.

Rusty.

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