Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break down what’s happening at Newcombs Hollow over this 16-day stretch. I’ll be honest with ya – it’s a rough patch. Lots of small, weak, or blown-out days, and only a couple of fleeting windows that might give you a thrill. The clear standouts are the last few days of the month, but they come with serious wind headaches.

Starting off on Monday the 14th, it’s flat and hopeless – 1 ft from the ESE with a 9-second period, combined wave energy of just 29, and a fresh cross-off breeze. That’s a no-go. Tuesday the 15th sees a bump to 4 ft from the NNE but it’s a 6-second windswell with cross-on wind and only 94 energy (weak). Still rubbish.

Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th stay tiny and clean but absolutely undersized – 1 ft to 2 ft from the E, periods around 6-7 seconds, and energy barely scratching 56. Friday the 18th is a messy cross-shore affair with 2 ft of NNE windswell at 5 seconds – not worth the paddle.

The weekend of the 19th-20th is a write-off: Saturday has 0.6 ft from the ESE at 11 seconds (23 energy), but it’s still just 0.6 ft mate, can’t do anything with that. Sunday gets slammed by 25 mph onshore wind and rain, with 1 ft on offer.

Now, Monday the 21st of September is the first real spike but it’s a cruel one. We get a 8 ft NE swell at 7 seconds with combined energy of 572 (moderate). That’s a solid size, too solid for beginners, but the cross-shore wind is a fresh 19 mph and the report says “lumpy cross-chop” – this ain’t pretty. Paddling out would be a battle.

Tuesday the 22nd drops back to 3 ft, Wednesday the 23rd climbs to 6 ft from the E but with onshore winds and rain. Energy hits 253 (moderate). Still messy.

Here’s where the standout potential lies, but it’s a long-range call and uncertain. Thursday the 24th of September, we see a 10 ft E swell with a 10-second period and a massive 1584 combined energy (very strong). That’s big, expert-only territory. But the wind is a near-gale 28 mph cross-onshore – blown out completely. Not surfable for us. Friday the 25th, the swell holds at 10 ft from the E, period stretching to 12 seconds (long period groundswell, best at a reef or point if it were clean), energy up to 3232 (very strong). The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-onshore, and the forecast nudges up to a 2/10 – “marginal”. That’s the best we’ve got, but it’s still cross-onshore and choppy. For the experienced crew with a big board and patience, this could offer some heavy, long-interval lines, but expect a lot of water moving and tricky conditions.

Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th drop to 5 ft-4 ft from the E with heavy rain or clean but strong cross-off winds (25-28 mph). By Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th, it’s back to tiny 1 ft-2 ft with strong offshore winds.

So, bottom line: if you’re desperate for a wave, the only real look is late in the window – Friday the 25th of September. Big swell, long period, but that wind direction is a killer for clean face. It’s a promise, not a guarantee. The rest is a long, frustrating gap of poor conditions. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because a change in wind could turn that Friday pulse into something special. For now, it’s more of a kitesurfer’s forecast than a paddler’s paradise.

Stay tuned, Rusty.

Read more