Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and we’re taking a long look at the 16-day window for Newcombs Hollow. Alright, I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks look frustrating, like waiting for a bus that keeps driving past. There’s a real dry spell on the cards.

We kick off on Saturday the 4th of July with barely a ripple; we’re talking 0.7 ft of weak, short-period ESE windswell, and the combined energy is a measly 8. That’s barely enough to wet your board. The water temperature is 67°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only positive. This flat, quiet pattern looks set to hold through the start of the following week.

The first real sign of life hits on Tuesday the 7th, but it’s a wild one. Heavy rain, strong cross-onshore wind from the ESE, and suddenly we’ve got 8 ft of east swell pumping in with 619 combined energy. That’s a lot of water moving, but the period is a short, choppy 7 seconds – more of a messy windswell than a clean groundswell. That size is getting into expert-only territory with those conditions.

Wednesday the 8th of July shapes up as the one real standout in the whole run. The swell drops just a touch to 7 ft from the NE, the wind swings around to a clean cross-offshore from the NNW, and the combined energy jumps to 730. The morning is the pick, with clean conditions and that solid NE swell. By the afternoon, the wind goes almost glassy from the north, dropping to just 3 mph with the swell at 5 ft. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions,” and it’s the only window in the entire forecast that says that. For the experienced crew, Wednesday morning is the time to go.

After that, it’s a long, drawn-out fade. Thursday the 9th sees the swell collapse back to under 3 ft, and the wind cranks up from the southwest, turning the ocean into a mess. We go through days and days of tiny, weak swell—barely 0.7 ft or 1.0 ft through the weekend. Even by Monday the 13th, when we get a light offshore from the west, the swell is only 3 ft with a combined energy of 57. The word is “surfable but very ordinary.”

The second week looks just as flat. From around the 14th of July through to the end of the period on Sunday the 19th, it’s all 0.3 ft to 2 ft swells with energy readings barely hitting double digits. Strong offshore winds on some days won’t do a thing if there’s no ocean coming in. It’s a classic case of the forecast looking bleak for a week or more.

So if you’re desperate, keep your eye on Wednesday the 8th. That’s your one and only shot for a proper session in this stretch. For everything else, you’d be better off doing a beach clean-up or taking up kite surfing—some of those strong wind days might at least get you moving on a board.

Rusty.

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