Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

How are ya? Rusty here, with the long-range look at what the ocean’s got on offer. Let’s be straight with each other—this is a tough run. There’s no real standout, and for a long stretch, you’d be better off finding something else to do.

Starting with the only spot the file points us to: Newcombs Hollow. It’s consistent, but that doesn’t mean it’s good. We kick off Wednesday, August 26. Morning sees tiny 2 ft surf from the ESE with a weak 8-second period and a combined wave energy of just 64—that’s low energy. Winds are light out of the NNW, making for a cross-off breeze, so it’s clean-looking, but the surf itself? Ordinary. We’re talking barely rideable. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no shock there.

From Wednesday afternoon onward, we slide into a long, grim stretch. The wind turns onshore or cross, the swell stays small—mostly 2 ft to 3 ft—and the “poor surf conditions” label follows us day after day, right through to early September. Thursday the 27th is cross-shore and choppy, Friday the 28th is poor, and the weekend? Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th bring barely any size, with the energy number dropping from 51 down to 25–26. Sunday afternoon even has a 22 mph cross-off breeze, but it’s blowing over 1 ft surf—a waste.

Monday, August 31, the swell dips to 1.0 ft, and a light offshore wind on Monday afternoon keeps it clean but tiny. Then Tuesday, September 1, throws in heavy rain, 19 mph onshore winds, and a weird 13–14 second period on a 0.7 ft wave—essentially nothing. By Wednesday, September 2, the period climbs to 11 seconds off a 1 ft ESE swell, which is a long-period groundswell, but the wave energy is still weak (60). The morning has a light cross-off breeze out of the NW, making for clean surf, but the size just isn’t there.

Now, here’s the only pulse of real energy in the whole 16-day window: Thursday, September 3. It’s about a week and a half away, so hold that hope loosely. The swell bumps to 5 ft from the NE, with a short, weak 6-second period but combined energy of 197 (moderate). That’s the biggest surf of the period. Winds are light from the N in the morning, but it’s cross-shore, so you’ll deal with some ripples. The afternoon is cross-onshore. It’s not perfect, but if you’re an intermediate surfer who can handle a short-period, messy wave, this is as good as it gets here. The break’s exposed and consistent, so it’ll catch it, but this isn’t a day for beginners—5 ft is pushing it for the less experienced. The water temp is still about average, nothing wild.

After that pulse, Friday, September 4, drops back to 4 ft with moderate onshore winds—poor. Saturday, September 5, shows 4 ft from the E with a gentle cross-off breeze out of the NW in the morning, keeping things clean, but the energy is still ordinary (165). Then Sunday, September 6, has a real glimmer: dead glassy conditions in the morning, wind from WSW at 0 mph, with 3 ft surf from the E and an 8-second period. Combined energy is a modest 118, but the glassy surface will make those small waves look beautiful. It’s still small, but clean.

Monday, September 7, offers another clean morning with 2 ft from the E and a cross-off breeze out of the WNW, but again, tiny. From there, Tuesday the 8th, Wednesday the 9th, and Thursday the 10th are all small, messy, or with onshore wind—1 ft to 3 ft of nothing special, with a 6-second period lump on Thursday.

So what’s the takeaway? The standout of this whole run is Thursday, September 3, for the size—5 ft is the biggest—but it’s short-period and cross-shore. If you want the cleanest waves, early Sunday, September 6, with glassy conditions, is your best bet for a fun but small session. Everything else is either tiny, onshore, or both. There’s nearly a week from Saturday, August 29 through Wednesday, September 2, where the surf is practically non-existent—1 ft and under. Don’t bother.
Newcombs Hollow is consistent, so it won’t stay dead forever, but this is a lean period. If you’ve got a kite, the bigger onshore days like Friday, September 4 might be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing—4 ft with 19 mph winds is more their speed.

Stay patient, keep an eye on that September 3 pulse, and don’t force it.

Rusty.

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