Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here.

Honestly, I’m going to level with you. Right now, Newcombs Hollow is looking pretty flat and lifeless for the next week and a half. We’ve got a long, dry spell staring us down until we finally see something worth paddling out for around the end of the month.

Right from Wednesday the 16th, it’s tiny. We’re talking ankle-slashers at 0.7ft to 2ft, with a weak ESE swell. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. The wind is mostly cross-off, so it’s clean, but there’s just no power behind it. The combined energy is barely registering at 17, just flat-out weak.

Thursday and Friday don’t get any better. The swell stays small, under 2ft, and the period is short, around 7 seconds. The energy stays in the doldrums, between 26 and 56. It’s surfable in the sense that you can sit on your board, but you won’t be catching much.

Saturday the 19th sees a bump in size to 4ft from the NNE, but here’s the catch – the wind turns cross-on and it gets choppy. The period is a weak 6 seconds, so it’s messy, lumpy, and not fun. Energy hits 175 (moderate), but with onshore wind, it’s just a bumpy mess.

Sunday the 20th brings in rain and a strong cross-off wind at 25 mph on the afternoon session. The swell is 4ft from the south, but the period is short at 5 seconds, so it’s weak and won’t hold shape. Energy at 92 is still weak.

The whole following week – Monday the 21st through to Wednesday the 30th – is a write-off. Swells hang around 1ft to 6ft, but the wind and conditions are poor. Cross-on winds, lumpy seas, and short periods dominate. For a few days there’s even rain and strong onshore winds. This is not the time.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. After a long dry spell, Thursday the 1st of October finally shows some life. We get a morning session with a 7ft ENE swell, period 6 seconds, and cross-shore wind. The energy jumps to 388 (strong). It’s still a bit onshore and choppy, so the quality isn’t there yet. But the afternoon? That’s the standout.

On Thursday the 1st of October afternoon, the swell pushes to a solid 10ft from the ENE, with a 7 second period. The wind is light and cross-on, so it’s only light ripples on the surface – clean enough. The combined energy is massive at 789, that’s strong to very strong. But, and this is a big but, the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That kind of size at Newcombs Hollow? It’s going to be heavy and powerful, not for the faint-hearted. This is expert level territory, and even then, it might be closing out.

So, the best you’ve got in this whole 16-day window is that Thursday afternoon. It’s the only time the energy and size line up, but with the caveat that it might be too much for the spot. Keep an eye on it, because if the wind shifts a little more offshore, it could be a proper session for the brave. But for now, it’s a long wait.

Rusty out.

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