Newcombs Hollow Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get real about this stretch of water. We're looking at Newcombs Hollow, and I gotta be straight with you – it's a tough run ahead. The next two weeks aren't serving up much for the paddle crew.

Right off the bat, we're dealing with a long fallow period. From the start of the forecast on Monday, 31 August, right through to Saturday, 5 September, it's a write-off. The swell is tiny, the wind is wrong, and the conditions are just ugly. You'll see a few pulses of energy, like a 4 ft swell from the ESE on Thursday morning, 3 September, with moderate combined energy (150), but it's caught in a fresh cross-shore wind that's going to chop it to bits. It's not worth a second look. The water is sitting at 70°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's about the only positive.

The pattern starts to shift a little on Sunday, 6 September, but it's all bad news. A big 10 ft cross-shore NE swell rolls in Sunday morning, pumping out a massive 1237 on the combined energy scale, but it's a messy, lumpy mess. That's big, ugly, and dangerous – only for the nutters, and even then, it's not clean. That afternoon, it drops to 8 ft, still a lot of energy (803), but the wind is cross-onshore. It's more of a kitesurfer's playground than a surfer's dream.

The one bright spot in this whole gloomy picture arrives on Monday, 7 September. The morning shows a 5 ft swell from the ENE, with a period of 10 seconds and a solid 467 on the combined energy scale. But the real beauty is the wind – a gentle offshore breeze from the WSW. That's the magic word: clean. It won't be a massive day, but if you're an intermediate surfer looking for some fun, this is the one window where the stars align. The waves will be well-shaped and clean, with the offshore wind holding the faces up. The afternoon is a step down, but that morning is your best shot.

After that Monday morning, it's a slow fade. The rest of the week into the second week is a mix of tiny swells, poor direction, and bad wind. Swell sizes barely crack 2 ft after Tuesday, 8 September, and the energy is pathetic. You'll see a few clean days with offshore or cross-offshore winds, but with nothing to ride, it's just a pretty-looking flat ocean. For example, Friday morning, 11 September, has a clean offshore wind but only a 3 ft SSE swell with a period of 4 seconds – that's windswell mush.

So, to sum it up: the first six days are a bust. The only standout is the morning of Monday, 7 September, at Newcombs Hollow. It's not a world-class bomb, but it's the only proper, clean, surfable swell in the whole 16-day window. For the rest of it, you're better off checking the forecast again in a few days. It's a tough stretch, but it never stays flat forever.

Rusty.

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