The Jetty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for The Jetty over the next 16 days is a tough one for paddle surfers. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and often messy conditions, so don’t expect any fireworks.

The water temperature is running about 78°, which is a couple of degrees warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a nice touch if you’re having a paddle, but don’t get too excited about the waves.

We kick off on Monday, 10th August with virtually nothing. The swell is a paltry 1 ft from the south, with a short period of 4 seconds – that’s pure wind chop, barely worth a mention. The combined energy is a measly 7 units, so it’s dead flat. Winds are light, but it’s cross-shore, creating a bit of a mess. This pattern of tiny, poor-quality surf sticks around through the rest of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday offer similar 1 ft to 2 ft swells, mostly from the SSE or S, with periods stuck between 5 and 6 seconds. The combined energy rarely breaks 30 units. We get some clean windows with cross-offshore winds, but the swell is just too small. The surf is consistently described as "poor surf conditions" – there’s simply no power or shape to work with.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th doesn’t bring relief. Morning winds on Saturday turn moderate cross-shore, making a mess of the tiny 2 ft swell. By Sunday afternoon, the wind picks up to a fresh 22 mph from the SSW, blowing cross-onshore. The swell bumps up to 4 ft, but that’s a short-period, wind-driven mess. The combined energy hits 71 units, but all that wind and chop makes it look more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle session. The setup is a beach-and-reef affair, so onshore winds just ruin it.

The best of a bad bunch looks to be Monday, 17th August. For the morning, we get a light offshore wind from the NNW, cleaning up a 3 ft south swell. The period is 7 seconds, and the combined energy is 61 units. The surf is described as "surfable but very ordinary". It’s the only window in the first week that’s even worth a look, but it’s a real scrappy, low-energy day. Beginners might find something to bob around on, but it’s hardly a standout.

The second week is a real waiting game. From the 18th, we start seeing some longer-period swells from the SE, with periods hitting 15 seconds on the 18th. That’s proper groundswell energy, with the combined energy building to 139 units on the 18th afternoon and 179 units on the 19th afternoon. But here’s the kicker – the wind is a mess. On the 18th, it’s a fresh cross-shore, and on the 19th, it’s onshore. The swell is 2 ft to 3 ft, but with those long 15 and 12-second intervals, it’s going to be very straight and close out at a beach break. The Jetty is a sandbar setup, so that long period energy won’t help. The reports say "poor surf conditions" throughout. It’s promising to see that energy, but the wind is just not cooperating.

The last few days of the forecast, from the 20th to the 25th, are a repeat of the tiny, weak stuff. Swell drops back to 1 ft to 3 ft, with short periods, and the combined energy rarely hits triple digits. There’s a tiny window on Saturday, 22nd August afternoon with a light offshore wind, but the swell is only 2 ft. It’s clean, but you’ll be fighting for waist-high scraps.

The honest truth is, there’s no standout here. The only spot that gets a decent nod is the Monday morning of the 17th, but even then, it’s a "very ordinary" call. The longer period swells in the second week have the energy, but the wind is against us. The only positive? The forecasts can change, and it’s a fairly consistent setup for The Jetty, so it won’t stay this poor forever. But for now, leave the board at home unless you’re desperate for a lake-like paddle.

Rusty.

Read more