Rat Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Rat Beach.

Honestly, looking at the next 16 days, it’s a pretty grim outlook for paddling into anything decent. The swell is tiny and inconsistent, and the conditions are messy for most of the run. There’s a bit of a gap with no real surf to speak of, but honestly, the whole period is a struggle. We have a few fleeting moments where it might be worth a paddle, but I wouldn’t be rushing to get the wetsuit on.

The water is sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 69°F, with a positive anomaly of 3°F. So, it’s a bit more pleasant than usual, but that’s about the only good news.

The pattern starts pretty flat. On Saturday the 22nd, we’ve got a tiny 1ft SW groundswell with a very long 18-second period, but the combined energy is a weak 65, and it’s cross-shore wind. The same goes for Sunday the 23rd; the swell bumps up to 1ft, energy gets a little better at 141, but it’s still cross-shore and messy. Not worth the drive.

Monday the 24th morning is the first glimpse of something clean. The swell is still only 1ft from the SW, but the wind goes light cross-off, giving us a clean surface. The combined energy is moderate at 126. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. The rest of the week is a rinse and repeat of tiny, weak swell.

Wednesday the 26th morning actually has a bit of offshore wind from the SE, with the same 2ft SW groundswell (period 16s) and combined energy of 175. It’s clean, but the wave quality is still just "surfable but very ordinary". Thursday the 27th morning offers a gentle offshore as well, but the swell drops right back to 1ft and energy falls to 112.

The best of a bad bunch, and the only real standout, is Wednesday the 26th morning. The wind is offshore, the swell is a long-period groundswell from the SW, which is close to the optimum direction for this reef. At 2ft, it’s small, perfect for beginners, but the long 16-second period will give it some shape. The combined energy of 175 is moderate, so there’s enough push for a small craft. It’s an inconsistent break, so you’ll be waiting for sets, but the clean conditions and offshore wind make it the only window worth looking at. Remember, long-period swells like this can break a bit straight on a beach, but being a reef, it should line up better.

The rest of the window is a write-off. After the 27th, the swell period drops to 6-10 seconds, making it mostly weak, wind-swell junk. The combined energy falls into the double digits, indicating very weak wave energy. The morning of September 6th shows a glimmer of 3ft from the west but with a 7-second period, making it short and choppy. It’s just not going to be any good for a paddle.

So, mark your calendar for Wednesday the 26th. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the only real chance at a clean, ridable wave in this 16-day stretch. Get out there early before the wind turns onshore.

Rusty.

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