Rat Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what we’ve got coming up at Rat Beach. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a bit of a lean patch, so don’t get your hopes up too high. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first real chance of anything rideable doesn’t kick in until Tuesday the 7th, and even then it’s pretty small.

Overall Pattern: For the next couple of days, it’s flat or near-flat with poor conditions. Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are write-offs – tiny swell, messy cross-onshore winds, and virtually no energy in the water (combined energy just 8 on Sunday afternoon and only climbing to 31-32 on Monday). The water’s warm though, sitting at 68°F with an anomaly of 4°F , which is much warmer than normal for this time of year.

Things get a little interesting from Tuesday the 7th. We see a small bump in swell, but the quality is just “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” The standout window looks to be Thursday morning the 16th and Thursday afternoon the 16th. That’s the pick of the bunch across the whole forecast – light offshore winds and clean conditions, with a long-period groundswell from the SW at 1 ft and a period of 16 seconds. The combined energy on Thursday morning is 154, which is moderate, and it stays clean all day. That long period (over 15 seconds) means the waves will have proper shape and power, but at a beach-reef setup like Rat Beach it might break a bit too straight. Still, for what’s on offer, it’s the best we’ll see.

Before that, we’ve got a long gap. From Tuesday the 7th through to Wednesday the 15th, nearly every session is poor or marginal. There’s a brief window on Wednesday morning the 8th with clean conditions and a 3 ft W swell (period 7 seconds, combined energy 56) – surfable but nothing to write home about. The wind is light and cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean, but the swell is short period and small. The same goes for Thursday the 9th morning and afternoon – clean but tiny.

Later in the second week, Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th see a bit more energy (combined energy up to 267 on Saturday morning), but the wind is cross-shore or cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. That’s more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle session. The standout remains Thursday the 16th – the only day with true offshore wind (SE at 9 mph) and clean conditions combined with moderate energy.

Crowds: Rat Beach is a reef break that’s "sometimes" crowded. On a clean, small day like Thursday the 16th, you might have a few locals out, but it’s not going to be packed. The break is inconsistent and rarely breaks well, so any decent day is worth jumping on.

So, to sum it up: don’t bother paddling out until at least Thursday the 16th. That’s the one to circle. Everything else is either too small, too messy, or both. Check back with me – forecasts can change. Rusty out.

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