Rat Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it's Rusty. Alright, we’ve got a pretty long look at Rat Beach, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a tough stretch. The next 16 days are a proper grind for surfers. We’re starting now, and honestly, there isn’t really a decent wave on offer until at least the morning of Wednesday the 8th, that’s nearly four days of flat, weak dribble to start.

For the first few days, from Saturday the 4th right through to Tuesday the 8th, it’s tiny, weak, and messy. We’re looking at swell heights barely breaking 1.0ft to 3ft, with periods hanging around 4 to 7 seconds and the combined energy is pitiful—single digits and low double digits (3, 3, 9, 32, 51, 36). Winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore, with some clean patches early in the mornings, but the surf is just too small to get excited about.

Wednesday morning the 8th offers the first real chance to paddle out. It’s only about 3ft swell from the west with a 7-second period, combined energy at 56 (still weak, don’t get carried away). The wind is light cross-offshore from the SSW, which will keep the surface clean. It’s tiny and ordinary, just about surfable if you’re desperate for a paddle.

Thursday morning the 9th sees a spike in period—16 seconds from the southwest (a long-period groundswell), combined energy jumps to 157 (moderate) but the swell height is only about 2ft. That long period will make it lined up and clean with a light offshore from the SSE, but it’s still tiny. This sort of long period on a reef setup like Rat Beach can be a treat for shape, but 2ft is barely breaking consistently. The water is 68°F, which is about 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year—so that’s notably warm and pretty inviting for a session.

From here, the forecast goes through a real desert of small, weak surf through to the middle of the second week. There’s a stretch from around the 11th to the 13th where combined energy drops back to as low as 6 (you can barely feel it). A few clean mornings pop up, like on Monday the 13th with light winds and about 2ft swell, but the energy is still weak. Crowds are possible here, even when it’s tiny, because Rat Beach is inconsistent—it doesn’t break often, so when there’s anything rideable, people do show up.

Heading into the second week, we finally see some life in the water. On Wednesday morning the 15th, it’s about 1ft swell from the SW with an 18-second period, combined energy at 129 (moderate) and clean cross-offshore wind. It’s still not big, but the quality of that swell is promising. Then Thursday morning the 16th is similar with 1ft, 16-second period, and clean conditions again.

The biggest pulse for the whole outlook hits on Saturday the 18th. The morning shows about 2ft swell from the SW with a 17-second period and combined energy at 267 (strong energy for this spot). Winds are light cross-onshore though, the only downside. The afternoon has energy at 224—still strong. This is the one standout of the entire 16-day run. The swell direction matches the guidance optimum (NW is the call for the best angle, but this SW is the most energetic we get). Given Rat Beach is a reef, that long-period swell should hold up nicely and produce some proper, lined-up waves. The size is still only around 2ft, but the energy behind it is big for the break. However, it won’t be perfect conditions because of the cross-onshore breeze. If you’re an expert, you’ll find a wave; beginners won’t be thrilled, but it’s not too big for them at that size.

Honestly, the standout window is Thursday the 16th through Sunday the 19th, with Saturday the 18th morning being the best on offer. It’s still not huge, but it’s the most interesting surf in a long, dry period. Crowds are possible, so it won’t be lonely out there.

Signing off, Rusty.

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