Hobe Sound/The Refuge Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got coming down the pike for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, this is a tough stretch for the area. Right from the start and for most of the next week, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing. The swell is tiny, the wind is often messy, and the wave comment keeps saying poor surf conditions. There’s a long, quiet gap with no real recommendations. We don’t see anything worthwhile until we get into the second week, and even then, it’s a wait-and-see game.

Starting out, Monday the 14th is flat. I’m talking 0.2m (0.7ft), short period junk from the ENE, with a risk of thunderstorms. The water temp is sitting at a warm 30° (86°F), which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s about the only positive. Tuesday and Wednesday are more of the same – tiny, weak, and onshore or cross-onshore wind. A little bump in size appears Wednesday the 16th with a 1.2m to 1.4m (4ft to 5ft) NNE/NE swell, but the period is short (6-7 seconds) and the wind is cross-onshore at 25 km/h (16 mph), so it’s going to be chopped out and ugly. Wave energy climbs a bit to moderate (111-225), but the quality just isn’t there. Thursday the 17th through Saturday the 19th keeps the trend of small, onshore slop. Sunday the 20th morning offers a brief moment of glassy conditions with a 0.5m (2ft) swell from the NE, but it’s barely enough to surf.

We get a second surge of energy starting Wednesday the 24th. A 1.3m (4ft) N swell shows up Thursday the 24th morning, with a longer period of 9 seconds and moderate energy (299). The wind is still cross-onshore, but lighter, so it might clean up a bit. That trend continues into Friday the 25th with a 1.4m to 1.5m (5ft to 5ft) NE swell and a 9-second period. Wave energy is strong (302-351). The wind stays cross-onshore but light, which gives us a chance at some rideable, if not perfect, waves.

The best of the whole run looks to be Saturday the 26th morning. We’ve got a 1.5m (5ft) swell from the NE with a 9-second period and strong energy (359). The wind is a light cross-onshore from the NE at 10 km/h (6 mph). It’s not totally clean, but it’s the most energy and size we’ll see, and the light wind means it won’t be totally shredded. The wave comment shifts to “marginal” instead of poor, which is the best we get. It’s an intermediate-level wave, and the break is Hobe Sound/The Refuge, a beach and reef setup. This is a fairly consistent spot, so when the swell shows, it can line up. The wind isn't ideal, but it’s the standout window in an otherwise bleak outlook. There’s a chance of crowds as this is a spot that can get busy when it’s the only game in town.

Sunday the 27th morning sees a similar 1.3m (4ft) swell from the NNE, but the wind goes light and cross-shore, which could offer a brief window of cleaner shape. After that, Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th see the swell slowly fade and the onshore wind returns.

So, to put it simply: the first week is a write-off. The second week has a few days of marginal but potentially fun, chest-to-head-high surf. Lock in Saturday the 26th morning as your best bet, but keep your expectations realistic. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the best we’ve got.

Rusty.

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