Hobe Sound/The Refuge Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next couple of weeks for this stretch of coast. I gotta level with you – the forecast is a long, flat spell, so don't be in a rush to wax up.

We’re starting off on Sunday, July 12th, and honestly, the outlook is pretty grim right through the entire 16-day window. The swell is tiny, barely scraping above 3 ft at its best, and the periods are short, mostly hanging around the 4 to 8 second mark. That’s weak, windswell energy – forget any real push or power. The combined energy values at the better times are only in the low 30s (33), which is weak wave energy, just not enough to get excited about.

The one spot we’ve got to work with is Hobe Sound/The Refuge. It’s a beach and reef setup that’s fairly consistent, but it’s exposed to the swell and needs a NE direction to really line up. Unfortunately, we just don't get that combination with any size. The water temperature is sitting at a warm 86°, which is a touch above the long-term average for this time of year – the anomaly is 1°, so nothing extreme, just a nice warm bath.

Let’s walk through the best of a bad bunch. The first notable window is around Wednesday, July 15th. That morning it’s dead calm, glassy, with a little 2 ft NE swell – but the period is only 8 seconds. It’s clean and pretty, but you’ll be bobbing around on tiny lumps. The energy is weak (29). That afternoon the breeze swings onshore and messes it up.

Then we’ve got a few mornings with offshore or glassy winds. On Thursday, July 16th, we see a 1 ft NE swell with a clean offshore W wind at 10 km/h (6 mph). Again, small but workable if you’re on a log. The same story repeats for Friday, July 17th and Saturday, July 18th – tiny 0.7 ft swells with clean conditions, but hardly worth paddling out for.

The most promising window – and I say that with a heavy heart – is Monday, July 20th. That morning we get a glassy, clean start with a 3 ft swell out of the SE at a 4-second period. It’s short period junky windswell, but it’s the biggest we see in the whole run, with combined energy of 33. Still tiny, and that short period means it’ll be weak and crumbly. Not recommended if you’re not on a foamie.

After that, it’s back to tiny chop and onshore winds through the second week, with a few mornings staying clean but with barely a ripple. By July 25th, the wind is pumping up to 18 mph from the SE, making it a lumpy, choppy mess. At that point, with such poor surf quality and that cross-onshore breeze, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Look, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there is not a single standout session in this entire 16-day run. Everything is rated poor. The best I can say is to keep an eye on Monday morning, July 20th for a tiny, glassy chance on the high-volume board. Otherwise, the forecast is a total write-off. It’s just one of those flat spells for this area.

Rusty.

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