Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one for Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak. We’re looking at a real flat spell across the entire 16-day window, with pretty much nothing to get excited about. The first hint of any surf worth a look doesn’t appear until Thursday morning the 9th of July, and even then it’s a real struggle.

For the first week, from Friday the 3rd through to Wednesday the 8th, you’re looking at a long run of tiny, weak, and mostly messy conditions. Swell heights are hanging around 0.7 ft to 2 ft, with periods mostly at 7 to 8 seconds – that’s short-period, weak windswell. The combined energy is laughably low, with values bouncing between 11 and 50 – that’s weak energy, no question. Winds are all over the shop, with a lot of cross-on and cross-shore breezes, making the surface choppy and crummy. There’s a bit of a reprieve on the weekend mornings with some light offshore or cross-off winds, but the swell is just too small to do anything with. The water is sitting at 82°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, but nothing wild.

Finally, on Thursday morning the 9th of July, we get a tiny glimmer. The swell bumps up to 1 ft from the east, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy reaches 40 – still weak, but it’s the best we’ll see. The wind is light from the south, giving us a clean cross-off breeze. It’s surfable, but I’d call it very ordinary. The afternoon sees a bit more energy (117 – moderate energy) with a 3 ft east-southeast swell, but the wind swings to a moderate cross-shore, ruining any chance of quality.

After that, it’s back to the same story. From Friday the 10th right through to Saturday the 18th of July, we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel. Swell heights barely reach 3 ft, periods are short, and the combined energy mostly sits in the low double digits. Winds are a mixture of cross-off and cross-shore, with a few clean moments, but the swell is just too small and weak to make it worthwhile. The break itself is a beach and jetty setup, exposed to the northeast, but with the swell coming from the east and southeast, it’s not catching much. Given the persistent small swell and frequent chop, this setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the period.

To be clear, there are no real standout options here. The best you can hope for is a sneaky early morning session on Thursday the 9th of July, with clean, glassy conditions, but you’ll be on a 1 ft, 9-second wave. It’s bleak. The good news is that Sebastian Inlet is fairly consistent, so this kind of blank run isn’t permanent, and forecasts can change. But for now, I’d give the board a rest and look at the long-range models with a pinch of salt.

Rusty.

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