Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. We’ve got a bit of a rough stretch here at Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak to start, and honestly, there’s nothing really worth paddling out for in the next week. We’re looking at a lot of junky, short-period wind swell out of the east-northeast, and the wind isn’t doing us any favors. It’s mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the wave heights are just too inconsistent and weak to get excited about. There’s some serious energy coming later on, but we’ve gotta pay our dues first.

Starting off from Wednesday the 16th through to about Monday the 21st, it’s grim. Swell heights are mostly under a metre and a half, the period’s sitting down around 6 to 8 seconds, and the energy is weak—you’re looking at values like 112, 231, or even down to 20 and 29 (all in the weak range). Wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and there’s even a risk of thunderstorms. Surf quality is just poor. It’s not even worth looking at, to be honest.

Then we go into a bit of a dead zone from Tuesday the 22nd through Saturday the 26th. The swell tries to pick up a little—heights nudge up to 1.6m or 1.7m—but the period is still short, 6 to 7 seconds, and the wind stays cross-onshore. That’s just chop. There’s a bit more energy on the 24th (267 on the morning, 275 on the afternoon) but it’s still poor-quality surf. You’d be fighting it the whole time.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday the 27th through Monday the 28th, we get a solid pulse of swell. The energy jumps way up—605 on Sunday morning, then 2251 on Monday morning and 3055 on Monday afternoon. That’s strong, powerful stuff, but it’s mostly cross-onshore and choppy. Wave heights are pushing 3.5m to 4.0m on Monday. That’s way too big for this break, and the wind is going to mess it up. This is definitely not beginner territory—over 2.5m and you need to be an expert. Even then, with the chop, it’s not going to be clean.

Tuesday the 29th, the swell is still big—3.0m to 3.5m—but the period has stretched out to 11 seconds, so there’s more power behind it. Still, it’s cross-onshore and choppy, and the forecast is saying it’s too big for this break. Not the one.

Then we roll into Wednesday the 30th and Thursday the 1st of October. The swell drops back to 2.0m to 2.1m, still with that 11-second period, but the wind is still cross-onshore or light cross-onshore. Early Thursday morning, though, the wind goes glassy. That’s our window. The energy is still solid—1049 on Wednesday morning, 921 on Wednesday afternoon, and 457 on Thursday morning—but it’s not crazy. Swell direction is east-northeast, which is what we want. It’s a long-period groundswell, which can be a bit tricky at a beach/jetty setup like this—might break a bit straight—but with the glass, it’ll at least be clean. This is the standout of the whole run. Still, it’s not perfect, and it’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not a lock.

All in all, if you really want to surf, wait for Thursday the 1st. It’s the only time the wind and the swell line up. Everything before that is a grind.

Alright, that’s the look. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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