Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get stuck into it.

First up, the honest truth. The next week and a half is looking pretty grim for a proper surf. We’ve got a stretch here at Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak (Sebastian Inlet) that’s mostly small, junky, and wind-blown. A lot of the swell we’re seeing is short-period windswell, and the wind’s chewing it all up. Right now, we’re looking at a knee-high dribble with an easterly angle, and while it’s glassy this morning (Monday the 14th), there’s just no push to it. The water temp is sitting at a toasty 85°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won't need a hood.

Things actually get worse before they get better. Tuesday and Wednesday see the wind swing onshore and strengthen, with a couple of pulses of a bit more size on Wednesday the 16th. We’re talking maybe 5-5ft, but it’s coming from the NE with a period of just 7 seconds, and it’s going to be a total mess. That’s not surf, that’s just a washing machine. The combined energy is moderate at best (198-208), but with that wind and period, it’ll be all chop and no shape. Keep the board in the car for that one.

We then go through a long, flat, and frustrated spell. From Thursday the 17th through to Thursday the 24th, it’s just one poor forecast after another. The size drops back down to below 3ft, the period is all over the shop, and the wind keeps switching between cross, cross-on, and sometimes a bit of a cross-off. There are cleaner moments – the Sunday the 20th morning has a clean cross-off, and the Thursday the 24th morning looks glassy too – but with waves barely reaching 1ft on the 20th and 3ft on the 24th, it’s not going to be worth the paddle. The energy levels are weak, reading 24 and 123 respectively. It’s a long stretch of nothing, which is a real kicker.

Now, the light at the end of the tunnel. The first real glimmer of hope comes on Friday the 25th of September. We’ve got a morning forecast that’s calling for clear skies, a light southerly cross-off wind, and clean conditions. The swell is a proper 4ft from the NE with a period of 8 seconds. Now, 8 seconds isn't long period, but it’s better than what we’ve had. The combined energy is strong, coming in at 218.

This is the standout of the whole period. It’s not going to be huge, but it’s going to be clean, and after a fortnight of junk, clean waves at 4ft are a godsend. The direction is from the NE, which is right in the optimum window for this spot. Get on it early, as the onshore ESE wind kicks in for the afternoon and chops it up.

The next morning, Saturday the 26th, also has some potential. The swell holds in at 4ft from the NE, and the period stretches out to 9 seconds. The energy is even stronger at 277. The only catch is a light NE wind that’s straight onshore and the forecast shows it as marginal. But if you get out there at first light before the seabreeze kicks in, it could still be clean-ish. It’s a more uncertain call, but it’s the only other time in the whole window that looks like it has a chance to be decent.

After that, things back off again. The week after the 26th sees the swell drop right out, with weak energy readings up to 405 on the 29th, but that’s windswell from the east with 15 mph winds and a period of 9 seconds. That’s not clean surf, and I wouldn’t get too excited.

So, plain and simple: mark your calendar for the morning of Friday the 25th. That’s your best shot. Saturday morning is the backup, but it's a gamble. The rest is a write-off.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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