Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get stuck into it.

Well, honestly, the next week and a half is a real grind if you’re chasing waves at Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak. We’re looking at a whole lot of small, weak, and mostly junky surf. The energy just isn’t there. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny swells under 3ft, with most days hanging around the 0.6ft to 1ft mark. It’s pretty flat and pretty frustrating. The morning windows are definitely the best bet, with clean, glassy conditions and some light offshore winds here and there, but there’s just no push to make it worth a paddle.

The water’s still warm, sitting at 83°F, which is about normal for this time of year. You won’t need a bootie, that’s for sure.

The first few days, from the 5th through the 8th, are basically a write-off. We're talking minimal swell energy, in the low teens to 30s. There's a bit of texture on the water in the afternoons as the seabreeze kicks in, but it’s not doing us any favors. Keep the board in the car.

We finally see a slight bump on the morning of the 9th. The swell pushes up to 3ft from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds. The energy reading jumps a bit too, to 90. It’s still nothing to get excited about, but it’s surfable. The glassy conditions that morning will make it look better than it is. It’s still very ordinary.

After that, we’re back into the doldrums from the 10th through the 17th. Lots of poor surf conditions, with the swell dropping back down below 2ft. There are some clean mornings in there, like the 15th, but the swell is just too weak. The energy readings stay low, mostly in the 20s and 30s, with a couple of days peeking into the 50s. There’s also a stretch from the 15th to the 17th where the wind goes more onshore, which chops things up further. Honestly, for a solid week, there is nothing worth stressing about.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The back half of the period, starting on the 18th, shows a real pulse of energy. It’s still a way off, so don’t book the time off just yet, but the models are hinting at something with a bit more grunt. On the morning of the 18th, we’ve got a jump in the swell to 4ft from the NE, and that combined energy reading is a strong 398. The period is still a modest 9 seconds, and it’s straight onshore, which will make it a bit lumpy, but there’s finally some power behind it.

The 19th and 20th continue to show promise. We're looking at similar swell sizes, with the 20th seeing a peak of 4ft from the East. The energy readings are strong to very strong on the 20th afternoon, hitting 526. The problem is the wind. It’s blowing onshore and ramping up, hitting 19 mph on the morning of the 20th. This could turn it into a bit of a mess, but with that much juice in the water, it could still be a session for the more experienced crew. The period bumps up to 10 seconds, so there’s a little more quality in the lines.

So, if you have to pick your moment, keep an eye on the 18th through the 20th. It’s not going to be perfect, and the wind is going to be a factor, but it’s the only time in the next couple of weeks that there’s real size and energy. It might be a bit much for beginners at 4ft to 4ft, and the onshore wind won't help, but for anyone with a bit of experience, it’s the most promising window we’ve got in this outlook.

Rusty

Read more