Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s get straight into what we’ve got coming up over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest with you, this stretch is a real mixed bag – and for the most part, it’s a pretty flat and frustrating one. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with barely a ripple worth paddling for, and then a late pulse of something a bit more interesting way out in the second week. Let’s break it down.

We’re talking about *Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak* (a beach/jetty setup) for the whole outlook. Right now, the water is sitting at a warm 83°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

The first week and a bit is a real struggle. From Thursday the 10th right through to Monday the 21st of September, the surf is tiny and mostly junk. You’ll see mornings with a bit of clean glass, like Friday the 11th with a glassy 1ft from the east-northeast, or Saturday the 12th with clean 1.0ft, but the energy is pathetic. The combined energy on those days is barely a whisper (32 and 31 respectively). The swell is short-period, weak, and just doesn’t have any punch. Most afternoons are blown out by a cross-shore breeze, making it choppy and messy. Honestly, for a solid 11 days, there’s nothing worth getting wet for. It’s a real flat spell.

Then, things start to change. Around Tuesday the 22nd of September, a new swell shows up. The combined energy jumps to 185 in the morning and 193 in the afternoon, which is moderate energy. Swell height is 4ft from the northeast, with a period of 8 seconds. The wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it’s going to be lumpy and a bit of a battle. Still, it’s a step up.

The real standout, the only one in this whole outlook, looks like it’s going to be Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th of September. This is the one to circle on the calendar. On Wednesday morning, we’re looking at a solid 6ft northeast swell, with a period of 10 seconds and a combined energy of 536 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is a moderate cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit choppy, but there’s real power in the water. Thursday the 24th pushes it even further, with 5ft NE swell, the period stretching to 11 seconds, and energy readings hitting 605 and 641. That’s a proper groundswell. Now, a word of caution: with a long period swell like that, a beach/jetty break like Third Peak can get a bit straight and dumpy, but there’ll be some serious juice. This is big, powerful surf – over 5ft and heading towards 8ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. Beginners, stay on the sand.

The wind stays onshore for most of this, so it’s not going to be perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got. The waves are a bit too big and choppy for a clean paddle, and with the onshore wind, this setup might actually look more interesting for a kite surfer than a pure paddle surfer on those days.

So, to sum it up: a long, flat, painful start, then a late surge of real, powerful swell. The only days worth chasing are the 23rd and 24th of September. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but it’s got promise. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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