Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get real about the forecast. For the next week and a half, we're in a holding pattern. Honestly, the surf is just not showing up. From the 11th through the 18th, there's nothing on the table that’s worth paddling out for. It's a long stretch of flatness, with ankle to knee-high slop and weak, short-period windswell. The winds are mostly cross or onshore, so even the tiny waves we might see will be lumpy and messy. And there's a lot of storm clouds around, so the vibe is just off.

Then, on the 16th, the swell kicks up to around 5 feet, but it's a junky, short-period windswell with a period of only 7 seconds. The wind is howling onshore from the northeast at 15-18 mph. This is not a surf day. This is a day to stay on the beach. With that much onshore wind and that kind of swell, the setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

That pulse dies off just as fast as it came, leaving us back in a funk of tiny surf and poor conditions through the 20th and 21st. There are a couple of glassy mornings in there on the 19th and 20th, but with waves around 1-2 feet, it’s not enough to get excited about.

Now, here’s the light at the end of the tunnel. It’s a long way off, but the morning of the 22nd brings a shift. The wind turns light offshore from the south-southeast, and the swell builds to a clean 3 feet from the northeast. It’s still a bit short in period, but the energy is starting to build.

But the one I’m really circling on my calendar is the morning of Saturday the 26th. This is the standout of the whole run. The wind goes offshore from the south-southwest at 15 mph, and the swell jumps to around 4 feet from the east-northeast. The period stretches all the way out to 12 seconds, which is a real groundswell with some serious push. The energy reading hits 442, which is a hefty amount of power heading our way. This is the day to be at Sebastian Inlet-Third Peak. That offshore wind will have the faces clean, and that long-period swell will have some real grunt. It might make the waves a little more lined up and faster, so the jetty could be the spot. This is a promising long-range call, so don’t get too attached to it just yet, but it’s definitely the one that’s got me stoked.

The water temp at the start is 83.3°, which is normal for this time of year, so it’s still warm enough for a spring suit or just boardshorts.

So don't sweat the flat spell. It’s a long lull, but it’s not going to last forever. The 26th is looking like the day to clear your schedule.

Stay patient.

Read more