Chernobyl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s be straight with you. The next two weeks are going to be a real struggle for waves around here. The forecast is a long, flat, and messy stretch with very little to get excited about. We’re looking at a gap of several days with no real surf on offer to start.

The first glimmer of anything comes in on the morning of Monday, August 3rd, but even then it’s a tough call. The swell is tiny, only 2 ft coming from the east with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 31. The wind is a cross-offshore from the southwest, which is okay, but the water is a bit colder than normal at 82°F, and it’s just labeled as “poor surf conditions.” It’s not worth paddling out for.

The pattern holds through the week. Tuesday morning, August 4th, sees a slightly bigger 2 ft from the east-southeast, but still with a short 8-second period. The wind is cross-off from the south-southwest, keeping it clean, but the combined energy is only 44. The file says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is about as positive as it gets. Honestly, it’s still a flat day.

From Wednesday, August 5th, right through to the afternoon of Monday, August 17th, the story is the same: tiny swell, mostly under 2 ft, onshore or cross-onshore winds, and short periods. The combined energy stays below 100 for most of that time, indicating very weak wave energy. It’s a cruel, flat run. There is a brief spike on Friday, August 7th, with the swell hitting 5 ft to 5 ft from the east, and the energy jumping to 172 and 227, but it’s all onshore wind from the east at 12-15 mph, making it a complete mess. Not worth a look.

The only real standout, and I mean the *only* one, is a very brief moment on the morning of Monday, August 17th. The wind turns offshore from the west-northwest, blowing at 6 mph, which will clean things right up. The swell is still tiny at 1 ft from the east-southeast, with a period of 8 seconds and a combined energy of only 22. It’s not going to be a wave of consequence, but if you’re desperate for a clean, small-wave session on a longboard, that’s your window. For a beginner, the tiny size is actually fine, but the lack of power is the real issue.

To be clear, the best option on offer is Chernobyl, and it’s a bleak pick. It’s a beginner break that is fairly consistent, but the crowds are often there. The optimum swell direction is north-northeast, and we’re getting nothing but east and east-southeast. It’s exposed, but it’s not doing us any favors.

The break is a beginner spot, and if the swell were over 5 ft it might be too much, but that's not an issue here. The short periods (under 8 seconds) mean the waves will be weak and crumbly. The long period swells (over 15 seconds) are not forecast, so no caveats there.

So, there you have it. A long, flat period with a single, tiny window of clean conditions. Not a good outlook. If you’re a kite surfer, the high winds on Friday, August 7th, with that 5 ft messy swell, might look tempting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a write-off. It tends not to stay poor for long around here, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty.

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