Fortress Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Fortress has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – this is a tough run. The water temp is sitting at about 73°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, no drama there. But the surf... well, it’s a lean stretch.

Right from the start, Monday the 10th is a write-off. Tiny 2 ft southerly slop on a short 5-second period, with a messy cross-shore wind. Don’t even bother.

We’ve got a real dry spell here. From Tuesday the 11th all the way through to Saturday the 16th, it’s just ankle-biters. Heights stay between 1 ft and 3 ft, all from the south or south-southwest, with periods mostly around 5-7 seconds. Even on the rare occasions the wind goes offshore or clean, there’s just not enough oomph in the water. The combined swell energy is in the weak zone – hitting as low as 14 and peaking at only 31. There’s no saving it.

Sunday the 17th gets a little interesting, but it’s not pretty. Monday morning the 17th shows a 5 ft south swell with a short 6-second period and a strong cross-onshore wind at 25 mph – just messy and lumpy. By Monday afternoon, the swell pushes up to 6 ft from the south-southwest (270 combined energy – that’s moderate energy now) and the wind switches to a cross-offshore, so it cleans up. But with a 7-second period, the waves will be crumbly and fat. Still, it’s the first proper size all run. I’d call it a marginal day at best – only for those who are really jonesing.

Now, here’s where it gets weird and a little promising. Tuesday morning the 18th: we’ve got a 2 ft swell, but it’s from the southeast with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is 202 (moderate) and it’s clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. Now, a long-period groundswell like that at a reef break like Fortress (exposed to southeast) means the waves will have some real shape and push. But a 2 ft south-east swell with 15-second period? It might be glassy and rideable, but it’s likely to be very sleepy between sets and breaking straight. Worth a paddle if you’re desperate, but not a standout.

Wednesday the 19th sees that long-period energy peak in the afternoon: 2 ft from the southeast with a 17-second period and a combined energy of 424 – that’s strong wave energy! But look at the wind: moderate cross-shore from the SSW at 12 mph, putting a cross-chop on it. For a reef break, that long-period SE groundswell with cross-shore wind could turn it into a bumpy, shifting mess. It’s a real tease.

Thursday the 20th morning cleans up a bit with a cross-offshore wind, but the swell is only 3 ft from the southeast (10 seconds, 213 combined energy). Better than nothing, but not what you’d call firing.

From the 21st right through to the 25th, it’s back to weak, short-period onshore windswell. Heights hover around 1 ft to 4 ft, but the wind is always cross-on or onshore and the periods are short (5-7 seconds). Combined energy drops back below 200, often well below. The 23rd and 24th even see onshore ESE winds. Just a flat, sloppy end to the outlook.

So, what’s the best on offer?

Honestly, the Tuesday morning 18th session is the most surfable wave. It’s only 2 ft, but that very long 15-second SE groundswell with light offshore wind will give a clean, lined-up wave on the reef. Just don’t expect power or size.

The Wednesday afternoon 19th has the most energy in the water (424 combined energy), but that cross-shore wind is going to spoil it. If you’re an expert who can work with a tricky wind, maybe. Otherwise, it’s a no-go.

The Monday afternoon 17th is the only day with real size (6 ft), but the short period means it’s going to be fat and won’t hold a good shape. Beginners should stay clear of anything over 5 ft.

Overall, this is a long, lean run with very few windows. The first week is a total dud. The second week teases with some long-period energy but can’t get the wind to play ball. It’s a waiting game at Fortress.

Rusty.

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