Fortress Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the surf situation for Fortress. I’m gonna be straight with you – it’s looking pretty grim for a long stretch. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first real chance of anything worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until the very end.

Right from the start, on Sunday the 12th of July, it’s flat and messy. Tiny, weak swell around 1 ft to 1 ft from the south, with periods that are short and fat. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross-onshore, so the surface is chopped up. No energy at all – the combined swell energy is a measly 33 (weak energy). That’s a no-go.

This poor run hangs around for over two weeks. Day after day – Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, all the way through the weekend and into the next week – we’re looking at tiny, weak, short-period swell. The wind isn’t kind either, mostly cross or cross-off, occasionally offshore, but the swell is just too small to do anything with. The energy numbers stay in the weak range, barely cracking 100. There’s a couple of glassy moments on the 18th of July, but the swell is only 0.3 ft – you could surf it on a bodyboard and still be bored.

By the 19th, we see a slight bump up to 3 ft, but it’s choppy and onshore. The energy finally hits 131 (moderate) on the 19th afternoon, but the wind is on it and the period is short (7 seconds). It’s a no from me.

The 20th through the 24th are all similar – waist-high and below, with messy winds and weak energy. The swell direction is consistently from the south or southeast, which is fine for Fortress (its optimum is SE), but there’s just no power behind it.

Finally, we get a flicker of hope on Monday the 27th of July. The morning shows a jump in swell to 5 ft from the south, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy hits 252 (moderate wave energy). And the wind? It’s glassy – dead calm, east at 3 mph. That is the standout in this whole outlook. The forecast even says “expect good surf conditions” with a score that suggests it’ll be a decent session. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

But before that, it’s a long, long wait. There’s a gap of about 15 days of nothing worth mentioning. For a reef break that’s fairly consistent, this is a tough run, but it won’t stay poor forever. Keep an eye on that Monday the 27th – it’s the only real chance, and with glassy conditions, it could be a gem.

Rusty, out.

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