Fortress Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for any real surf, to be honest. We’ve got a long stretch of small, junky waves on the horizon, so you might want to dust off the longboard or find another way to get your salt fix for a while.

The first real window of *anything* doesn’t show up until the upcoming Saturday morning, the 15th. There’s a bump in size with a 5ft south swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s not going to have much push. The wind is forecast to be glassy though, which will make it clean. The water temp is sitting at 70°, which is about 2° colder than average for this time of year, so you’ll feel that nip.

Before that, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing. From Tuesday the 4th right through to Friday the 14th, it’s a wasteland. Wave heights hover around the 2ft to 4ft mark with periods of 6 to 7 seconds, and the energy readings are weak, mostly in double digits. The winds are mostly cross or cross-off, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and messy. There are a couple of mornings with a light offshore wind, like the 9th and 10th, but the swell is just too small and weak to make it worth the paddle. It’s a solid ten-day gap with no good options.

Now, back to that Saturday the 15th. The morning is the standout, purely because of the clean conditions. The 5ft south swell at Fortress (Lisbon) is about the best we’re going to see, but the short period means it’s going to be a bit drifty and not super well-shaped. The energy is moderate at 354, but the wave quality is only rated as “good” by the model, not great. The afternoon sees the swell jump to 7ft and the energy spike to 804, but the wind swings cross-shore and the period stays at 8 seconds, which will make it a chop fest. It’ll be too big and messy for the beginners, and just average for everyone else.

After that, it’s back to the small stuff. Sunday the 16th drops back down to under 3ft, and from Monday the 17th onward, the swell direction shifts to the southeast and the waves become tiny and onshore. The model is showing some energy for the 15th, but it’s a one-hit wonder in an otherwise flat spell. Honestly, the forecast confidence for that Saturday is decent as it’s close, but the long-range outlook is just a reminder that this stretch is a write-off. Keep your expectations low and your hopes high for a change.

Rusty

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