Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, I won’t sugarcoat it – this is a tough stretch for Fall Bay Reef. The water is sitting at 67°F, which is a whopping 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year, and that’s very unusual. It feels more like a late summer bath than the brisk autumn water we’d normally expect. But the warm water won’t save the surf.

We kick off on Wednesday the 26th of August with tiny 1-foot waves from the west. The morning is a write-off with a cross-on breeze, but the afternoon goes glassy with a 3 mph easterly. It’s still only 1 foot though, with a short 8-second period – barely a ripple. Not worth paddling out.

Thursday and Friday stay small and messy. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and the swell stays under 2 feet until Friday morning. On Friday the 28th, we do see a pulse of 4 feet from the southwest with a short 6-second period, and the combined wave energy hits 92 – that’s weak. The wind is cross-shore and brisk, so it’s choppy crud. Friday afternoon bumps to 4 feet (energy 154), but again, a cross-shore wind ruins it.

The weekend gets bigger but ugly. Saturday the 29th has 6 feet swell from the southwest in the morning with a 25 mph southerly onshore – that’s a washing machine. The afternoon is 7 feet with a 31 mph near gale. Energy is up to 525, but it’s blown to bits. Sunday is similar: 6 feet to 7 feet with onshore winds and risk of thunderstorms. It’s just a mess out there.

Monday the 31st is the closest we get to a highlight, but it’s still marginal. The morning has 8 feet swell from the west-southwest with a 9-second period and a clean, cross-off wind from the west-northwest. The wave energy is a strong 958, so there’s power. The swell direction matches the optimum for Fall Bay Reef (SW) well enough, but the size at 8 feet is pushing expert territory on a reef break. The morning window looks cleanest, but it’s not for beginners. The wind goes cross-shore in the afternoon and the quality drops.

After that, it fades. Tuesday the 1st of September has 7 feet morning swell but it gets chopped up by strong winds. Through the rest of the first week of September and into the second week, the swell drops below 3 feet again, with periods of cross-off and offshore winds but simply no size. The best chance for a clean but small wave is on Saturday the 5th of September morning – 3 feet from the west-southwest with a light cross-off breeze and clean conditions. It’s surfable but ordinary.

The last glimmer is on Tuesday the 8th of September afternoon, when a 4 feet southwest swell meets a clean offshore north wind. The period is short at 6 seconds, but the wind is good. Still, it’s just a tiny glimpse of potential in a very quiet run of days.

Honestly, if you’re on the fence, the Monday the 31st of August morning is the standout – 8 feet, clean, powerful, but it’s a reef setup so it’s for experienced surfers only. Expect crowds possible at this one. Everything else? A whole lot of wind, small waves, and flat spells.

Rusty.

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