Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted to be the bearer of bad news here, but this stretch of coast is looking properly flat for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a real blank run on our hands, and honestly, that’s not all that unusual for this region when things settle down. There’s nothing on the horizon that’s going to get the heart rate up, and the few pulses of energy we do see are just not going to translate into anything rideable. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is looking like a write-off for the boards.

We start this Saturday the 15th with the swell absolutely tiny at Fall Bay Reef, only about 1.3ft, and that’s with a weak 35 combined energy. For a reef setup, it’s just not doing anything, not breaking with any sort of shape. The water is a very unusual 68.9°, a solid seven degrees above what’s normal for this time of year, which feels more like a warm bath than the ocean. The small window we had on Sunday morning with a little offshore wind was the only tease, but it was still just ankle-biters.

The following week nudges up a little but it’s all for nothing. The swell picks up to around 4ft on Tuesday the 18th, but the period is a mushy 6 seconds and the winds are cross-shore, making for a lumpy mess. The energy ticks up into the moderate range, hitting 115 on Tuesday morning, but it’s just messy, short-period windswell with no push or form. By Thursday the 20th, we see the biggest reading of the whole run, with swell around 5ft and the combined energy jumping to 434, but it’s still that short, period-challenged stuff and the winds are again cross-shore. It’s a lot of water moving around but none of it is any good for a reef break like this. The wave comment even calls it marginal, but the conditions are all wrong.

After that, it just falls off a cliff again. From the 22nd through to the end of the month, we’re back down to knee-high slop, mostly under 1.6ft. There’s one long-period pulse on the 25th and 26th, with an incoming swell of 0.3ft and a 12-13 second period, but that’s beyond tiny and is more about the ocean breathing than offering a wave. The energy is almost nonexistent, in the low double digits. Even the glassy spells, like the one on the 27th, are over water that’s just flat and featureless. It’s clean, but it’s empty.

Honestly, if you’re desperate to get wet, you’d be better off looking for a flat-water paddle or just giving it a miss entirely. There’s no surf to be had here, not for a long while.

Read more