Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, listen up. Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Fall Bay Reef.

The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy stuff before we finally see a proper pulse of energy. Don’t get your hopes up too early.

First up, the surf is pretty much a no-go from now until the morning of the 13th of August. The swell is tiny, barely 0.7ft to 2ft, and the wind is all over the shop – cross, cross-on, with a light to moderate breeze. The wave energy is weak, with figures like 12 and 99. It’s just not worth paddling out for.

The morning of Thursday the 13th of August offers a slight glimmer. The wind turns light and cross-off from the NW, setting up a clean surface. We’ve got a 3ft swell from the WSW with a 10-second period, and the combined energy bumps up to 184 (moderate). The commentary says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is about right. It’s a “one” out of ten, so it’s better than a flat day, but don’t expect any fireworks.

Then we go through another dry spell. The 14th and 15th see the swell drop back to 2ft to 3ft with weak energy (54 to 99). The wind stays cross-off, so it’s clean, but the waves are just too small to get excited about. The 16th has a glassy morning with a 1ft swell, but again, the energy is only 18. That’s a knee-high day at best.

Things get a bit more interesting from the 18th of August. A swell pushes up to 4ft on the Tuesday morning, with a 7-second period and 124 combined energy. The wind is cross-off from the NW, so it’s clean. The score is still a zero, though, so the quality isn’t there. The afternoon sees a similar story with a fresh breeze and 148 energy.

The real standout in this forecast is the morning of Wednesday the 19th of August. The swell hits 6ft from the W, with a combined energy of 326 (strong). The wind is a moderate cross-off from the WNW, keeping it clean. The commentary says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” but it’s the best wave height we’ve seen. However, at 6ft, it’s starting to get a little too big for beginners. The period is 7 seconds, which is short-period wind swell, so it won’t have the grunt of a groundswell, but it’s the most size we’ve got.

The afternoon of the 19th jumps to 7ft with 497 energy, but it’s still a zero score. The 20th of August has a 7ft swell from the W on the morning, with the wind turning light and cross from the ESE. The afternoon of the 20th is the highlight of the entire forecast. The swell drops slightly to 6ft from the WNW, but the wind goes glassy from the SE. The combined energy is still strong at 445, and the commentary says “expect good surf conditions” with a score of 2 out of 10. That’s the best call we get. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s still short-period, but with glassy conditions and that much energy, it should be the most fun you’ll have all week. At 6ft, it’s in the intermediate zone – bigger than beginner-friendly, but not quite expert-only.

The 21st sees the swell drop back to 3ft to 4ft, with a glassy morning and offshore wind in the afternoon. It’s surfable, but nothing special.

The rest of the period from the 22nd of August onward is a write-off. The wind goes cross-on, the swell is either too small or too choppy, and the energy levels are all over the place. The 23rd has a 7ft swell with 486 energy, but it’s cross-on and choppy, so it’s blown out. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

So, to call it straight: the best chance you’ve got is the afternoon of Thursday the 20th of August. That glassy window with a solid 6ft swell from the WNW is the one to circle on the calendar. The morning of the 19th of August is your second look, with 6ft and clean conditions. Everything else is a bit of a struggle.

Keep in mind, Fall Bay Reef is a reef break that’s inconsistent and can get crowded often. It’s fairly exposed to the swell, and it likes it from the SW. The water is currently 67°F which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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