Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's coming up for our local stretch. To be honest, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and uninviting. We've got a long stretch ahead with no real surf to get excited about. From this Sunday morning right the way through to late in the month, it's mostly a write-off. There’s a small window right at the end that might just be worth a look, but we’ve got a lot of flat, choppy days to get through first.

Let's start with the immediate forecast. It’s a tough one. Sunday, the 13th, kicks off with a weak 5ft swell from the WSW, but it's got a short period and cross winds, making for poor conditions. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a bit of a surprise. The combined wave energy is weak (263), and honestly, it's not worth paddling out. That theme continues through Monday and Tuesday with small, messy waves. On Tuesday the 15th, the wind cleans up to cross-off, but the swell is still weak and short-period. We see a bit more size on Wednesday the 16th, with a 5ft swell from the W and a longer period of 10 seconds, giving it moderate energy (463). It’s clean, but the quality is still poor. By Thursday the 17th, we’re back to a short period and moderate energy. Friday the 18th gets ugly, with a strong breeze from the SW at 28 mph making a total mess of a 7ft swell. Saturday the 19th brings the biggest swell of the forecast, hitting 8ft from the WSW, with strong energy (527). The wind is cross-off, so it'll be clean, but at that size, this is strictly for the experts. For most of us, that’s a day to watch from the beach.

After that, it drops right off. From Sunday the 20th onwards, the swell fades fast and we’re looking at tiny, weak surf for the better part of a week. There’s a brief flicker on Tuesday the 23rd, with a little 4ft swell and light offshore winds from the N, giving it a clean look, but the energy is minimal (163) and the conditions are still just “ordinary.” Not worth getting excited about.

Finally, right at the tail end, on Monday the 28th, there’s a tiny pulse of 3ft from the W. It’s clean with a cross-off breeze, but the energy is weak (82) and the period is short. It’s the best we’ve got, but it’s still not great. The glassy conditions on Thursday the 24th would be beautiful if there was any swell, but with only 1ft waves, it’s a flat calm.

So, the standout? There isn’t one, really. If I had to point to anything, it’d be the big swell on Saturday the 19th at Fall Bay Reef. It’s got the size and clean conditions, but it’s a short-period swell, it’s inconsistent, and crowds are likely. It’s really only for the experienced crew. For the rest of us, keep an eye on that Tuesday the 23rd for a slim chance, but don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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