Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break down Fall Bay Reef.

First thing, the water's running *much warmer than normal* for this time of year, so the water is feeling pretty toasty. Now, for the waves… it’s a tough stretch ahead.

We’re looking at a long, flat, and messy opening. From Monday the 24th through the end of the month, it’s all tiny junk – 1 foot to 2 foot of weak swell, with energy readings barely registering. Winds are all over the place, mostly cross-shore, creating a lot of chop. There’s a glassy window on Wednesday afternoon the 26th, but with a 1-foot swell, it’s a swimming pool, not a surf spot.

We finally get a bump of size on Friday the 28th with about 3-4 foot swell, but it’s cross-wind and the energy is only moderate. All junky. Saturday the 29th pushes up a bit more with 3-4 foot from the WSW, but straight onshore rain ruins it completely. Sunday the 30th is the same – onshore wind and lumpy.

Then on Monday the 31st, the ocean wakes up. A solid 8-foot W groundswell rolls in with a 10-second period and strong energy. The wind goes cross-offshore, so the faces will be *clean*. But at 8 feet on a reef that’s inconsistent, this is for experts only, and the channel will have its regulars out. This is a standout for size, but not for the faint of heart. Tuesday the 1st of September dumps right back down into weak knee-high junk.

We get another pulse on Wednesday the 2nd – 5 to 6 foot from the WSW, but it’s cross-shore and lumpy. Still poor quality. That pattern keeps going – size here and there, but always with wind or chop messing up the lines.

The big tease comes way out on September the 7th. We’re looking at an enormous 11-12 foot groundswell from the WSW with a massive 19-second period. The energy is off the charts in the very strong zone, and the morning wind is clean and offshore. That is a giant, powerful, clean swell. But for a reef break, that 19-second period is a real caveat – it can make the waves jack up fast and break straight, making it tricky. By the afternoon, the wind turns fresh and lumpy again.

So the one true standout is the morning of September the 7th. It’s the biggest and cleanest day by a mile, but it’s a long-range promise. Given how poor everything else is, you wait and hope. There are no easy, safe bets in this forecast.

Rusty, signing off.

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