Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, grab a coffee and listen close. We’re talking about Fall Bay Reef. It’s a reef break that’s inconsistent and needs a proper swell to get going. Looking over the next couple of weeks, it’s a frustrating story with a potentially big payoff way down the line. Water temps are about average for this time of year.

The forecast starts with a tough stretch. Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th offer some waist-high swell, around 3 ft to 5 ft from the WSW, but the wind is a real problem. We’ve got a fresh cross-shore and cross-off breeze blowing, leaving the surface lumpy and chopped up. It’s pretty ordinary.

Friday the 21st through to Tuesday the 27th of August is a quiet, flat period. We’re looking at tiny waves, ankle to knee-high at best, with combined wave energy barely registering (14 to 42). The wind does go glassy and clean on the Sunday morning, but there’s just nothing to ride. It’s a proper lull.

Then Thursday the 29th of August afternoon shows a glimmer. The swell bumps up to 4 ft from the WSW, the wind goes light cross-off, and the conditions clean up. The energy ticks up to 253, so it’s surfable but still very ordinary. This is more of a warm-up than a standout.

Now, here’s the part that has me talking. Look to the end of the forecast period. Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September. This is the one to circle on your calendar. A solid groundswell from the WSW pushes through with a 10-second period. Monday morning sees the swell hitting 12 ft, dropping to 10 ft in the afternoon, with a very strong wave energy reading (2091 and 1470). Tuesday morning is still pumping with 8 ft swell. The wind for these sessions is a clean cross-off. This is serious, powerful swell. At that size, over 8 ft, you’d want to be an experienced surfer. For a reef break like Fall Bay, that long-period, directional swell will set up some proper waves, but it can also make for a wild paddle out. The main let-down? The following Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday see the wind swing onshore or become strong, turning it to slop.

So, the honest truth? This is a long-range promise. For the next week and a half, you can leave the board in the car. The only true standout, and it’s a risk, is Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September. That’s your window for some serious, powerful waves at Fall Bay Reef. Keep an eye on it, but don’t lock your plans in just yet.

Rusty.

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