Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for Fall Bay Reef.

Honestly, it's a pretty grim outlook for the next 16 days. This spot is an inconsistent reef break, and it's living up to that reputation. The water is much warmer than normal for this time of year, a solid 68°, which is a good 6° above average, so you won't need a thick wetsuit, but that's about the only good news.

We start off with a real dud. Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th are a write-off. We're looking at small, short-period windswell, mostly 3 to 5 feet, with onshore and cross-shore winds ruining any chance of a wave. The combined energy is weak, bouncing around 117 to 142, and it's just lumpy, choppy mess.

There's a glimpse of something on Saturday afternoon, the 29th, with a light northwesterly going cross-offshore and a clean surface. The swell is still only 4 feet from the SW at 8 seconds, with moderate energy (142), but it's surfable, just very ordinary. Not worth paddling out for.

Sunday the 30th is back to rain and strong onshore winds, with the swell building to 6 feet. The energy kicks up to 690, but it's all onshore junk. Don't bother.

Monday the 31st of August is the only real standout in the whole 16 days, and even then it's a cautious one. The morning shows a 7 feet west swell with a 9-second period. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1552 – that's some real power. The wind is a clean cross-off from the WNW. This is the best window. That size is edging into the "too big for beginners" territory, and for an inconsistent reef, you'll want to be comfortable. The trade-off is a strong, clean, powerful swell, but it's a long-range call, so treat it with a little caution. The afternoon sees the wind shift cross-shore and the quality drops.

After that, it's a desert. From Tuesday the 1st of September all the way through to Saturday the 12th, the surf is either tiny, blown out, or both. The combined energy mostly stays below 100, and the wind is constantly onshore or cross-shore. There's a day or two with a clean offshore breeze (like the 5th and 6th of September), but the swell is just too small at 2 to 3 feet to do anything with. It's a long, blank run.

The end of the forecast window on the 12th of September actually shows a bit of size again, with 7 feet of WSW swell, but it's paired with a strong 25 mph cross-shore wind. The energy is strong at 553, but it's going to be a messy, blown-out mess. Honestly, for a beach break setup, that kind of wind and swell combo looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

There's nothing here to get excited about. Monday the 31st of August morning is your only shot, and it's a long way off. Sometimes it's just like that.

Rusty.

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