Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at Fall Bay Reef.

The next couple weeks are mostly a tough slog with a lot of wind and junk, but there’s a couple of mornings that will be worth the drive. The first real hope is a glassy Sunday the 20th, then a proper clean window right at the end of the month.

Right off the bat, the 16th and 17th are a waste. You’ve got chest-high swell at about 5ft from the west on Wednesday with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is moderate (384). But the wind is a stiff cross-off, so it’s not clean. By Thursday the swell jumps to 6ft from WNW, but the period drops to 7 seconds – weak and crumbly. A fresh breeze makes it lumpy. Energy is still moderate (348). Don’t bother.

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are cooked. Strong cross-onshore winds, messy and choppy. Saturday sees 7ft from WSW with moderate to strong energy (547-574), but it’s lumpy and un-rideable for a paddle surfer. If you’re into kiting, that setup might look okay. For surfers? Hard pass.

Then comes the first glimmer. Sunday morning, September 20th is the standout. The swell drops to a clean 3ft from the WSW, 10-second period, and the wind goes glassy – dead calm from the north at just 3 mph. The combined energy is weak (204), but the waves will be clean and rideable. Fall Bay Reef is inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for sets, but it’s your best shot in the first half of the outlook. Water temp is about average for the time of year.

After that, the week dries up. From the 21st through the 26th, nearly every day is tiny or flat. Swell under 3ft, poor conditions. Energy readings drop into double digits – 30, 26, 17. There’s a little pulse on Tuesday the 22nd with a 2ft, 11-second period, but the wind is all over the place and combined energy is only 126. Not worth it.

Finally, the pattern turns. Sunday the 27th of September is the second real standout. Morning and afternoon, you get 3ft from WSW with a solid 11-second period, and the wind is light cross-off and clean. Energy is moderate (189-214). Waves will have some push for their size.

Then Monday the 28th of September is the most interesting call. Swell is still only 3ft, but the period jumps to 13 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell. Combined energy climbs to 286 – moderate but with good power. Best part? Fresh offshore wind from the north at 15-18 mph. That offshore breeze will groom the reef perfectly. The size is small, but the quality could make this the best, cleanest day of the month if you pick the right tide.

From Tuesday the 29th, the wind swings and it gets messy again. The 30th shows a bigger pulse – 8ft from WSW with a short 8-second period and cross-shore wind – that’s expert territory and messy.

So, bottom line: grab Sunday the 20th if you want glass. The best bet for clean shape and quality is the Sunday-Monday stretch on the 27th and 28th. The middle of the month, from the 21st to the 26th, is a wasteland – hardly anything to paddle for.

Patience, mate.
Rusty.

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