Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie. Rusty here, and I've had a proper look at what's coming our way over the next two and a bit weeks. I'm going to be straight with you – it's a testing forecast. We've only got one spot to work with, Fall Bay Reef, and it's a picky, inconsistent little setup that needs everything to line up just right.

Let’s run through it. There's a long dry spell ahead. From now through the weekend and well into next week, it's looking grim. The swell is small and the wind is all over the shop, mostly cross-shore or onshore. Thursday afternoon sees the wind swing to a fresh 16 mph from the West, messing up the 3ft, 10-second WSW swell. Friday and Saturday are a write-off with tiny, weak waves. Sunday and Monday bring barely a ripple, with cross-offshore winds but next to no swell energy. It’s a full-blown flat spell until we get to the following week.

Now, the first half of the second week is still tough. Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th show some swell, but the wind is cross-shore or cross-offshore and pretty strong. It’s not going to be pretty.

Here’s the standout, and it’s the only window that gets me a little excited. Wednesday morning, the 19th of August is the first pulse of something real. A clean, cross-offshore NW wind at 16 mph will groom a solid 8ft swell from the WSW. The combined swell energy is strong. This is big. Over 8ft, so this is expert territory only. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s windswell, not a groundswell, meaning the sets will be a bit messy. But for a reef break that’s inconsistent, this is a serious opportunity. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual to report there.

Thursday morning, the 20th of August is my pick for the best session. It’s a little smaller at 5ft from the WNW, but you’ve got clean, offshore N wind at 12 mph. That's proper clean conditions. The period is short, only 7 seconds, but the combined energy is decent. The direction is close to the optimum SW for the reef. It’s still a bit punchy for beginners over 5ft, but for the intermediate crew, this is the one to aim for.

After that, it fades back into poor conditions. Friday the 21st onward sees the swell drop out again and the wind turns funky.

So, the bottom line: it’s a bleak outlook for a long stretch, but don’t sleep on that Thursday the 20th. If you can slide out of work and you're comfortable on a reef, that's your moment. Stay patient, folks. Forecasts change.

Rusty.

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