Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, folks, it’s Rusty.

Well, I’ve got to level with you: the next sixteen days are looking pretty grim around here. There’s not a single solid recommendation in the whole window, not one day I’d tell you to drop everything and paddle out for. The swell’s just not there, and when there is a hint of size, the wind’s all over the shop. It’s a frustrating run, but that’s the way it goes sometimes.

Looking at the whole period, the only spot with any real exposure is Fall Bay Reef – a tricky reef break that’s inconsistent at the best of times. And true to form, it's barely going to get a decent wave. For the first week and a half, we’re looking at tiny, weak surf. The first few days, from Saturday the 1st through to Tuesday the 4th, there’s almost nothing – ankle-biters around 1 ft with a rubbish short period, and mostly onshore or cross-shore winds chopping things up. The energy reading is pitifully low, mostly in the low double digits (37, 23, 20), and it’s just not worth getting wet for.

There’s a slight bump mid-week, but it’s a cruel tease. Around Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th, the swell kicks up a bit to about 4 ft to 5 ft from the SW, and the energy does climb into the moderate zone (119 to 170). But the period is a short, crumbly 6 to 7 seconds, which means it’s going to be a mushy, wind-blown mess. Wednesday’s got a cross-onshore wind, and Thursday’s offshore but with a howling 19 mph cross-shore breeze that’s going to put a nasty chop on it. That’s not surfable for a paddle; honestly, that Thursday afternoon might be more interesting for the kite crew than us. And with the water temp sitting at 66°, which is a big 5° warmer than usual for this time of year, it’s going to feel like a warm, messy bath.

After that, it just dies off again. From Friday the 7th all the way through to Tuesday the 11th, it’s back to tiny, weak waves and a confusing mix of breezes. The energy levels drop right off, down to single digits at times. It’s a proper flat spell, no two ways about it.

Then, just when you think it’s finally over, there’s another little pulse around Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th. Swell bumps up to around 2 ft to 2 ft from the WSW, with the period stretching back out to a more decent 8-9 seconds. The combined energy also nudges up into the 60s, 70s, and even 88-98. But again, the winds are just not our friend. Wednesday morning is cross-onshore, and Thursday is mostly cross-onshore too. It’s still going to be lumpy and poor, a frustrating tease for those of us who remember what this reef can do on a good day.

The back half of the second week, from Friday the 14th onward, is just a write-off. A strong breeze of 25 mph messes everything up on Friday, and the rest of the weekend is just small and chopped. The swell stays below 2 ft and the period drops off again.

So, realistically, we’ve got a hard 16 days with no real standouts. The most consistent thing about it is the inconsistency. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on that Thursday the 6th window for something a bit bigger, but temper your expectations big time. It’s a dry spell, but this place never stays flat forever. Forecasts can change, so keep checking in, but I wouldn’t be planning any dawn patrols for the next couple of weeks.

Stay patient, stay salty.

Rusty.

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