Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee, let’s talk about Fall Bay Reef.

The forecast is pretty bleak for most of the window. The water’s sitting at 68°, which is 7° warmer than usual for this time of year, and that’s unusual. But the wind just won’t play ball. We’ve got a bit of a swell on Monday morning, 31st August, with some head-high, 7ft sets from the WSW, period around 9 seconds, giving us a solid moderate wave energy of 807. But the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-off from the NW, and the score is low. It’s clean, but the overall conditions are marginal. That afternoon, the swell drops a bit to 6ft, and the wind swings to a 16 mph cross-off from the WNW, still clean, but the surf is poor.

From Tuesday 1st September through to Friday 11th September, there are long gaps where the surf is just poor. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, moderate to fresh, and the swell is small or chopped up. There’s a few moments on Saturday 5th September morning where the wind drops right off to 3 mph from the NW – glassy. The swell is only 3ft from the WSW, energy is weak (105), but it’s clean. A tiny, glassy reef wave for the surfskate or a log. Nothing to write home about though.

The best on offer, and it’s a true standout, comes on Monday 7th September afternoon. We get a 4ft swell from the WSW, period of 5 seconds, and here’s the kicker: the wind turns offshore, 16 mph from the NNW. It’s clean. The wave energy is 159, still on the weaker side, but that offshore wind will groom it. The break is an inconsistent reef, often crowded, but on a clean Monday afternoon with offshore wind and some waist-to-chest-high lines, it could be a sneaky session. It’s for intermediates.

Later in the window, on Monday 14th September, we see a big spike in swell. Morning sees 8ft from the WSW, energy at 984, and by the afternoon it’s 10ft with 1202 energy – strong wave energy. But again, the wind is onshore, moderate cross-onshore from the SW, so it’ll be lumpy and choppy. That size, 8ft to 10ft, is for experts only, and with that wind, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a pass for traditional surfers.

So, the honest truth: there is very little quality surf in the 16-day window. The best bet for a clean, rideable wave is that Monday 7th September afternoon session with the offshore wind. After that, hope for a change in the wind, because the swell is there, but the conditions aren’t. It’s a blank run that’s normal for this area.

Rusty.

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