Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. It’s a pretty flat outlook for Fall Bay Reef across the whole 16-day window. We’ve got a run of weak, short-period swell that just doesn’t have the beans to make this reef work. The first recommendation doesn’t come through for a reason – there’s nothing worth paddling out for until we see some real change. From now through to the end of the period, the wave energy (combined energy of all swells directed here) mostly sits in the low double digits, barely breaking 74 in the first session and then just falling away. That’s weak energy, I’m talking barely a bump on the horizon.

Let’s take Sunday, July 5th: we start with a tiny 3ft swell from WSW, but the period is a short 6 seconds and the combined energy is only 74. That’s not enough to wrap around into this fairly exposed reef. Wind’s cross-off at 9 mph, which would normally be a plus for clean faces, but with no push behind it, it’s a waste of good wind. The afternoon drops off even more – 1ft and 9-second period. The water’s sitting at a very unusual 67°, a full 8° warmer than average. That’s a big anomaly, almost tropical for this area. The rest of the week just repeats the same story: swell heights under 3ft, periods under 10 seconds, and combined energy barely hitting 50 or 60.

Wednesday, July 8th, sees a rare moment of glassy conditions in the morning (1.0ft, 8-second period), but again, no swell. A 1.0ft wave with 12 combined energy is not surf. You’d be bobbing like a cork. Thursday July 9th is similar – 1.0ft, glassy, combined energy of 16. Clean but empty.

There’s a slight lift around Friday, July 10th, with a 2ft swell from the west, 9-second period, and combined energy of 42. It’s still a dribbler. Winds go cross-off and sometimes glassy, so the few ripples that show will be clean, but it won’t break properly. This reef is inconsistent at the best of times, and right now it’s barely wet.

The only noteworthy shift comes in the second week. Tuesday, July 14th, we see a longer-period 11-second wave from WSW, but it’s only 1.0ft. Combined energy is 36. Again, not enough. And on Monday, July 13th, we get a glimpse of some proper groundswell – a 20-second period from the SW, but the height is a paltry 0.3ft. Combined energy of 23. That’s a tease. Long period like that usually means better shape and energy, but when the wave height is that small, it’s just a long, rolling nothing. It won’t break. The following days repeat this pattern: long periods (18-19 seconds) from the same SW direction, but heights stuck at 0.3ft to 1.0ft.

Later on, Saturday, July 18th, we get glassy conditions with a 1.0ft swell from the west, 8-second period, combined energy of 12. That’s still a flat day. And the last day, Monday, July 20th, brings a 0.3ft swell with a 17-second period, combined energy of 16. That’s still just a faint long-period pulse.

Honestly, there’s not a single standout session here. The combined energy never reaches three digits – it’s all weak, marginal stuff. For a reef that needs a decent push to start breaking, this is a total non-event. If you’re desperate to get wet, bring a longboard for the tiny, clean bumps, but don’t expect to catch a wave. With the low consistency and the constant “poor surf conditions” across every record, I’d say wait for the next change. Forecasts can turn around, but this stretch is a big ol’ blank.

Rusty.

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