Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I've been staring at the Fall Bay Reef charts for the next two weeks. I gotta be straight with you – this is a rough stretch. The water is sitting at 66°F with a massive 5°F anomaly, so it's much warmer than what we usually see this time of year, which is a bit of a head-scratcher.

We start with a bit of a pulse on Monday the 7th, but it's more of a tease than a true standout. You've got a 6ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, giving us a strong 1385 combined energy. But the wind is a messy cross-off from the WNW at 12 mph in the morning, turning into a choppy cross-shore later. The wave comment says it's marginal, and honestly, the surf quality is poor. That long period (14 seconds) on a reef break like this *could* mean good shape, but the wind is just not playing ball. It's inconsistent, and potential crowds are likely, so you'll be fighting for any half-decent wave.

The rest of the 16 days is a bleak story. The swell drops off quickly, and the wind keeps shifting. Tuesday the 8th still has a 6ft swell, but the period is a short 9 seconds, and the wind is a solid 16-22 mph cross-off. It's messy. By Wednesday the 9th, we're down to 3ft, and by Thursday the 10th, it's a pathetic 2ft with a 5-second period and a weak 36 combined energy. There's a brief flicker on Friday the 11th with a 5ft swell and a light offshore wind in the afternoon, but the wave comment says it's just "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." The energy is a low 199.

From then on, it's a complete write-off. The swell never gets above 5ft, and the wind is either too strong or onshore, turning the reef into a complete mess. There's a solid 10-day gap from the 12th of September all the way through to the 22nd of September where the wave conditions are "poor" or "very poor." The combined energy drops to pathetic single-digit values. The swell is tiny, the period is short, and the wind is a constant nuisance. The reef is inconsistent anyway, and with this setup, it's just not worth a paddle.

The only pulse of long-period swell is on the 22nd, but it's a 0.3ft swell from the W at 16 seconds – that's a ghost. The combined energy is a measly 8, and it's buried under a strong cross-onshore wind from the SW at 25 mph. It's a total deg.

So, mate, if you're looking for a wave over the next 16 days, you're better off taking the wax off the board. This is a dry spell, and for a spot that's already inconsistent, it's not a surprise. The forecasts can change, but right now, the only thing breaking is your heart.

Rusty.

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