Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this 16-day window for Fall Bay Reef is a tough one to call. We’ve got some decent swell pulses coming through, but the wind gods are just not playing ball for most of it. The overall pattern is messy, with consistent cross-onshore winds ruining what could be a good thing. The combined swell energy is moderate at best, often in the 100-400 range, but those winds are a deal-breaker.

We kick off on Monday, August 31. There’s a 7ft swell from the WSW, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a moderate 807 (moderate wave energy). But the wind is howling out of the NW at 19 mph, a cross-off shore, which is clean for the face but that wind strength is a real battle. The waves are clean, but the quality is marginal. It’s surfable for the keen intermediate, but it’s not a standout.

The rest of the first week is a write-off. From Tuesday, September 1 right through to Saturday, September 5, we’re stuck with brutal cross-onshore winds. Swell sizes drop and then bounce around from 3ft to 6ft, but the wind is a constant 12-25 mph, making everything choppy, lumpy, and messy. The combined energy sits between 137 and 354 (weak to moderate wave energy). It’s not worth paddling out. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

We finally get a break on Sunday, September 6. The swell is tiny, only 2ft from the WSW, energy is a weak 54. But the wind goes glassy in the afternoon. Yes, glassy. A light southerly at 3 mph. The waves will be tiny, but clean. If you’ve got a longboard and zero expectations, that’s your window for a real, peaceful session.

The following week is a long, flat spell. From Monday, September 7, the swell drops to 1ft, and the combined energy plummets. There’s a long period 15-second groundswell on the 7th, but it’s only 1ft, which is pure theory. The wind stays mostly cross-onshore. The combined energy values barely break 100 (weak wave energy). The paddling would be easy, but there’s nothing to ride.

Then, a flicker of hope on Tuesday, September 8. A 6ft WSW swell comes in with a period of 8 seconds, and combined energy hits 616 (moderate wave energy). But again, the wind is cross-onshore at 6-12 mph. It’s mentioned as marginal, with questionable tide. It’s a “maybe” for the dedicated, but not a call I’d make.

The rest of the run from September 9 to 15 is all small, weak surf. The swell is mostly under 3ft, with combined energy under 100 (weak wave energy). The wind is either cross-off or cross-shore, but the swell is just too small to bother with. The only notable thing is the water temperature, which is about average for the season, nothing weird.

The One Standout: If I have to pick the best of a bad bunch, it’s the glassy session on the afternoon of Sunday, September 6. The waves will be tiny, but for a longboard or a quiet paddle, it’s clean. The real size comes later, but the wind ruins it.

The Expert’s Window: The only sizeable swell that’s borderline is the 6ft on Tuesday, September 8, but that cross-onshore wind will make it a lumpy, choppy mess. It’s not a beginner wave, but it’s not clean enough for experts either. Honestly, it’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on that day.

To sum it up: we’ve got a 5-day gap of poor surf at the start, then a tiny glassy window, then a flat spell, then a marginal, windy day. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not unusual. Forecasts can change, but right now, keep your board in the bag.

Rusty.

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