Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’re looking at the next 16 days for Fall Bay Reef, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough watch. This reef is inconsistent at the best of times, and this forecast is a real test of patience. We’re starting with a big fat zero for surf for the first several days, so don't bother paddling out until we get deeper into the period.

The water temp is sitting at 69°F which is a massive 8°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, and you’ll definitely feel it if you get in.

The pattern starts with tiny, weak swell. Saturday the 22nd has a 1ft WSW swell with a 10-second period, but the combined energy is a measly 49 (weak energy) and the conditions are "poor." The wind is a light cross-off, but the swell is just too small. Sunday gets even smaller, and Monday the 24th brings a 22 mph cross-shore wind that’ll chop up the 1.0ft swell. Tuesday and Wednesday are more of the same rubbish – tiny waves and messy winds. There’s a brief moment of hope Wednesday afternoon when the wind goes glassy, but the swell is still only 1.0ft. It’s flat, flat, flat.

Then we get a bit of a pulse. Thursday the 27th morning the swell bumps to 5ft from the SW with a 6-second period, but the energy is only 133 (moderate) and you’ve got 19 mph cross-onshore winds and heavy rain. The afternoon sees the swell hit 5ft, with a bit more energy (321), but it’s still cross-onshore and choppy. Friday the 28th morning is more of the same with 5ft and fresh cross-shore wind. The water is churned up.

Now, here’s the one true standout. Friday afternoon the 28th of August. The stars finally align. We get a 6ft swell from the west with an 8-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 691 (strong). The wind turns offshore from the NNW at 16 mph, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions." This is the only window where it all comes together. It’s a moderate offshore wind, so the reef should be clean. The swell is 6ft, which is getting into the territory where it might be a bit much for beginners, but for intermediates, this is your shot. The short period means it’ll be a bit fat and less powerful than a groundswell, but it’s the best we’ve got.

After that, it’s back to the struggle. Saturday the 29th drops back to 4ft with cross-shore winds, and the rest of the run into the second week is a mix of moderate cross-shore and cross-onshore winds with swell mostly between 3ft and 6ft. The energy stays moderate to strong, but the wind is never right again. The 3rd and 4th of September have some solid 5ft to 6ft SW swell, but it’s all cross-onshore or lumpy cross-shore with fresh winds, making it a mess. The 5th of September has a near gale on it, so forget it. The final day on the 6th of September is clean but the swell is down to 2ft, so it’s a tiny, clean end to the run.

If you’re a kiter, some of those windy, lumpy days with 5ft+ waves might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a barren stretch. The only day to circle is Friday the 28th afternoon. Mark it, hope the forecast holds, and be ready to pounce.

Rusty.

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