Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Fall Bay Reef over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. The water is pumping warm, sitting at 67°F right now, which is a massive 6°F above normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, feels like the tropics have invaded. But that’s about the only thing that’s exciting. The surf forecast is a long, drawn-out bummer for the most part.

We start off with a bit of a dud. Friday the 4th has some swell around 6ft to 7ft, but the wind is howling from the west at 19 mph, making a mess of things. The combined energy is moderate (568 on Friday morning), but the conditions are just poor. Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th drop right off to tiny, weak waves under 3ft, with energy levels falling into the weak range (as low as 54). There’s just nothing to get excited about.

Now, Monday the 7th morning is the one that perks my ears up. We’ve got a solid 6ft swell from the WSW, but here’s the kicker – the period is a very long 13 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 1351. The wind is a clean cross-off from the WNW at 12 mph. This is the only real standout in the whole 16 days. For a reef break, that long period is perfect, giving you those long, lined-up walls. The catch? It’s an inconsistent break on a good day, so don’t expect a wave every minute. The score is marginal, but compared to the rest of the window, this is your best shot. If you’re an intermediate surfer, be there Monday morning. It gets messy again by afternoon with the wind switching onshore.

After that little glimpse, it’s back to the grind. Most days from Tuesday the 8th through to the end of the period show average to poor surf. We see pulses of 7ft+ swell on the 8th, 10th, and 15th, but the wind is either cross or cross-onshore, or just too strong, turning the waves into lumpy chop. The energy levels are moderate (511-768) on those days, but the quality is just not there for a clean paddle. The water temp stays warm, but the conditions are frustrating.

From around the 12th onwards, the swell gets smaller and smaller, dropping to ankle-snappers. The wind goes offshore on the 12th and 16th-17th, which is usually a major positive, but there’s simply no swell to work with – energy levels are weak (35-97). It’s a classic case of clean but flat.

So, to wrap it up: the only day that’s worth a serious look is Monday, September 7th, in the morning. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off for quality surfing. This is one of those blank runs that’s more normal for the area when the wind and swell don’t line up. Keep an eye on it, but for now, I’d say sharpen your kite skills if you’ve got em, because the wind is going to be strong and the waves are going to be messy.

Rusty.

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