Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, the surf outlook for Fall Bay Reef over the next 16 days is a bit of a tale. We've got a long stretch of pretty quiet conditions to start, but it does get interesting right at the very end for those who know what they're doing.

Right now, for the first couple of weeks, it's a tough go. We kick off on Saturday the 11th with tiny swell, barely 1 ft, and while the water is a wild 4° above average at 67°, the waves just aren't there. It's flat. That carries through most of the next two weeks. We've got periods of clean, glassy conditions like Friday the 17th morning, but the swell is just a whisper at 0.3 ft. There's a lot of cross-shore wind and chop, with combined swell energy mostly staying in the weak range (under 100). For the most part, any recommendation is a big "no" — the surf just isn't happening.

Then, around the 22nd and 23rd of July, things start to build in size but stay messy. The wind is cross-shore and strong, and the swell sits around 4 ft with moderate energy levels (peaking at 186) but the conditions are poor with a cross-chop. It's not until Tuesday the 21st afternoon that we see a bit of a pulse – a 4 ft swell from a variable direction with clean cross-offshore wind and energy hitting 151. That's a little better, but still not a standout.

Now, the real highlight is a two-window event. On Friday the 24th afternoon, we get a modest 5 ft swell from the SW with a 6-second period, but the wind is straight offshore from the North, making it clean. The combined energy jumps to 185. The catch? The wave quality is only rated as very ordinary. It's surfable but not firing.

But the main event is Saturday the 25th morning. The swell jumps to 8 ft from the West, with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is massive at 1031 – that's strong to very strong energy for this spot. However, the wind is cross-shore from the West at 16 mph, which will put a chop on it. This is expert-only territory. If you've got the skills and a big board, you might find some juice, but the conditions are marginal. This is a reef break, and with 8 ft, it's gonna be heavy and could close out quickly without a proper channel.

Overall? The first two weeks are a write-off. There's nothing to get excited about. The last few days have a couple of pulses that are worth a look for experienced surfers. The 24th afternoon for cleaner but smaller waves, and the 25th morning for size and power, but with a caveat for the cross-wind and size. Crowds are possible here, as it's "often" busy, so get in early or late.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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