Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a hard look at the Fall Bay Reef forecast. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one.

First up, we have a single break on the cards: Fall Bay Reef. That's it for the whole 16-day window. The water there is sitting at a very unusual 68° – that's a whopping 7° warmer than normal for this time of year, which is a real head-scratcher.

The overall pattern is grim. The entire forecast period is littered with days of poor surf conditions, with the score out of ten a flat zero for the first couple of weeks. We’re looking at a long stretch of nothing.

Let's run through it. The first entries are for Wednesday the 12th of August – a morning of clear skies but a cross-shore wind from the ESE at 12 mph turning a tiny 2ft WSW swell into a messy, choppy mess. The energy is weak (81). The afternoon isn't any better, with a cross-onshore breeze and similar poor surf.

Thursday the 13th morning offers a slight glimmer, but it's not a recommendation. We get a clean look with a light WNW breeze at 6 mph and a 3ft WSW swell. The energy picks up to moderate (184), and the conditions are described as "surfable waves but very ordinary". It's not good, just a bit less bad. The wind turns ugly again by the afternoon.

From Friday the 14th all the way through to Monday the 24th of August, the story is the same: under 3ft of swell, mostly weak energy, and a string of "poor surf conditions" scores. There's a few moments of clean offshore wind, like Saturday the 15th morning with a strong NNW wind, but the swell is a pathetic 1ft. It's a flat, clean day, not a surf day.

The most notable event in the whole period is Tuesday the 18th of August. The morning gets a bit of height with a 5ft WSW swell, but it's accompanied by a strong cross-onshore wind from the WSW at 22 mph, making it lumpy and terrible. The afternoon sees the swell drop to 5ft from the W, with a cleaner cross-offshore wind, and the energy jumps to 355 (strong). But even that is still rated as "poor surf conditions" with a score of zero. With that kind of wind and a reef setup, it's a total write-off. Given the onshore winds and the messy nature, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After that, it's back to the doldrums. The entire forecast is a blank run. There are no standouts, no hidden gems, nothing to get excited about. For this area, a blank run like this is a more normal occurrence. Forecasts can change, but right now, I wouldn't even bother waxing the board for the next two weeks.

Rusty.

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