Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Fall Bay Reef are looking pretty grim for paddle surfing. We’ve got a lot of wind and messy conditions to wade through before we see anything worth getting excited about. This is a reef break that’s inconsistent and often crowded, so when the stars do align, you need to be ready. The water temp is sitting at 68°, which is a massive 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a real anomaly, so you won’t need the thickest wetsuit.

The action starts this Friday afternoon, August 28th, with a small 5ft SW swell rolling in, but a 25 km/h cross-on SW wind is making a choppy mess. The combined wave energy is weak at 133, and the wave comment is plain: poor surf conditions. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday the 29th is no better. Morning brings an onshore SSE breeze at 30 km/h and a 4ft SW swell. The afternoon cleans up a bit with a cross-off WNW breeze at 20 km/h, and the energy picks up to 138, but the swell is still weak and short-period at 7 seconds. The wave comment still says poor.

Sunday the 30th has swell building to 4ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon from the WSW, but we’re looking at onshore winds at 30-35 km/h. Afternoon energy hits 635 (moderate), but the wind is onshore and it’s described as poor.

Monday the 31st finally shows a glimmer. Morning sees a 7ft WSW swell with a cross-off WNW breeze at 25 km/h, giving us clean conditions and moderate energy at 673. The wave comment improves to "marginal" – not great, but it’s the best so far. Afternoon holds similar with a 6ft swell and 20 km/h cross-off wind, energy at 477. Not a standout, but a possible sneaky session if you’re desperate.

From Tuesday September 1st through Thursday September 3rd, the wind swings back and forth, mostly cross or cross-on, with choppy, lumpy conditions. Swell hovers around 3ft to 6ft, but the quality is poor.

Friday September 4th brings another decent window. A 7ft WSW swell with a fresh cross-off WNW breeze at 30 km/h. Clean faces, moderate energy at 480. Still, the wave comment is poor. This is a pattern of "almost but not quite."

Now, here’s the real standout: Tuesday September 8th. Swell jacks up to a massive 16ft from the WSW, with a period of 11 seconds – that’s groundswell with serious energy – the combined energy is a powerful 5628. Wind is a cross-off WNW at 35 km/h, so the faces are clean. This is expert-only territory though – over 8ft, it’s big, and this reef can get nasty. If you’ve got the skills and the nerve, this is the best on offer. Wednesday the 9th drops back to 4ft and weaker energy.

After that, from Thursday September 10th onward, the swell dies off, wind turns onshore or strong from the south, and conditions are poor through to Saturday September 12th. There’s a real gap here – nothing worth chasing for the rest of the second week.

Overall, the only real standout is Tuesday September 8th, but it’s for experts only. The rest of the window is filled with poor surf conditions, cross-onshore winds, and weak swells. Hold tight, mate.

- Rusty

Read more