Fall Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mates, Rusty here. Let’s cut to the chase. This 16-day run is a real bummer for surfers. We’re looking at a long, dry stretch with barely a ripple worth paddling for. It’s a proper blank run. From now through the 25th of July, the swell is puny and weak, with the combined energy mostly stuck in the double digits – that’s flat spell territory. It’s only really on the 26th of July that we see a bit of a pulse, but even then, the conditions are messy.

Let’s start with the first recommendation, which is a bit of a stretch. The only spot we’ve got is Fall Bay Reef. This is a reef break, and it’s inconsistent, which is a big caveat right now. For the first week, from the 11th of July through to the 19th, it’s a painful story. Swell heights are mostly below 2 ft, and the combined energy is a paltry 19 on the 11th. The water temperature is 67°F, which is a massive 8° warmer than normal – that’s a very unusual anomaly for the time of year, almost like a warm bath. Don’t expect any decent waves; the wind is glassy on the 11th, but there’s just no swell to work with.

The whole of the following week, from the 12th to the 25th, is a washout. There are gaps of days with nothing. On the 12th, we see a 0.3 ft swell with a 16-second period – that’s a very long period, but it’s so tiny it only reaches 25 combined energy. While the wind is offshore from the east at 12 mph, the wave height is just not there. The 13th sees a 4 ft swell from the east, but it’s a short period of 5 seconds and the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph, making it lumpy. This is not for paddling. The 19th of July afternoon shows a slight improvement with a 3 ft swell from the west (combined energy 85) and a clean cross-offshore wind, but it’s still tiny and the break is inconsistent.

The only real standout that catches my eye is the 26th of July. On that Sunday morning, we get a 5 ft swell from the west, with a combined energy of 250 – that’s moderate wave energy finally. The period is 7 seconds, so it’s a short-period wind swell, but at 5 ft, it’s a bit too big for beginners but still manageable for most. The problem is the wind: it’s a light cross-onshore from the ESE at 3 mph, with small ripples. It’s not clean, but it’s the best we’ve seen in two weeks. The afternoon bumps up to 5 ft, but the wind picks up to 16 mph from the SE, making it choppy and cross-onshore. For a reef break, that’s rough. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, given the gusty and messy conditions.

So, overall, the next 16 days are a struggle. The long-range standouts on the 26th are promising but less certain, and the inconsistent nature of Fall Bay Reef means you’d have to be lucky. It tends not to stay this poor for long, but this blank run is a bit more normal for this area in this period. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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