Cave Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the forecast for Cave Rock. It’s a reef setup, exposed to the swell, and it’s a consistent spot that handles a good south-west groundswell best. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild there.

The surge of energy arrives early on, but it’s a bit of a frustrating start. Right from Sunday the 19th, we’ve got a solid 6ft south-south-east swell at 12 seconds, which is decent, but the wind is messy, cross-shore, and the combined energy is moderate (950). It’s there, but the quality is marginal. Not the best for a Sunday session.

Monday the 20th is similar. The swell picks up a touch to 6ft from the south-east, period still 12 seconds, but the wind is a letdown. It’s cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the energy climbs to 1178. It’s just not coming together cleanly. Move on.

Tuesday the 21st we see a drop in size to 5ft, but the wind goes cross-offshore in the morning. The swell is a bit weaker, combined energy at 542, but *clean*. That’s a big positive. If you’re quick, the morning window might be the best of this early period.

Wednesday the 22nd is a write-off. Swell drops to 4ft, wind is up, and the energy is weak (504). The afternoon is poor. By Thursday the 23rd, we get a fresh burst of wind from the south-south-west, blowing 35-40 km/h, and the swell jumps to 5ft-5ft, but it’s just messy. The period is short, 6-7 seconds, which is a junk swell. The energy is moderate (325-433), but the wind is ruining any chance of a wave. Friday the 24th is flat with a tiny 2ft swell, not worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Saturday the 25th is a standout. The wind goes glassy in the morning – that’s a major positive. We’ve got a 3ft swell from the south-south-west, but the period is a very long 15 seconds. That’s a groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (504), but with glassy conditions, Cave Rock will be offering clean, lined-up waves. The direction is off the optimum south-west, but the clean conditions make it the best on offer in the first week. Get there early.

The rest of the week is a bit of a flat spot. Sunday the 26th through Monday the 27th are small and windy, with swells around 2ft-3ft and poor energy. Not worth the drive.

Then we get a pulse on Wednesday the 29th. The swell jumps to 6ft from the south, period 13 seconds, combined energy jumps to 1233 (strong). The wind is light cross-onshore in the morning, but the size is significant. At 6ft, it’s getting a bit serious for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is a solid wave. The direction is south, which is close to the optimum. This is the second standout of the window.

The end of the forecast is a bit of a mix. The 31st of July sees a massive spike in energy – 3647! That’s very strong. The swell is 6ft-7ft from the south, period at 16 seconds, which is a very long, powerful groundswell. The problem is the wind – it’s a strong cross-shore breeze, 30-45 km/h, ruining the shape. The wave will be there, but it will be a battle. Only for the experts or the kite surfers at that point.

Finally, on Monday the 3rd of August, we get a late window of hope. The wind is glassy again, the swell is 6ft from the south, period 18 seconds – that’s a deep, long-period groundswell. The combined energy is 2240, strong. The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the best-looking stand-alone day in the entire 16-day range. The only caveat is it’s far out, so the details could shift, but as it stands, it’s a target.

So, to sum it up: the best days are Saturday the 25th for a clean, glassy session on a smaller swell, and Wednesday the 29th for a bigger, more powerful south swell. The real standout, the one to circle on the calendar, is Monday the 3rd of August – if the wind holds, that will be the day Cave Rock shows its true potential.

Rusty.

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