Cave Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get stuck into this one.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a pretty grim run for Cave Rock. The whole first week is mostly a write-off with messy, blown-out conditions. There's a bit of a tease in the middle of the second week, but for the most part, you’ll be waiting a long time for anything worthwhile. There’s a solid week of poor conditions here before we get a glimpse of something better.

Friday 11th to Monday 14th – Just forget it. Strong winds, mainly cross-onshore, with wave energy sitting weak to moderate (combined energy of 327 down to 50). The swell is there on Friday, around 3.6ft from the east, but with a 30 km/h cross-on wind, it's just a lumpy mess. The weekend sees the size drop off to under 3.3ft and the wind doesn't let up. By Monday, a near-gale is blowing, and the swell is virtually nothing at 1ft.

Tuesday 15th – A bit more size shows up, with 6.6ft of east swell (moderate-to-strong energy at 744), but the wind is still cross-onshore, making it poor. By the afternoon, the wind drops right off to a light breeze, and the size holds at 6.2ft. It's still labelled marginal, but that’s the first window that isn't a total loss. It’s still cross-on though, so not what I’d call a standout.

Wednesday 16th morning – Here’s a glimmer. We get 5.2ft of easterly swell with light *onshore* wind (moderate-to-strong energy at 506). It’s clean for what it is, but the rating is still marginal. The afternoon gets messy again with strong cross-onshore winds.

Thursday 17th and Friday 18th – A mixed bag. The 18th afternoon is actually the first time we see anything good: a cross-offshore wind from the north (very light) and 3.6ft of short-period SSE swell (combined energy 335). The report says “expect good surf conditions” here. This is the first real clean window, but the swell period is only 8 seconds, so it'll be a bit weak and crumbly. For a Friday arvo surf, it’s your best bet so far.

Saturday 19th & Sunday 20th – Saturday is a write-off with strong cross-shore winds. Sunday 20th is interesting but weird. We get a massive jump in energy – 1097 in the morning and 1344 in the afternoon – from a long-period southerly groundswell (21 and 20 seconds). The morning has light cross-shore winds, so it’ll be clean, but that’s a very long period. For a reef like Cave Rock, that long interval could make it wall up and break a bit too straight, making it tricky. It’s marginal, but it’s the biggest, cleanest pulse in the whole forecast. The morning session on Sunday 20th is the standout of this entire outlook, but it’s over a week away, so keep your fingers crossed.

Monday 21st onwards – After that brief spike, it’s back to poor conditions. The winds pick up again, and by Tuesday 22nd & Wednesday 23rd, we’re looking at near-gale force winds and a solid 7.9ft of messy S swell that’ll be blown out. That’s heavy duty and not for beginners – purely for experts if anyone is silly enough to go out in those winds. The last few days (24th to 26th) settle down a bit in wind but the swell quality stays poor, with the 26th seeing a moderate cross-shore breeze, so still not clean.

Best on offer: The Sunday 20th morning session. That’s your one true standout. The 4.3ft south swell (20-21 second period) with light cross-shore wind and huge energy (1,097) is the cleanest, most powerful window we get. It’s a long way out, so treat it with caution, but if it lines up, it’ll be the best the rock sees.

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