Cave Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough start. The first proper chance to get wet doesn’t show up until Tuesday the 22nd, and even then, it’s pretty average. We’re looking at a solid week of mostly poor conditions with wind and chop mucking things up.

The one spot on the radar is Cave Rock (a reef break), and honestly, it’s not looking great for most of the period. The water is sitting at a nice 73°F, feeling a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Let’s run through it. Tuesday the 22nd morning has some 4ft swell from the SE with a 12-second period, but the NE wind is already up. It’s cross-shore and the energy is moderate at best (645). By the afternoon, the wind picks up and it gets messy. Wednesday and Thursday are the same story – onshore winds and chop, with swell dropping to 3ft. The scores are in the toilet.

Friday the 24th is a warning flag. We get a jump in size – 8ft from the S – but it’s a short-period windswell (9 seconds) and the wind is howling cross-onshore at 22 mph. That’s a lumpy, blown-out mess. That combined energy is a whopping 1287, but it’s all for nothing with that wind. Too big for beginners and ugly for everyone else. Honestly, with that setup, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

We get a slight reprieve on Saturday the 25th morning. 5ft from the SSE, 9-second period, with a light NE cross-shore at 6 mph. It’s still only marginal, but the conditions are cleaner. That’s your best option for the whole first week, but don’t expect magic.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a write-off. Sunday the 26th drops to 2ft, and the wind is howling. There’s a long stretch from the 26th all the way to the morning of Tuesday the 29th where the surf is either tiny or blown to pieces.

Now, for a glimmer of hope way out there. On Tuesday the 29th morning, a bigger swell pushes in – 8ft from the S with a 9-second period. The wind is a light ENE cross-shore at 6 mph, and the energy is strong (1285). The wave comment says it’s marginal, but this is the only time the stars almost align. However, that swell is over 8ft, so it’s expert-only territory at a reef. If you’re not a charger, stay well clear.

After that, it’s back to small, wind-affected conditions through the end of July and into the first few days of August. The morning of Tuesday the 4th of August shows some light WSW wind cross-off with 4ft from the E, but the consistency is lacking and it’s a late-season call.

Bottom line: this 16-day window is poor overall. Don’t get your hopes up. If you can’t wait, the Saturday the 25th morning is the only one worth a look for a clean-ish, average wave. The bigger stuff is for experts only and comes with wind issues.

Stay patient, the forecasts can change.

- Rusty

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