Cave Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it. The next couple of weeks are a mixed bag. We’ve got a decent stretch of junky, blown-out conditions to start, but there’s a serious pulse of energy coming through around the 5th and 6th of September. That’s where the real action is. The water temp at Cave Rock is sitting at 70°, which is about average for this time of year—nothing weird there.

Right now, it’s all about waiting. The 26th has a bit of swell, 7ft from the south with a long 18-second period, but the wind is cross-on and it’s choppy. Not worth paddling out for. The next few days are worse—strong cross-shore winds, messy conditions, and the surf is dropping off. We’re looking at a real dead stretch from the 27th through the 30th. Swell fades to nothing and the wind stays on it. Don’t even bother, just check the tide charts.

The 31st and the 1st of September are still quiet. Small, junky waves, light winds but not enough push. It’s a waiting game. The 2nd and 3rd of September aren’t any better—some longer-period swell showing up but the wind is all over it, making it a mess. You’re not missing anything.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The 4th of September starts to show some life, with 8ft from the south, but the wind is fresh and cross, so it’s still marginal. By the 5th of September, we’ve got a proper swell event. Saturday morning is looking huge—21ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. That’s a lot of water moving, and the energy reading is massive at 24309. But honestly, this is too big for Cave Rock. It’s an exposed reef, and at this size, it’s a washing machine. Unless you’re an absolute expert looking for a beating, it’s not the one. By the afternoon it backs down to 18ft but it’s still too big and cross-on. The 6th of September is similar—still oversized, though Sunday morning has that 18ft with a bit of a cleaner wind window. Still, this is a big-wave spot, and I’d only be saying it’s for the brave.

By the 7th, it’s coming down—8ft from the SSE—but the wind is on it again. Not great. After that, it fades out. The 8th has a glimmer of hope, but it’s mostly flat through the end of the period.

So, what’s the standout? It’s got to be the early morning of the 5th of September. The swell direction matches the optimum, but it’s just too big. If you’re a gun, that’s your window. Otherwise, you’re waiting for the 7th when it starts to become manageable, but it’s not clean. Honestly, the whole 16-day window is a write-off for good, clean surf at Cave Rock unless you’re ready for a serious tow-in session. Keep an eye on the forecasts—things change.

For what it’s worth, this break is consistent but you need the right conditions. This window ain’t it. I’d be doing other things for the next week and a half.

Rusty.

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