Cave Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up at Cave Rock.

This forecast is a bit of a slow burner, but there are a couple of standout windows if you’re patient. The first few days are marginal at best, but things really start to look interesting by the end of the first week into the second. We’ve got a mix of small, clean conditions early on and some serious size later, but the wind is going to be the main player to watch.

Starting off on Wednesday the 15th, it’s a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a 6ft east swell hitting, but with a 9 mph south wind blowing cross-onshore, it’s just choppy and messy. The water temp is sitting right on 71°F, which is dead average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Thursday the 16th is where you want to start paying attention. The morning is looking prime with a 5ft east swell, but the real story is the wind: a light 3 mph northeast breeze turning it glassy. It’s clean, it’s tidy, and the wave energy is moderate (552). This is a solid early session if you can get out there.

Friday the 17th is a smaller day, but the afternoon cleans up nicely with a 4ft east swell and glassy conditions again. It’s not big, but it’ll be fun and clean on the longboard or a fish.

Saturday the 18th holds some small 3ft swell with clean cross-offshore winds in the morning. It’s a little weak, but the conditions are right. Sunday the 19th morning is glassy again with a 3ft south swell, but the afternoon turns nasty with a 19 mph south-southwest wind blowing cross-onshore and lumping it up. Get out early or skip the arvo.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are a write-off with strong cross-shore winds and poor surf. The swell is small and messy. Just don’t bother.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Wednesday the 22nd brings a proper long-period groundswell from the south, 17 seconds, which is very long. The swell is 5ft, but the energy jumps right up to 1396 (strong wave energy). The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy, but that long period will make for some powerful lines on the reef. This is a spot that likes a long period swell, so it has potential. Thursday the 23rd is the big one. We’re looking at a 13ft south swell! That’s a serious size, and with a period of 11 seconds, it’s going to be heavy. The energy reading is massive at 3534. This is for experts only – way too big for beginners. The wind is light cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit textured, but the power is undeniable. Friday the 24th is still solid with a 6ft south swell, but the wind is still cross-onshore and the energy is dropping.

After that, from the 25th onwards, the surf drops off and the winds turn cross-shore or messy again. There’s a tiny window on the 25th afternoon with a 3ft, 21-second groundswell, which is a freakishly long period, but it’s small and cross-shore. The rest of the run into the end of the month is mostly poor with small, wind-affected waves.

The best bet: Without a doubt, the standout window is Thursday morning the 16th, with that glassy, clean 5ft east swell. It’s not huge, but it’s the cleanest surf of the whole run. For the big-wave crew, Thursday the 23rd is the one to circle, but only if you’re an expert and can handle a heavy 13ft south swell with a bit of cross-onshore texture.

Rusty.

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