Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a seat. It’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Tubes, trying to make sense of this next stretch. The water’s sitting pretty close to normal for this time of year, so nothing wild there, but the surf is gonna come in waves, pun intended.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start this Friday the 11th. There’s some swell around, 6ft from the southwest with a nice 13-second pulse. The energy’s moderate at 1204, and it’s glassy early with a light cross-off shore. That’s the pick of the first day, but the afternoon turns onshore and choppy, which kills it.

Saturday the 12th starts clean, with the swell dropping to 3ft out of the southwest. The energy’s still moderate (955), but it’s glassy as can be. It’s a bit small, but if you’re desperate, those early waves will be clean. The afternoon gets messy with a cross-shore chop and the swell jumps back up to 6ft, but the quality just isn’t there.

Now, brace yourselves. From Sunday the 13th through Monday the 14th, it’s pretty grim. The wind swings onshore and fresh, with the swell holding around 6-7ft. It’s lumpy and blown out, a proper write-off.

We get a brief reprieve on Tuesday the 15th. The swell backs off to 5ft, but the winds turn light and cross-off, keeping things clean. Energy is weak though, around 495-506. It’s surfable, but not gonna get the heart racing.

Here’s where things get interesting. Wednesday the 16th, the swell jumps back up to 10ft. That’s a big one. The period is only 10 seconds, so it’s got some grunt, and the energy is strong at 2910. The wind is howling offshore at 30 km/h, so it’ll be blowing out the faces. This is for experienced surfers only, definitely too much for the learners. The morning is going to be the only time to look at it, as the wind settles in the afternoon.

Thursday the 17th looks like a proper standout. The swell settles to 6ft from the southwest, with a solid 13-second period. The energy is strong at 1538, and the winds are light, clean, and cross-off. Both the morning and afternoon sessions are looking very, very good.

Friday the 18th is another scratch. The wind goes back onshore and choppy, making a mess of the 7ft swell.

Hold on, because Saturday the 19th is the one to circle. The morning is pure glass. There’s a 6ft southwest swell and it’s dead calm. That’s as clean as it gets. The afternoon holds up too, with the swell easing to 4ft and a long 17-second period, but now the wind is well offshore. That long period might make it a bit walled at a beach break, but at a reef and point set-up like this, it’s going to be firing. This is the best of the best.

Sunday the 20th is for the big dogs. The swell explodes to 10ft from the SSW with strong energy (3971) and moderate offshore winds. The call is "excellent conditions for experienced surfers," and that’s exactly who this is for. It’s big, powerful, and heavy. If you’re not confident, stay on the sand. The afternoon drops to 8ft, still sizeable and clean.

Monday the 21st gets messy with onshore winds and a 10ft swell. Back to the couch.

Tuesday the 22nd is a full-blown no-go. The wind goes absolutely nuts, hitting near gale force at 55 km/h. The swell is still around 5ft, but you won’t be able to paddle out. Forget it.

The final days calm down a bit. Wednesday the 23rd brings moderate offshore winds and a clean 6ft swell, a decent option if the winds aren’t too gnarly. Thursday the 24th looks better with lighter winds and a 6ft southwest swell, clean and offshore.

The last standout is Saturday the 26th. The wind is completely calm, and the swell is a clean 5ft from the SSW. It’s a good, clean way to end the run.

So, if you only get a couple of sessions in, make them Saturday the 19th and Thursday the 17th. The Sunday the 20th is for the experienced crew. That’s the story. This is Rusty, signing off.

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