Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the table for Tubes over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow cooker, not a microwave, so don’t expect much action right away, but by the time we hit the second weekend, this place looks like it could turn into a genuine classic.

We kick off the outlook on Saturday the 15th, but honestly, it’s a write-off. Swell is a weak 3.6 ft from the SW with a period that’s decent at 14 seconds, but the wind is all wrong—cross-off to cross—and the wave energy is only moderate at best (522 to 630). The water temp is an insane 52.0° with a massive anomaly of -14.0°, so it’s far colder than usual for this time of year. Bring a thick hooded suit if you’re even thinking about it. Nobody should be paddling out.

Sunday the 16th gets a little better. We get a slight clean-up with a 4.6 ft SW swell, and the wind goes cross-offshore in the morning and fully offshore in the afternoon. The energy is still moderate (715-718), but the waves are okay. It’s a warm-up day, not a standout.

Now, Monday the 17th is where things start getting interesting. The morning sees a 7.9 ft SW swell with a 14-second period and light offshore wind. The wave energy jumps to strong (2094), and the surf is clean and powerful. This is expert territory because it’s over 8 ft by the afternoon, but for the experienced crew, this is excellent. The morning is the pick.

Tuesday the 18th holds onto solid SW swell, 6.6 ft to 7.5 ft, with cross-offshore winds and strong energy (1367 to 1834). It’s very good, but the wind angle is not as clean as Monday, so it’s a solid second-tier day.

Then we hit a real highlight on Wednesday the 19th morning. Glassy conditions, zero wind, and an 8.2 ft SW swell with a 12-second period. The energy is very strong (2065). This is excellent for experienced surfers—clean, glassy, and powerful. The wind stays offshore in the afternoon too. That morning session is the standout of the first week.

Thursday the 20th stays good in the morning with an 8.2 ft SW swell and light cross-offshore wind (1914 energy), but the afternoon gets messy as the wind swings cross-shore and the swell bumps to 9.8 ft with cross-chop. Not ideal.

Friday the 21st is another gem: glassy again in the morning, 6.6 ft SW swell with a 12-second period, and moderate energy (1112). Clean and surfable for a wider range of abilities.

Now, the story really shifts the following week. Saturday the 22nd starts pumping. Morning sees a 9.8 ft SW swell with a 10-second period—short period, so it’s going to be a bit walled up and heavy—but it’s clean and strong (2530 energy). Then the afternoon is absolutely massive: 19.7 ft SW swell, 13-second period, strong offshore wind, and ridiculous energy (11464). That is for expert chargers only, and it’s exceptional. Keep the date.

Sunday the 23rd might be the true standout of the whole outlook. Swell holds at 18.0 ft to 19.7 ft, period stretches to 15 and 16 seconds—that’s very long period, proper groundswell. Tubes is a reef and point, and that’s exactly where you want this kind of swell, because it’ll wrap in and bend beautifully rather than just close out. Wind is fresh offshore, and the energy numbers are absolutely massive (17895 to 16295). The afternoon is borderline perfection for experts.

Monday the 24th sees the wind switch to cross-onshore and the swell is still huge at 11.5 ft, but the quality drops hard. Choppy, lumpy, poor conditions by the afternoon. Not recommended.

The rest of the second week gets more mixed. Tuesday the 25th has an 8.2 ft S swell with long period (16 seconds) but cross-onshore wind, so it’s marginal. Wednesday the 26th improves with a 7.2 ft SW swell and strong offshore wind, period goes up to 17 seconds—very long period. That’s a reef/point treat, with excellent conditions for experienced surfers. Thursday the 27th is decent, Friday the 28th goes glassy with a 6.2 ft SW swell (1386 energy), and Saturday the 29th is clean with offshore wind and solid 5.6 ft to 5.9 ft. Good fun for the weekend warriors.

But then Sunday the 30th gets hammered by wind—30 to 40 km/h from the WSW—and even though it’s offshore, the strength makes paddling out a battle. The swell is only 5.6 ft but the conditions are poor. Skip it.

The standouts. The absolute best windows are Wednesday the 19th morning for a glassy, powerful session, and the stretch from Saturday

Read more