Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, we’ve got serious size on the way, but not all of it is going to be user-friendly. This is a run that’s going to sort the men from the boys, especially for the first few days. The water’s running at a very unusual 54°F at Tubes (Big Island), which is far colder than usual for this time of year—so you’ll want the thickest wetsuit you own and maybe a hood.

The opening show is Wednesday the 19th. We’re looking at a solid 10ft SW groundswell with a 13-second period and light offshore winds. That’s a big, clean wave, but it’s pushing the limits for anyone who isn’t an experienced surfer. The energy is strong (2536), and Tubes will be handling it, but this is not a paddle-out for the faint-hearted. The afternoon backs off slightly to 8ft, still clean with a moderate offshore breeze (2148). It’s a heavy start.

Thursday the 20th is a standout. Overnight the swell kicks up to 13ft with a 14-second period, and the energy is almost double (5389). We’re talking a powerful, thick groundswell. Morning winds are a gentle offshore, so it’s going to be big and clean. The afternoon drops to 12ft, still SW, with a light cross-offshore breeze (4596). This is the best of the first week—big, powerful, and lined up perfectly for this reef and point. You need your wits about you.

Friday the 21st is a write-off. The wind swings onshore from the east and chop takes over. The swell is still there at 8ft, but the quality is gone, and it only gets worse by the afternoon. A day to stay home and sharpen your fins. Saturday the 22nd is tricky—morning has a strong cross-offshore wind at 25 mph, which makes it a windy, messy affair despite the clean look. The afternoon drops the period to a short 8-second windswell, which won’t hold up well at this spot.

Sunday the 23rd is back on. We get a clean 12ft SW swell with a gentle offshore in the morning (3471) and light cross-offshore winds in the afternoon (4488). It’s another serious day of surf, but it’s clean and powerful. Monday the 24th is more manageable, with 8ft in the morning, clean and light offshore (2865). The afternoon drops right off to 4ft but with a very long 16-second period (1900)—classic groundswell, maybe a bit straight for the beach, but at a reef and point like this, it’ll be beautiful.

Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th fade a bit. The onshores return and the surf gets lumpy. The swell drops, and it’s a bit of a lull before the next pulse. Thursday the 27th is small, around 4ft, but still clean with an offshore wind in the morning (878). Not much on offer.

We have a dry spell from the 28th through the 31st. The surf quality is generally poor—onshore winds, chop, and lumpy conditions. The swell is inconsistent with the wind, and you’ll be fighting it. Take a break.

Then, looking ahead to the start of next week, there’s a promising run on Tuesday the 1st of September. It’s not huge, 7ft, but it’s glassy in the morning with a 14-second period (1940). That’s a clean, fun wave and a good one to get your groove back. Wednesday the 2nd stays clean and steady with 7ft and light cross-offshore winds (1299) all day.

But the big standout, the one to circle in red, is Thursday the 3rd of September. The swell is forecast to jump to 18ft with a 12-second period, and the energy readings are off the charts (9816). It’s an expert-only day, period. The morning is offshore and clean, and the afternoon is exceptional (10613). This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the entire window, and it’s going to be a spectacle. Set your alarms for that one, but only if you’ve got the skills and the board to handle it. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not set in stone.

Rusty

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