Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what Tubes has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

First things first, the water is sitting at a chilly 58°, which is a whopping 8° colder than it should be for this time of year. That’s really unusual, so you’ll want a good, thick wetsuit if you’re heading out.

The outlook starts with a bit of a dud. Wednesday the 26th is a write-off with 10ft swell from the SSW and a strong cross-onshore wind making it a total mess. That swell energy is massive at 5669, but it’s ugly. We then have a couple of days of small, marginal surf through Thursday and Friday, but nothing worth writing home about.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Saturday morning the 29th. We’ve got a 3ft SW swell pulsing in with a clean, gentle offshore wind from the southwest. The energy is low at 478, but it’ll be tidy. By Sunday the 30th, the swell jumps to 12ft from the WSW, but the period drops to a short 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit crumbly and bumpy. The wind is howling at 25 mph, so it’s a day for the experts only, if anyone at all.

Now, the standout window is a few days away. Monday the 31st of August is looking like a beauty. The swell drops to a manageable 5ft from the WSW, but the wind goes dead calm – glassy conditions. That’s the kind of clean you dream about. The energy is moderate at 856. Tuesday the 1st of September is also promising, with a 12ft, 14-second groundswell from the SW in the afternoon. That’s a long-period groundswell, so it’ll have plenty of power and shape, but it’s going to be big and heavy, definitely for experienced surfers only. The energy reading is a massive 10081, so it’s proper strong.

The first week of September has some real potential. Wednesday the 2nd brings a solid 12ft SW swell with a clean offshore wind, and the energy is a whopping 3550. The afternoon session looks even better with a 10ft SW swell and clean offshore breezes, offering excellent conditions for the experienced crew.

Things then go a bit sideways from Thursday the 3rd through to Saturday the 5th. A massive, wind-affected swell from the SE comes in with near-gale force winds and heavy rain. This is a total mess, with 16ft to 20ft of lumpy, choppy junk. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After that, we get a small clean-up. Sunday the 6th sees a 6ft, long-period 19-second SSW groundswell with a clean cross-offshore wind. The energy is strong at 2573, but that super long period will make it break very cleanly at Tubes, which is a point and reef break. It’ll be a real test of patience.

The second week, from the 7th onwards, is a bit of a mixed bag. There’s some small, weak surf, and then the energy picks up again towards the end of the period. Thursday the 10th of September looks promising with a 10ft SW swell and a clean offshore wind in the morning, building to a 13ft, 15-second SW groundswell in the afternoon. The energy is a massive 6954, and it’s flagged as excellent for experienced surfers. That’s one to keep an eye on, but it’s a long way out.

So, to wrap it up, the best bet is likely Monday the 31st of August for the glassy, clean 5ft swell, or if you're an expert, the afternoon of Tuesday the 1st of September or the 10th of September for the big, powerful groundswell. Keep your fingers crossed for the forecast to hold.

Rusty.

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