Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Howdy, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Tubes over the next couple weeks. It’s a bit of a frustrating forecast at first, but there are a couple of moments that’ll make it all worthwhile.

The early part is pretty grim. Onshore winds and chop are the story for most of the first few days, so you’ll be sitting it out unless you’re real keen.

Thursday morning the 13th is the first thing on the board. Tubes has a 4ft SSW groundswell coming in with a very long 20-second period, and a light offshore breeze from the NE at 9 mph. The combined swell energy is a hefty 2117. But the water is a very unusual 58°, way colder than average, so you’ll need a thick suit. The report calls it marginal, so don’t expect perfection. Then it’s messy for a few days straight.

Your first real window comes Saturday morning the 15th. The wind goes dead calm—totally glassy—on a clean 4ft SW swell at 14 seconds. Combined energy is moderate at 481. This is a beauty for a smaller board, smooth as anything.

Sunday the 16th afternoon is also clean. The wind turns offshore from the SW at 12 mph, grooming a 5ft SW swell. It’ll be tidy and lined up. Energy is 623.

But the session to circle on your calendar is Monday morning the 17th. We’ve got a solid 6ft SW groundswell, 14-second period, with a light 3 mph offshore breeze from the SW. Combined energy hits a strong 1236. It’s going to be clean, powerful, and very, very good. This is the pick of the whole 16-day run. It’s getting into the size where beginners should sit it out, but for anyone else, it’ll be firing.

Then the trades take over. Strong east winds blow in from the 19th onwards, making conditions choppy and lumpy. There’s plenty of swell—including a huge 12ft SSW pulse on Saturday the 22nd with energy at a massive 4926—but with those strong cross-onshore winds, it’s a messy, blown-out scene. That size is expert-only anyway, and with the wind, you’re better off rigging up a kite.

The forecast cleans up at the very end. Thursday the 27th has a light cross-offshore breeze with a 4ft SW swell. Clean. Then Friday the 28th morning goes glassy again—zero wind—with a nice 5ft SW swell at 12 seconds. That’s a sneaky good session to finish on.

Bottom line: Saturday 15th morning for a glassy small-wave session, but the absolute standout is Monday 17th morning. Everything else is wind-affected or just too big and messy. Stay patient and be ready for that Monday.

Rusty.

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