Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've got the inside word on the surf for the next couple of weeks. We're looking at a solid run of swell, but you've got to pick your moments with the wind. The first few days are a bit of a tease, but the back half of the forecast has some serious muscle.

Let's start with the big picture. We kick off on Thursday, 27 August, but honestly, the conditions are a mess. The wind is light and onshore, so the 7ft SSW swell at Tubes is just going to be a lumpy, bumpy affair. The wave energy is strong (1513), but the quality isn't there. Wait it out.

Friday, 28 August, is where it gets interesting. We've got a 4ft SSW swell, but the wind swings offshore out of the SW, and the period is a solid 11 seconds. The wave energy is moderate (426), but with "gentle offshore and clean" conditions, this is the real deal for a smaller, cleaner wave. Saturday, 29 August, is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning has a 3ft S swell with a cross-off wind, but it's a bit onshore. The afternoon gets a 3ft SW swell with a 13-second period and offshore wind, so it's clean but small. The energy is moderate (394-486).

Now, Sunday, 30 August, brings a spike in size. We're looking at 10ft of SW swell, but the morning is pulsing with a short 8-second period and a cross-off wind. The energy is strong (1319), but the quality is poor. The afternoon is better with a 9-second period and fresh offshore wind, but it's still a bit raw. Monday, 31 August, has a 8ft to 7ft WSW swell, with the afternoon looking the pick. The wind is offshore, the period is a nice 12 seconds, and the energy is strong (1236). The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." This is a good window.

The first standout is Tuesday, 1 September. We've got an 8ft SSW swell, but the wind is completely glassy in the morning. The period is 11 seconds, and the wave energy is very strong (1666). The afternoon is just as good with a cross-off wind. This is going to be clean, powerful, and the crowd might be on it, so get in early.

Then on Wednesday, 2 September, the swell jumps to 13ft from the SW with a 14-second period. The wind is offshore, the energy is extreme (5603), and the forecast says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is a big, powerful groundswell, and it's only for the experts. The wave energy is huge, and the period is long, so it will be lined up and powerful, but a bit tricky at a beach break.

Thursday, 3 September, is a write-off. The swell is 16ft to 20ft, but the wind is a near gale out of the SE, and the conditions are "poor." The energy is massive (6896-8927), but you won't be able to paddle into it. This continues into Friday, 4 September, with a 20ft to 21ft SE swell, gale-force winds, and heavy rain. It's a mess.

The second standout is a long-range promise. On Sunday, 6 September, the afternoon window is exceptional. The swell is 20ft from the ESE with a 12-second period, and the wind is offshore. The energy is off the charts (15980), and the forecast says "exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers." This is a monster, but it's two weeks out, so keep an eye on it. The conditions are clean, but it's massive.

Monday, 7 September, hangs in with 20ft ESE swell and cross-off winds, but it's not as clean. The energy is still extreme (10198). Tuesday, 8 September, drops to 12ft to 10ft, and the afternoon has offshore wind and "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." The energy is still strong (2019-2677). The surf then fades out through the end of the run, with small, weak conditions by Wednesday, 9 September.

So, to wrap it up: if you're looking for the best mix of size, quality, and conditions, Tuesday, 1 September is your day at Tubes. The glassy morning will be magic. For the big-wave crew, Sunday, 6 September afternoon is the one to circle, but it's a long way off. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so nothing crazy there.

Rusty.

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