Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s your local surf outlook.

We’ve got a cracking run of solid swell coming in, but it’s not for the faint-hearted. This is a serious stretch of groundswell, and it’s all kicking off from Wednesday afternoon, July 8th. The water’s running a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 63°F, which is a touch below average—worth grabbing that extra rubber.

Tubes is the only break in play, and it’s a reef and point setup that holds onto the south-west groundswell. The window starts Wednesday afternoon with a chunky 10ft of SSW swell, period at 13 seconds—solid. But the wind is a messy fresh westerly cross-off at 19 mph, and the combined energy reading is a pumping 3205. It’s not the cleanest start, so Thursday morning is where the magic starts.

Thursday morning, July 9th, is a standout. The swell pushes to 12ft from the WSW, with a long 14-second period. Combined energy jumps to 4560, and the wind is a clean offshore from the WSW at 16 mph. This is proper heavy, expert-only territory—smooth, lined-up sets with heaps of push. The crowd factor is a consideration with crowds rated as “sometimes,” so you might have a few out, but the quality will thin them out. Thursday afternoon sees the same size but with an easterly shift to SSW and a lighter 9 mph offshore—still excellent, still only for experienced surfers. That whole block from Thursday through Friday afternoon is top-shelf.

Friday morning, July 10th, it’s 12ft from the SSW again, period 13 seconds, combined energy 4228, with a cross-off westerly at 9 mph. Friday afternoon drops a little to 10ft, but the wind goes offshore and glassy from the WSW at 6 mph—clean as a whistle. The period holds at 13 seconds, making for well-shaped, powerful lines. This is comfortably the best period on offer: big, clean, and focused.

Saturday, July 11th, the swell drops to 8ft, but the wind swings onshore from the east, and the quality falls off fast—choppy and messy. By Sunday, it’s down to 6ft and still cross-onshore, so the magic is gone. There’s a quiet patch from Sunday through Tuesday with small, ordinary waves—under 5ft and mostly weak short-period stuff—so nothing to get excited about.

Then we get a spike mid-week. Wednesday, July 16th, the swell jumps back to 12ft from the WSW, but the wind is howling from the WSW at 28 mph—a strong breeze. It’s clean but wind-affected, and the combined energy is 2247. This is more of a kite-surfing show than paddle surfing—the quality is marginal, and the wind’s too strong for clean lines.

Thursday, July 17th, sees 8ft from the SW with a 13-second period and a gentle cross-shore breeze—it’s doable but not the peak. The period is long enough for the point break to handle it, but there’s a slight cross-chop. The next real highlight lands on Monday, July 21st, with a long 15-second period south-west swell at 7ft. Combined energy is 2564, and the wind is a clean cross-off west at 9 mph. This is a quality groundswell with long gaps between sets—perfect for a reef/point setup like Tubes. It’s a promising call for the second week, though forecasts that far out aren’t set in stone.

Tuesday, July 22nd, the swell pumps up to 10ft from the SSW with a 14-second period, combined energy at 3323, and a light cross-shore—set to be good, but again, it’s expert-level size. Wednesday, July 23rd, gets even bigger with 12ft from the SSW, 16-second period, combined energy at 6037, but a near-gale from the west makes it a no-go. Thursday, July 24th, is the real end-of-forecast standout—13ft from the SW, 14-second period, combined energy at 5962, and glassy conditions with a light easterly. That’s heavy, clean, and massive—only for the brave, and it’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

The standouts are Thursday morning and Friday, July 9th and 10th—that’s the best of the run. Thursday, July 24th, is a long-range bombshell if it holds.

Rusty.

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