Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and sit down, because the next couple of weeks are looking absolutely stacked. The quiet spell we’re in right now is about to get blown out of the water by a serious run of Southern Ocean groundswells. We’re talking a solid, sustained pulse of energy that’s going to make Tubes (reef and point) the place to be for the experienced crew. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there, but the surf is about to get wild.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off, honestly. Wednesday morning (15th July) is a no-go with weak 5 ft swell and a short 7-second period, plus messy cross-off winds. The energy is just dribbling in at 340 – not worth getting wet. Thursday morning (16th July) is where it finally kicks off, but don’t be fooled by the size. A solid 10 ft swell from the SW with a 14-second period rolls in, and the energy jumps to a hefty 3095. That’s proper groundswell. The kicker? Glassy light winds. This is excellent for experienced surfers only – 10 ft is too big for beginners. That afternoon, it drops to 8 ft with clean offshore winds from the SSW. If you can handle it, this is the real start of the run.

Friday (17th July) keeps the pedal down. Morning sees 10 ft again, light offshore from the WSW, period at 12 seconds, and energy at 2281. It’s clean as a whistle. The afternoon gets a bit sloppy with a cross-shore breeze, so aim for the early session. Saturday (18th July) is a day to sleep in; the swell drops to 5 ft, and by afternoon it’s tiny at 3 ft, even if it is glassy. Not worth the paddle.

Now, hold onto your board. Sunday (19th July) looks gnarly in a bad way. The swell is 10 ft in the morning, but it’s being hammered by a 35 km/h cross-off wind. That’s a fresh breeze, and it’s going to make a mess of things. The energy is still moderate at 1171, but the conditions are poor. The afternoon bumps up to 12 ft but the wind is still a fresh 30 km/h. It’s going to be a battle. Monday (20th July) sees a shift; onshore wind in the morning, but the afternoon turns glassy with 8 ft from the SW and a 12-second period. Energy sits at 1772, and it’s looking very good. That’s a solid session.

Alright, here’s the standout. The true epicentre of this whole forecast is Tuesday 21st July. The morning kicks off with a massive 12 ft SSW groundswell, a 16-second period, and energy that screams at 6470. The wind is light offshore from the WSW. That’s a dream combo for a reef. The afternoon is even bigger: 13 ft, 15-second period, and energy blasting at 7934. The wind is a light cross-off from the SSW. This is not for the faint-hearted. Only experts. Wednesday 22nd July is still pumping at 12 ft, with a clean offshore in the afternoon and energy at 4135. Crowds are possible at Tubes, so be ready for company.

The second week continues the onslaught. Thursday 23rd July has 15 ft in the morning, but it’s a bit windy. The afternoon is cleaner with 13 ft and gentle offshore winds. Friday 24th July is a bit slower with cross-shore winds, but the swell is still 10 ft. The real highlight of the second week is Tuesday 29th July. The morning and afternoon both deliver 13 ft from the SW with a 15-second period, energy over 7000, and gentle offshore winds. It’s a week out, so less certain, but if it holds, it’s a carbon copy of the 21st. The run finally starts to fade by Wednesday 30th July, with a cross-onshore breeze making things choppy.

Overall, this is a classic run of big, long-period groundswells. The best days are Tuesday 21st July and Tuesday 29th July – those are the absolute standouts. The period is so long (15-16 seconds) that the waves will have serious power and shape, but they’ll also be a bit walled-up at the beach, so Tubes being a reef and point is perfect. If you’re an expert, you’re in for a treat. If you’re not, stay on the beach and watch the show.

Rusty.

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