Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – we’ve got a tricky run ahead. There’s plenty of swell on the cards, but the wind isn’t going to play nice for most of it, so we gotta be smart about picking our windows.

First up, the real standout is Tubes on Friday July 3rd. It’s a reef and point break, so it handles a decent swell well. Friday morning has a solid 7ft swell from the SE with a period of 11 seconds and a combined energy of 2083 (moderate to strong energy). But the real magic is Friday afternoon: the wind goes glassy, almost nothing, and we’re looking at a 8ft SE swell, again 11 seconds, with the same strong energy (1905). That’s clean, that’s got push, and for a sheltered spot like Tubes that loves a SSW swell optimum, this SE isn’t a perfect match, but the conditions are so good it’ll still be the pick. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild to report.

Come Saturday the 4th, the morning has a 7ft SE swell, 12 seconds, but the wind is cross-shore. The afternoon turns clearer but the wind swings cross-onshore. It’s surfable but not as clean. By Sunday the 5th, the swell drops to 5ft, then 4ft, and the energy falls off (919 and 835). We’re in a bit of a lull.

Then on Monday July 6th, another good window opens. Monday morning is glassy again with a 7ft swell that’s switched to the SW (12 seconds, 1432 energy). This swell direction matches Tubes’s optimum much better, so the shape should be quality. This is your other standout – clean, decent size, and good direction. After that, the winds start turning onshore more often.

Through Tuesday the 7th, we get clean cross-off winds and 7ft to 7ft SW swells, still very surfable. But by Wednesday the 8th, the wind picks up to 12-19 mph, and though it’s cross-off, it’s a moderate to fresh breeze. The swell gets bigger – 8ft from the SW with 14-second periods – but the bump starts to creep in.

Now here’s the rough patch. From Thursday the 9th right through to the 13th of July, the wind is mostly cross-onshore from the East, and we get some big, messy swells. On Thursday the 9th, it’s 12ft from the SSW with 14-second periods (energy 4579) but the wind kills it. Friday the 10th is similar with 10ft swells and onshore winds. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are plain poor – rain, strong onshore winds (up to 22 mph), and lumpy, choppy conditions. The swell hits 10ft from the S with a very long 16-second period on the 12th, but it’s blown out. For this spot, when it’s that big and messy, it’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

We get a quiet gap from the 13th onwards with the swell dropping below 3ft and only weak energy (228 and 161). That’s a lull until Wednesday July 15th, when a big new swell arrives. The 15th shows 12ft to 15ft SW swells with strong energy (3276, 4981). The wind is cross-off and fresh, so it’s clean, but at 15ft, that’s expert-only territory, especially as the period hits 14-15 seconds, making it a proper groundswell. This is a long-range standout to keep an eye on – promising, but less certain this far out.

Thursday the 16th keeps the 15ft SW swell going (energy 8743 and 7672 – very strong), same story: clean but for big-wave experts only. Friday the 17th has the swell dropping to 12ft but the wind goes cross-onshore again, chopping it up. Saturday the 18th is a fade.

So, bottom line: your best shots are Friday afternoon the 3rd and Monday morning the 6th. That’s where you get clean conditions, good energy, and a solid swell. The second week has that big pulse around the 15th and 16th, but it’s a big, serious, groundswell for the brave.

Rusty.

Read more