Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s in store for Tubes over the next couple of weeks. This is a reef and point break that needs a specific swell angle to really fire, and the next sixteen days are gonna be a mixed bag, with some real magic moments buried in there.

Right off the bat, the first few days are a write-off. We’ve got a solid 8 ft SW groundswell (period of 15 seconds) with a strong 30 km/h cross-onshore wind, and the combined energy is chunky at 2307. All that energy, and it’s just blown-out, lumpy junk. Not worth paddling out for. That run of poor conditions continues right through the end of the week. Nothing to see here.

The outlook starts to turn around Monday the 15th of September. The wind drops right off, and we get clean conditions with a light breeze. The swell has dropped back to a clean 4 ft to 5 ft from the SW with a period of 10-11 seconds. It’s small but clean and rideable—the kind of day where you can get a few fun ones without fighting the current too hard. The combined energy sits around 474 to 524 (moderate), so there is some push, but nothing crazy.

Now here’s the standout. If you are an experienced surfer, you want to circle Wednesday the 16th of September. That afternoon we get a pumping 8 ft SW swell with a 14-second period and clean, cross-off winds. The combined energy jumps to 2696, which is strong. That is proper, powerful groundswell pushing into this sheltered reef. It’s not huge enough to be dangerous, but it’s definitely expert territory. The morning sees 10 ft with lighter winds and clean surfaces too, but it’s bigger and the rating suggests it’s for those who know what they’re doing. That Wednesday is your best bet of the first week.

After that, things get messy again for a few days with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy conditions from the 18th through the 20th. The swell sticks around, but the wind kills it. You’ll be wasting your time.

The next decent window pops up on Monday the 22nd of September? No, wait. That day has cross-onshore wind and poor conditions. The real next highlight is Wednesday the 23rd of September. The afternoon session there is a beauty: a 6 ft SW swell with a proper offshore wind from the SW. Clean, glassy face, and the combined energy is 1540 (solid moderate). This is a real treat for intermediate surfers—long period (13 seconds), clean lines, not too crowded, and the wind is off. That’s the pick of the second week.

Looking further out, Sunday the 27th of September has some potential for the brave. We get a 8 ft to 7 ft SW groundswell with a long 16 to 17-second period, and the wind turns offshore in the afternoon. The combined energy is up at 2734 to 3302 (strong). This is proper, heavy groundswell. It will be clean, but with those long gaps between sets and that power, this is strictly for experienced surfers on the point. Keep an eye on it, but don’t take a beginner.

As for the water, when you’re paddling out at Tubes, the water temperature anomaly isn’t given, so it's just whatever is average for this time of year. Don’t overthink it.

Bottom line: If you can only surf one day, make it Wednesday the 16th of September afternoon for expert-level perfection, or Wednesday the 23rd of September afternoon for a cleaner, more manageable session with offshore winds. The rest of the time is either blown out or too small. Stay patient, folks.

Rusty

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