Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about Tubes. This reef and point break is tucked away and sheltered, so it needs a specific swell direction to light up – and it’s got that SSW window that lines up perfectly. Right now, we’re in a bit of a wait. The first few days are a write-off. Monday, the 7th, is a complete mess – a 8ft SSW swell with a 14-second period gets hammered by onshore breeze, and the water is a freezing 61°F which is a full 5°F colder than normal for this time of year, so that’s very unusual. Just forget it. Tuesday morning, the 8th, is where we start to see a glimmer. The swell drops to 4ft from the SW, but the wind goes glassy – dead calm, zero. That’s a major positive. The wave energy is moderate (697). It’s clean, small, but it’s the first real chance to get wet.

The standout period is Thursday, the 10th. The morning is already good: 4ft of SW swell, 13-second period, with a gentle offshore breeze from the SW. Clean, groomed lines. But the afternoon is the pick of the whole outlook. The swell jumps to 6ft from the SW, the period stretches to a very long 16 seconds, and the offshore wind from the SSW stays clean. The combined energy spikes to 2044 (strong wave energy). This is proper groundswell, and Tubes being a reef and point, that long period will wrap in beautifully. The conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to target.

Friday, the 11th, and Saturday, the 12th, get messy again with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions. The swell stays around 7ft but it’s poor quality. Sunday, the 13th, offers a little hope with a 7ft SW swell and a 15-second period, but the wind is light cross-onshore, causing small wind ripples – marginal.

Then, a big one. Wednesday, the 16th, is wild. The morning brings a powerful 12ft SW swell with a 14-second period, and a fresh offshore wind from the WSW. The combined energy is massive (5706). This is not for the faint-hearted – over 8ft, so experts only. The afternoon pushes even bigger at 13ft, same direction, but the wind switches to a cross-off. The energy is enormous (6231), but the conditions are clean. If you’re an expert, this is a monster session, but it’s a long way out – over a week away – so keep an eye on it.

The rest of the second week is a mixed bag of strong winds, bigger swells, and messy cross-chop. Thursday and Friday, the 17th and 18th, are blown out by strong onshore winds. Saturday, the 19th, is tiny and messy. Sunday, the 20th, has a clean 5ft SW swell with offshore wind, but the energy is moderate (915) – surfable but not a standout. The last few days, Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd, are small, clean-ish, but nothing special.

Overall, the best on offer is Thursday, the 10th, afternoon – clean, solid, long-period groundswell. The second real standout is Wednesday, the 16th, for the big-wave crew, but it’s a long-range call and less certain. Gaps? There’s a few days of rubbish at the start, and some rough patches mid-week, but it’s not a total blank run. Tubes is consistent, so it rarely stays flat for long.

Rusty.

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