Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table at Tubes.

The outlook starts on Thursday the 10th of September with a small window, but honestly, it’s not worth getting too excited about just yet. There’s a gap right at the start with a fairly weak showing on Thursday morning – a 3ft SSW swell with a very long 17-second period, but the combined energy is low (960) and the water is running a staggering 5° colder than normal for this time of year. That’s seriously unusual, so expect a bit of a shock when you first get in.

Thursday afternoon shapes up better with the first real standout: a solid 7ft SW groundswell, 16-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 2155, which is a solid moderate energy. The wind swings offshore from the SW, keeping it clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers, but with that size over 6ft, beginners should sit this one out. Tubes is a reef and point setup, so a long-period groundswell like this will wrap in nicely.

Friday the 11th is another highlight. Friday morning is glassy with an ESE breeze at just 3 mph, clean as a whistle. The swell drops slightly to 6ft from the SW, period 13 seconds, and energy is still moderate (1219). This is prime for intermediate surfers – clean, manageable, and the crowd factor at Tubes can be an issue (crowds listed as "sometimes"), so get in early.

Friday afternoon turns ugly – a cross-onshore wind kicks up and the quality drops off hard.

Saturday the 12th through Sunday the 13th is mostly a write-off with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions. Swell gets bigger, but the wind ruins it. The combined energy on Sunday morning hits 3536 – that’s strong energy – but it’s messy and blown out.

Monday the 14th offers a slight reprieve: a 8ft ESE swell with light onshore wind. It’s marginal, but the reef setup might offer something if you’re desperate.

The next real standout comes on Wednesday the 16th. Wednesday morning and afternoon both look excellent. The morning sees a 6ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds, combined energy of 3233 (strong), with a moderate offshore breeze. The afternoon jumps to a powerful 12ft SW swell, 15-second period, and energy hits 4457 – that’s strong to very strong. The wind stays offshore and gentle. This is expert territory at over 8ft, but for those who can handle it, the shape and power will be world-class.

Thursday the 17th morning keeps the quality going with a clean 8ft SW swell, 13 seconds, and light cross-offshore winds. Still big, still for experienced surfers only.

After that, the forecast gets more mixed. There’s another strong pulse on Saturday the 19th afternoon with a 8ft ESE swell and fresh offshore wind, but the period drops to 12 seconds, and it’s marginal.

Sunday the 20th is a gem: both morning and afternoon have gentle offshore winds, 6ft to 7ft SW swells, and periods around 13-14 seconds. The energy is strong (2557 to 2895), and conditions are clean. This is one of the best, most accessible windows for strong intermediate surfers.

Monday the 21st sees the biggest swell of the period: a massive 13ft SSW groundswell at 16 seconds, with combined energy of 7344 – very strong. Light winds keep it clean, but this is for experts only. Tuesday the 22nd holds similar size, around 10ft, with offshore winds in the afternoon.

The final days (23rd to 25th September) fade in quality. Winds turn onshore or cross-off, and the swell drops back to the 5ft to 7ft range. Nothing worth planning a trip around.

Bottom line: The true standouts are Thursday the 10th afternoon, Friday the 11th morning, and the entire Wednesday the 16th to Sunday the 20th stretch, especially Sunday. Get on it.

Rusty.

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