Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

The first real surf shows on Tuesday morning, September 1st, at Tubes. It’s a reef and point set-up, and it’s looking clean with a 2.3m groundswell from the SW, period at 12 seconds. Water temp is 16°, which is a solid three degrees colder than normal – that’s a serious chill. Combined swell energy is 1488 (moderate to strong), and with glassy conditions and next to no wind (5 km/h from the SSE), the morning is going to be smooth and lined up. The swell direction matches the optimum SSW for this spot. That’s your standout of the whole outlook – clean, powerful, and well-timed.

Tuesday afternoon bumps to 2.5m but the wind goes light cross-shore from the ESE, so it’s not as pristine. Still good, but morning is the call.

Wednesday the 2nd keeps the run alive. 3.0m of SW groundswell at 13 seconds – that’s expert territory (over 2.5m). Combined energy is very strong at 3415, and with light cross-offshore wind from the SSE, the surf is clean and powerful. This is a real standout for experienced surfers.

Thursday the 3rd holds up. Morning brings 2.3m SW swell at 13 seconds with moderate rain, but cross-offshore wind from the SSE at 15 km/h keeps it clean. Combined energy at 2082 – still very solid.

Then it gets ugly. From Friday the 4th through the first week, strong cross and cross-onshore winds from the SE and ESE kick in, 25 to 35 km/h. The ocean turns lumpy, choppy, and messy. Even Sunday the 6th sees a massive 4.5m SSW groundswell with a very long 19-second period and combined energy of 13248 (very strong), but fresh onshore winds ruin it. That kind of power with bad wind is more for kite surfing than paddling. Stay out unless you want a beating.

The second week is mostly small and wind-affected. Monday the 7th through the middle of the month – mostly poor to marginal. A break on Monday the 14th: glassy conditions from the SSE in the morning with a tiny 0.7m WSW swell – barely surfable but smooth. The afternoon of the 14th offers 1.3m SW swell with light cross-offshore wind – clean but small. Combined energy is 663, moderate.

The real standout in the second week comes on Wednesday the 16th of September. Morning brings 1.6m of SW groundswell at 12 seconds, combined energy of 894 (moderate), and light cross-offshore wind from the S at only 5 km/h. Clean, with some push. That’s a good way to finish the forecast period. The afternoon holds at 1.4m but with a stronger cross-offshore from the WSW at 25 km/h, so the morning is the call.

Overall, the first three days – Tuesday the 1st morning, Wednesday the 2nd morning, and Thursday the 3rd morning – are your true standouts. After that, it’s a long, messy stretch until the 14th and 16th offer small but clean moments. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

Read more