Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Got a good 16-day window ahead, but don’t rush out just yet – the first few days have some size, but conditions get messy. The real standout is much later, especially around July 24th and 25th, when some huge swell lines up with perfect wind. Let’s break it down.

Tubes (reef and point) is the only break, and it’s a consistent spot that likes swell from the SSW. We start Friday July 10th with a solid 12ft SSW groundswell rolling in at a 13-second period. The combined energy is pumping at 4121 (moderate to strong). Morning has a cross-off wind from the W at 9 mph, but the afternoon turns it on – light offshore from the SSW at 3 mph, making for clean, excellent conditions. This is expert territory at this size, and with the break sheltered from the SSW, you’ll score. Crowds are possible sometimes, so get in early.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th see the swell dropping from 10ft down to 5ft, but the wind swings easterly and goes cross-on. It gets choppy and marginal – not worth paddling out for. Monday the 13th has the swell down around 4ft with cleaner, offshore breezes, but it’s ordinary surf – small and weak.

Tuesday the 14th brings a shift. The swell goes ESE at 5ft with a 9-second period, and the energy drops to around 460 (weak). Winds are clean – cross-off in the morning, offshore in the afternoon. It’s small but clean for a fun session. Wednesday the 15th is mixed – morning has a tiny 2ft SW swell (energy a weak 82), but the afternoon sees a pulse of 6ft SW at 8 seconds, energy 653 (moderate). Short-period windswell, but clean with cross-off winds.

Now here’s where it gets good. Thursday the 16th: the morning is glassy calm with a 10ft SW groundswell at 13 seconds. Energy at 2733 (moderate to strong). That’s excellent surf for experienced surfers – clean, big, and lined up. The afternoon gets messy with cross-shore wind, but that morning is a standout.

Friday the 17th has 5ft SW swell, but the wind picks up to 16 mph in the afternoon, making it poor. Saturday the 18th is a write-off – onshore winds and choppy. Sunday the 19th brings a big 12ft SW swell at 14 seconds, energy hitting 3981 (strong). The morning has onshore wind, so it’s marginal for surfing – with that onshore wind and size, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The afternoon stays cross-on.

Monday the 20th is a beauty. Clean 8ft SW groundswell at 11 seconds, with gentle offshore winds from the WSW at 9 mph. Energy at 1344 (moderate). Very good conditions for experienced surfers. Tuesday the 21st drops off with small, choppy junk.

Wednesday the 22nd: another solid pulse. Morning has 10ft WSW swell at 9 seconds, with a moderate offshore from the WSW at 13 mph – clean and powerful. The afternoon gets even better: 12ft WSW at 10 seconds, gentle offshore from the SSW, energy at 2127 (moderate to strong). Excellent for experts.

Then the true standout. Thursday the 23rd has a 5ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, glassy calm in the morning – perfect for the reef. Energy is 1861. Clean, long walls. But Friday the 24th is next-level: 16ft WSW groundswell at 14 seconds, glassy calm in the morning (energy 8989 – very strong), then the afternoon jumps to 25ft SW at 15 seconds with energy at 22974 (very strong). Clean, light winds. Exceptional for experts only. Saturday the 25th keeps the mega-swell going with 16ft SW at 16 seconds, glassy again in the morning, energy 12938 (very strong). That’s a heavy groundswell with very long periods – best on the reef where it won’t just close out.

The picks of the window: Thursday morning the 16th for a big, clean 10ft SSW groundswell, and Friday the 24th for epic, giant glassy conditions. If you’re an expert, don’t miss that final week.

Rusty.

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