Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down. The 16-day window is a real mixed bag. There’s a big gap of nothing worthwhile at the start, then a serious pulse of energy rolls in, but you gotta pick your moments carefully.

The first real sniff of anything decent is not until Saturday afternoon, July 4th. Before that, it’s a write-off. The weekend itself is a bit of a tease. Saturday morning has some swell but the wind is messy and the conditions are a letdown. The standout comes on Saturday afternoon when the wind drops to glassy, and the swell is a solid 6 ft from the SE with a 12-second period. The energy is moderate (1462), and the water temperature is about average for the time of year. This is clean, but it’s not the big one.

Sunday is a drop-off. The swell backs off to 4-5 ft, and while the wind is okay, it’s not the same quality. We’re waiting.

Now, Monday July 6th is where it gets interesting. Monday morning, Tubes is glassy with a clean 6 ft swell from the SW, 12-second period, moderate energy (1182). That’s a solid morning surf. But the real goods are later in the week.

The standout, the one you circle on the calendar, is Thursday July 9th. Thursday morning is glassy, 10 ft of SSW swell with a 13-second period. The combined energy is strong (3504). This is excellent surf, but it’s big. At 10 ft, this is only for experienced surfers. The wind is glassy, the conditions are pristine. Thursday afternoon stays clean with a cross-off breeze and the same size. Friday July 10th morning is also glassy with the same 10 ft SSW groundswell. This is the peak of the first big pulse.

After that, it gets messy. Saturday July 11th is a write-off with strong cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. The swell drops through the middle of the week.

Then, the second big pulse shows up. Thursday July 16th morning brings another 10 ft WSW swell, glassy, with strong energy (2683). But the real monster is Friday July 17th. That morning, Tubes has 13 ft of SW swell with a 15-second period. The combined energy is massive (7836). This is a very long-period groundswell, and it’s going to be powerful and walled up at the reef. The wind is light cross-off, clean. This is for experts only. Friday afternoon stays offshore with the same size, same energy. This is the best on offer in the whole window, but it’s a week and a half away, so while it looks promising, don’t book the trip just yet.

Saturday July 18th the swell backs off to 10 ft but the wind goes cross-shore, making it less perfect. Sunday July 19th morning is a nice glassy finisher with 6 ft SSW swell.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a slow start, then a solid few days. The second week has a massive, expert-only swell around the 17th. If you’re an experienced surfer, the 9th, 10th, and 17th are the targets. The 17th is the standout, but it’s a long way out.

Rusty.

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