Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, it’s a frustrating start here at Tubes. The first few days are a write-off. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th have tiny, weak swell with average winds, and the forecast calls it marginal. Nothing to get excited about at all. You’ll be waiting until Wednesday the 16th for the ocean to wake up, but even then, it comes with a catch.

Wednesday morning sees a big jump in size – we’re talking 10ft of SW swell with a solid 14-second period. The combined energy is massive (3807), so there’s plenty of power, but the wind is howling out of the WSW at 35 km/h. It’s cross-off, so it’s clean, but that’s a lot of breeze. This is strictly for experienced surfers; beginners stay well clear. The energy stays high through Thursday and Friday, but the wind switches onshore and ruins it. Thursday and Friday are just messy, choppy, and poor – a total loss.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. After a rough run, Sunday the 20th shapes up as the standout window. The morning brings 10ft of ESE swell with a moderate 11-second period, and the wind is offshore from the WSW at 20 km/h. The combined energy is still hefty at 2744, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the pick of the first week – clean, powerful, and off the wind. If you’re charging, that’s your session.

The middle of the week is a mixed bag. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd are blown out again by onshore winds and lumpy seas, so don’t bother. Wednesday the 23rd is smaller and still onshore. Not worth the paddle.

But hold on, because the second week has a real gem. Friday the 25th is special. The morning serves up 7ft of SW groundswell with a 13-second period, and the wind is glassy – dead calm from the ENE at just 5 km/h. The combined energy is a strong 1891. The afternoon is even better: 7ft of clean SW swell with zero wind, completely glassy. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the real highlight of the entire 16-day run. Clear your schedule for Friday the 25th.

The weekend after that fades out. Saturday the 26th has offshore wind but drops in size, and Sunday the 27th is clean but smaller again. The very end of the forecast, Monday the 29th morning, has a glassy 4ft of long-period SW swell (14 seconds), which could be fun on a point or reef, but it’s the tail end of the window.

Overall, it’s a classic story of a slow start, a big but windy middle, and a glorious, glassy payoff at the end. The water temperature is a chilly 61°F – that’s 5°F colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick wetsuit. The crowds at Tubes can turn up, especially when it’s good, so expect company on that Friday the 25th.

Stay patient, and that last Friday is your day.

- Rusty

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