Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid run of swell on the way for Tubes over the next couple of weeks, but not every day is a winner. We’ll have to be patient for the real gems.

The pattern kicks off with a decent-sized swell from the SSW, but the wind is a mess. Saturday and Sunday the 11th and 12th are basically write-offs with onshore and cross-onshore winds messing up the 10ft to 5ft waves. The combined energy is high – 2540 on Saturday morning – but the chop will be ugly. Don’t bother paddling out.

Things start to turn around on Monday the 13th of July. The swell drops to a more manageable 4ft, still from the SSW, but the wind goes glassy in the morning. Combined energy is a weak 305, but those clean, glassy conditions will make it feel better than it looks. It’s not a standout, but it’s a start.

The first real standout window is Tuesday the 14th of July morning. The wind is dead calm, glassy, and the swell is a clean 5ft from the ESE. The period is a short 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit weaker, but the combined energy (472) and the total lack of wind will make for a fun, user-friendly session. This is the one to aim for if you want an easy, clean surf.

Then we get a bit of a lull in quality until the big stuff arrives. The morning of Wednesday the 15th is clean with 7ft from the SW and a 9-second period, but the wind is cross-offshore. Fun, but not the peak.

The real gold is on Thursday the 16th of July. The afternoon session is a treat for experienced surfers. You’ve got 10ft of groundswell from the SW, a 13-second period, and offshore winds from the WSW. Combined energy is a very strong 2917. It’s big, powerful, and clean. This is a day for the regulars who know the lineup.

Friday the 17th of July holds some size too, with 10ft from the SW in the morning, but the wind is cross-off and the conditions are a bit on the edge. The afternoon though, the wind swings onshore and it’s 12ft – that’s a no-go.

Saturday the 18th is a write-off with strong onshore winds. Sunday the 19th afternoon has a nice comeback: 6ft from the SSE with a 12-second period and offshore winds from the SSW. Combined energy is 1136 and it’s clean. That’s a solid session.

The start of the next week is small. Monday the 20th afternoon has 3ft and offshore wind, but it’s weak. Tuesday the 21st is a mess.

Now, for the long-range highlight. Look ahead to Thursday the 23rd of July. The morning has 10ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, offshore wind from the SW, and a combined energy of 4543. The afternoon is similar with 8ft and a 15-second period. This is a world-class reef setup. It’s for experts only – don’t even think about it if you’re not comfortable in big, powerful conditions.

But the absolute standout of the entire forecast is Friday the 24th of July. The morning session has 8ft from the SSW with a mind-blowing 22-second period, combined energy of 7807, and clean cross-offshore wind. The afternoon is even bigger: 13ft from the SSW, 19-second period, and a combined energy of 10868. This is an exceptional, once-in-a-while event for experienced surfers. The period is so long that the waves will have incredible power and shape, but at a beach break, it might be too straight. At Tubes, a reef and point break, this is the dream. Expect it to be crowded.

After that, Saturday the 25th is still big but onshore, and then Sunday the 26th of July morning closes out the window with 12ft from the SW, a 14-second period, and glassy winds. Combined energy of 4563. That’s a massive, clean session to end the run.

Water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no worries on that front.

Stay sharp, watch the tides, and don't sleep on that 24th of July.

Rusty.

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