Tubes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Tubes over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow burner with a couple of absolute gems if you’re patient.

We’ve got a decent run starting off, but the first few days are more about getting wet than getting anything special. The water’s sitting at 64°, which is a bit colder than we’re used to for this time of year, so a good steamer is going to be your mate.

Saturday the 11th kicks off with a 10ft SSW groundswell – that’s a proper size, but the wind is cross-on from the east and the combined energy is pumping at 2540 (moderate to strong). It’s messy with the rain showers, and honestly, it’s a marginal call. Sunday the 12th drops to 6ft in the morning with the same cross-on wind and 939 combined energy (weak to moderate), still not clean enough to get stoked about. Monday the 13th is where we start to see a change. The morning has a glassy 4ft SSW swell with only 305 combined energy (weak). It’s surfable, but really ordinary.

Tuesday the 14th throws a curveball – a 5ft ESE swell from a different direction in the morning with zero wind, glassy as a mirror, and 560 combined energy (moderate). That’s the first real clean option, but the swell is a bit small and short-period at 9 seconds, so it’s not packing much punch.

Wednesday the 15th afternoon gets interesting. The swell bumps to 6ft from the SW, period short at 7 seconds, but the wind is cross-off and clean, combined energy at 648 (moderate). Better shape but still not firing.

The standout window opens on Thursday the 16th. Thursday morning delivers a 10ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period and cross-off wind. Combined energy is 3555 (strong). That’s clean and powerful—excellent for experienced surfers. Thursday afternoon is offshore at 12 mph with a 8ft SW swell, still a 14-second period, and 2521 combined energy (strong). This is a top pick. Tides may be a factor but the “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” rating says it all. If you’re confident, this is your session.

Friday the 17th is for experts only. The morning shows a 15ft SW swell with a 13-second period and cross-off wind at 19 mph, combined energy screaming at 7025 (very strong). It’s a beast. The afternoon drops to 13ft with offshore wind, and 5269 combined energy (very strong). This is big, heavy, and powerful—not for the faint-hearted, but for those who can handle it, it’s epic.

We then have a bit of a lull. Saturday the 18th is blown out on the afternoon with choppy cross-onshore conditions and 7ft swell. Sunday the 19th offers a tiny glassy 3ft in the afternoon - more of a longboard cruiser than a proper session. Monday and Tuesday are small and unremarkable.

Then we hit the second standout: Wednesday the 22nd morning. A 8ft SSW groundswell, glassy, with a 14-second period and 2152 combined energy (strong). The wind is glass, the water is clean. This is a morning to call in sick for. The afternoon shifts to a gentle offshore and stays clean.

Thursday the 23rd afternoon brings a 10ft SW swell with a 15-second period – very long period groundswell – and cross-off wind, combined energy hitting 5944 (very strong). That’s a serious session, but that long period can make a reef like Tubes stand up and stand up hard. Experts only, and it will be proper.

The final true standout is Sunday the 26th. The morning shows 13ft from the SSW with a massive 16-second period and glassy wind. Combined energy is a whopping 12636 (very strong to extreme). That’s exceptional for expert surfers. This is the kind of day you tell stories about. It will be huge, clean, and powerful, but if you are not dialed in, you have no business being out there.

So, to sum it up: the first week has some clean but average days, with Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th being the real deep-water sessions for the brave. The second week builds to a crescendo, with Wednesday the 22nd as your clean, powerful intermediate-to-advanced day, and Sunday the 26th as the absolute monster for the experts. The crowds at Tubes are “sometimes” an issue, so on those standout mornings, expect some company, but it will be worth it.

Rusty.

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