Vredenberg Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’re looking at a tricky forecast for Vredenberg Point. The overall pattern is a lot of swell, but with persistent strong cross-shore winds that are going to mess up the quality for most of the next two weeks.

The good news is there’s a fair bit of groundswell on the cards, coming in from the SW pushing moderate to strong combined wave energy (values from 435 all the way up to a massive 5329). The water is sitting at 56°F, and since it’s 4°F colder than average, it’s much colder than we’re used to for this time of year, so you’ll definitely want the thick rubber.

For the first week, it’s a real battle. Through Monday 14th and into the start of the week, we’ve got some 4ft to 4ft SW groundswell, but it’s hammered by a fresh N to NNW breeze that’s keeping the surface clean but cross-off, so it’s marginal at best. Tuesday 15th afternoon sees a big jump in period to 16 seconds, a proper long-period groundswell, but again the cross-shore wind kills it. By Wednesday 16th, the swell pumps up to 10ft, but with a 25 to 31 mph cross-shore from the SSE and S, it’s a total write-off for a paddle board - that’s kite-surfing territory. Thursday 17th morning is interesting: a clean-looking 10ft SW swell, but the data says it’s too big for this break, so only for the experts if anyone even tries.

We hit a real blank run from Thursday afternoon through to the end of the next week. From Thursday 17th all the way to Friday 25th, the winds remain too strong and cross-shore, or it’s cross-onshore and lumpy, with the swell fluctuating but rarely offering clean conditions. It’s a long stretch of poor quality.

The one true standout lands on Sunday 27th September. It’s a day later in the range so a little less certain, but it looks like a reward for waiting. We’ve got a clean 6ft SW groundswell with a solid 13-second period and combined energy of 1277 (moderate). The wind goes glassy – completely calm – in the morning. The forecast calls for “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. This is the session to circle. The swell direction is right in the optimum window for Vredenberg Point, and with zero wind, it’s going to be clean and lined up. This is a point break, so that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely and offer proper waves. Just be aware, crowds are possible here on a day like this.

Monday 28th also looks promising with a lighter wind and glassy conditions in the morning, offering a smaller 4ft SW swell. It’s a good follow-up day to stretch the legs.

So, to boil it down: Don’t bother for the bulk of the next 11 days unless you’re chasing big, messy stuff. The only green light is the morning of Sunday 27th, and maybe Monday 28th.

Stay patient.
Rusty.

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