Vredenberg Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Vredenberg Point has on offer over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a bit of a wild ride ahead, with some serious groundswell on the way, but also plenty of days where it’s just too messy or too big to get out there for a proper paddle. The first few days are a bit of a write-off, so let’s get into it.

The water is sitting at 57.4°F, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year – about 2.7°F off the long-term average. You’ll want the thicker rubber, that’s for sure.

We’re starting off quiet, with Wednesday the 5th offering nothing but lumpy, cross-shore chop from a fresh north wind. A 4.6ft SW swell with a 16-second period is out there, but the energy is moderate (1452) and the conditions just aren’t clean. Skip it. That afternoon, the swell bumps up to 7.5ft but the wind goes fully cross, so it’s still a no-go.

Thursday the 6th sees the swell jump to 11.5ft from the WSW, with a 13-second period. The morning looks clean with a light cross-offshore SE breeze, but this is already pushing past that 8ft mark, so it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The energy is strong at 3785. It’s a big, powerful wave. The afternoon gets worse with a fresh SSE breeze making it lumpy. The same story carries through Friday and Saturday – the swell stays solid, in the 10ft range, with strong wave energy (up to 4493 on Friday arvo), but the winds are either cross-on or just too strong to keep it clean. Friday morning is the pick of this bunch with a light SE cross-off and clean conditions, but the 10ft swell is still a lot of water. It’s expert-only territory.

Sunday the 9th is a complete mess. A near-gale from the SSE with 14.8ft of SSW swell (energy 5020) makes it unsurfable, more like a washing machine. Monday isn’t much better – still cross and messy with 6.6ft surf. We’re in a bit of a blank stretch here, just waiting for things to line up.

Finally, on Tuesday the 11th, things start to settle. The swell drops to a more manageable 5.9ft from the SSW, with a 13-second period, and a cross-off ESE breeze keeps it clean in the morning. It’s still a bit marginal, but it’s the first hint of a wave worth paddling for. The energy is weak-moderate (1202).

Wednesday the 12th is when it starts to get interesting. A 4.6ft WSW swell arrives with a very long 18-second period, and a light northerly offshore breeze makes for glassy conditions. This is the kind of long-period groundswell that will wrap beautifully around a point. The energy is moderate (1345). This is clean, but the swell size is modest. Thursday the 13th is the real standout of this run. A 6.6ft WSW swell with a 15-second period, and a light ENE offshore wind, means crisp, clean, powerful waves. The energy is up to 1779, and this is a far better prospect. The point will be handling that swell direction perfectly, and with the offshore breeze, it’s going to be a session to remember. This is your best bet in the first week.

Friday the 14th is another good one, with 5.6ft of WSW swell and a gentle offshore ENE breeze in the morning. Clean, and with the period holding at 13 seconds, it’ll be a fun, shapey wave, though slightly down in size from Thursday. After that, the weekend softens up. Saturday and Sunday the 15th and 16th see the swell drop right off to under 5ft. It’s not going to be doing much.

We get a few smaller days early next week, but the real news is the second major pulse. From Monday the 17th, the energy starts to build again, culminating on Tuesday the 18th with a solid 10-11.5ft WSW swell and strong energy (3194 in the morning). The winds are mostly cross or onshore, so it’s not going to be clean. And then Thursday the 20th, we’re looking at a serious beast – a 16.4ft SW swell with a huge energy reading of 10205. That’s a true XXL event, and it’s going to be a washing machine with the cross/onshore wind. That’s definitely not for paddling; it’s more for the chargers with a jetski if anything.

So, to wrap it up. The first few days are a write-off. The standout of the whole run is Thursday the 13th – a solid, clean 6.6ft WSW groundswell with light offshore winds. That’s your best chance for a proper surf. The second week’s big swell on the 18th and 20th is too big and messy for a point break like this. You could be looking at a bit of a lull after Friday the 14th until things kick off again around the 18th. Don’t get too excited about the long-range stuff – it’s looking promising but you know how that

Read more