Big Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, the ocean’s got a pulse, but it’s a messy one. We’re looking at a stretch where the surf is going to be pretty ordinary for a while, with a few serious standouts further down the line. Patience is the name of the game here.

First up, the next few days are pretty grim. Tuesday afternoon is lumpy, cross-onshore junk with a weak 4ft of SW swell. The wave energy is sitting at 1241, which is moderate, but it’s wasted on the chop. Honestly, you’re not missing anything. Wednesday through to Monday the 23rd are all marginal – clean enough at times, but the swell is small and the tide seems to be working against us. It’s that frustrating “could be, but probably won’t be” kind of window. The energy dips into the hundreds (down to 336 on Monday afternoon), and it’s just not worth paddling out for the scraps. There’s a brief window on Friday the 18th afternoon with a fresh offshore, but the swell is only 5ft, it’s short-period stuff at 11 seconds, and the energy is still under a thousand. Not enough push.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The first real standout is Thursday the 24th of September. The swell is going to absolutely kick in. We’re talking a solid 13ft of southwest groundswell with a 14-second period. The combined energy is a massive 5810 – that’s strong, and it’s going to make Big Bay (Big-Bay) feel alive. But look, it’s a big one. At 13ft, this is strictly for the experts. The morning sees a 25 km/h cross-offshore wind, which will keep it somewhat clean, but this is a serious, powerful slab. The afternoon drops to 12ft with the energy still over 4864. This is a “stand on the bluffs and watch” day unless you’ve got serious balls.

Friday the 25th is the pick of the bunch for the experienced crew. The swell backs off to a still-chunky 8ft in the morning, with the same long-period SW groundswell. The wind drops to a slight air, making for clean, glassy conditions. The energy is a healthy 2174. This is the one. It’s got size, it’s got power, and it’s clean. Definitely a standout for the experts.

Then it goes a bit weird. Saturday the 26th throws a curveball – the swell jumps back up to 13ft in the afternoon with a 15-second period and energy at 6926, but the wind turns cross-onshore. It’s going to be a big, messy, bumpy beast. Not the one. Same for Sunday – still solid 10ft but with a cross-shore wind. It’s powerful but lumpy.

But then, just when you think it’s over, Monday the 28th morning delivers another gem. The swell has dropped to a still-very-respectable 8ft, the period is 13 seconds, and the wind is a clean 15 km/h cross-offshore. The energy is 1671, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is another big, clean day at Big Bay. The afternoon backs off a bit.

Finally, we get a glassy morning on Tuesday the 29th. The swell is a more manageable 5ft, the period is 11 seconds, and we’ve got glassy conditions with a slight air. It’s a much smaller, user-friendly day, and the energy is only 613. A dawn patrol for the longboarders, maybe.

After that, it fades off into mush and onshore junk for the 30th, so we’re done by then. The water temp is sitting at 55°F, which is 5°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a big deal. You’re going to want the 5/4 and booties.

So, looking at the whole window, Friday the 25th and Monday the 28th stand out as the best on offer – both with serious size, long-period SW swell, and decent winds. But these are for experienced surfers only. The long-period swell at a beach break can make it close out, so you need to pick your bank. The 24th is for experts only – that’s a life-changing kind of size. Everything else is either too small, too messy, or too gnarly.

That’s the story. Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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