Big Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of days are going to test your patience if you’re chasing waves. We’ve got a rough start with a big, messy swell and a strong breeze that’s going to make things tough. Honestly, for Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th, I’d probably find something else to do. It’s big, it’s raw, and the wind is just going to chop it all up. Not worth the beating.

The first real window where things start to clean up is Tuesday the 11th. The wind eases off and turns offshore, and that makes a huge difference. We’re looking at waves in the 5.2ft to 6.6ft range, still with that solid SSW groundswell. The energy is moderate, around 1200, but it’s going to be clean. This is where you want to be a competent surfer, not a beginner – the swell is still pushing a bit.

Wednesday the 12th is the standout of this first week. The wind goes glassy in the afternoon, and the swell fills in with a longer period, hitting 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, sitting around 2000. The waves will be around 5.9ft and have some serious push. This is the kind of day that reminds you why we do this. It’s a point break day, not a beach break, because that long period stuff can straighten out on the sand.

Then we get a bit of a lull from Thursday the 13th through to Sunday the 16th. The swell drops, the wind gets a bit messy, and the energy fades. It’s not terrible, but it’s not exciting. If you’re desperate, there’s stuff to ride, but it’s not going to be memorable.

Now, hold on, because the second week starts to rumble. Monday the 17th sees a big pulse of swell, but the wind is onshore, and it’s going to be a bit of a mess. The energy is cranking at 4318, but the quality won’t be there. This is where you might see the kite surfers having a field day, because the paddle surf is going to be challenging.

The real gold is on Tuesday the 18th. The wind swings around to a cross-offshore, the swell is a solid 9.8ft to 11.5ft, and the energy is massive, over 3500. This is big, powerful surf. It's for experienced surfers only. This is the heavy one. The water is going to be moving a lot.

The rest of that week gets blown out and messy. The wind gets really strong on the 19th, and the quality just tanks. We’re looking at a run of poor-to-marginal days.

But don't write it off. The last few days of the window, the 20th and 21st, are looking promising. The 21st is another potential standout. The wind is light and offshore, the swell is back up to a solid 11.5ft, and the period is a strong 13 seconds. The energy is huge, over 4000. This could be a day for the books. It’s a long way out, so we can’t be certain, but the signs are good.

The 23rd has a nice glassy morning with a smaller, cleaner swell, perfect for a more relaxed session.

So, to keep it simple: If you want the best waves, circle Wednesday the 12th and Tuesday the 18th. The 21st is a promise of something special, but we’ll have to wait and see. It’s not going to be easy all the way through, but there’s definitely some gold in there.

The water is running a bit cold for this time of year, about 3.8°F colder than normal, so a decent wetsuit is a must.

Alright, I’ll catch you in the water.

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