Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

We’ve got a solid run of swell coming in at Jacobs Bay, but it kicks off proper on Saturday the 11th of July. The first few days are building, but the real standout is going to be from the 23rd through the 25th. That’s the sweet spot.

Right now, the water is sitting at 14°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent wetsuit.

Friday afternoon is a write-off. The swell is 8ft from the SSW, but with a cross wind and a cross-chop making it ugly, plus the combined energy is a strong 2446. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday the 11th morning is where it gets interesting. The swell drops to 8ft from the SSW, but the wind goes light cross-offshore and the surf is clean. The energy is still strong at 1766. This is for experienced surfers only, as it’s a solid size. Saturday afternoon sees the wind switch cross and it gets a bit messy.

Sunday the 12th morning is a beauty. Wind is offshore from the ENE at only 5 km/h, swell is 6ft from the SSW, and it’s clean. The energy is moderate at 898. This is a good session for a wider range of surfers. The wind goes glassy on Monday and Tuesday mornings, but the swell drops to under 3ft, so you’ll be on a longboard or a funboard at best.

Then things wake up. Wednesday the 15th morning has a surprise: a 3ft swell from the WSW, but with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is 675. It’s clean with cross-offshore wind. This will be small but perfectly shaped, likely a bit inconsistent.

Wednesday afternoon the swell jumps back to 8ft from the SW, but the wind goes cross and the chop comes in. The energy is a massive 3148. Thursday the 16th is a full-on, expert-only day. The swell hits 10ft from the SW, with strong energy of 3436 in the morning and 2699 in the afternoon. The wind is light cross, but the forecast flat-out says it’s too big for this break. Unless you’re a charger, give it a miss.

We get a bit of a lull from Friday the 17th through the 22nd, with some clean mornings but mostly smaller, inconsistent swell. The energy drops into the low hundreds to mid hundreds. It’s not bad, but it’s not pumping.

Now, the true standout: from Thursday the 23rd of July through Saturday the 25th. This is the best run on offer. Thursday the 23rd morning: 8ft from the SW, light cross-offshore wind from the SE, clean, and the combined energy is a strong 2532. This is excellent for experienced surfers. Friday the 24th morning is similar: 8ft from the SW, light cross-offshore, clean, with 1645 energy. Saturday the 25th morning: 7ft from the SW, clean with cross-offshore wind, and 1327 energy. All three mornings are mint. The afternoons see the wind pick up and swing cross, making it choppier, so hit the dawn patrol.

Because Jacobs Bay is a beginner-friendly break, any of these days over 5ft will be a bit much for learners. The 8ft days are for experts only. Remember, the long period of 13 seconds on these swells means the waves will have good shape and power, but there will be longer lulls between sets. It’s a point break setup, so it should handle the long-period swell well.

If you’re looking for a solid, clean swell with a bit of energy, the 23rd to the 25th is the window. The 12th morning is also a great, more manageable option. Keep an eye on the wind, mornings are the go.

Rusty.

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