Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up at Jacobs Bay over the next couple of weeks.

First off, the water is sitting at 56°, which is a good few degrees colder than what you’d normally expect for this time of year. That’s a notable chill, so grab a thicker wetsuit.

We’re looking at a classic week ahead: a bit of a slow start, then a beautiful window of clean surf mid-week, followed by a massive pulse of swell that’s going to be way too big for this spot.

The first real go is Tuesday afternoon, July 14th. I know it’s a bit of a wait, but it’s a glassy, clear afternoon with a tiny 3ft W swell, period around 10 seconds. The energy is weak (263), but with offshore wind and a clean, glassy surface, it’ll be a fun little session for beginners. The wind is light and offshore, so it’s going to be smooth.

Now, Wednesday morning, July 15th, is the standout. The wind is dead calm, glassy as it gets. That 5ft SW swell is a proper groundswell with a 16-second period, packing a ton of energy (1161). That’s your classic, long-period groundswell – beautiful, lined-up waves, but they’ll be breaking a bit straight at a beach break. For experienced surfers, this is the best you’ll get. The swell is a solid 5ft, clean, and the crowd is only “sometimes” an issue, so you might have it to yourself for a bit. That’s the one to set your alarm for.

Thursday morning, the 16th, is still good. An 8ft SW swell, with a 13-second period, and a clean cross-offshore wind. The energy is huge (2494), but the size is starting to push it. It’s still manageable for experienced crew, but it’s a step up in power.

Friday and Saturday see the swell drop back a bit, and the winds get more cross-shore, so the quality fades. Friday morning (17th) has a 7ft SW swell and clean cross-off wind, but it’s not quite the same.

Then, from the 21st of July onwards, the whole game changes. We’re talking about a major swell event. From Tuesday the 21st all the way through to the 29th, the swell is consistently over 12ft, peaking at 16ft on the 25th. The combined energy is astronomical (over 8000 at times). This is not for paddle surfing. It’s a big, powerful, dangerous swell. Even with good wind, it’s just too big for Jacobs Bay. Honestly, if you’ve got a kite, this setup looks more interesting for that than a surfboard. The size and the long-period groundswell (15 seconds) will make it a washing machine on the beach. This is strictly for experts with big boards and a lot of respect, or just leave it.

So, to wrap it up: get on it Wednesday morning, July 15th. That’s the one. The second week is a total write-off for a normal paddle session.

Rusty.

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