Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got a look at the surf ahead for Jacobs Bay. The overall picture is a bit of a mixed bag, with some real potential but also a lot of wind and messy conditions to sift through. The water’s sitting at 13° which is a solid 3° colder than it should be for this time of year. That’s a big chill, so a thick wetsuit is a must.

The first real chance for a wave kicks off on Tuesday morning, September 8th. It’s not a huge swell, just 4 feet from the SSW with a 12-second period, but the wind is glassy out of the ESE at 3 mph. That’s clean, smooth, and perfect for a beginner’s wave. The combined swell energy is moderate (597), so there’s enough push to get you moving. It’s a fairly consistent break, so you’ll be able to pick off a few without a crowd. Just keep an eye on the water temp.

Tuesday afternoon turns nasty though. The wind swings to the S at 12 mph, cross-shore, and the surf drops off. The rest of the week gets rough. Wednesday and Thursday are all cross-shore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions. The swell gets bigger on Thursday morning, 8 feet from the SW with a 15-second period, but the wind is 12 mph from the S, making it a mess. The combined energy jumps to a strong 2237, but with that cross-chop, it’s more of a battle than a joy. This is where the break might be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Friday morning, September 11th, shows a glimmer of hope. The swell is 6 feet from the WSW at 12 seconds, and the wind is cross-offshore at 12 mph, keeping things clean. The energy is still strong (1909), but the conditions are a step up. Saturday morning, September 12th, is similar, with a 6 feet SW swell at 14 seconds and a clean cross-off wind from the SSE at 18 mph. The energy is very strong (3703), but that wind is getting fresher, making it a bit of a push. It’s marginal, but it’s the best of a rough week.

Then we hit a gap. From Sunday, September 13th, through to the end of the week, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-shore, the swell is either too small or too big, and the conditions are poor. There’s a brief window on Monday morning, September 14th, with a 4 feet swell from the SW, but the wind is cross and the energy is moderate (660). It’s not worth the paddle.

The real standout comes on Saturday, September 19th. The morning is glassy, with a light N wind at 3 mph, and a 7 feet swell from the SW at 12 seconds. That’s a solid size for a beginner spot, but the wave comment says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. The combined energy is moderate (1223), and the conditions are clean, smooth, and glassy. This is a true standout. The swell direction is a good match for the optimum WSW, and the crowds are only sometimes there, so you might get a few waves to yourself. It’s a bit of a wait, but mark that Saturday morning in your calendar.

After that, the swell gets too big. Sunday, September 20th, is 13 feet from the SW, and the wind is onshore. That’s too big for this break, and it’s only for experts. The energy is extreme (6564). The final week has a few more mornings with cross-off winds and 6 feet to 6 feet swell, but the wind is always fresh, and the conditions are just okay. The long-range standouts are promising but less certain.

To sum it up: Tuesday morning, September 8th, is a nice, clean beginner wave, but Saturday morning, September 19th, is the absolute best on offer. Glassy, clean, and a solid 7 feet from the SW. Don’t miss it.

Rusty.

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