Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long look at what’s ahead for Jacobs Bay. We’ve got a solid run of south-west groundswell on the cards, but the timing and wind are going to be everything. The water temp is sitting right about average for the time of year, nothing freaky, so just your standard wetsuit.

The first decent window I’m looking at kicks off Saturday morning, the 15th. We’ve got a clean 6ft swell from the WSW, 14-second period, and a light cross-off breeze from the SE. The wave energy is moderate (1230). This is clean, good fun for experienced surfers, but on the smaller side. The afternoon gets wrecked by a building south wind and a cross-shore chop, so make the most of the early.

Sunday the 16th is a write-off, I’m afraid. The swell pushes up to 7ft, but the wind is cross-on for the whole day, making things messy. Monday morning the 17th is the real standout. The swell jumps to 10ft from the WSW, 13-second period, and the wind goes glassy. That’s proper power with wave energy reading strong (2832). But honestly, 10ft is big, and the guidance says it’s too big for this break. This one is for the experienced crew only, and even then, it’s a heavy session. The afternoon turns to mush with a strong cross-shore.

We go through a bit of a sloppy patch mid-week. Tuesday the 18th, Wednesday the 19th, and Thursday the 20th all have decent swell size (6ft to 7ft) but the wind is either cross or cross-off with moderate to fresh breezes, creating lumpy, bumpy conditions. The wave energy stays moderate (between 1088 and 2153). Not great for a clean ride.

Friday morning the 21st is another one to pencil in. The swell drops to 6ft from the SW with a 12-second period, but that light cross-off from the SSE cleans it up nicely. Wave energy is moderate (1078). It’s a clean, cruisy session for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets a bit onshore and choppy.

Now, the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd gets wild. Saturday the 22nd is a total no-go with 25 mph onshore winds, rain, and a massive 10ft to 12ft swell. The wave energy is through the roof (3349 to 4606). That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. Sunday the 23rd cleans up with a cross-off wind, but the swell is 10ft to 12ft again. Too big for Jacobs Bay, and the energy is extreme (3798 to 5558). Another one for experienced surfers only, and it’s a beast.

Monday the 24th brings a welcome change – a smaller 6ft S swell, 11-second period, with a clean offshore breeze from the E. Wave energy is moderate (1771). This is a proper, clean, fun morning for experienced surfers. The wind plays the game.

We then get a bit of a mixed bag. Tuesday the 25th has a massive 18-second period, 8ft SW swell, but 31 mph NNE winds make it a mess. The afternoon cleans up with a cross-off, but the swell is still powerful. Mid-week, Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th, the wind is cross-on, ruining the shape on a good 7ft to 8ft swell. Friday the 28th is blown out by strong southerlies.

The final call comes on Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th. Saturday morning is a beauty – 7ft SW swell, 12-second period, light cross-off from the SSE, and clear conditions. Wave energy is moderate (1433). Clean and punchy for the experienced. Sunday the 30th is even better: 8ft from the SW, 14 seconds, and a gentle cross-off breeze. Wave energy is moderate (2460). That’s a clean, powerful morning, and a solid way to wrap up the run.

The best of the best? No question, Monday morning the 17th for the sheer power and glass, but it’s a big one. For a cleaner, more manageable session, I’d say Friday the 21st morning or Sunday the 30th morning. Keep your eyes on the wind, because when it’s clean, Jacobs Bay has some fun.

Rusty.

Read more