Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let's have a look what's on the menu for Jacobs Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Look, it's a rough start. We've got a massive pulse of energy coming in for the next few days, but it's just too much for this spot. The water temp is about what you'd expect for this time of year, nothing weird there. There's a staggering 5447 (combined energy) swell roaring in Wednesday morning with a 10ft south-west swell, but that's just way too big and messy for a beginner's wave. The wind is a strong cross-off, so the face might be clean, but the size is the big problem. Wednesday afternoon is still solid at 7ft, but the score tells you it's not happening. Thursday keeps the trend going with 6ft in the morning and then another 10ft pulse in the afternoon – same story, too much grunt.

Honestly, the first weekend isn't much better. Friday and Saturday both have surf in the 5ft to 5ft range with a moderate to fresh breeze, but the conditions are just "marginal" at best. It's not totally blown out, but it's not clean enough to get excited about. We're looking at a gap of pretty poor options until we get to Monday the 21st. That's a long time to stare at a flat, messy ocean.

Alright, here's the standout of the whole forecast. Monday morning, the 21st of September. That's your window. The swell drops to a super manageable 4ft from the west-south-west, with a 12-second period – that's proper groundswell, meaning it'll wrap in nicely and have some shape. But the real magic is the wind: glassy. Absolutely dead flat, 3 mph from the south-south-east. It's going to be clean as a whistle. The energy is a moderate 569. For a spot like Jacobs Bay, that's the goldilocks zone. Keep an eye on the crowd situation though – it can get "sometimes" busy, and on a morning like this, it'll be a popular choice.

After that, it goes a bit ordinary again. Tuesday the 22nd is small and choppy. Wednesday the 23rd is even smaller with a howling near-gale wind in the afternoon. Then we get another one of those massive swells hitting on Thursday the 24th – 10ft again, but this time with a moderate offshore breeze. It's clean, but the sheer size (2608 combined energy) means this is strictly for experts only. It'll be a freight train. Friday the 25th is still chunky at 7ft, but the wind is cross-onshore, which will chop it up.

The second week fades out pretty quietly. There's a couple of sessions worth a look, like Monday the 28th morning with a 4ft south-west swell and clean conditions, but it's weak and inconsistent. The last real note is the very end of the forecast, on Thursday the 1st of October. It's tiny, 2ft, but glassy again with a super long 16-second period from the south-west. It'll be a long wait for a set, but if you're a logger, might be a laugh.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a tale of two problems – too big or just average. The absolute best bet is Monday the 21st of September morning. Get in the water then. And if you're game for a big, clean, expert-only wave, Thursday the 24th of September morning will be a sight to see.

Rusty.

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