Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Jacobs Bay over the next couple of weeks.

First thing to know – the water’s a bit nippy at 57°F, which is a touch colder than what you’d usually expect for this time of year. Not a major shock, but you’ll want a decent wetsuit.

The window kicks off proper on Thursday afternoon, 23 July. The morning’s a write-off with a lumpy 7ft cross-shore mess, but the afternoon cleans right up. Suddenly it’s glassy, the wind drops to near nothing out of the SSW, and we’ve got a solid 6ft SW groundswell at a nice 12 seconds. The combined energy is pumping at 1236 – that’s moderate to strong oomph. For a beginner-friendly break, this is a total gem. This is the standout for the whole outlook.

Friday the 24th serves up serious size, with the morning seeing 12ft of SW swell at a long 14 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving – combined energy is 4968, which is strong. The wind is light and cross-off, and it’s clean, but 12ft is too big for this break. This is purely for very experienced locals who know the sandbanks. It stays big through the afternoon at 10ft, but the southerly wind picks up and puts a cross-chop on it.

Saturday morning the 25th settles back to a manageable 6ft of SW groundswell, period at 13 seconds, with clean, cross-off conditions. The energy is still solid at 1904. It’s a good, proper surfable wave for those who can handle a bit of size. Saturday afternoon gets a little lumpy, and Sunday is similar – clean morning sessions with 7ft swell and a light cross-off, but the afternoons get chopped by a moderate south wind.

Monday the 27th brings a very long-period SW swell at 16 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and at 5ft it’s got some serious push. Combined energy is 2223. The catch? That long period can make a beach break like Jacobs Bay close out a bit straight. It’s clean enough, but the data calls it marginal. Tuesday the 28th is another day where the swell gets too big again – 10ft in the morning, combined energy at 5185 – too much grunt for a safe session here.

Now Wednesday the 29th is a beauty. The morning is flat calm – glassy, zero wind, a 7ft SW swell at 14 seconds. Wave energy is 2435. That’s a solid, clean wave. The afternoon stays glassy with a drop to 5ft. If you can get out, that’s your next best option after Thursday afternoon.

The first week of August sees the swell drop away. Thursday the 30th has small 5ft glassy surf in the morning, but energy is down to 711. Friday the 31st is small but clean with a 5ft SW swell. By Saturday the 1st of August, we’re down to 4ft and glassy – fun for a longboard but nothing special.

Then there’s a gap of a few days where the surf goes flat and weak. Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd are poor, with small swell and messy winds. Tuesday the 4th sees another size spike to 10ft, but it’s cross-on and again, too big for the spot.

Wednesday the 5th is messy with strong cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions – a write-off. Thursday the 6th has a monster 13ft WSW swell at a 17-second period. Combined energy is a massive 7635, but that is way, way too big. You’d need a jet ski and a death wish. Friday the 7th is still too big and onshore.

So to wrap it up: the absolute best session is the Thursday 23 July afternoon – glassy, clean, 6ft SW. That’s the one. The Wednesday 29 July sessions are also top-tier if you can get out midweek. Everything else is either too big, too small, or too chopped. And for the beginners? Thursday 23 afternoon and the glassy mornings of the 29th and 30th are your window.

Rusty

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