Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's take a hard look at what Jacobs Bay’s got cooking over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, this forecast is a mixed bag. For a break that's a fairly consistent beginner-friendly spot, we’re looking at a whole lot of mediocrity and some real ugly conditions before we get to anything worth paddling out for. The water is sitting at 57°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – you’ll feel that nip.

Right off the bat, for the next several days, it’s pretty grim. From Wednesday the 9th right through to Sunday the 12th, the wind is a constant cross-shore, mostly a fresh S or SE breeze. The swell is out of the WSW or SW, but the quality is just poor. There’s a solid pulse coming in, with moderate to strong wave energy (starting around 339), but the wind is making a mess of things. It’s not even worth looking at until Saturday afternoon.

Saturday the 12th is where we see our first real glimmer. The afternoon brings a shift to a SE wind going cross-offshore, cleaning things up. The swell is 6ft from the SW with a nice long 14-second period. That clean condition is a major positive. The combined swell energy is pumping hard at 3704, so there's serious push behind it. For a beginner spot, this is on the bigger side, but the clean conditions make it your best bet in this first week.

Then, the forecast throws a curveball. Wednesday the 16th sees a proper monster. The morning has a 13ft SW swell with 14-second periods. The combined swell energy is a massive 8482. That is way, way too big for Jacobs Bay. Only experts should even think about it, and even then, the wind is a fresh cross-shore making it lumpy. It’s a no-go for the majority.

After that blows through, we get a few okay mornings on Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th with clean cross-off winds and 4ft to 5ft SW swell, but the energy drops off a cliff. Then there’s another gap of average, windy conditions until we hit the standout of the entire outlook.

Thursday the 24th morning. This is the one to circle. The wind is glassy – dead calm – out of the SW. The swell is a long-period 4ft groundswell from the SW with a period of 16 seconds. The conditions are glassy, and the wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions". The combined energy is only 835, so it’s not a thumper, but for Jacobs Bay with perfect conditions and that clean, long-period line, this is a dream session. It’s a beginner-friendly size with world-class conditions.

To sum it up, you’ve got a lot of average days to get through for one clean session on the 12th, and one glassy gem on the 24th. Plan around those.

Rusty.

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