Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Alright, let's cut through the noise and look at the next couple of weeks. We've got a solid run of south-west groundswell on the way, but the first few days are all about size. It's not a quiet spell, but it's a tricky one because the waves are going to be too big for the Bay at times, and when it's not too big, the wind's often messing things up. There are some good windows in there though, especially mid-period, so don't write it off.

Let’s break it down. The first real surf on offer kicks off Friday afternoon, the 7th. Jacobs Bay (West Coast) is looking at a strong 12ft of SW swell, with a long 14-second period. That's a lot of energy for a beginner-friendly spot, and with the combined energy reading a hefty 4749, this is one for experienced heads only. The wind is a cross-shore SSW at 12 mph, which isn't perfect, and water temps are sitting at 57°, which is about 3° colder than the usual for this time of year. It’s a bit chilly out there.

Saturday the 8th is a mixed bag. The morning sees the swell drop to 8ft with a lighter SW cross-shore breeze, but the conditions are marginal. The afternoon brings a better 12ft pulse with a clean WSW offshore wind, but the size is again too big for this break. You’d need to be pretty keen and experienced to tackle that.

Sunday the 9th is a write-off for the Bay. The swell is still too big, sitting at 12ft, and we’ve got strong SSE winds blowing at 25-28 mph. It’s big and it’s messy, and while the winds are cross-offshore, that strength will chop it up. This is more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle day, to be honest.

Monday the 10th sees the size start to back off, down to 8ft in the morning, but the winds are still fresh and onshore-ish, making for messy conditions. The afternoon drops further to 6ft but the quality is still questionable.

Now, the good part. From Tuesday the 11th through to Thursday the 13th, things line up. Tuesday morning you’ve got 7ft of SSW swell at 13 seconds, with a gentle offshore ESE breeze. This is where it starts to get clean, and the energy is moderate at 1562. It's a good, surfable size. Tuesday afternoon stays nice with 6ft and clean conditions.

Wednesday the 12th is a gem. A long-period WSW swell, 6-6ft, with a period of 18-19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The winds are light and cross-offshore, keeping it glassy. For a beach break, that long period can sometimes make waves close out a bit, but the size is manageable. Thursday the 13th pushes up a touch, with a 8ft SW swell at 17 seconds in the morning. This is the standout of the week, with clean, offshore winds and moderate energy. It’s a good one for anyone with a bit of experience, as it’s pushing the limits for beginners.

Friday the 14th drops off again with a fresh NNE wind making things less appealing, and the weekend of the 15th-16th is mostly back to marginal conditions with choppy cross-shore winds. There’s a brief glassy window on Saturday morning the 15th with a clean 7ft WSW swell, but it’s a short-lived opportunity.

The second week is a bit of a downer. From Monday the 17th through to Thursday the 20th, we’ve got a run of smaller, messier swells. The energy is weak, winds are mostly cross or cross-on, and the quality is frankly poor. It’s the kind of spell where the Bay just goes flat and messy.

Then the forecast closes out with a bang, but a dangerous one. On Friday the 21st, a big W swell arrives, jumping to 15ft with an 11-second period. The combined energy is strong at 4366 in the morning, and it gets bigger. Then Saturday the 22nd turns serious: a 20ft SW swell in the morning, with an enormous energy reading of 21224. This is huge, dangerous surf. It’s too big for this break, and only for the most extreme experts, if anyone. Get the cameras out, but stay on the sand.

Overall, the standout window is definitely Thursday the 13th, with Wednesday morning a close second. If you can, get out there for those long-period, clean groundswell sessions. The rest is either too big, too messy, or just flat.

Rusty.

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