Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks at Jacobs Bay. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down day by day.

First off, the water's running a touch colder than normal for this time of year, around 57.4°F with a -2.2°F anomaly, so it’s not a huge shock, but you’ll want the rubber.

The opening salvos are pretty average, nothing to write home about. Sunday the 2nd is a write-off with light cross-onshore junk and weak, short-period swell. Same story for Monday afternoon. There is a clean-ish window Monday morning with a bit more size (1.6ft SW at 13s) and light cross-offshore ESE wind – that’s about as good as it gets for the first few days. It’s smallish but clean and rideable.

Then it gets messy. Tuesday through the middle of next week is dominated by onshores, fresh breezes, and building swell that’s just too raw and crumbly. Wednesday the 5th brings a strong pulse of groundswell (1.6ft-2.6ft SW at 15-16s, with the energy jumping to 1506-2544) but it’s crossed up by NNW wind. Not great.

Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th are the real kicker. Swell sizes jump to a solid 3.3ft from the SW with a period of 13-14s, and the combined energy is pulsing between 3000-3504. The wind turns cross-off from the SSE, which would be perfect... except this is Jacobs Bay, a beginner-friendly spot, and 3.3ft is way over the top. This is expert-only territory and honestly, for most, it’s a “watch from the beach” type day. The break is exposed and will be raw.

Saturday the 8th is still heavy – 2.7ft in the morning with clean conditions, but the afternoon sees a jump to 3.8ft with onshore WNW wind at 9 mph. That’s not paddle surfing; that’s maybe kite-surfing territory. Energy is huge (3675).

Sunday the 9th is blown out with fresh onshores. Monday the 10th has a strong S wind, but the swell drops to 1.5ft – it’s just not clean or organized.

The 11th and 12th are another massive pulse – we’re talking 3.8ft to 4.4ft from the SSW, with energy readings of 3411 to 6061! The wind is cross-off from the SSE which would be pristine, but again, this is far too big for Jacobs Bay. Way too much water moving. Experts only, and even then, it’s a beast.

After that, the ocean takes a breather. Thursday the 13th morning settles back to 1.6ft from the S at 11s with light cross-off winds, but the afternoon gets bumpy.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday the 14th morning. Light offshore E wind at 6 mph, clean as a whistle, with a solid 1.8ft WSW groundswell. The period is a long 16 seconds and the energy is a solid 1582. That’s the pick of the whole window – proper groundswell, clean conditions, and a size that’s challenging but doable for the more experienced. The wave quality should be excellent.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th keep some decent SW swell (2.0ft-2.3ft at 15s), but the winds are stronger and more cross-shore, making it average. Monday the 17th has clean conditions but the swell is a touch smaller and the wind starts to pick up again.

So, bottom line: if you’re a beginner, you want Monday the 3rd morning or maybe Thursday the 13th. For the more experienced crew, Friday the 14th morning is the one to circle on the calendar. Everything else is either too big, too messy, or too average. Keep an eye on the forecast – that Friday swell could be really special.

Stay salty.

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