Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Well, we’ve got a proper run of swell heading our way, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The main story is a big, powerful south-west groundswell that rolls in to start, and it’s going to be a handful. The water is sitting at 58°, which is a bit colder than what we’d normally expect for July, so a decent 4/3mm steamer is a must.

The standout is hands down the Friday morning (24th July). We’ve got a chunky 12 ft SW swell, period at a tasty 14 seconds, and the wind is glassy off-shore from the ESE. The combined energy is massive (5161), so there’s a heap of juice in the water. The catch? This is Jacobs Bay, a beginner-friendly break, and 12 ft is way too big for the average punter. This is experts only. The waves will be powerful and clean, but if you’re not on your game, you’ll get a hiding.

That afternoon the wind swings to the south and picks up to 12 mph, making it a messy cross-shore, so the window is tight.

Moving into the weekend, the swell drops. Sunday morning (26th July) is a good call for the more experienced crew. The swell is 7 ft from the SW, still a solid 12-second period, and the ESE wind is offshore again. The energy is still moderate (1493), and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. It’s a step down from Friday, but far more manageable.

We then hit a bit of a lull. The start of the week is a write-off really. Strong winds and deteriorating conditions make it tough. Monday morning (27th July) sees a new pulse of 8 ft SW swell, but with a 16-second period and a screaming 19 mph S wind, the combined energy jumps to 2882. It’s powerful but messy, and the wind is too strong for clean waves. Later that afternoon we get a near gale. Not worth the paddle.

The middle of the week looks better. Wednesday morning (29th July) offers a nice 7 ft SSW swell with a 13-second period and light offshore winds from the east. The energy is moderate (1533), and the call is excellent for experienced surfers. This is a solid session.

Then we have a bit of a drop-off. Thursday morning (30th July) is smaller, with 5 ft of SW swell and a 12-second period, combined energy dropping to 552. The wind is light offshore, so it’ll be clean but small. A good day for a longboard or a foiler.

The next real standout window is Friday morning (31st July). The swell jumps back up to 7 ft, but the period is a very long 17 seconds. The combined energy is strong (2789). The wind is a cross-off from the NNE. This is a powerful groundswell, and with that 17-second period, it’s going to be very straight and fast on the beach. Jacobs Bay is a beach break, so expect long, grinding lefts and rights, but it might be a bit too straight and walled-up for the best shape. Still, the energy is there.

Saturday morning (1st August) is a gem. The wind is a dead calm, glassy 0 mph, with a 7 ft SW swell at 14 seconds. The combined energy is 1700. This will be perfect, clean, and smooth. A proper morning session.

Monday morning (3rd August) is another glassy day with a 8 ft SW swell at 14 seconds. The energy is 2174. It’s a beautiful setup, but again, the size is getting towards the top end of what’s comfortable for a beginner spot.

The second week of the forecast is a bit more mixed. We see a few pulses of 8 ft to 10 ft swell, but the wind is predominantly onshore or cross-shore, making it choppy and lumpy. Not great for a clean ride. The Thursday (6th August) morning is a cruel tease – glassy conditions with a 10 ft SW swell, but it’s simply too big for this break, and the afternoon sees an onshore wind.

Overall, there’s plenty of swell, but it’s a real test of timing and skill. The best windows are the Friday morning (24th July) for the big dogs, the Sunday morning (26th July) for a solid session, and the glassy mornings of the 1st and 3rd of August for the cleanest lines. The crowds are only “sometimes” an issue at Jacobs Bay, but on a glassy Saturday morning with a clean 7 ft swell, you can bet there will be a few more cars in the lot.

-Rusty

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