Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next 16 days.

We’re focusing on a single spot, Jacobs Bay, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The water is running a chilly *54°F*, which is a solid *6°F* colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a big anomaly, so don’t forget your thickest wetsuit.

The first couple of days are a write-off. Saturday morning has a bit of a *6ft* swell from the south, but the wind is already messy and the overall energy is weak (669). The afternoon turns into a complete mess with strong cross-shore winds. We’re looking at a quiet start with no real surf to speak of.

Things finally kick off on Sunday the 6th. The morning is where it’s at. We’ve got a clean *7ft* groundswell from the SW, with a dreamy *18-second* period. That’s proper long-period energy, sending in a massive 2820 energy reading. The wind is a light offshore breeze. This is a standout for experienced surfers only – that size and power will be a handful for beginners. The afternoon gets a bit cross-shore and messy, so get it early.

Monday the 7th is another gem. The morning is absolutely glassy with zero wind, and a solid *7ft* SW swell with a *14-second* period (1527 energy). It’s clean, powerful, and lined up. Again, this is for the experienced crew. The afternoon sees a light cross-on wind creep in, but the morning is as good as it gets.

Tuesday the 8th is a good option for the weekend warriors. The swell drops to *4ft* from the SSW, with a *12-second* period (613 energy). The morning has a light offshore breeze and clean conditions. This is a much more manageable size, and the forecast says the surf will be very good. Crowds are likely here, so get there early.

Wednesday the 9th is a total bust. Strong winds and lumpy, weak surf.

We get a pulse of swell on Thursday the 10th, but it’s a tough one. The morning has a *8ft* SW swell with a long *15-second* period and strong energy (2843), but the wind is a cross-shore, making it lumpy. It’s big and powerful, but messy. The afternoon gets even windier.

Friday the 11th sees the swell jump to *10ft* from the south, but it’s a short-period *8-second* wind swell, which is just a foamy, crumbly mess. The wind is strong, over 28 mph. This is too big and too ugly for the paddle. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The following weekend, Saturday the 12th, has a promising morning. A clean *7ft* SW groundswell with a *16-second* period (2276 energy) and light offshore winds. That’s another solid window for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets a bit cross-shore.

Sunday the 13th through Tuesday the 15th sees a sustained run of *7ft* to *10ft* SW swell, but the wind is all over the place – cross-shore, onshore, or just too strong. It’s going to be a lumpy, choppy mess for the most part. The waves are there, but the quality isn’t.

From Wednesday the 16th right through to Saturday the 20th, the swell stays big, consistently *10ft* to *13ft* and mostly from the WSW. The problem is that the wind is rarely favorable. The forecast keeps saying “too big for this break.” This is a massive amount of energy (up to 6574), but it’s a washing machine. Only the most experienced, well-equipped locals should even consider it, and even then, conditions look poor. The final weekend of the 20th drops off into weak, messy wind swell.

The best on offer: Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th mornings. Clean, powerful, long-period SW groundswell with light offshore or glassy winds. That’s the real deal.

Stay safe, and don't be a hero in the big stuff.
Rusty.

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