Jacobs Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Jacobs Bay has cookin’ over the next couple weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the first week is a bit of a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. We’re looking at a lot of onshore and cross-shore winds messing things up, with only marginal or poor conditions flagged for most days. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 16th. The morning sees a solid 8ft swell from the WSW, but with a 13-second period, that’s got some punch and shape to it. The wind is cross-offshore from the SSE, and the report says “clean.” The combined swell energy is strong at 2787, so there’ll be plenty of power. The downside? That’s a big wave for beginners – over 8ft, so this is one for the experienced crew only. And with the wind staying clean through the afternoon and into Thursday morning on the 17th, those sessions could be worth a paddle if you’ve got the nerve.

Thursday afternoon on the 17th gets flagged with a score of 11 out of 10 for experienced surfers, and I can see why. A 10ft swell from the south, but the period drops to a short 8 seconds. The wind is cross-off and clean, but that swell height is pushing into expert-only territory. The energy reading is solid at 1646, but with such a short period, those waves are going to be a bit dumpy and close together – not the usual long lines you’d want for a point break.

From the 18th through the 20th, we get a string of mornings with clean, cross-off winds and clean conditions, but the swell is mostly in the 6ft to 7ft range. It’s rideable, but nothing that’s going to blow your mind. The period sits between 13 and 14 seconds, which is decent groundswell, and the energy readings are moderate to strong. It’s “marginal” according to the notes, but if you’re keen, the mornings will be your best bet before the winds shift.

Now, the big standout in this whole outlook falls on Tuesday the 22nd. That morning, Jacobs Bay gets a 7ft swell from the southwest with a 14-second period, and the wind is a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE. The combined swell energy is strong at 1748. The report calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one. Clean lines, solid power, and that light breeze will keep the surface looking like glass. For the experienced surfer, this is the session to aim for. The water’s still average temp for the season.

After that, the second week tails off a bit. The 23rd and 24th see the swell jumping too high (up to 13ft) but with messy cross-shore winds, making it a messy, dangerous mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle. The 25th morning cleans up again with a 8ft SW swell and cross-off wind, but the afternoon goes to hell with strong cross-shore chop. The last few days into the 28th are mostly marginal or poor, with strong winds spoiling the party.

So, if you’re an experienced surfer, your window is the morning of Tuesday, September 22nd. That’s the standout. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game through the first week for a few clean but average mornings.

Rusty out.

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