Dumps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve had a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. We’ve only got one spot in the mix, and it’s a bit of a tricky character – Dumps, an inconsistent sandbar break that needs the right key to turn on. The forecast is a bit of a slow burn, but there’s definitely some serious potential hiding in there if you’re willing to wait and pick your moments.

The overall pattern shows a lot of clean but average-to-marginal energy early on, then a big spike of proper SW groundswell that really gets things moving from the weekend of the 12th. That’s where the standout windows are. The water temp here is sitting about average for the time of year, nothing too wild. Combined swell energy is solid, hitting four-digit figures when it matters, like 1647 and 3233.

Right, let’s start from the beginning. Friday the 11th is a bit of a warm-up. Morning sees a 6 ft WSW swell at 12 seconds, but it’s crossed-off at 16 mph from the SSE, and the energy is moderate (967). It’s surfable for the keen, but nothing to write home about. The afternoon drops off a touch.

Saturday the 12th is where the dial starts to move. The morning brings a cleaner 7 ft SW groundswell (15 secs) with moderate cross-off breeze. Wave energy is ramping up strong at 1647. Then comes the first true standout: Saturday afternoon at Dumps. You’ve got a solid 8 ft SW groundswell pushing in with a very long 16-second period, energy roaring at 3233, and the wind swings offshore from the SE at 12 mph. This is proper, heavy, expert-level surf. Long period groundswell like this at a sandbar can be a bit straight and shifty, but when it lines up, it’ll be powerful. The 8 ft size means it’s for experienced surfers only.

Sunday the 13th morning is another gem. A clean 7 ft SW groundswell (14 secs) with a light ESE offshore breeze at 6 mph. Energy is still strong at 1550. This is a more manageable size than Saturday afternoon but still punchy and clean. The afternoon turns cross-on and drops off in quality.

Monday the 14th through Tuesday the 15th is a write-off. Fresh cross-onshore winds from the NNW/NW at 19 mph combine with a couple of different swells, but the quality is poor. The energy is still there, but it’s lumpy and messy. Skip it.

Wednesday the 16th bounces back nicely. Clean cross-off winds from the SSE at 16 mph, with a 6 ft to 7 ft SW swell at 13-14 seconds. Energy is high (2686 and 2036). Conditions are clean, and while it’s not the absolute peak of the window, it’s very surfable for confident intermediates.

Thursday the 17th drops off a fair bit with smaller 4 ft swell, so not the day for it.

Now, Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are the second major standout period. Friday morning at Dumps looks excellent: a 7 ft SW groundswell (13 secs) with a light offshore from the ESE at 6 mph. Clean, solid, and strong energy (1505). The afternoon stays good with a gentle cross-off breeze. Saturday the 19th keeps the run going with a clean 6 ft SW swell (14 secs) and light cross-off winds in the morning. This is quality, consistent surf for experienced surfers.

Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st are more marginal with moderate winds and dropping energy, but still surfable for the dedicated. Tuesday the 22nd is another blown-out day with strong breezes and poor conditions.

Wednesday the 23rd is small and clean but weak. Not worth the paddle.

Then we get a late burst. Thursday the 24th morning is the last true standout of the forecast. Dumps should see an excellent 7 ft SW groundswell (14 secs) with light cross-off winds from the SSE at 6 mph. Energy is back up to 1528. The wind is light, the swell is clean, and it’s a proper session for those in the know.

Friday the 25th continues to be good, with a clean 6 ft SW swell and light offshore winds in the morning. A solid close to the run.

Saturday the 26th looks like a return to poor conditions with a strong cross-on wind, so that’s likely the end of the action for this run.

Best on offer: Saturday the 12th afternoon, with that heavy 8 ft, 16-second SW groundswell and offshore wind. A true expert session, but powerful and demanding. For a more all-rounder standout that’s still heavy but a bit smaller, Friday the 18th morning is your pick – solid 7 ft, clean offshore, and long-period energy.

Right, that’s the long and short of it. Keep your eyes on the sky and your wax warm.

Rusty.

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