Dumps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Dumps over the next couple weeks. It’s a bit of a slow burner, but when it fires, it really fires.

We start off with a few days of small, marginal stuff. Sunday 12 July is pretty weak with a 4ft SSW swell at 11 seconds, but there’s a bit of energy in the water (508). The morning is clean with light offshore ESE winds, but the quality isn’t there yet. Sunday afternoon goes cross-shore and the outlook drops off. Monday 13 July offers glassy conditions but only 3ft of swell – surfable but ordinary. Tuesday 14th is a write-off with poor conditions and onshore wind.

Then it gets interesting. Wednesday 15 July morning is the first standout. Glassy calm, a solid 4ft SW groundswell with a long 17-second period, and the wave energy is pumping (1149). Dumps is a sandbar that likes a W direction, and this is SW, but with that kind of period and clean glass, it’ll be lined up and well-shaped. Keep in mind, that long period can make a beach break a bit straight, but Dumps is fairly exposed so it should handle it. The crowd factor is ‘sometimes’ – could be busy.

Thursday 16 July is excellent for experienced surfers. 8ft to 8ft SW swell at 13 seconds, glassy conditions, and very strong energy (2310 dropping to 1697). This is powerful, heavy, and clean. Beginners should stay out of the way – this is for the crew who know what they’re doing.

Friday 17 July holds the size: 8ft to 10ft SSW swell, clean with cross-offshore winds, energy still in the thousands (1585–2128). Another big day for experienced surfers.

Saturday 18 July is still strong but slightly smaller at 7ft dropping to 6ft SSW, with glassy afternoon conditions. Consistent, clean, and powerful.

Sunday 19 through Monday 20 is a bit of a lull. Smaller 4ft to 3ft swell but still clean and glassy in the mornings. Not bad for a cruise, but nothing to set the world on fire.

Tuesday 21 July morning – this is a monster. 10ft SW swell, clean offshore ESE winds, and wave energy at 2971. The afternoon pushes 12ft but the wind shifts cross-offshore and the guidance flags it as potentially too big for Dumps. Same story Wednesday 22 July morning – 12ft SW at 14 seconds, nearly 5000 energy units, offshore wind – massive, but the setup may not handle it. This is big-wave territory.

The rest of the week gets messy. Thursday 23 July is blown out with rain showers and 35 km/h cross-onshore winds. Friday 24 July is huge but windy – the morning has a clean cross-offshore but 10ft SW at 14 seconds is still massive. The afternoon goes offshore with 25 km/h SE winds and an 12ft, 17-second swell from SW – that’s 7262 energy, but it’s just too big for Dumps.

Saturday 25 July morning is another potential standout if the size drops enough: 8ft SW at 16 seconds with glassy conditions and energy at 4354. That’s a serious clean groundswell for experienced surfers. But the afternoon jumps to 15ft – way too big.

Sunday 26 July stays huge: 15ft to 13ft SW, clean cross-offshore, but well above the limit. Then Monday 27 July sees it start to back off: 6ft dropping to 5ft SW, clean cross-offshore winds, and manageable energy. A decent end to the run.

For the entire 16-day window, the best bet for clean, powerful, and manageable surf is Wednesday 15 July morning and Thursday 16 July – both glassy, solid SW groundswell, and strong wave energy. The later big swells are too large for Dumps to hold well. Crowds might pop up, but that’s the price of quality.

- Rusty

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