Dumps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer. The setup is a bit of a wild one, with a lot of energy from a solid SW groundswell, but for the most part, it’s going to be way too big for the average Joe. The real standout is a very specific, short window of clean, glassy conditions. The water is a bit colder than average for this time of year, sitting at 57°.

We kick off on Thursday, August 6th, and it’s a no-go from the start. That 12ft SW swell (13 second period) is just too much for Dumps. The combined energy is a massive 3611, and even though the wind is light cross-off, it’s just not safe for paddle surfing. This continues through Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th with similar massive swell and energy readings hitting 5000. This is strictly for the tow crew or maybe the kiteboarders.

Then we get a real gem. Early on Sunday, August 10th, things drop back. The swell settles to a manageable 5ft from the SW (11 seconds), with a moderate offshore breeze from the SE. The energy drops to 642, and the comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s your window. Monday morning and afternoon will be the pick of the first week, with clean, offshore lines and a reasonable size.

The following week, starting Monday, August 12th, we see another spike in energy. That 6ft to 8ft SW groundswell has a very long period, hitting 18 seconds on Wednesday morning. The energy is right up there (2392 to 2802), and it’s clean, but for a beach-and-sandbar break like Dumps, that long period can make the waves break too straight. It’s more for the experienced crew. The crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have it to yourself if you’re early.

The real standout of the whole 16-day window, however, is the morning of Monday, August 17th. The forecast shows 8ft of SW swell (13 seconds) with glassy, dead-calm conditions. The energy is 2154, a solid pulse. That glassy wind is a major positive, meaning it will be as clean as it gets. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

The run flattens out a bit towards the end, with smaller, cleaner waves from the 20th onward, but nothing that really jumps out until the last day. Friday, August 21st, shows another strong pulse of swell (10ft from the SSW, 16 seconds, energy of 5155) but the wind turns light cross-shore, so it’s a bit of a mix.

So, bottom line: Don’t hurt yourself on the first few days. Wait for the clean offshore window on Sunday the 10th, and then absolutely lock in that glassy morning on Monday, August 17th. That’s your winner.

Rusty.

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