Dumps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s talk about Dumps. I’m going to be straight with you – this outlook is a slow burner. There’s a bit of a wait for the real action. The long-range stuff looks promising, but we need to get through some flat or messy days first.

The finder only pointed at one spot: Dumps. It’s an inconsistent sandbar, so don’t expect it to be pumping all the time, but when it lines up, it can be worth the patience. The water is sitting at 57°F, which is 4°F colder than average for this time of year – that’s a notable chill, so pull out the thick rubber.

For the first few days (July 4th through to the 5th), it’s pretty poor. We’re looking at a small SW swell, around 2ft to 4ft, with a cross-on wind. Not worth paddling out for; the energy is weak (combined swell energy of 371 to 445). Let’s save the energy.

Things start to wake up on Monday, July 6th. This is the true standout of the whole outlook. The swell jumps to 8ft from the WSW, with a long 11-second period. The wind goes glass in the morning, and then cross-off in the afternoon. The combined energy is strong at 1355-1482. This is proper groundswell, but at 8ft to 7ft, it’s strictly for experienced surfers at this sandbar. The crowd factor is listed as ‘sometimes’, so you might have some company, but early on a Monday could pay off. The swell direction from the WSW is a solid match for the optimum W swell direction for Dumps.

Tuesday, July 7th, keeps the run going with more 7ft SW groundswell (period 12, energy 1350-1546) and glassy conditions in the morning. Again, expert-level stuff. The afternoon gets a little tricky with a cross wind, but the morning is a gem.

The end of that first week (July 8th-10th) stays big, with cross-off winds and solid energy (up to 3020), but the wind strength picks up a bit. Still, the morning of the 9th (Thursday) looks excellent for experienced surfers with 7ft SW swell.

We drop back down for the weekend of the 11th-13th. The 11th (Saturday) has offshore winds on a 5ft SSW swell (energy 926) – good shape for a sandbar, but the drop in size means it’s more manageable. Sunday the 12th is super small (3ft) but glassy.

Then we go into a lull. From the 15th onwards, things get messy with onshore wind, short-period windswell, and rain. The 15th and 16th are poor with a choppy 7ft to 10ft S swell – that’s kite-surfing conditions, not paddle surfing.

The final standout comes on Friday, July 17th. The morning session looks excellent for experienced surfers again: a 8ft S swell with a 12-second period, cross-off wind from the SE, and strong energy (1508). It’s further out, so a little less certain, but a proper swell.

After that, it fades into small, weak, and poor surf through the 19th.

So, to wrap it up: the absolute best on offer is Monday morning, July 6th at Dumps, with that glassy 8ft WSW groundswell. The second best is Friday morning, July 17th, for the late-run S swell. Everything else is either for the hardcore, or not worth the drive.

Stay warm and pick your windows.

Rusty.

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