Dumps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s how it’s looking for Dumps over the next couple of weeks.

The water is sitting at 57°F, which is about 3°F cooler than usual – a bit nippy for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent wetsuit. The outlook kicks off with a good run of clean, groomed waves, then gets a bit wild and woolly before fading out.

Friday the 28th of August starts things off beautifully. We’re looking at a glassy morning with zero wind and a 3ft WSW groundswell rolling in at a long 16 seconds. Combined energy is moderate at 680. The wave faces will be a little fat and lined up, perfect for a longboard or a mid-length. It’s a mellow start, and with the spot being inconsistent and sometimes crowded, you might have to share the takeoff zone if you sleep in.

Saturday the 29th sees the swell building. By the morning, we’ve got 5ft from the WSW with a 14-second period and clean offshore winds from the SE. The energy is stepping up to 982 – moderate but with real push. By the afternoon it’s 7ft, still clean, but a light shower rolls through and the wind swings cross-off. It’s solid intermediate territory, starting to get some grunt.

Sunday the 30th pushes into bigger territory: 8ft SW swell, still a consistent 13-second period, but the wind is a moderate cross-off from the SSE at 15 mph. The energy is tipping over 2000 (2145 morning, 1835 arvo), and while the waves are clean, this size is right on the edge for intermediate surfers. The sets will be powerful, and the beach-break peaks will be moving around. Monday the 31st drops back a notch to 7ft with light winds and clean conditions, and that’s a sweet spot – the energy is around the 1000 mark, and the long-period SW groundswell is offering grunty, well-shaped walls.

Now, Tuesday the 1st of September is a bit of a flicker. The swell bumps back up to 8ft from the SW, but the wind turns cross-onshore and the energy climbs to 2256. It’s messy and textured – still rideable for the dedicated, but not the clean bank-runner you want.

But the standout is Wednesday the 2nd of September. This is the heavy hitter. A massive 15ft SW groundswell from the 16-second period hammering in, with clean cross-off winds from the SSE. The combined energy hits 10661 – that is mega. But Dumps isn’t built for this size; it’s predicted to be too big for the break. This is for serious chargers only, and even then, the rip will be running and closeouts will be heavy. If you’re not comfortable in the 8-10ft range, sit this one out. Honestly, this kind of swell is better suited for a kite setup than a paddle board.

After that peak, Thursday the 3rd is a comedown – 8ft but with howling 28 mph cross-off winds making it a battle to even get out. Friday the 4th is still windy but offshore, with near gale conditions in the morning. Hard to paddle into, but if you’re a tow-in or a lunatic, maybe your jam.

From Saturday the 5th of September onward, the surf dribbles away. Tiny 2ft to 3ft swells, poor wind directions, and sloppy conditions dominate through to the 12th. There’s a brief blip on the 9th with a 5ft short-period swell, but at 7 seconds and a cross-off wind, it’ll be quick and crumbly – fine for a grovel board but nothing exciting.

The best windows are the Friday morning glass-off on the 28th, and the clean 7ft lines on Monday the 31st. The big Wednesday bomb is for experts only, and honestly, it might be a washout at Dumps. After the 2nd, it’s a week of small, messy leftovers with poor conditions. Expect a long stretch from the 5th through to the 12th where you’re really scratching for a ride.

Stay frothy, and I’ll catch you in the water.
- Rusty

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