Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at Oyster Bay across the next 16 days. I’ll be straight with you – this isn’t a spot that fires every day. It’s an inconsistent sandbar, exposed to the swell, but when it lines up, it can be a gem. The water’s sitting at 63°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good spring suit.

Overall Pattern & the Best on Offer

The first week is a mixed bag. We’ve got pulses of swell, but the wind is often messy, and the wave quality is a real struggle. The standout window is actually at the very end of the forecast, right on Monday the 21st of September. That morning is the absolute best of the run – clean, glassy conditions with a 7 ft swell from the east. It’s not huge, but with that perfect glass and consistent lines, it’ll be the day to call in sick.

Day-by-Day Breakdown

We start on Saturday the 12th. The morning has potential – a clean 3 ft SW swell with 14-second period, and a gentle cross-off breeze. The combined wave energy is moderate (439). It’s small but workable for a longboard. The afternoon turns ugly – that SE wind picks up, the swell jumps but gets chopped up. Not worth it.

Sunday the 13th is a write-off for paddling. Morning sees a solid 7 ft SW groundswell (period 15 seconds), but it’s blown out by a near gale. The afternoon actually has a bigger 12 ft swell, but it’s too big for this break and the period is short at 9 seconds. The wind is strong. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The energy is very strong (3942 to 3497).

Monday the 14th starts with a 8 ft ESE swell, but the wind is still too strong, leaving the surface clean but the swell too big and unruly. The afternoon switches to a westerly, but it’s a messy cross-shore.

Tuesday the 15th is marginal. 5 ft swell from the east, but with light cross-onshore winds. The energy is dropping to around 1045. Not your day.

Wednesday the 16th sees another big pulse – 10 ft SW groundswell in the morning (14 seconds, very strong energy at 3495). Again, too big for the break. The afternoon is crossed up.

Thursday 17th and Friday 18th are a grind. Medium 6 ft SW swell (period 12-13 seconds) but persistent cross-shore winds. Crowds are possible here, but if the surf’s this average, it might be quiet.

Saturday 19th looks cleaner. A 8 ft SW swell with 12-second period, and the wind turns cross-off in the morning. The energy is strong (1744). It’s not epic, but it’s the best of this first week stretch.

Sunday 20th is similar but a touch smaller – 6 ft SW swell with clean cross-off winds. The energy drops to 1259. A solid enough session for intermediates.

Monday the 21st – the big day. The morning is glassy, with a 7 ft east swell. The period is short at 8 seconds, but that glassy surface will make it look like a million bucks. Energy is moderate at 989. This is the standout. The afternoon gets a bit more onshore and the swell jumps to 8 ft, but that morning window is pure gold.

Tuesday 22nd is okay, with an 8 ft east swell and cross-off winds in the morning, but by afternoon the wind picks up to 19 mph. Energy spikes to 1860.

Wednesday 23rd is blown out again – strong winds ruin the 6 ft swell.

Thursday 24th shows a return of SW groundswell at 6 ft, 14-second period, and clean cross-off winds in the morning. Energy is 1714. A good late-week option. The afternoon switches to a westerly cross-shore.

Friday 25th is cross-onshore and messy with a 8 ft ESE swell. Not the one.

Saturday 26th is clean and cross-off, but the swell is only 6 ft from the ESE. Energy is low (780).

Sunday the 27th wraps it up with a 3 ft SW groundswell – a massive 19-second period! That’s very long period, so it’ll be fat and lined up, best on the deeper parts of the sandbar. Energy is moderate (1111). A clean, mellow finisher.

Bottom line: There’s a lot of average-to-poor days here, but the glassy morning of Monday the 21st (7 ft east) and the clean Sunday the 27th (3 ft, 19-second period) are your rays of hope. The rest is a fight against the wind. Forecasts can change, but for now, pencil in that Monday.

Rusty.

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