Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s the surf outlook for Oyster Bay (sandbar).

First up, water temp is 64°, which is a bit colder than the usual for this time of year – about 2°F cooler, so you’ll want a good wetsuit.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window, the pickings are slim. The first solid recommendation doesn’t kick in until Monday, 14 July. Before that, from now through the weekend, the swell is just too big and messy for Oyster Bay. Thursday morning (9 July) has a solid 12ft SW swell with a 14-second period, but that cross-on wind at 30 km/h is absolutely ruining it – lumpy, choppy, and not worth paddling out. Friday and Saturday have cleaner wind, but the swell is still way too heavy (10ft to 12ft), with a combined energy over 3400 (very strong), and that’s just too much for this sandbar. It’s really only for the most experienced, and even then, it’s not looking fun.

There’s a bit of a gap from Sunday 13 July afternoon through to Monday, 14 July. The standout morning is Monday, 14 July. The swell drops to 3ft from the east, with a short 8-second period, but the wind is glassy – absolute dead calm, nothing but a slight air. The combined energy is only 275 (weak), so it’s small, but for a sandbar that’s inconsistent, a clean, glassy morning like this is a rare treat. It’s the only real window of good surf conditions in the first week. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

Moving into the second week, things get a bit more interesting but still uncertain. The best bet looks like Saturday, 18 July. The swell picks up to 7ft from the east again, with a short 8-second period, but the wind is clean and cross-off, and the combined energy hits 1416 (moderate). The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” – it’s still a bit too big for beginners, but for those with some time in the water, it’ll be clean and fun. Crowds are possible, so keep an eye out.

Then on Monday, 20 July, another big pulse comes through: 12ft SW swell with a 12-second period, combined energy 3299 (strong). The wind is light cross-shore, so it’s rideable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. Only for experts, and even then, it’s a bit of a gamble.

The best of the second week, and arguably the whole outlook, is Tuesday, 21 July. A massive 13ft SSW groundswell with a very long 16-second period rolls in, combined energy hitting 8323 (very strong). The wind is light offshore from the NNE, making it clean. But – and this is a big but – that’s just too much swell for a sandbar. It’ll be breaking straight and fast, and it’s definitely only for experienced surfers. The long period means big gaps between sets, which can help with paddling out, but it’s a serious challenge. If you’re an expert and you’re after a wild, powerful session, this is the standout. It’s over a week away, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

After that, Thursday 23 July morning looks clean again, with 6ft SW swell and a 13-second period, light offshore wind, and combined energy 1295 (moderate). Good for experienced surfers, but not a headline.

Overall, there are long gaps with no real recommendations – like from now until Monday 14 July, and then again between some afternoons. The consistent theme is that Oyster Bay is an inconsistent break, so a blank run isn’t unusual. If the swell drops and the wind stays clean, forecasts can change, but right now, the only true standouts are the glassy morning of 14 July for a small, clean session, and the big, gnarly swell of 21 July for experts only.

Rusty

Read more