Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here, and I'm going to level with you: looking at Oyster Bay, it’s a tough forecast. This sandbar setup is inconsistent at the best of times, and the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag of wind, wonky swell directions, and some serious size. Let's get into it.

The water temp is sittin' around 64°, which is about 1° cooler than usual for this time of year. Just a touch on the cool side, nothing to worry about.

We kick off on Tuesday, September 15th. The morning has a 5ft swell from the east, but it's cross-on and choppy. That combined energy is only 888 (moderate), and the conditions are straight-up poor. Not a good start. The afternoon drops to 4ft but it's still just marginal.

Wednesday the 16th is a write-off. A nasty 22 mph cross-on wind is smashing the 3ft morning swell. The afternoon sees a big jump to 10ft from the southwest, but with a 12 mph cross-on wind and the energy hitting 2973 (strong), it's just messy and blown out.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th stay poor. Thursday has a 7ft swell but cross-shore winds. Friday morning is clean with a 6ft cross-off swell, but the energy is moderate (1668). However, the Friday afternoon is the first real standout for the absolute wrong reason: a 10ft, 8-second period swell from the ESE with an energy of 1841. The wind is clean, but 10ft is too big for this break – that’s expert territory only, but given the short period, it’ll be a closeout mess.

Saturday the 19th is more of the same. A clean 12ft swell in the morning and 10ft in the afternoon. These are too big for most paddlers here. Kite surfers might find this more interesting than we will.

There’s then a long gap with nothing to recommend. Sunday the 20th through Tuesday the 29th is a run of poor and marginal forecasts. Sunday brings heavy rain and a fresh onshore wind with an 8ft swell, and the energy is through the roof at 3613 (very strong). The conditions are just too rough. Monday the 21st to the 29th has some cleaner windows with cross-off winds, but the swell heights are either too small (4ft to 5ft) or the wind is too strong or wrong direction.

Now, the real talk. On Wednesday, September 30th, we get a genuine highlight. The morning offers a 4ft swell from the southwest with a long, tasty 13-second period. The combined energy is 1784 (strong), but the key is the cross-off wind from the east at only 3 mph. Glassy as. The file says it’s ‘excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers’. This swell direction is a bit off the optimum SE, and the break is inconsistent, so don't expect a crowd, but the long period will wrap nicely into Oyster Bay. If you’re an intermediate or above, this is the one to wait for.

So, the best run is the morning of September 30th. Before that, it’s a pretty bleak 15-day stretch. A blank run like this is normal for this spot. Forecasts can always change, but strap in and be ready for that last Wednesday morning.

Take it easy,
Rusty

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