Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is a grim outlook for Oyster Bay. We’ve got a 16-day window and honestly, it’s a tough slog. The first solid, clean window we see isn’t until the morning of Monday, August 17th. That’s over a week of waiting for something good.

The story right now is a whole lot of messy, onshore wind and lumpy, poor surf. The water’s turned over at Oyster Bay, coming in at a chilly 60°, which is a massive 6° colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a really unusual chill, so suit up warm if you’re even thinking about it.

Look, the first few days are a write-off. From the start through to the end of next week, it’s mostly cross-onshore wind, choppy conditions, and poor surf according to the data. Swell energy is high, often over 2000 and even hitting 3596 on Sunday the 9th, but with that wind, it’s just a messy, blown-out ocean. The swell is big, over 8 ft for a bit, but the quality is zero. It’s a beach setup, and honestly, with that much wind and swell, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

We get a short reprieve on Tuesday, August 11th morning. The wind swings cross-offshore from the east, and the sea state cleans up. The swell is a solid 10 ft from the SSW, but here’s the kicker – the data says it’s predicted to be too big for this break. That’s only for experts, and even then, it’s gonna be a handful. The energy is strong (2877). After that, it’s back to marginal or poor conditions with strong cross-off winds.

The true standout, and I mean the *only* real session to circle on your calendar, is the morning of Monday, August 17th. This is the one. We get glassy conditions with a light northerly wind of just 3 mph. The swell is a clean 7 ft from the SW, with a very long period of 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy, rated as very good for experienced surfers. The combined energy is a meaty 2412. This is a point break or reef setup, and that long period will wrap in nicely, giving you well-shaped, powerful waves with long gaps. The crowd profile says it’s “sometimes” busy, so with a day this good, expect others to be in the water.

Overall, the 16-day outlook is bleak. There’s a massive gap of poor and marginal surf until that Monday morning. After that, things get mixed up again with messy winds and weaker, short-period swell for the second week, offering nothing you’d want to paddle out for. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is a waiting game for that one glassy morning.

Rusty.

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