Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's talk about Oyster Bay.

Right now, the water temp is about 64°, which is roughly 1° cooler than the average for this time of year – nothing dramatic, just a touch of autumn cool.

We're looking at a very frustrating 16-day window here. The problem isn't a lack of swell; it's that the swell is mostly too big, comes with the wrong wind, or both. There’s a decent amount of energy in the water early on—starting with a strong 3431 combined swell energy on Wednesday morning—but that 10ft SW swell at 13 seconds is just too much muscle for the break. The wind is light and glassy in the morning, which is a shame because the setup is clean but the wave height is a no-go for everyone except the most experienced, and even then, it's sketchy.

That afternoon, the wind kicks up to a cross-shore 9 mph, and the energy drops a bit. The whole of Thursday and Friday is a write-off with howling winds and choppy, lumpy conditions. Saturday and Sunday calm down a little, but we're dealing with fresh breeze and only marginal surf quality despite some clean conditions. The standout in this first week is actually Monday, September 7th, in the morning. You've got a clean 10ft E swell with a gentle 9 mph NNE offshore wind. The combined energy is a massive 4485. The catch? This is way over 8ft, so it’s expert-only territory. For the brave, the shape from that 10-second period will hold up okay on the sandbar, but the power is serious.

The second week doesn't offer much relief. There are days with clean wind but weak swell, or strong swell with onshore chop. The one glimmer is Monday, September 14th, in the afternoon. The swell has backed off to a more manageable 6ft from the E with a 10-second period. The wind is a light ENE cross-off, keeping it clean. The combined energy is moderate at 1046. It’s not a classic day, but it’s the most user-friendly window for an intermediate surfer in the entire forecast. Then on Wednesday, September 16th, in the morning, we get another clean shot: a 6ft SW swell with a light NNE offshore wind. The 10-second period is fine, and the energy is moderate (1143). It's clean and should have some punch, but be aware the wind switches onshore hard in the afternoon.

Overall, if you're an expert, the September 7th morning is your window for some serious, clean power. For everyone else, the afternoon of September 14th and the morning of the 16th are the only real, clean opportunities in this run. Most of this 16-day window is blown out or too big, which is a tough stretch.

- Rusty

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