Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer at Oyster Bay. This is a bit of a tricky forecast, with a long wait for the real good stuff, but there’s a diamond or two in the rough if you’re patient.

The first real surfable window kicks off Wednesday the 29th of July, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid 7 ft swell from the southwest, with a nice 13-second period pushing a lot of energy (1913). Thing is, the wind is howling out of the east at 22 mph, cross-off sure, but it’s a fresh breeze that’s going to put a bit of a chop on the surface. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is about 1° cooler than the average for this time of year, so it’s pretty normal, nothing to worry about in terms of a wetsuit choice. Wednesday afternoon the swell drops a touch to 6 ft, and the wind eases a bit, but it’s still a moderate breeze. It’s surfable, but it’s not the best time to be out there.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st see the swell slowly backing off, from 6 ft down to 4 ft by Friday afternoon. The wind stays cross-off, but it’s getting stronger again on Friday, with a strong breeze of 25 mph. The energy drops right off too, down to 864 by Friday afternoon. Honestly, Friday arvo is a write-off.

Saturday the 1st of August looks a bit weird. The swell jumps back up to 8 ft overnight, but the period drops right out to a short 8-second wind swell from the east. The energy is moderate (1078-1106), but the wind is a fresh 19-22 mph cross-off. This one is for the experienced guys only, and even then, it’s going to be a bit of a battle with the wind and short-period chop.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Sunday the 2nd of August is the standout of the first week. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph out of the northeast in the morning, switching to a glassy southeast in the afternoon. The swell is a solid 6 ft to 6 ft from the east-southeast, with a 9-second period. The energy is moderate (943-1008), but the conditions are going to be *clean*. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions” and “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one to circle. The early glass-off is going to be magic. Remember, this break is inconsistent, so when it bowls in like this, you don’t want to miss it, and crowds are possible.

Monday the 3rd of August is another gem. The wind goes completely calm, glassy, in the morning. The swell is back to 5 ft from the southwest, but with a long 13-second period, pushing decent energy (1173). The morning session is going be pure glass. The afternoon picks up a light cross-shore breeze, but it’s still a good option.

After Monday, we hit a big dry spell. From Tuesday the 4th of August, the wind turns cross-onshore and the swell quality just tanks. The conditions are rated as poor right through to the end of the second week. The waves get big again, but the wind is on it, making it messy. The swell on the 6th and 7th of August is huge – 10 ft to 12 ft spinning up massive energy (2691 to 5731), but it’s too big for this break, and the wind is wrong. At that size, with the wind from the west, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The next real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday the 11th of August. The wind finally goes offshore out of the north-northeast, a light 6 mph breeze. The swell is a clean 8 ft from the east with a 10-second period, pushing a good amount of energy (1320). The forecast is calling it excellent for experienced surfers. This is your second-week standout. The morning will be the cleanest, with the afternoon wind turning cross-off from the east. It’s a long way off, so don’t bank on it, but it’s the one to keep an eye on.

The rest of the second week from the 12th onwards is a mix of poor conditions and marginal surf with the wrong wind. There’s a big, long-period groundswell (19 seconds) on the 12th, but it’s cross-onshore, making it a mess. The 13th has a 7 ft SW swell, but again, onshore wind.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is Sunday the 2nd of August for the glassy, clean conditions, and then look to Tuesday the 11th of August for a promising but less certain offshore window. Be patient, and be ready for that Sunday glass.

Rusty.

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