Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gather round, surfers. It’s Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cookin’ over at Oyster Bay.

Right out the gate, the news is a bit of a heartbreaker. The next week and a half are a mixed bag, and honestly, there’s not a single day I’d call a must-surf. We’ve got a lot of swell, way too much of it, but the wind and the sheer size are going to keep things tricky. This spot only really wakes up with a solid SE groundswell, but the forecast is feeding it a lot of SW energy. The water temp is feelin’ about average for late August, so no wetsuit drama.

The first few days – Sunday and Monday the 23rd and 24th – are just meh. We’re looking at around 6 ft to 7 ft of SW windswell with a period around 11 seconds, but the wind is either cross-on or onshore, making it choppy and messy. The combined wave energy is a moderate 1256 to 1583, but it’s not doing anything clean. No reason to paddle out just yet.

Tuesday the 25th is where it gets interesting but dangerous. The swell jumps to 10 ft with a longer 14-second period. That’s a groundswell with some serious grunt – the combined energy hits 3249 – but 10 ft is too big for this break. The wind is light cross-on, so the face might have a moment, but you’d want to be an absolute expert, and even then, it’s sketchy. This pattern repeats Wednesday the 26th: a powerful 10 ft swell from the S with a very long 16-second period, even bigger energy at 4010 to 4430, but the wind is a stiff 22-25 mph cross-offshore. It’ll look clean from the beach, but the combination of big, long-period groundswell and strong side-offshore wind makes it a beast of a paddle out. Not for the faint of heart.

Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th see the swell drop back to a more manageable 4 ft to 7 ft, and the wind goes cross-off. It’s cleaner, but the combined energy has dropped into the three-digit range (1073 on Friday morning). Friday morning might have a few nice ones for experienced surfers, but the inconsistency of this break is a barrier.

Then we hit a dead zone. From Saturday the 29th right through Monday the 31st, it’s all poor surf conditions. Swells are tiny, under 4 ft, and the wind is either onshore or a stiff cross-onshore. The energy readings are pathetic – 118 to 276. Don’t bother.

Now, if you’re patient, there’s a glimmer in the long range. Tuesday, September 1st, a big 10 ft SW swell rolls in with a 13-second period and very light, cross-on winds. The combined energy is a strong 2744. This is a true stand-out for expert-level surfers only. Too big for beginners for sure. The caveat is it’s a week away, so the call is less certain, and the break is set up for a SE swell, not SW, so the shape might be a bit walled.

From Wednesday the 2nd through to Monday the 7th, we get a bunch more giant swells, often over 10 ft up to 15 ft, with combined energy readings in the thousands and even hitting 7077 on the 3rd. The wind is sometimes clean, sometimes not, but the size is just relentless. If you’re a big-wave charger, the mornings of Wednesday the 3rd or Saturday the 5th with clean cross-off winds and a 10 ft to 12 ft show could be worth a look. But for the rest of us, this stretch is a write-off due to size. The break is so inconsistent that a long run of poor surf is honestly pretty normal here.

If you’re looking at the setup with all that wind and swell, honestly, the conditions look more set for kite surfing than paddle surfing a lot of this period.

Rusty.

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