Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this 16-day window for Oyster Bay is a mixed bag with some real promise if you’re patient and pick your moments. The combined swell energy kicks off at a moderate 400, but don’t let that fool you; the opening days are messy and the water is sitting at a very unusual 59°, a full 7° colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick steamer.

Wednesday morning (9th September) is only serving up 3ft of SW swell with a solid 11-second period and a light cross-shore breeze. The energy is moderate (400), but the forecast calls it marginal—not worth paddling out for. Wednesday afternoon improves: 4ft from the SW, period jumps to 14 seconds, and the wind goes light cross-offshore. That gives you clean, glassy lines at the sandbar, and the combined energy climbs to a solid 566. This is your first real chance, but the break is inconsistent and sometimes crowded, so you might have to work for it.

Thursday (10th September) is write-off. The swell builds to 4ft and then 7ft, but it’s blown out with a strong cross-onshore wind. Friday (11th) stays messy—6ft to 7ft of SW swell with cross-on breezes and choppy conditions. Not worth a second look.

Saturday (12th) and Sunday (13th) bring clean cross-offshore winds but the surf is still marginal. Saturday morning has only 3ft, afternoon picks up to 6ft of SW groundswell at 15 seconds (combined energy 2293), but the reports say questionable tide conditions. Sunday pumps 7ft of SW swell with a 14-second period (energy 2720) and clean wind, but again, not firing on all cylinders.

Now, Monday morning (14th September) is where it gets interesting for experienced surfers. The swell shifts to 8ft from the ESE with a shorter 9-second period, but the wind is light and cross-offshore, keeping it clean. The combined energy is strong at 1358. This is a standout, but that shorter period means the waves might be a bit crumbly—best for a shortboard if you’ve got the chops.

Tuesday (15th) is back to marginal with a mix of E and SW swells around 5ft. Wednesday (16th) sees the swell absolutely detonate—12ft from the SW at a very long 16-second period, combined energy smashing 5936. But the wind swings onshore, and the report warns it’s too big for this break. This is for experts only, and even then, the sandbar might be closing out. Same deal on Thursday morning (17th) with 10ft SW swell and clean wind, but again, too big.

The second week settles into a pattern of clean cross-offshore winds but mostly marginal surf. Friday morning (18th) offers 5ft of SW swell with a 12-second period and gentle cross-off breeze—worth a look if you’re keen. Saturday (19th) afternoon is the highlight: 6ft of SW groundswell at 14 seconds (energy 2056), with a light cross-offshore breeze and the forecast calling it excellent for experienced surfers. The swell direction matches the optimum SE, so the sandbar should line up nicely. Crowds are sometimes an issue, but the clean conditions make it worth the company.

Sunday (20th) is trashed by rain showers and strong cross-onshore wind. Monday (21st) morning has 7ft of E swell (energy 1888) with cross-off wind, but the period is short at 10 seconds. Tuesday (22nd) to Thursday (24th) sees sizes ranging from 5ft to 7ft, mostly with clean wind, but the energy dips and the swell direction swings around. Wednesday morning (23rd) has 5ft of SW groundswell at a lovely 15 seconds (energy 1227) and clean cross-off wind—a sneaky good session if you can get out.

Overall, the best bets are Wednesday afternoon (9th) for a clean start, Monday morning (14th) for the experienced crew, and Saturday afternoon (19th) for the best combo of size, period, and wind. Don’t get too excited about the big days—10ft+ is just too much for this sandbar.

Rusty.

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