Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Let me have a look at the charts for Oyster Bay. The next week and a bit is a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows that will get us out there. It’s been pretty cold for the season here, the water temp is sitting at 59°, which is a full 7° colder than usual for this time of year. That’s well outside the norm, so even a quality 4/3 wetsuit will feel the bite.

The forecast kicks off with Monday, August 24th. There’s some size in the morning – a 7ft SW swell – but the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy. It’s really not worth paddling out for. That afternoon drops off even further. Tuesday the 25th carries a bigger SW swell, 8ft in the morning, but the wind is still cross-onshore and the conditions look average at best. The wave energy is moderate (3297), but the quality just isn’t there.

We start to see some hope on Wednesday, August 26th. The swell hangs around 8ft to 8ft from the SSW, the period gets up to 16 seconds, and the wind turns cross-off from the East. That’s going to clean it up nicely. That long-period groundswell will have a lot of energy (3330) and make for some hollow peaks, but the sandbar might let it get a bit straight at times. Still, it’s a solid day for intermediate to experienced surfers.

Thursday the 27th stays clean with a cross-off flow, but the swell mixes up. The morning has a 6ft SSW groundswell; the afternoon switches to a shorter-period 8ft E swell. It’s rideable, but nothing to write home about. Friday the 28th is where the morning session starts to shine. We’ve got clean 6ft E swell with a 10-second period and a gentle cross-off breeze. The combined energy is moderate (944), but the conditions are supposed to be *very good* for this spot. It’ll be a fun day on a shortboard or a fish.

By Saturday, August 29th, the swell eases to 4ft from the East, but the highlight is the afternoon. That wind goes offshore from the NE, and the conditions are forecast to be *very good* for surfing again. A clean, offshore 4ft wave with 11-second period is a classic Oyster Bay day. The crowd factor is "sometimes" an issue here, so early or late you might have it to yourself.

The next stretch from Sunday the 30th through to Monday the 31st is a write-off. The wind goes onshore and gets strong. Swell bumps up to 8ft with a 12-second period on Sunday, but it’s paired with a choppy, cross-onshore mess. Kite surfers might get a kick out of that wind, but for us paddle surfers, it’s a hard pass.

We’ve got a bit of a hidden gem coming on Tuesday, September 1st. The morning has clean 6ft SW groundswell, a 14-second period, and a light offshore breeze from the NE. That’s the kind of setup that pulls in nicely on the bank. Wave energy is moderate (1344), but the forecast says it'll be *excellent for experienced surfers*. That long period makes it a proper groundswell, so it’ll be bowling on the bar.

Now, here’s the real standout. Wednesday, September 2nd. The morning is glassy. Completely. Wind is nearly nothing from the SE, and there’s a 13ft SW groundswell rolling in. That’s very strong wave energy (5007). However, for Oyster Bay, this is too big for the general crowd. The forecast warns the swell will be too big for this break. It’s strictly a jet-ski or expert-only mission if you’re game.

The days after that quickly degrade. Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th are blown out by gale to storm-force winds. We’ve got building swell, 15ft to 16ft, but all that power is just a big, lumpy, dangerous mess. Do not even look at the water. Saturday and Sunday remain poor with onshore winds and big, messy, 10ft to 12ft swells.

Looking into the second week, the first standout is Tuesday, September 8th. The morning has a very long-period (17 seconds) S swell at 6ft. The wind is a cross-off from the NNW. That’s a promising combo for a clean, powerful wave, but with that period it might run a bit fast for a beach break. Still, it’s the best looking run of surf in that second week. The energy reading is strong (3531). It’s a bit of a long-range call, so it’s promising but less certain.

So, to wrap it up: if you’re looking for the best windows, mark Friday morning August 28th and Saturday afternoon August 29th. For the experienced crew, Tuesday morning September 1st is a ripper, and the glassy but massive Wednesday September 2nd is a wild card if you’ve got the gear.

Stay warm, and don’t rush the bad ones.

Rusty.

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