Oyster Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's cooking for the only game in town.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – Oyster Bay is the only spot in the mix, and it's a bit of a challenge. It's a sandbar that's exposed to swell, but it’s also inconsistent, so you can't just rock up any time. It's an intermediate wave when it's on, but the wind and size are going to be our biggest hurdles for the next week and a half.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

The outlook starts on Wednesday, July 8th, and honestly, it's a write-off for a solid week. We've got a big, messy swell building from the south-west. Wednesday morning is already 8 ft with a 13-second period, but a stiff 19 mph cross-onshore wind from the west is just destroying it. The energy is strong (1920), but it's all for nothing – it's lumpy, messy, and a total waste of good swell. It gets worse from there. By Thursday the 9th, the swell bumps up to 12 ft (4199 energy) with that same nasty cross-onshore wind. It’s honestly looking more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle session – the combination of size and chop makes it unappealing for us. This blows out right through the weekend.

Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th actually have some clean windows with offshore/cross-off winds from the east, but the swell is still hanging around 8 ft. The forecast notes say the swell is too big for this break during that time. Even on Saturday when it's clean with an 8 ft SSW swell, it's just a bit of a wash. We finally get a drop in size on Sunday the 12th with a 7 ft S swell, but the wind is a moderate cross-off. It's a marginal call at best. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th see the swell drop to 4 ft, but the wind swings onshore or cross-shore and it gets lumpy again. Not worth paddling out.

There's finally a small window on Wednesday morning, July 15th. It's small – just 4 ft of E swell with a 10-second period – but we get light offshore winds from the north-west and it's clean. The energy is weak (397), but it'll be the first clean, rideable wave in a week. If you're desperate for a paddle, that's your moment.

After that, it gets ugly again with a howling westerly wind, and then we get a massive pulse of swell on Thursday afternoon the 16th – 15 ft SW (5302 energy) – but it's blown out by a strong cross-onshore. A few days later, on Saturday the 18th, we get a 8 ft SSW swell with fresh cross-off winds from the east, but the surf quality is still only marginal. There's a moment on Monday morning, July 20th, that looks interesting. We get a 7 ft SSW groundswell with a nice 14-second period and a clean offshore wind from the north-northeast. The energy is moderate at 1895, and the surf is clean. That’s probably the next best, but it's over a week away so don't book your trip yet.

The tail end, around Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd, has some clean little waves with a 4 ft SW swell again, but it's very small and weak.

So, the best bet in this whole 16-day run? It has to be that Monday morning, July 20th. The 7 ft SSW groundswell hitting that 14-second period, paired with a clean offshore. It’s the only time we get decent size, decent period, and clean conditions all together. It’s a standout, but it's also a long-range call, so keep your fingers crossed. The Saturday the 18th morning with the cross-off wind could be alright too, but the Monday looks cleaner.

That's it for now. Keep your eyes on the horizon and your wax warm.

Rusty.

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