Koeel Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The surf at Koeel Bay has a rough start, but patience pays off. There’s a nice window mid-week, but you’ll have to wait through a few flat or blown-out days first.

First up, Tuesday the 14th is a write-off. We’ve got a tiny 2ft southerly swell at a short 9 seconds and a cross-on NNW breeze making things choppy. Combined wave energy is weak at just 80 – not worth paddling out.

We stay quiet through Tuesday and into Wednesday the 15th morning. The swell bumps up to 3ft from the SW with a very long period of 17 seconds (groundswell), and the combined energy climbs to 482 – moderate. But the cross-on wind from the NW is still messing with the surface.

Then things change. Wednesday afternoon is easily one of the best windows. The swell jumps to 6ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 1784. More importantly, the wind goes glassy – dead calm, offshore-adjacent. This is excellent for experienced surfers. That’s a standout.

Now we get a stretch of better conditions. Thursday the 16th morning stays glassy with a 5ft SW swell (period 13 seconds, energy 933), and very good surf. The afternoon drops to 5ft but stays glassy. Friday the 17th is clean, with offshore E wind in the morning on a 4ft SSW swell (period 11 seconds, energy 389). The weekend carries that clean, glassy theme, with waist-chest high waves, mostly from the SSW. Saturday morning stays glassy with 3ft, and the swell direction swings SW again in the afternoon at 4ft, period 13 seconds.

Sunday the 19th morning is clean with decent cross-off wind and a solid 5ft SW swell (period 12 seconds, energy 574). The breeze picks up in the afternoon, but it’s still cross-off. Monday the 20th repeats the pattern – glassy morning, clean afternoon, consistent 5ft SSW swell.

Then we hit a rough patch. Tuesday the 21st through Thursday the 23rd is blown out, with strong NW winds and lumpy, messy surf. On the 21st, the swell is up to 8ft but with those cross-onshore winds near 22 mph, it’s a mess. Even the 8ft on Wednesday the 22nd is unsurfable with near gale cross-onshore winds.

Friday the 24th morning brings a nice reset – glassy with a 4ft WSW swell, period 14 seconds, energy 752 – very good surf. The afternoon stays clean but smaller.

Think you have one more standout here: Saturday the 25th afternoon. The swell builds to 6ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, combined energy strong at 1760, and the wind is a light cross-shore. It’s a marginal label, but for an experienced surfer who knows Koeel Bay, that’s a punchy, rideable swell with a clean surface.

Sunday the 26th is still surfable but wind picks up to 19 mph by afternoon, getting ragged. Then Monday the 27th morning goes offshore with a 7ft SE swell but a short period of 8 seconds – that’s messy, but strong at 1807 energy. Monday afternoon is the better call: offshore ESE breeze, 4ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, energy 688, very good conditions.

After that, the end of July into the 29th looks lumpy again with strong cross-onshore wind and moderate swell – not worth chasing.

Water temperature is about 58°F, which is 2°F below normal – so a bit cooler than average for the time of year, but not shocking.

Bottom line: Wednesday afternoon the 15th and Saturday afternoon the 25th are your best bets. Glassy conditions on the 15th and punchy, clean surf on the 25th. The other days are either too small, too windy, or too messy. Nothing ideal for beginners – most swells are best for intermediates and up when clean.

Rusty.

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