Koeel Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here, and let's have a look at what's on the cards for Koeel Bay. This is a reef break that's fairly consistent, and it's gonna be a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks.

We kick off on Friday, July 10th, with a solid swell already running. The water's sitting at 59°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Friday morning is the real standout to start with: a clean 7ft swell from the south, with a long 13-second period, and a moderate offshore breeze from the ESE. The combined energy is a hefty 1698, and the report says it's excellent for experienced surfers – and it is. That's a lot of power, and at over 8ft later in the window, it's definitely for the crew who know what they're doing. Friday afternoon holds at 6ft from the SSW, still clean and offshore, and that quality continues right through Saturday morning with a similar 7ft south swell. The crowd situation here is "sometimes", so you might have a few others out, but it's not a circus.

Saturday afternoon drops off a touch to 6ft, and the wind stays offshore, but the score drops. Sunday the 12th is still a great call: a clean 5ft south swell in the morning, dropping to 5ft in the arvo, with a gentle offshore breeze. The energy drops to 912, but it's still fun, clean surf.

Now, we hit a bit of a flat patch. Monday the 13th is glassy but tiny – 2ft and 2ft – and the energy is weak at 148. Tuesday and Wednesday are grim, with onshore and cross-onshore winds and tiny, weak waves. That's a solid three-day gap with nothing to get excited about.

Things start to stir again on Thursday the 16th. A clean 5ft from the SW with a 13-second period and a cross-off breeze. That's a good sign, and the energy is back up to 892. But Friday the 17th is a write-off – strong cross-onshore winds and rain.

Now, the real heavy stuff is coming. Saturday the 18th of July is a monster. We're looking at a massive 12ft SSW swell, with a 13-second period, and a moderate offshore wind. The combined energy is a staggering 3899 in the morning, jumping to 4363 in the afternoon. That is powerful, dangerous surf. The report says it's too big for this break, and I'd agree – that's for experts only, and even then, you need to be on your game. The swell direction from the SSW is a good match for the optimum S direction, but the size is the story.

Sunday the 19th is still solid but much more manageable. A 8ft swell from the south, with a gentle offshore wind and a 12-second period. The energy is 2033, and it's labeled as excellent for experienced surfers. That's a much better bet for the crew who want a proper, heavy wave without the insanity of the 12ft stuff.

The following week looks promising. Monday the 20th is a clean 5ft, Tuesday the 21st is a consistent 5ft with offshore winds, and Wednesday the 22nd is another standout: a 7ft SSW swell with a very long 15-second period and a light offshore breeze. The energy is 2288. That long period will make for some proper, well-shaped waves at this reef, but it might be a bit too straight for a beach break. Still, Koeel is a reef, so it should handle it beautifully.

Thursday the 23rd is a big one – 8ft SSW with a 19-second period and a massive 7642 energy reading. That's extreme, and the report says it's marginal, likely due to the size and the cross-off wind. Friday the 24th is another big day at 8ft, but with a clean offshore wind. The best of that second week is probably Wednesday the 22nd for the quality of the swell and the light wind, or the 19th for the size being more manageable.

The final Saturday, the 25th, starts clean with a 7ft SW swell and a light cross-off, but it gets blown out in the afternoon by a strong NNW wind.

So, the best of the best? That Friday morning, July 10th, is a cracker. And if you're looking ahead, the 22nd of July is a real promise for some serious groundswell. Keep an eye on the 19th too.

Rusty.

Read more