Koeel Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve only got one spot on the menu this outlook – Koeel Bay – and the next 16 days are a mixed bag of real promise and some frustrating lulls. The water’s sitting at about 58°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so factor in an extra layer if you’re heading out.

The action starts on Tuesday afternoon, August 11, but honestly, it’s pretty marginal. We’ve got a 4 ft swell from the SSW with 12-second period, a moderate 19 mph ESE offshore wind keeping things clean, but the combined wave energy’s only 717 – not much grunt behind it, and the tide might play games. You could get a wave, but it’s not worth rushing for.

The real standout kicks off Wednesday morning, August 12. This is the best of the run. The swell lifts to 4 ft from the SW, with a gorgeous 18-second period – proper groundswell, long lines. The combined energy jumps to 1820 (moderate to strong). A light 6 mph ENE cross-off breeze keeps the faces clean. This one’s for experienced surfers; that long period can make the sets a bit trickier at a reef setup, but when it lines up, it’ll be memorable. The next morning, Thursday August 13, is still very good: similar 5 ft SW swell with 18-second period, 1414 energy, and a light 6 mph NE cross-off wind. Get in the water early.

We hit a flat patch from Friday August 14 through to Tuesday August 18. Swell drops under 3 ft, winds turn cross-onshore, and the scores nose-dive. There’s a brief window on Saturday August 15 morning with glass-off conditions and a 3 ft swell, but it’s small and weak (294 energy). Not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a glide. Honestly, those mid-days are better spent on the beach.

Come Tuesday afternoon, August 18, things get rowdy but rough. A 7 ft swell from the WSW rolls in, combined energy 1505, but the period’s a short 12 seconds and a 12 mph SSW cross-wind chops it up. That’s kite-surf territory, not paddle.

Wednesday August 19 cleans up nicely – 5 to 6 ft SW swell, 11-second period, and a solid 12 to 16 mph ESE offshore wind. The energy’s moderate (593 to 676), and the winds will hold it together, though it’s still a wind-affected swell. Thursday August 20 sees a drop back to 4 ft, but the offshore’s still there. Nothing to get excited about.

The real second standout lands on Sunday August 23 afternoon and into Monday August 24. Sunday afternoon pumps: 6 ft SSW swell, 16-second period, combined energy hits 2061 – strong. A gentle 9 mph ESE offshore wind and clean conditions. Monday morning tops it off with 5 ft SSW swell, 13-second period, 928 energy, and glassy conditions with a light 3 mph ESE breeze. That Sunday-Monday weekend run is the one to plan around, though we’re a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

Overall, Wednesday August 12 morning and that Sunday August 23 afternoon into Monday August 24 are the clear winners. Everything else is small, choppy, or just not worth the effort. Crowds at Koeel Bay can pop up sometimes, but mid-week and early mornings should keep it quiet.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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