Koeel Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a good, long look at what Koeel Bay has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some proper moments hiding in there.

Right off the bat, we're looking at a fairly exposed reef break that handles a south swell best. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a write-off, to be honest. Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are messy with onshore winds and poor surf. We've got a bit of energy on Thursday morning with combined swell energy at 1414, but the wind is wrong and the conditions are just not there. The weekend isn't much better, with Saturday the 15th offering only small 3ft waves from the southwest. It's clean, but barely worth paddling out for.

Now, here's the first real standout. Monday the 17th is your ticket. We've got a 5ft southwest swell rolling in with a period of 13 seconds, giving it some real push. The combined energy is a solid 632 in the morning, building to 838 by the afternoon. And the best part? It's glassy. Both morning and afternoon are showing glassy conditions. The wind is a slight air from the southwest, then swinging south. This is as clean as it gets, and the waves will have some shape to them. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

We get a bit of a lull after that with some onshore wind and rain showers on Tuesday the 18th, nothing special. Wednesday the 19th brings a bigger 5ft to 6ft swell from the south-southwest, but it's paired with a fresh offshore breeze from the southeast. The waves will be clean, but the energy is a bit all over the place. It's a bit of a high-performance day for experienced surfers only, with the swell size getting up there.

Another gap rolls in from Thursday the 20th through to Friday the 21st, with the swell dropping right back and the energy fading to under 400. Not worth getting wet for.

Then, hold onto your boardies. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are looking prime. Saturday morning starts clean with a light 3ft swell, but it's the afternoon that steals the show. We get a 5ft southwest swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy hits 735. The wind is a light breeze from the south, clean and cross-off. The sets will have proper length and power. Sunday the 23rd is another clean day with a moderate offshore breeze and a consistent 4ft swell. This is a solid little run of good surf.

Monday the 24th keeps the good form going with moderate offshore winds and a 4ft southwest swell. The energy is still respectable at 638. A very good, consistent spell.

After that, the swell fades again through Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th, dropping to tiny 1ft waves with very low energy. Not much happening.

But don't write the forecast off yet. Looking ahead to Thursday the 27th, the afternoon brings a return to glory. We get a 5ft southwest swell with a 16-second period and the energy jumps back up to 1085. The wind goes glassy from the southeast. This is a long-period groundswell, which will wrap beautifully around this reef, offering some proper, powerful lines. And then Friday the 28th morning looks like the encore: another 5ft swell, glassy conditions, and a combined energy of 1145. This is a distant forecast, but if it holds, it could be the best of the whole run.

So, to sum it up: forget the first few days. Your best bets are Monday the 17th for the perfect glassy conditions and consistent waves, and then the Saturday 22nd through Monday 24th stretch for a longer run of clean, solid surf. Keep an eye on that final Thursday and Friday for a potential big finish. If you're a beginner, stick to the smaller days like Saturday the 15th or the 3ft to 3ft days later in the run. Anything over 5ft, like on Wednesday the 19th, is for the experienced crew only.

Stay wet, stay keen.

- Rusty

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