Koeel Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surf is finally gonna show up around here after a bit of a slow start. We’ve got a 16-day window, and the first few days are a write-off with junk wind and lumpy conditions. It’s not until Saturday the 15th that we get a real chance to paddle out, and even then it’s small. The real juice shows up later, though, so let’s break it down.

The first real opportunity is Saturday morning the 15th at Koeel Bay (Koeel-Bay). It’s early, so don’t expect much—just 3ft of swell from the SW with a 14-second period, but the wind is glassy, which makes it clean. The water is running much colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 56°F, a solid 4°F below average, so grab the booties. The energy is weak at this point, only 292 units, so it’s really about getting a few clean ones on a longboard. Not a standout, just a warm-up.

Sunday the 16th is a step back—cross-onshore wind kicks up, and the swell bumps slightly to 3-4ft, but it’s lumpy and choppy. Not worth your time.

Monday the 17th is where things start to get interesting. Morning has that glass again, swell pushes to 5ft from the SW at 13 seconds, and the energy is building—721 units. It’s clean and should be fun. The afternoon goes cross-off with a light breeze, and the energy jumps to 1185, making it a solid session for intermediate surfers. This is the first day I’d actually get excited about a proper surf.

Tuesday the 18th is arguably the pick of the first week. Morning has light offshore wind from the SE, 5ft of SW swell at 12 seconds, and a big energy jump to 1228. Clean lines, good shape. Afternoon drops slightly in energy to 746 but still cross-off and clean. This is a standout—definitely one of the best on offer so far.

Then we hit a bit of a lull from Wednesday the 19th through Friday the 21st. The swell drops back, the winds get messy, and it’s mostly marginal or poor. Don’t bother.

Now, the big one. Saturday the 22nd. This is the standout of the whole forecast. Swell jumps to 10-12ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, and the energy is huge—5174 in the morning, ramping to 6290 in the afternoon. This is a serious groundswell. The wind is cross-off and clean, which is rare for a swell this size. This is only for experienced surfers—at 12ft, it’s well over the 8ft mark, so it’s expert territory only. Koeel Bay is a reef, so this kind of swell with this period is going to line up nicely. But be aware, at this size it’s not just big, it’s powerful. The morning might be the smarter window before the afternoon peak.

Sunday the 23rd is still big—10ft in the morning with clean cross-off winds, energy at 3580. Still expert stuff, but the afternoon drops to 8ft and gets a bit more manageable, though it’s marked as marginal. If you’re good, the morning is the session.

Monday the 24th is still big at 7ft, clean offshore in the morning with energy at 1650. This is more manageable for strong intermediates, but still a step up. Afternoon drops slightly and gets a bit more cross-off.

From Tuesday the 25th onwards, it eases off. Tuesday is a fun 5ft with clean conditions, good for a push. Wednesday the 26th is another standout—morning is totally glassy with 6ft of SW swell and 1127 energy, then the afternoon pushes to 7ft with clean cross-off winds and 1610 energy. That’s a really good day for anyone with a bit of experience.

The last few days, from the 27th to the 29th, fade out. Winds get messy, swell drops back to 3-5ft, and it’s back to ordinary conditions. Not worth planning around.

So, overall: the real gems are the 18th, the 22nd, and the 26th. The 22nd is the big one for experts, the 18th is the cleanest fun-size day, and the 26th is a great all-rounder. First week has a slow start, second week has the punch.

Rusty.

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