Koeel Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve only got one spot on the radar for the next couple of weeks, Koeel Bay. That’s the call – a reef break that’s fairly consistent and takes a south swell.

The window kicks off on Saturday afternoon, August 8th, with a chunky 8ft SW swell running at 14 seconds. That’s a lot of energy moving through – the combined energy is sitting at a hefty 2390. The problem is that wind is a cross-off from the south at 12 mph, which keeps it clean but the report flags it as marginal. Sunday morning, August 9th, actually drops a bit to 5ft from the SW, but a strong 22 mph SSE wind is making things messy. The real standout pops up on Sunday afternoon, August 9th. The models are showing a solid 12ft SSW swell with a 12-second period and the combined energy jumps to an insane 4941. The wind is a cross-off, but the report says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a heavy, expert-only proposition. The water temperature is sitting at 59°, which is about normal for this time of year.

Monday the 10th settles down a bit with a 6ft S swell in the morning, and the wind is cross-off, but the surf is still marginal. The afternoon gets a bit of offshore wind from the SE, and the swell bumps up to 7ft from the south, but it’s still not looking like a classic.

Tuesday the 11th is where the gear starts to shift. The morning brings a 6ft S swell with a solid 12-second period, and we’ve got a clean offshore ESE wind at 12 mph. The report says this is excellent for experienced surfers. The combined energy is a solid 1550. The afternoon eases off to 4ft from the SSW with a gentle offshore from the east. It’s good, but the morning is the pick.

Now, hold on to your boards. Wednesday the 12th is the absolute stand-out of the whole forecast. The morning is glassy – zero wind from the ENE, and a 4ft SW groundswell with a massive 19-second period. The combined energy is a strong 1578, so there’s heaps of push even though the height is modest. That’s a very long period swell, which at a reef break like Koeel Bay is going to produce some beautifully lined-up, clean waves. The afternoon is just as good, with glassy conditions and a 4ft SW swell at 18 seconds. This is as good as it gets.

Thursday the 13th keeps the quality high. The morning has a 5ft SW swell at 18 seconds with a light offshore cross-off, and the afternoon drops to 4ft at 16 seconds with a clean offshore from the ESE. Excellent conditions.

After that, the swell starts to fade. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th see the size drop to under 3 feet, and the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, making it pretty ordinary. Sunday the 16th is a bit of a reprieve with a 3ft SW swell and a gentle offshore from the SE, but it’s small. The pattern from Monday the 17th onward is a real letdown. The swell drops to a pathetic 1ft by the 20th, and the wind is mostly cross-onshore or offshore but on tiny, gutless waves. The combined energy falls to under 100 on the 19th. The last shimmer of hope comes on Sunday, August 23rd, with a 3ft SSW swell and a clean offshore ESE wind, but it’s small. It’s a long wait from the glory days of the 12th.

So, bottom line: the best surf on offer is the Wednesday, August 12th session. The morning glass-off with that 19-second SW groundswell is the clear winner. The Tuesday morning of the 11th is a close second. After that, it’s a slow fade to nothing.

Rusty.

Read more