Mtati Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got one spot on the radar, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down.

First up, the overall pattern. We’ve got a solid run of groundswell coming through, but the wind is going to be the main character in this story. For the first few days, there’s a fair bit of onshore wind mucking things up, but there are clear windows of glassy or offshore conditions that will make it all worthwhile. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The real standout of the whole period is Friday morning, 24th July. We’ve got a clean 8ft SSW groundswell with a very long period of 16 seconds pushing in. The combined swell energy is strong, clocking in at 4215. The wind is light, so there will be a few ripples, but it’s manageable. This is a big swell for the river mouth, and it’s going to be working. The longer period means the sets will have some real punch, and the gaps between them will make paddling out a bit easier. For experienced surfers, this is the pick of the bunch.

But hold on. Saturday morning, 25th July is also a winner. The swell drops slightly to 7ft, still from the SSW, with a solid 14-second period. The kicker? The wind is dead calm – glassy as a mirror. The combined energy is still strong at 1705. This is going to be smooth, clean, and powerful. If you can get out there, you’ll be grinning.

Now, for the rest of the week. Wednesday afternoon the 22nd is a write-off with a strong 12 mph onshore wind. Thursday is a scratch session too. The Friday afternoon 24th sees the swell jump to 10ft, which is too big for this spot, so give it a miss unless you’re a pro. Saturday afternoon 25th is clean but smaller.

Sunday, 26th July, is a good shout. The morning session has a 6ft SSW swell with a 12-second period, and a gentle offshore wind from the NE. It’s clean, it’s working, and the combined energy is 831 – moderate. The afternoon drops off a bit but stays clean.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. Monday 27th and Tuesday 28th are messy with strong onshore winds, though Tuesday morning has a glassy 10ft S swell that is too big for the break. The rest of the week is a write-off with choppy, onshore conditions. The only glimmer is Wednesday morning, 5th August, which has a 3ft SSW groundswell with a very long 16-second period, but the wind is light cross-onshore. It’s not going to be clean, but there’s a bit of energy there (787).

After that, the swell flatlines. The last few days of the outlook are tiny, with onshore winds, and not worth paddling out for. There’s a gap of several days from the 30th of July through to the 3rd of August that are pretty poor, with only a few marginal windows.

So, to sum it up: Friday morning, 24th July and Saturday morning, 25th July are your two standouts. The first is a big, long-period groundswell with light wind, and the second is glassy and clean. Get on it. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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