J-Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s on the table for J-Bay over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming our way, but the wind and conditions are going to be the real story.

The first few days are a bit of a mixed bag. Saturday the 18th is a write-off with marginal surf and a cross-off wind, so don’t bother. Sunday the 19th morning looks cleaner with a light W wind at 3 mph and a 5 ft SW swell, but it’s not exactly firing. The real turnaround starts Monday morning the 20th. That’s where we get our first standout.

Monday morning, July 20th, is the one to circle. The wind is light offshore from the W at 3 mph, and we’ve got a clean 7 ft SW swell with a 10-second period. The wave energy is getting serious at 2344 (moderate to strong). The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year at 64°, with a -2° anomaly, so it’s noticeably cooler than average. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – the sets will have some punch, and the offshore wind will keep the faces glassy. The crowd is sometimes a factor here, so expect company.

Tuesday the 21st sees the swell period jump to 15 seconds, which is proper groundswell. That’s best for the point and reef sections at J-Bay, but it can be a bit straight at the beach break. Morning has a light cross-on breeze, and the afternoon turns onshore, so it’s not the premium window.

Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd offer clean cross-off winds with SW swell in the 7 ft to 10 ft range, but the energy is dropping and the conditions are just “marginal” – not bad, but not the pick.

Now, Friday morning, July 24th, is a monster. We’re looking at a 13 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period – that’s very long period groundswell. The combined energy is 7473 (very strong). Wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-off from the WSW. This is huge, powerful, and will only be for experts. The wave energy is massive, so if you’re not ready for it, stay on the sand. The afternoon drops to 12 ft but still solid.

Saturday the 25th morning is clean again, with a 10 ft SW swell and offshore W wind at 3 mph. Still excellent for experienced surfers, but the morning is the window.

After the 25th, things get a bit messy. Sunday the 26th is small, and the wind turns onshore or cross-on for much of the next week. The swell stays solid through the 28th, 29th, and 30th, but the wind is onshore and strong – 19 to 22 mph from the SSE or ESE. That’s poor surf, choppy, and lumpy. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during those days.

Finally, we get a second standout in the long range. Saturday morning, August 1st, brings a 13 ft E swell with a 9-second period. The wind is glassy – ENE at 3 mph. That’s a rare, clean, glassy morning with a big swell, but short period (8 seconds). It’s excellent for experts, but the short period means it’ll be a bit crumbly and gutless for a size that big. The real gem is Sunday morning, August 2nd. That’s the standout of the whole run. A 13 ft ESE swell with an 11-second period, and it’s glassy – W wind at 3 mph. The combined energy is 6324 (very strong). This is exceptional surf for expert surfers, with clean, powerful, long-period groundswell. It’s a long way out, so it’s promising but less certain, but if it comes together, it’s the best of the lot.

So, to wrap it up: the best on offer is Monday morning July 20th for clean, strong surf, and the long-range Sunday morning August 2nd for a potential epic, glassy, big swell session. The rest of the time is either marginal, windy, or only for the brave.

Rusty.

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