Keurbooms Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here with a good hard look at what Keurbooms has in store for us. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming our way over the next couple of weeks, so let’s break it down.

The main story is that we’re starting off with a big, raw day on Monday the 14th, but the real standout is later on, a proper groundswell that’s going to make Wednesday the 16th the one to circle. The water is weirdly cold right now; at 58°F it’s a full 5°F colder than usual for this time of year. That’s a serious anomaly, so don’t forget a thick suit.

Let's start with Monday the 14th. The morning shows a solid 8 ft swell rolling in from the ESE, and the best part? It’s glassy, with only a 3 mph breeze from the NE. The combined energy is pumping at 1657 (moderate wave energy), but this is strictly for the experienced crew. That’s a lot of power, and it might be a bit much for the average surfer.

The afternoon on Monday drops off a bit. The swell eases to 7 ft from the ESE, but the wind swings to the S at 6 mph, putting a cross-on bump on it. It gets a bit scrappy, and the energy drops to 1330 (moderate wave energy). Worth a look if you're desperate, but not firing.

Tuesday the 15th is a letdown after Monday. The morning has a 5 ft ESE swell at 11 seconds, but with a cross-on wind from the SSE at 3 mph, it's small and a bit bumpy. The energy is down to 825 (weak to moderate). The afternoon cleans right up though. It goes glassy with a 3 mph breeze from the ENE, and the swell is a clean 4 ft from the east. Energy is 737 (moderate). It’s small, but it’ll be clean and fun for a log or a fish.

Now, listen up, because this is the best of the whole run. Wednesday the 16th. The morning is the one. We’ve got a groundswell building to 10 ft from the southwest, with a long, powerful 14-second period. It’s blowing offshore with a WNW wind at 9 mph. The energy is a massive 3147 (moderate wave energy). This is proper. That long period will wrap in nicely, but this is big – definitely expert territory – and Keurbooms is an exposed beach, so it might be a bit too much if it's closing out. But that offshore wind? That’s the stuff. The afternoon sees the swell drop to 5 ft from the SW with the same period, but the wind goes onshore from the SSE, ruining the party.

Thursday the 17th is a write-off. The swell is 8 ft from the SW with a 13-second period, but the wind screams from the ESE at 16 mph, creating a choppy, blown-out mess. Energy is 2444 (moderate wave energy), but it’s all for nothing.

Friday the 18th is more of the same – poor conditions with strong cross-on winds and a lumpy sea. Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th see the swell pump up again to 12 ft from the ESE, but the wind is either cross-on or cross-shore and onshore. The energy is huge – 5218 on Sunday morning (very strong wave energy) – but the quality is gone. This is kite-surf territory, not a paddle session.

Monday the 21st offers a reprieve. The swell drops to a more manageable 6 ft from the SSE, and the wind is a clean cross-off from the WSW at 9 mph. The energy is 1269 (moderate wave energy). It’ll be clean and rideable for intermediates.

The rest of the run from the 22nd into the first week of October is a mix of small to moderate swells, often with onshore or cross-onshore wind. You’ll find moments of clean surf, like the afternoon of the 25th with a 5 ft E swell and light cross-off wind, or the morning of the 27th with a 6 ft SW groundswell (14-second period), but the wind will often be an issue. The energy levels stay in the moderate range, mostly between 800 and 1500.

Overall, the absolute standout is the morning of Wednesday the 16th of September. Big SW groundswell, offshore wind, powerful and clean – but for experts only. The rest of the fortnight is a waiting game with a few small windows of clean conditions.

Rusty, signing off.

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