Fence (Port Elizabeth) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. The water here at Fence is running a bit colder than usual for this time of year, about 64°F – it's noticeably chillier than average for September.

We're looking at a bit of a waiting game for the first week or so. There's some surf on offer, but a lot of it's marginal, and there are some proper dud days mixed in. Wind and conditions are all over the shop, and we don't see any clean, solid surf until we get into the back half of this 16-day window.

Let's be straight with you: this weekend is a washout. Friday morning kicks off with a clean-looking 4ft SW swell, but it's cross-off and the energy is only moderate (508), so it's not going to be anything special. The rest of Friday goes downhill fast. Saturday's a mess with onshore ESE wind and a gutless SE swell. Then Sunday rolls in, and it's proper ugly – a big 12ft E swell (3068 energy) but it's onshore and howling at 25-28 mph. That's not for paddling, that's a full-on storm surf. Not your day.

Monday the 14th is where things start to look up a little. Still not huge, but there's a real window in the afternoon. The swell eases to 7ft, energy is still solid at 1115, but the wind swings to a light cross-off from the NNW, and the forecast is for very good surf conditions. This is the first proper standout of the period. The swell direction is from the ESE, which is a bit off from the SE optimum for Fence, but the clean conditions make up for it. The period is 10 seconds, which keeps it manageable.

After that, we slip back into mediocrity. Tuesday and Wednesday are just not worth the paddle, with bumpy conditions and mixed swell. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are more cross-onshore and choppy. There's some size on the 18th – 5ft to 5ft – but the wind is just not your friend.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. The real gem in this forecast is the morning of Friday the 25th of September. It's a week and a half away, but it's got all the makings of something special. We're seeing a solid 8ft swell from the east, with a combined energy reading of 2322, which is strong. The wind is set to be a moderate cross-off from the WSW, which should groom it clean. The optimum direction for Fence is SE, so this is a bit off, but the size and the clean conditions will still make for a proper day out. This is the standout, the one you circle on the calendar. It's a long-range call, so don't book the day off work just yet, but it's promising.

The morning of Monday the 22nd is also worth a mention. It's not as big – around 3ft – but the wind is a fresh offshore from the WSW, and it'll be clean as a whistle. There's a heavy rain warning though, so it'll be a wild and wet one. Good for those who don't mind a bit of fresh water on their face.

So, to sum it up. The next few days are a write-off, a couple of glimmers midweek, but the one to get excited about is the 25th. That Friday has the size, the energy, and the clean wind to be a proper session. Keep your fingers crossed the forecast holds. This is Rusty, signing off.

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