Pipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up. We're looking at a classic North Shore set-up, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The main event is Pipe, a world-class reef that’s inconsistent but when it turns on, there’s nowhere else you’d rather be. Water temp is sitting at 63°F, which is a solid 4°F colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll want a good 4/3.

The week starts off Monday the 3rd with a bit of a whimper. We’ve got some ESE swell rolling in, around 6ft, but the cross-shore wind and a score that’s just not there means the morning is only for the keen. By the afternoon, the wind turns onshore and it’s flat out poor. Tuesday and Wednesday are much the same story – small, ordinary waves at best with cross-shore winds.

Thursday the 6th is where we start to see a flicker. Morning brings a clean bump in the water with a solid 6ft SSW groundswell. The period is a nice and punchy 14 seconds, and with a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSW, Pipe will have some proper shape. The combined energy is solid at 1212, so you can feel the push. Friday morning the 7th is very similar – clean 5ft SSW swell, great period of 15 seconds, and light winds. That’s a good window. Saturday the 8th morning stays clean and fun with 5ft SSW swell, though the afternoon gets blown out by a strong 19 mph SW wind.

We hit a rough patch from Sunday the 9th through Tuesday the 11th. Even though there’s some size – 6ft to 7ft – the southerly winds are strong and messy, making it a complete write-off for a clean ride. You’d be fighting chop and lump, not surfing.

After a couple of so-so days mid-week, look at Thursday the 13th. That’s a sneaky good morning. We get a very long period 17-second SSW groundswell at 4ft. The combined energy is still high (1108) for the size because of that period. That kind of long-period swell will wrap into Pipe beautifully, offering long, lined-up walls, but it might be a bit straight at other spots. Winds are light and offshore, so the surface will be like glass. Friday the 14th afternoon also cleans up with 6ft SSW swell under a good cross-off breeze.

Now, the standout. If you can wait, Saturday the 15th morning is your best bet of the whole outlook. We’re looking at 7ft of clean, powerful SSW groundswell with a 15-second period. The combined energy is massive at 2034. Winds are light and offshore from the SW, making for pristine conditions. At 7ft, this is getting into expert territory at Pipe – it’s a heavy, shallow reef, and that’s when it shows its true face. This will not be a beginner’s wave. The crowds at Pipe are always possible, and on a day like this, you can bet the lineup will be thick. But for those who can handle it, this is the session.

The swell slowly winds down over the next few days, but Sunday the 16th morning still offers clean 5ft waves. After that, we’re back to onshore chop and poor quality through to Tuesday the 18th.

For now, get your board ready. The second half of next week looks promising, and that Saturday is one to circle on the calendar.

- Rusty

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