Weld Road Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at the only spot on the board for this run. It’s a wild ride, so let’s get straight to it.

We’re talking about Weld Road (reef) . This is for the intermediate crowd and above. It’s fairly consistent, it’s exposed to the swell, and it loves a good SW direction. Water temp is pretty normal for this time of year, no big surprises. The whole story here is a classic case of *too much power*.

Right off the bat on Sunday the 30th, we’re looking at a solid 10ft SW groundswell coming in (combined energy of 1715 – moderate energy). The morning has a cross-off breeze, which is a good sign, but the wave comment says it’s marginal, so don’t get your hopes up. By the afternoon, the wind goes cross-shore and the surface gets lumpy.

Now Monday the 31st is a beast. Swell jumps to a massive 16ft from the WSW, with a long 14-second period. The combined energy rockets into the thousands (9122 in the morning, 10072 in the arvo) – that’s strong to very strong energy. But the wind is screaming at 22 mph, making a mess of the lineup. The forecast calls it poor surf conditions. This is heavy, dangerous water. Unless you’re a certified expert with a lot of experience, this is a day to stay on the beach.

There are a few windows in the first week that look decent on paper, but they come with a warning. Take Tuesday the 1st of September: the swell drops a little, and the wind tries to behave. The morning has cross-off winds and waves at 16ft with a 14-second period. But here’s the problem: the data keeps saying the swell is too big for this break. Even with clean wind, 15ft to 16ft on a reef is a beast. That’s expert-only, and even then, it’s a big ask. There’s a gap of a few days where it’s just too big or too windy to paddle.

The first true standout doesn’t arrive until Saturday the 12th of September. It’s a long way out, so treat it as a promising possibility, but it’s a beauty on paper. We’ve got a 6ft WSW swell with a period of 16 seconds – that’s very long period groundswell. The combined energy is still fresh at 2067, but the conditions are the story. The wind is offshore and light, swinging SW at 6 mph in the afternoon. For a reef, this is what dreams are made of. The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. The size is manageable, the direction is perfect, and the wind will polish it up. This is the session to aim for. Just remember, long period swells can make a reef stand up steep and dumpy – it’s a challenge, but a good one. Crowds are possible, so plan accordingly.

The final few days, like the 14th, show some cleaner conditions but the swell is fading and the windows are short. The rest of the second week is mostly bumpy, cross-onshore wind and sloppy waves. Not much to get excited about.

So here’s the takeaway: most of the first week is either too big or too blown out. The real gold is the afternoon of Saturday the 12th of September at Weld Road. That’s the one to chase.

Rusty.

Read more