Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for this stretch. Right now, there’s a bit of a wait on our hands. The first decent surf doesn’t show up until the morning of Monday the 31st of August, and even then, it’s nothing to write home about. We’re looking at a long gap of almost nothing before that, so just sit tight.

The first real chance to paddle out comes Monday morning, the 31st of August, at Dairy Beach (New Pier). The water’s sitting at 70°, which is about average for this time of year. We’ve got a 4ft swell rolling in from the East, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (223). The wind is a light cross-off from the S at 9 mph, keeping things clean. It’s surfable, but pretty ordinary. The afternoon stays much the same, cross-off wind from the SSE at 6 mph, the swell bumping up to 4ft with a slightly longer 10-second period, and energy a bit higher (247). It’s still just average, though.

Then we hit a dry spell. Tuesday the 1st of September is a write-off with onshore wind and messy conditions. Wednesday the 2nd is clean but the swell is weak and the wind is strong in the morning – not worth it. Thursday the 3rd is a mess of onshore wind and chop.

Friday the 4th of September sees a change. The morning is clean with a 7ft swell from the South, 8-second period, and strong energy (789). The wind is cross-off from the S at 19 mph. It’s marginal, but the swell is building. The afternoon gets real interesting: a 10ft South swell with a 10-second period, and the energy jumps to a very strong (1635). It’s clean, cross-off wind from the SSE at 19 mph. This is getting big – over 8ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. The size and the cross-off wind make it a standout for the crew that can handle it.

Saturday the 5th of September is the morning to aim for. We’ve got a 8ft swell from the SE, 9-second period, with strong energy (1123). The wind is light from the SSE at 6 mph, making for glassy, clean conditions. This is the best on offer in the whole outlook. The swell direction is from the SE, which matches the optimum for the break, and the light wind will have it looking like a mirror. The size is in the sweet spot for intermediates – not too big, not too small. Crowds are often a thing here, so expect some company. The afternoon sees a drop in swell and a cross-on wind, so don’t sleep on the morning session.

Sunday the 6th of September is a monster. The swell hits 12ft from the South, 9-second period, with extreme energy (2206) in the morning, and even bigger in the afternoon (3661). The wind is cross-off, but the forecast flat-out says it’s too big for this break. Leave this one for the kites, or just watch from the beach.

Monday the 7th of September keeps the 12ft South swell going, but the period jumps to a very long 15 seconds in the morning. That’s a groundswell with massive energy (4726). This kind of long-period swell will be lining up, but at a beach break like Dairy, it might break too straight. The size is still over 8ft, so it’s expert-only. The afternoon drops to 10ft with a 14-second period, still huge and powerful.

Things settle down from Tuesday the 8th of September onward. The swell drops to the 6ft to 7ft range, with moderate energy, but the wind is mostly cross-off and clean. The standout here is the morning of Thursday the 10th of September. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the ENE, 8-second period, with moderate energy (558), and a light cross-off wind from the SSW at 6 mph. The conditions are clean, and while the swell is a bit short-period, the light wind makes it a solid option for a paddle.

The rest of the run into the second week, from the 11th of September onward, is a mix of onshore winds, messy conditions, and poor surf. The 13th and 14th look particularly grim with strong onshore winds. The 15th of September has a tiny 4ft East swell with light onshore wind – not worth suiting up.

So, if you’re looking for a true standout, it’s the morning of Saturday the 5th of September – clean, glassy, and a solid 8ft SE swell. The other big moment is the afternoon of Friday the 4th of September, but that’s for the big-wave crew only. For the rest of it, you’ll be scratching for a wave.

Rusty.

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