Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get stuck into the local forecast for the next couple of weeks, focusing on our main spot.

Right off the bat, the next few days are a write-off, I’m sorry to say. Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th are a total no-go with onshore breezes and weak slop. Thursday the 9th stays pretty average – a tiny bit of swell, but still just ordinary. The real window looks set to open up for us around Friday the 10th.

Friday morning will see a fresh, solid 7ft S groundswell rolling in with a very long period of 15 seconds. It’s got a heap of energy behind it (2079), but the wind is light and cross in the morning, which means a bit of bump. The afternoon is where it gets interesting – the swell builds to 8ft S, still with that long 16-second period, energy jumps to 3175, and the wind swings cross-off. That combination is going to produce excellent, clean surf, but I’d only send the experienced crew out there. Over 8ft is expert territory.

Now, if you want the absolute standout of the entire run, it’s looking like Saturday the 11th, early morning. We’ve got a very clean 6ft S groundswell (13-second period) and the wind is dead glassy, light ENE. The energy is still strong (1188), and under glassy conditions that point break setup (Dairy Beach, New Pier) is going to be firing and super clean. The optimum swell is from the east, and this is coming from the south, but the quality and conditions are too good to ignore. Keep in mind, it can be a bit of a lineup for dawn patrol, so expect a crowd, but it’ll be worth it.

Sunday the 12th keeps some S swell around 5ft, but the period drops to 7 seconds in the morning, making it a bit weaker and less organised. The wind goes offshore, so it’ll be clean, just not the same quality.

The middle of the week (Monday 13th to Thursday 16th) settles into a more consistent but ordinary pattern. Expect knee-to-waist high S/SE swell with clean conditions, but it’s nothing to write home about. Things go quiet again from the 15th afternoon right through to the 19th of July, with mostly poor, onshore conditions.

Looking further ahead, we get another possible blast around Sunday the 19th. An 8ft S swell arrives with cross-off winds, but the wind is moderate, so it’ll be bumpy and marginal. The water temp is sitting around 72° right now, which is about average for the time of year, so the 3/2mm steamer is still the call.

Finally, mark your calendar for Wednesday the 22nd of July. The models are throwing up a massive 12ft S swell with a 12-second period and early light cross-off winds. The energy reading is huge (3500), but the problem is that big a swell is predicted to be simply too large for this break, stuff will be closing out and dangerous for all but the most experienced. It could be a spectacle, but not a session for most of us.

Rusty.

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