Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s cooking at Dairy Beach (New Pier) over the next couple of weeks.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – the first week and a half is a pretty tough slog. We’ve got a long stretch of marginal to poor conditions, with a lot of onshore wind and small, weak swell. The water’s sitting at 70°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing to get excited about. There’s a real gap in quality surf from now until the end of August.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th have some east swell around 3ft to 6ft, but it’s short period (8-10 seconds) and the wind is all wrong – onshore or cross-off. The combined energy is weak to moderate (between 162 and 597), and the conditions are just poor. It’s not worth paddling out.

Wednesday the 19th stays small and onshore, with swell dropping to 3ft. Thursday the 20th afternoon sees a bit of a bump with a 6ft south swell, but the energy is only moderate (541) and it’s flagged as marginal. Not your best bet.

Friday the 21st brings a bigger south groundswell – 5ft with a 14-second period and strong energy (1002) – but again, the wind is onshore from the NE. It’s a frustrating tease. That pattern of onshore wind and small, messy swell continues right through until the end of the month.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday the 30th of August, look out. The afternoon brings a solid 10ft south swell with a 9-second period. The combined energy is strong at 1830. The wind is a light cross-off from the SSE, keeping things clean. This is a standout for experienced surfers only – it’ll be too big for beginners. The break is a beach/pier setup, so it might handle the size okay.

But the real highlight – the one you’ve been waiting for – is Monday the 31st of August morning. We’ve got a 10ft south swell with a 13-second period, and the wind is offshore from the SSW at 22 mph. That’s clean, powerful, and the combined energy is pumping at 2900. This is proper groundswell, and it’s going to be epic for the crew who can handle it. The offshore wind will groom it beautifully. That afternoon, the wind swings cross-off, but the swell holds.

Then Tuesday the 1st of September morning is another cracker: 7ft south swell, 16-second period – that’s some serious long-period groundswell – and the combined energy is 2398. The wind is light and cross-off, so it’s glassy and clean. That long period might make it a bit walled at a beach break, but for the experienced guys, it’s going to be a session to remember. The afternoon gets ruined by onshore wind again.

So, bottom line: the first week and a half is a write-off. Don’t bother. But mark your calendar for Sunday the 30th of August onwards, especially Monday the 31st morning and Tuesday the 1st of September morning. That’s where the magic is. It’s a long-range forecast, so keep an eye on it, but it’s looking promising.

Rusty.

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