Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking at Dairy Beach (New Pier) for the next 16 days. I gotta be straight with you – this stretch is a tough one. The good news doesn’t come easy, and there’s a long, quiet patch you’ll have to sit through.

The first half of the outlook is a bust. From Wednesday the 9th right through to the morning of Monday the 14th, it’s mostly onshore wind, messy lines, and poor conditions. The swell is there, but it’s short-period windswell (7-8 seconds) and the wind is blowing straight onshore, trashing any chance of a clean wave. You’ll see a few smaller windows on Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th with cleaner conditions, but the swell drops right down to 3 ft to 4 ft, with weak energy (around 130-239). It’s surfable for a beginner maybe, but nothing to write home about.

The real troubles hit on Monday the 14th. The wind cranks up to 31 mph from the NE in the afternoon, shoving a 12 ft, 8-second stormy mess onshore. The energy is through the roof at 1659, but it’s just a raw, ugly, blown-out wall. Not for paddling – this setup is more interesting for kite surfing than a traditional surf.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Tuesday the 15th morning through to the morning of Friday the 18th, the conditions start to clean up, but the swell is still a mixed bag. The wind swings offshore and cross-offshore, which is a major positive. On Tuesday the 15th afternoon, you get a 5 ft, 8-second E swell with a cross-offshore SSW breeze at 16 mph – clean, but the energy is only moderate (317). The real standout in this stretch is Wednesday the 16th morning. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the SSE at 6 mph, with a clean 5 ft, 9-second E swell. The energy is moderate (374) and the conditions are glassy. This is the best morning of the first week, no doubt. The crowd can be often here, so expect some company.

Thursday the 17th is a different beast. The morning brings a solid 10 ft, 9-second groundswell from the S, with strong offshore wind from the SSW at 25 mph. The energy is very strong (1468). This is a big, powerful, clean swell, but a 10 ft wave is for experts only. The strong offshore wind will hold the wave face up, but it’ll be a battle to get out. The swell period is 9 seconds, so it’s not a classic long-period groundswell, but it’s got punch. The afternoon drops to 8 ft.

After that, the swell drops off again. The end of the week and the weekend (18th-20th) sees poor conditions return with onshore winds and small, weak swell. The energy drops to 165-295.

Now, the second week holds a real surprise. The forecast for Monday the 21st afternoon has a massive, very long-period groundswell rolling in from the S. We’re talking 8 ft, with an 18-second period! The energy is a huge 4002. The wind is cross-offshore from the S at 22 mph, so it’ll be clean. This is a true, long-period groundswell. At Dairy Beach (a beach/pier setup), a 18-second swell can break straight and fast, so it’s a bit of a caveat – it’s better suited for a point or reef break. But for experts, this is the standout session of the entire outlook. This is a long-range call, so it’s promising but less certain.

The rest of the second week (22nd-24th) gets messy again. The swell direction swings back to the SE and S, but the wind is onshore from the NE, and the swell period drops back to 7-14 seconds with moderate to strong energy. The water temperature is about average for the time of year.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off except for the clean, glassy Wednesday the 16th morning. The real gold is the Monday the 21st afternoon with that massive, clean, expert-level groundswell. Keep your eyes peeled on that one.

Rusty.

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