Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a mixed bag, so you gotta pick your moments. We’ve got some clean windows, but also some proper blowouts to dodge.

Right off the bat, Friday the 11th, and the weekend through to Sunday morning, it’s pretty sad. We got ankle to knee-high slop, crossed-up winds, and just not much energy. The swell is there, but it’s weak, and just messy. You’re better off doing something else.

Sunday arvo is when things start to shuffle. We see a push to about 5 feet at 7 seconds from the ENE, but that period is way too short, and it’s cross-on. Marginal at best. The combined energy does jump, but the quality just isn't there.

Monday the 14th is a full write-off. The wind comes screaming in from the NE, with gusts hitting 37 mph. The swell builds to 13 feet, but it’s onshore junk. The energy readings are huge, but that’s just a washing machine. Unless you’re into getting pounded, stay home. Looks more like a kite-surfing day to be honest.

Then we get a brief, semi-clean window Tuesday the 15th morning. It’s still lumpy, with 7 feet of east swell, but the wind is cross-off. It’s not great, but it’s the best we’ve seen. Don’t get too excited though.

Wednesday the 16th morning is a bit of a tease. Clean conditions with 5 feet at 10 seconds from the east. The waves will be there, but the wind turns nasty, strong and cross-off in the arvo, so get in early.

Thursday the 17th actually looks pretty decent. The swell drops a touch to just under 6 feet, but the period comes up, and the wind is light and cross-off. It’s clean and has a bit of push. This is a good one to mark on the calendar. We’re getting some proper juice.

After that, we hit another flat and messy patch from Friday the 18th to Sunday the 19th. Small, short-period, onshore. A real nothing-burger. The energy drops right down, and the quality is poor.

Now, check this out. Sunday the 20th arvo. The swell direction swings around to the south, and we get a long-period groundswell. We’re talking 5 feet at 20 seconds! The energy jumps to a powerful level. This is the standout, no question. The wind is a light cross-off, and it’s glassy. For a beach/pier set-up like Dairy Beach (New Pier), that super long period can make it a bit straight, but the power and the clean surface will make up for it. This is the pick of the two weeks, but it’s still a week out, so treat it with a bit of caution. This is a case where a long period swell at a beach break might be a little too straight, but the conditions are so good it’s still the one to go for.

Monday the 21st is a letdown after that. Back to small, ordinary surf. Tuesday the 22nd is wind-whipped with a strong cross-off, making it hard to paddle into. Wednesday the 23rd has size, pushing 8 feet, but a strong offshore wind is going to make it difficult to get into and pretty wild.

The rest of that week into the 24th and 25th is just average. Small to moderate, clean at times, but nothing special. The energy is moderate, but the periods are short.

Then we finish off the run on Saturday the 26th with onshore winds and a dropping, weak south swell. Not a classic way to end it.

So, bottom line? The water is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy. Your one true standout is that Sunday the 20th arvo session. The other solid bet is Thursday morning the 17th. Everything else is just making up the numbers, and we got some big gaps where it’s just not worth the paddle. There’s a good stretch of nothing from the 18th to the 19th, and another at the start of the run.

Rusty

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