Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Dairy Beach (New Pier). I’ve got to be straight with you – there’s a whole lot of nothing for the first several days, so don’t bother paddling out just yet. We’re talking a proper dry spell from Sunday the 30th of August right through to Thursday the 3rd of September. That’s nearly a full week of poor surf conditions as onshore and cross-off winds mess with small, weak energy.

Sunday the 30th starts off with a short-period 5-foot ENE swell, cross-off breeze, and overall poor surf quality. The combined wave energy is moderate though, but the wind is just too strong at 19 mph to make it enjoyable. Monday the 31st sees a drop in swell to 4 feet E with light winds, but the angle is wrong and the surf is just ordinary. Tuesday the 1st of September is even worse with onshore winds and a weak 4-foot E swell at a dreadful 6-second period. Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd are best skipped – onshore or cross-off slop.

Now, the first real standout happens way out on Friday the 4th of September. A serious pulse of S swell rolls in, hitting 18 feet with a period of 11 seconds. The combined swell energy is absolutely pumping – that’s very strong wave energy. The morning sees a fresh offshore SSW wind at 22 mph, which means clean, groomed faces. But – and this is a big but – 18 feet is massive. This is strictly for the experts. Beginners, stay well clear. The water temp is sitting at a very normal 70° for this time of year.

Into Saturday the 5th of September, we’ve still got a solid 12-foot S swell rolling through, but the wind swings cross-off and cross-shore, making it a bit lumpy. Still too big for most at over 8 feet. The wave energy is still strong.

Sunday the 6th of September goes ugly again as onshore NE winds blow 16-22 mph over a long-period 8-foot S swell. That’s a messy combo – long period groundswell like that (16 seconds) really needs a point break to wrap around, and Dairy Beach is a beach setup. Expect it to close out.

By Monday the 7th of September afternoon, things finally start to look interesting again. The swell drops to 7 feet from the E at 9 seconds, but the wind is a light cross-off from the SSW at only 9 mph. This is the second real highlight of the forecast. Clean, solid overhead surf with moderate wave energy. The crowd factor here is "often", so expect company if you paddle out.

The rest of the second week is mostly a write-off. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th get hammered by brutal SSW winds at 28 mph and 19 mph respectively. Small, clean but wind-affected surf. Thursday the 10th through Sunday the 13th is a repeat of onshore winds and weak swell – not worth the parking fee. The only flicker of hope is Saturday the 12th of September morning with a cross-off SSW wind over an 8-foot S swell, but the period is short (8 seconds) and the wave state is only marginal. Likely choppy and sectiony.

Monday the 14th of September sees a tiny 3-foot SE swell with a nice offshore SSW wind at 19 mph, but there’s just not enough size to do anything with it. Clean but flat.

So, the two days to circle on the calendar are Friday the 4th of September for the big-swell experts-only session, and Monday the 7th of September afternoon for the clean, solid overhead E swell with light winds. Everything else? Leave the board in the car, grab a coffee, and watch the horizon.

Catch ya in the water when it’s good.
Rusty.

Read more