Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down for Dairy Beach (New Pier) over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a couple of windows that’ll get the blood pumping.

We start off pretty flat and ordinary. Monday the 27th just isn’t happening – a messy 5ft swell from the NE with a short 6-second period gives us weak, bumpy waves. The water’s sitting at 73°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing too wild there. The afternoon does clean up with a solid offshore from the SSW, but the swell drops right away to 3ft and the energy is minimal (60). Not worth paddling out for.

Tuesday the 28th is a write-off. Tiny swell, poor conditions, and some rain. Leave the board in the car.

But then Wednesday the 29th looks like the real deal. We’ve got a solid 7ft swell pushing in from the SSE, with a 9-second period, and the wind is offshore out of the SW all day. The combined energy is strong at 800, so expect some proper punch. This is an intermediate break, and with waves over 5ft, beginners might find it a bit much, but for the rest of us, this is the standout of the whole forecast. The wind is clean, the waves are organised – it’s going to be fun.

Thursday the 30th keeps the size but the wind gets nasty. The morning’s offshore but blowing 22 mph, making it a battle to get out and the conditions are only marginal. By the afternoon, the swell hits 8ft, but the wind goes cross-off and the energy spikes to 1165 – that’s a lot of power, but the quality is poor, so it’s more for the experts or those on a tow-in.

Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August are still sizey, with 6ft to 8ft swells, but the wind is either cross-off or fresh, keeping the surface a bit lumpy. It’s surfable, but not the clean, groomed lines we had on Wednesday.

Now, Sunday the 2nd of August is a second highlight. The morning is pure magic: 7ft from the ESE, light offshore wind from the SW, and high energy at 813. The waves will be clean, powerful, and well-shaped. The afternoon stays big at 8ft, with a 11-second period, but the wind goes cross-shore, so the faces might get a bit of texture. Still, the morning session is the one to target.

After that, things go downhill. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th have size but the wind is onshore or cross-off, making it messy. The energy is still moderate to strong, but the quality isn’t there. Beginners might get a bit nervous with waves over 7ft.

From Wednesday the 5th of August right through to the end of the 16-day window, the surf drops off significantly. There’s a long gap of poor conditions with small, weak swells and onshore winds. The combined energy drops to below 200 most days, and the waves are mostly under 3ft. There’s a blip on Sunday the 9th where the swell jumps to 8ft, but it’s accompanied by a strong 25 mph onshore wind, so it’s just messy. And on Tuesday the 11th, there’s a 4ft, 15-second period groundswell from the S, but the wind is howling offshore at 28 mph, making it nearly impossible to paddle into.

So, the bottom line is this: get in the water on Wednesday the 29th for the best of the early run, and then Sunday morning the 2nd of August for the second window. The rest is either too windy, too small, or too messy to get excited about. That’s a solid week of flatness after the 4th, so don’t sleep on those two days.

Rusty

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