Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and get into what’s cooking at Dairy Beach (New Pier). We’ve got a real mixed bag coming up, with a few windows of absolute magic for the experienced crew, but plenty of days you’ll want to leave the board at home.

The pattern starts with a bang this Saturday, July 4th. The stars align perfectly in the morning with a clean 8 ft swell running out of the SSE at a solid 12 seconds. It’s glassy, it’s got heaps of power, with combined energy reading a strong 2204 – this is legit groundswell. This is for the experienced surfer only; at this size, beginners need to sit this one out. The afternoon holds that same quality with 7 ft waves and still glassy conditions (energy at 1426). This is the standout of the entire outlook. Pure Saturday bliss.

Things go downhill fast from Sunday the 5th through to Wednesday the 8th. We’re looking at onshore wind and dropping swell, with scores bottoming out. The combined energy drops from 751 right down to a weak 49 by Wednesday afternoon. That’s a long stretch of poor conditions and a waste of time.

Thursday the 9th shows some signs of life. The morning brings a clean 6 ft S swell with cross-off winds and the energy back up to a moderate 597. It’s surfable, but the afternoon gets tricky with a 7 ft S groundswell (13s period, energy 1756) spoiled by a light cross-onshore breeze – it’s got the push but loses the clean face.

Now, lock in Friday the 10th afternoon as your second major highlight. We’re talking a 6 ft S swell with a very long 15-second period and clean cross-off winds. The energy is a strong 1537. That’s proper power, perfectly groomed, and built for the better surfers on the lineup.

Saturday the 11th morning cranks it up a notch, but it’s for experts only. You’ve got a 8 ft S swell with a massive 16-second period – that’s exceptionally long period groundswell. Combined energy is a thumping 2630, and it’s clean with cross-off winds. Expect long lulls between the big sets, which will make paddling out a little easier, but when those walls stand up, they’ll be racing and powerful. Best at the peak.

From Sunday the 12th through the 15th, we drop back into a messy, onshore driven stretch with poor scores and generally weak wave energy.

Wednesday the 15th morning is a maybe – a clean 6 ft ENE swell, but the period is short and the energy is only moderate (457). It’s a non-event compared to what came before.

Keep an eye on Thursday morning, July 16th. The SSW wind turns solidly offshore at 25 km/h, and we get a 7 ft NE swell. It’s a short period (8s) jumble of energy (782), but that offshore wind will sculpt it up and keep it clean. It’s promising, but a week out, don’t get your hopes up too high just yet.

Finally, way out there on Sunday, July 19th, the models are hinting at a massive 12 ft S swell. The wind is light, but at that size, this break goes well beyond expert territory into “don’t even think about it” unless you’re on some serious equipment. That one’s a long-range whisper.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing too wild there. If you surf the Saturday or Friday standouts, gear up for a standard winter session.

Signing off,
Rusty

Read more