Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Alright, let's have a look at what's coming our way for Dairy Beach (New Pier). It's a beach and pier setup, fairly exposed to the swell, and it's a consistent spot. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so nothing crazy there.

The next 16 days start off a bit of a mixed bag. We've got some solid energy in the water early on, with combined swell energy readings in the 400s (433 and 453) on Wednesday the 22nd, but the wind is blowing straight onshore from the NNE and NE, so that's going to mess things up. Thursday the 23rd is a bit better with a light S wind, but the swell is small at 3ft, and the conditions are just "ordinary." Friday the 24th is a write-off with a strong SSW breeze, and while the wave energy jumps to 2086 in the afternoon, that 10ft swell is going to be a jumbled mess with that wind.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. On Saturday morning, July 25th, we've got a real standout. The wind is glassy from the E, and we're looking at a 6ft SSE swell with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 484, so it's got some grunt. This is the best on offer for the first week. The glassy conditions will make for clean, fun waves, and it's a great size for intermediates. Crowds are often, so get in early.

Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th are a return to onshore winds and messy surf. The swell is there but it's not worth the paddle. We then have a quiet run from Tuesday the 28th through to Thursday the 31st, with small, weak swells and mostly onshore or cross-onshore winds. The energy drops right down, with readings like 83 and 120. It's a real lull.

Then, we get a big shift. The best part of the outlook is the first week of August. On Saturday, August 1st, the morning is glassy from the ESE, with a 3ft S swell that has a very long period of 19 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 949, promising clean, powerful lines. This is a true standout for the long range – it's a groundswell, so it will be best at the pier, which handles that long period nicely. The only bummer is the afternoon turns cross-onshore, so make it a morning session.

On Sunday, August 2nd, we've got another glassy morning, this time with a 7ft ESE swell (9-second period) and energy of 728. That's a bit bigger, and still clean in the morning. Then on Monday, August 3rd, the swell jumps to 10ft from the E with energy over 3000. That's getting big – only for experts. The wind is onshore from the NE, so it's going to be a bit of a battle.

The real highlight for the experienced crew lands on Tuesday, August 4th. The afternoon sees an 12ft ENE swell with energy of 2307, and the wind is a cross-off from the SSE. That's a powerful, clean swell, but it's too big for this break for most people. The file says as much. Then Wednesday, August 5th, is the absolute best of the whole run. The morning has a 10ft ENE swell, offshore wind from the SW, and energy of 2032. The afternoon is similar with a 10ft ENE swell, offshore from the SSW, and energy of 2048. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers only. The wind is light and offshore, the wave energy is strong, and the swell is lined up. If you're a charger, this is your window.

The run finishes on Thursday, August 6th, with a more manageable 6ft E swell, light offshore wind, and clean conditions. A solid way to end the outlook.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a struggle, with the best window being Saturday morning the 25th. The second week is where the magic happens, with the standout being Wednesday, August 5th, for the big-wave crew. The morning of August 1st is also a cracker for cleaner, smaller waves.

Rusty.

Read more