Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I gotta be straight with you – for the next couple of weeks around Dairy Beach (New Pier), it’s a tough watch. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with hardly anything worth paddling out for, and then one big, powerful event that’s only for the brave.

The first few days are pretty much a write-off. There’s a massive pulse of energy on Saturday the 29th of August, with a big 10-foot swell from the ENE, but it’s packing a brutal 25 mph onshore wind. The combined energy is a very strong 1342, but with those winds, it’s just a messy, blown-out mess. Not for us.

Sunday the 30th is a bit smaller, around 5-foot, and the wind turns cross-off from the SSW at 19 mph, which cleans it up a fair bit. The energy drops to moderate at 402, but the quality is still poor. It’s a step in the right direction, but don’t get excited. The rest of that week and into the start of September is a real grind. The swell drops away completely, and the winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore. There are days with tiny, weak waves, like 1.5-foot and 2-foot, with energy dropping to as low as 50. Honestly, it’s a solid stretch of nothing from Sunday the 30th all the way through to Wednesday the 3rd of September.

Now, hold onto your board. The real story is Friday the 4th of September. A massive swell hits, with an 11.5-foot wave from the SSE at 10 seconds on Friday morning. The combined energy is a huge 2054, which is very strong. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the south, which is promising, and the report says the wind and tide are favorable. But, and this is a huge but, at 11.5-foot, this is only for experienced surfers. It’s predicted to be too big for this break. The afternoon drops to 10-foot with energy at 2667, but the quality is still marginal. This is the standout, but only if you know what you’re doing.

After that, the following week (from Saturday the 5th onwards) is patchy. We get a long-period groundswell on Sunday the 6th, with 6.5-foot at 14 seconds from the south, but with onshore winds, it’s messy again. The energy is strong at 1783, but it’s not clean. There’s a small window on Monday the 7th with 4.5-foot and a 31 mph offshore wind from the SW – that sounds good, but it’s a near gale, making it incredibly hard to paddle into. A real battle.

The short version? The first week is mostly a bust. The one true standout is the big, powerful swell on Friday the 4th of September, but it’s serious, expert-only stuff. Everything else is a struggle with small, weak, or wind-affected surf. The water temp is around 70°F, which is about average for the time of year.

Keep your eyes on the forecasts, but for now, save your energy for that big Friday if you’ve got the skill.

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