Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Dairy Beach (New Pier) over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the outlook is a bit of a mixed bag; we’ve got some size on the way, but the wind is going to be a real problem for most of it. The water temp is sitting at 69°, which is about normal for this time of year, so your wettie is fine.

We kick off on Saturday, September 5th, with a bit of bump. The morning starts with some clouds and a gentle breeze from the NE, pushing in a 7ft SSE swell. That’s got some moderate energy behind it (878), but the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy. The afternoon goes the same way with a 6ft swell. It’s not the best, but it’s surfable if you’re keen.

Sunday, September 6th, is a total write-off. We’re looking at light rain and a 4ft E swell, but the wind is onshore. It’s poor, so I’d leave the board in the car.

Now, Monday, September 7th, is where it gets interesting. The morning brings a solid 10ft S swell with a 17-second period. That’s 5033 of energy, which is strong. This is a long-period groundswell, which means it’ll have real punch and long waits between sets. Because it’s a beach-and-pier set-up, that long period could make it break a bit straight, but the size is there. The problem is the wind is a moderate onshore breeze from the NNE, which will mess it up. The afternoon cleans up a bit but the wind picks up to 16 mph. This is a day for the experts only, given the size. It’s a real shame about the wind, because without it, this would be the standout of the entire period.

The rest of that first week and into the second is a bit of a grind. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday all have some swell between 4ft and 10ft, but the wind is consistently onshore from the NE or E, gusting up to 22 mph at times. The wave energy is moderate to strong (reaching 1041 on Wednesday), but the quality is poor. It’s gonna be choppy and bumpy. For a beach break, it’s looking more like a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing dream.

We finally get a break in the wind on Friday, September 11th. The wind swings to the S and goes cross-offshore, leaving the surf clean. The swell is a bit smaller at 4ft to 5ft, with a short 8-second period. It’s small and clean, but the energy is low (302-314). It’s a solid “clean and small” day for the logs and fun shapes.

Saturday, September 12th, starts clean in the morning with a 3ft E swell (154 energy), but then the afternoon gets choppy again with a burst of rain. The coming week looks similar with small, clean waves in the mornings and onshore crud in the afternoons.

The real story for the second week (September 14th onward) is the return of the onshore wind. There’s a spike on the 20th with a 10ft S swell (2075 energy), but the wind is onshore again. It’s a pattern that just won’t let up.

So, the best on offer? If you’re an expert, the Monday, September 7th morning has the most power, but you’ll be battling the wind. For the average surfer, the Friday, September 11th and the mornings of the following week offer the cleanest conditions, but the swell is small. The standout window for clean, rideable waves is the Friday, September 11th morning for the cleanest conditions, and the Monday, September 14th morning for a bit more size (5ft) with clean cross-offshore wind.

Keep your eyes on the forecasts, because this pattern might shift. The long-range calls for the 20th are promising for size, but the wind is the enemy here.

Rusty.

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