Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast for Dairy Beach is a bit of a mixed bag, with a whole lot of waiting for the real goods. The start is a write-off, but we’ve got a couple of windows that’ll get the blood pumping, especially for the more experienced crew.

The first few days are a total bust. Saturday the 22nd is a no-go with a howling 31 mph SSW wind making it impossible. Sunday the 23rd shows a big jump in size – 10 ft from the south with a 10-second period and a cross-offshore wind, which sounds tempting, but the score is low, likely due to tricky tides. The combined energy is massive (1878), so there’s power, but it’s probably a mess.

Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th are tiny and weak, with onshore winds, so don’t even bother. The energy drops to 85 and 66, barely a ripple.

Then things get interesting. Wednesday morning, the 26th of August, is our first real standout. We’ve got a clean 4 ft swell from the south with a very long 16-second period, light offshore winds from the SSE at 6 mph, and combined energy of 923. The water temp is 70°, which is bang on average for this time of year. This is a classic groundswell – long, powerful lines that will wrap in nicely. The long period means it’ll be a bit straight at the beach, so keep that in mind, but the conditions will be glassy and clean. *This is the best on offer for the first week.* The afternoon gets a bit bigger at 6 ft, but the wind goes cross-shore and we get some chop, so stick to the morning.

From Thursday the 27th right through to the end of the month, we’re hammered by strong onshore winds from the NE, gusting up to 25 mph. The swell hangs around between 4 ft and 10 ft, but the wind is a nightmare. It’s going to be blown-out and choppy. The energy values are high (2000+ at times), but it’s all for the kite surfers, not paddle surfing. Skip it.

Monday the 31st of August brings another chance. The morning shows a clean 5 ft south swell with a long 14-second period, light cross-offshore winds from the S at 6 mph, and a solid 1032 energy. It’s a very similar setup to the 26th – clean, lined-up, and surfable. The afternoon drops off to 4 ft with less energy, so the morning is the pick.

The first week of September is a tease. Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd are onshore and messy. Thursday the 3rd has a 7 ft – 8 ft swell from the ENE, but with onshore winds, it’s not worth it.

Now, here’s the big one. Friday the 4th of September. This is a major event, but it’s for experts only. The morning brings a 13 ft south swell with an 11-second period and cross-offshore winds, while the afternoon is an 12 ft south swell with an incredible 12-second period and *glassy conditions* – a 3 mph easterly breeze. The combined energy is off the charts: 3750 and 3603. This is a very big, powerful swell. The forecast says it’s too big for this break, and I agree. It’s a solid, powerful groundswell that will be heavy and dangerous. Only the most experienced crew should even look at it. The afternoon is a true standout for those who can handle it, but for the average punter, this is a watch-from-the-beach day.

Saturday the 5th of September still has a solid 7 ft south swell with a 13-second period and clean conditions, making it a much safer option for strong intermediates. The energy is still high (1705). After that, it drops off quickly into Sunday the 6th with tiny, weak waves.

So, to sum it up: the best windows are the mornings of the 26th of August and the 31st of August. They’re your clean, fun, surfable days. The 4th of September is a standout for the big-wave chargers, but it’s a serious beast. Everything else is a write-off.

Rusty.

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