Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with the long-range look for Dairy Beach (New Pier). Let’s be straight with you right from the start: the next week and a half is a rough stretch for clean waves. The first decent window doesn’t show up until Saturday the 18th, so we’ve got a gap of pretty much four days of "I wouldn't bother" straight out of the gate. For the rest of the run, most of the time the wind is straight onshore from the NE, which turns what could be okay swell into choppy mess. The water temp is sitting at a pleasant 72°F which is about average for this time of year.

For the first few days, Sunday the 12th has a messy cross-on breeze with a 4ft south swell, but the waves will be lumpy, and the rating’s basically a write-off. Monday the 13th through Thursday the 17th is a flat to poor run – the swell tries to push through at 5ft to 7ft, but it’s all onshore NE wind, so it’s just blown-out slop. Even the cross-off winds on Friday the 17th only give clean conditions with a tiny 4ft to 4ft wave, meaning it’s small and weak.

Now, here's the standout. Saturday the 18th morning. That is your one true chance. A solid south swell moves in, 5ft, with a period of 12 seconds – good, long groundswell that will wrap in nicely, and the wind is light cross-off from the SSE. The combined swell energy hits a solid 924 (moderate) and the forecast says "expect very good surf conditions". That’s clean, lined-up waves, perfect for an intermediate surfer. The crowd profile says ‘often’, so expect company – this spot is popular, but for that quality, it’s worth sharing. Afternoon on the 18th gets trickier as the wind shifts onshore and the period jumps to a very long 15 seconds, which can make it break a bit too straight for a beach/pier setup, plus it looks a bit too energetic (1403 energy). Still, the morning window is the clear winner.

After that, it dries up fast. Sunday the 19th is back to onshore winds and poor surf. There’s a spike in swell around the 24th and 27th with big energy (1666 and 1845) and 7ft to 8ft wave heights from the south, but the wind is just hammering on from the NE. That kind of size with strong onshore wind will be wild, messy, and honestly looks more interesting for kite gear than a paddle board. For the whole second week, the story stays the same: onshore wind and poor conditions. A few small clean windows on the 22nd but only 2ft to 2ft – not worth the wetsuit.

So to wrap it: Saturday 18th July morning is your day. Get there early. The rest of the forecast is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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