Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. I’ve looked over the charts for the next couple of weeks, and I’ll tell you right now, it’s a bit of a rough stretch for us. We’re not looking at a whole lot of rideable surf, and a lot of what’s on the cards is going to be blown out or messy.

The pattern is pretty grim for the first several days. From Tuesday the 8th right through to the 14th, it’s pretty much all onshore wind, which just chops everything up. We see that swells do push through, but the quality is just not there. The water is sitting at 70°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no worries there. You won't need a thicker suit just yet.

There is a bit of a pulse of energy on Tuesday the 8th, with the swell reaching 7ft in the afternoon, but it’s a short-period 7-second windswell coming from the ENE, and it’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. The energy reading spikes to 743, but that doesn't mean much when it's this lumpy. It’s a no-go.

The wind stays on it for the next few days. Thursday the 10th still has those ENE swells at around 7ft, but it's all onshore. We get a slight change on Friday the 11th with a cross-offshore wind, which cleans things up a bit, but the swell drops to around 4ft. It’s clean, but just weak and uninviting. Saturday the 12th is similar, with a bumpy cross-on wind. Not worth the paddle.

We have a bit of a gap here where the surf is just poor. From the 8th to the 14th, it’s just a write-off. You’re looking at a week of onshore junk. Then Monday the 14th afternoon, the wind really pipes up. We see a strong breeze from the NE at 28 mph, and the swell jumps to a full 10ft. But it’s still an ENE windswell with a period of 8 seconds. This is all closeouts and whitewater. To be honest, that setup looks far more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers. The energy is pumping, hitting 1051, but it’s not for us.

Things start to change a little mid-week. Wednesday the 16th afternoon, we get a bit of a shift. The wind swings to the south, giving us a cross-offshore flow, and the swell is still solid at 8ft, but it's from the ENE with a 9-second period. The energy is up there at 1002. It’s still not great, but there’s a glimmer. The wind is light and clean, which is a big plus.

Now, the standout, as far as anything can be a standout in this forecast, arrives on Thursday the 17th. The morning session is the one to look at. The wind is offshore from the SSW, the sky is cloudy, and the swell is a clean 5ft from the east with a 10-second period. The energy is moderate at 477. The comment says to expect good surf conditions, and that offshore wind is just what we need to clean it up. This is your best chance in the whole window for a decent paddle.

The following week is up and down. Friday the 18th sees a new pulse of south swell, around 7ft, but it's coming with a cross-offshore wind and some rain, so it'll be lumpy. Then there’s another flat spell around the 19th and 20th with poor conditions. We get another shot on Monday the 21st. The morning has a strong SW offshore wind at 25 mph, with a 7ft south swell. The energy is moderate, 664, but the comment warns it’s hard to paddle into. It’ll be clean, but challenging. The afternoon looks better, with the wind easing to a moderate offshore and the swell dropping to 6ft. The score for that is a 2-out-of-10, which tells you all you need to know.

Finally, on Tuesday the 22nd, we see some long-period south groundswell at 4ft, with a 13-second period. The energy is up at 711, which is a decent amount. But the wind is variable and light. This is the kind of swell that would be great at a point break or reef, but here at Dairy Beach (New Pier), a longer period can often make the waves break too straight. It’s a bit of a tease.

So, to sum it up. The next week is mostly poor. The one day I’d point you towards is Thursday the 17th. Wake up early, get the offshore wind, and you might find some clean little waves. The other call is Tuesday the 22nd, but that’s a longer-range promise, and I wouldn't hold my breath. It’s a stretch, but if you’re keen, that's your window. The rest is for the kites.

Stay safe, and I’ll see you out there.

Rusty.

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