Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s brewing at Dairy Beach (New Pier).

It’s a classic pattern: a solid SSE groundswell hits hard this Saturday morning, then a quiet spell, before a proper South swell pumps through the middle of next week and beyond. The clear standout is this Saturday morning, with Thursday and Friday of the following week offering some solid, clean waves as long as you’ve got the skill to handle a stiff cross-off breeze.

Saturday the 4th of July, morning, is the one. Water temp’s 71°, which is right on average. Swell is a chunky 8 ft from the SSE, 12-second period, packing a massive 2204 units of energy – that’s a serious amount of juice. Wind is glassy, light from the NE at 3 mph. The whole setup is clean, powerful, and the swell direction is slightly east of the optimum east, but that doesn’t matter with this much energy. This is well over 8 ft, so it’s strictly for experienced surfers. Crowds are a given here when it’s good. Expect a lineup.

Saturday afternoon the swell drops to 7 ft, same 12-second period, but the wind goes east at 3 mph, putting a light cross-on ripple on the surface. Energy dips to 1426. Surfable, but the morning is far superior.

Sunday the 5th fades. Morning has 6 ft from the SSE, but onshore NNE wind at 6 mph ruins the quality. Energy is 801. Afternoon is a total write-off with 12 mph onshore wind and only 539 energy units. Leave it.

Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th are flat. Waves under 3 ft, onshore winds, and pathetic energy. Not worth wetting a wetsuit.

Wednesday the 8th is tiny but perfectly clean with cross-off winds. Swell is only 2-2 ft, though, and weak. You’d be lucky to get a wave.

Now for the second pulse. Thursday the 9th of July afternoon comes alive: 6 ft from the S, 15-second period, clean cross-off wind from the SSE at 9 mph. Energy is 1312. That’s a long-period groundswell that will work the pier nicely. The surface is clean, the power is there. Good for intermediate and above.

Friday the 10th of July morning keeps it going: 5 ft from the S, 13 seconds, cross-off SSW wind at 9 mph, energy at 1156. It’s solid. The afternoon kicks up to 7 ft from the S, 16-second period, but the wind jumps to 16 mph from the south, a strong cross-off. Energy is 1965. Very powerful, and it’s clean, but that wind makes it a session for the strong paddler.

Saturday the 11th stays big at 7 ft from the S, 14 seconds, but the wind goes cross-shore from the SE, adding some bump. Energy is 1808. The morning is okay, but the afternoon gets onshore and choppy.

From Sunday the 12th through Saturday the 18th of July, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. Onshore NE winds dominate, waves are small or short period. The only small window is Tuesday the 14th – a 3-5 ft ENE swell with a 7-second period, but it’s clean and cross-off from a light S wind. Energy is only 126-208. You could find a wave, but it’s nothing special.

Thursday the 16th of July morning gives you 7 ft from the NE, a strong cross-off SSW wind at 16 mph, but the period is only 7 seconds. Energy is 1098. It’s clean but messy in power – not a classic.

The one to circle on your calendar is Saturday morning, July 4th, with that glassy, heavy SSE swell. For the second week, Thursday afternoon the 9th and Friday morning the 10th are your best shots for a clean, powerful session, but you’ll need to handle the wind.

No other breaks on the list, so this is your lot.

Rusty.

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