Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut to it. The next couple of weeks look pretty grim for waves around this stretch of coast. There’s plenty of wind and a lot of messy, blown-out surf, so we're in for a patient stretch. We're looking at a real dry spell, but there is one window right at the end of the outlook that has some serious potential, so don’t write it off.

The first week is a total washout. We're talking onshore winds and poor surf straight through from Thursday the 10th. The swell is there, about 5 to 6 feet on Thursday, but it’s short-period windswell and the wind is absolutely ruining it. It's not going to be worth paddling out. Friday the 11th is clean but weak, with knee-high slop around 3 feet. The weekend is no better with more onshore wind and lumpy conditions. By Monday the 14th, a big pulse of energy shows up, you can see the combined energy jumps to 712 and then 1957, which is a strong, powerful system. But it’s all ruined by howling NE winds, 28 to 34 mph, making for 7 to 11 feet of full-blown, blown-out chaos. That’s not for paddle surfing, that’s a kite-surfing afternoon.

Things calm down a bit on Tuesday the 15th, but it’s still not good. We get a glimmer of hope on Wednesday morning the 16th. The swell is down to a more manageable 5 feet from the E with a 9-second period, and we finally get a light cross-offshore SSE wind. That’s the first time the waves look clean. The combined energy is 467, which is moderate. That’s rideable, but I wouldn’t be planning the day around it. The afternoon gets ruined by a 31 mph SSW wind.

The stretch from the 17th to the 21st is mostly average to poor. There are moments, like Thursday the 17th, with a bigger 8 foot S swell and a cross-offshore wind, but the tide and overall wave quality are iffy. Then the NE winds come back and blow everything apart for the weekend.

Now, for the true standout. Tuesday morning, the 22nd of September. This is the one to circle. We’ve got a proper south groundswell, a solid 6 feet at 13 seconds, which is a long period that brings real energy and shape. The wind is light and offshore from the SW, which is exactly what we want for Dairy Beach (New Pier). The guidance shows an optimum swell direction from the E, but the S swell should wrap in well enough. The combined energy is a hefty 1300. This is the one, folks. Expect proper lined-up waves with a shoulder to carve. It might be a bit much for the beginners at 6 feet, but it's a fantastic prospect for the intermediate crowd. Just a shame the afternoon turns messy with a strong SSE wind, so get your session in early. The last few days after that hold no promise, so make the most of that Tuesday morning window. It’s a long way out, so treat it as a promising tip rather than a guarantee, but it’s definitely the best thing I can see on the charts.

Keep it salty.
Rusty.

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