Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down for Dairy Beach (New Pier). Rusty here, and I’ll tell you straight – the start is pretty grim. Water temp is about 68°, which feels a bit colder than normal for this time of year, maybe a degree and a half off, so you’ll notice it.

The forecast opens Sunday the 13th, and it’s a dud. Cross-onshore wind from the ENE at 9 mph, with a weak 5 ft swell at a short 9 seconds. The energy is moderate at 540, but it’s choppy and messy. The wind gets stronger through the afternoon and into Monday, with onshore winds and the swell jumping up, but it’s all blown out.

Monday the 14th is a definite skip – near gale-force winds and a big, unruly 12 ft swell that’s way too much for a beach break. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not fun.

Tuesday the 15th looks like a turnaround. The morning is glassy – barely any wind, with a 7 ft easterly swell at 9 seconds. The energy is moderate (685), and it’ll be clean, but the period is short, so don’t expect groundswell quality. Still, a glassy 7 ft wave at a beach break is a decent window. Expect crowds though – this spot gets busy when it’s clean.

Wednesday the 16th is rideable but not perfect. Morning has a light cross-shore breeze from the SE, with a 6 ft E swell at a better 10 seconds. Energy is moderate (688). The afternoon brings a clean cross-offshore wind from the SSW at 19 mph, but that’s a bit fresh, so it’ll be bumpy.

The real standout is Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th. Thursday morning delivers a clean 5 ft easterly swell at 10 seconds, with a light offshore wind from the SW at 12 mph. The energy is moderate (410), and the waves should have decent shape. Not huge, but fun. Friday morning has a 6 ft ESE swell at 9 seconds, with a gentle cross-offshore wind. The energy jumps to strong (1127) – that’s a noticeable step up in power. Clean conditions, consistent, and the swell direction is a solid match for the break’s optimum from the east. This is your best bet for a proper session.

But Saturday the 19th is a big one. A massive 13 ft ESE groundswell at 9 seconds is forecast for the morning, with a light offshore wind. The energy is very strong (2531). The problem is, that’s just too big for this beach break. It’s expert-only, and even then, it’ll be a wild, dangerous paddle. The wind is favorable, but the swell size is a major caveat.

After that, the surf drops off. Sunday the 20th through to the end of the forecast period is mostly onshore wind and small, weak swell. The energy drops well below 500, and the wind is generally poor. There’s a brief window on Thursday the 24th with a fresh offshore wind, but the swell is only 3 ft to 3 ft – not enough to get excited about. The following days look flat or blown out.

So, to sum it up: the best windows are Tuesday morning the 15th for glassy but short-period waves, and Friday morning the 18th for a clean, punchy 6 ft swell with good energy. Saturday the 19th is for experts only due to the massive size. The rest of the fortnight is a mix of small, windy, or just plain poor conditions. Crowds are likely when it’s good, so plan accordingly.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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