Dairy Beach (New Pier) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Dairy Beach (New Pier). It’s a bit of a mixed bag this fortnight, with a whole lot of wind-ruined days early on, but there’s a real standout window for the experienced crew if you’re patient.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a stretch of poor conditions. The wind is howling onshore from the NE, blowing 22 mph to 25 mph, and the swell is mostly messy short-period stuff. The energy is there, though – we’re seeing combined swell energy values of 1743 and 1604, which is strong, but it’s all blown out with that onshore wind. The 27th and 28th are write-offs, with the swell on the 28th afternoon hitting 8 ft from the ENE at a weak 8 seconds, but it’s all wind chop. The 29th is the same story, with a 12 ft ENE swell in the afternoon, but the wind is a brutal 28 mph onshore. That’s not surfable, that’s a kite session.

The 30th brings a change. The wind shifts to a cross-off from the SSW at 22 mph, and the swell is 6 ft ENE at 9 seconds. The conditions are clean, but the energy drops to 670, and the forecast is still marginal. Monday the 31st is the first real glimmer of hope. The wind drops to a light breeze, coming from the S at 6 mph, and it’s cross-off. The swell is a modest 4 ft from the E, with a period of 9 seconds, and combined energy of 454. We’ve got “expect good surf conditions” in the data. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and rideable. That’s your best early option for a longboard or a fun log.

Then we hit another dry spell. The 1st and 2nd of September are mostly poor, with onshore winds returning. The 3rd is a write-off with onshore NE winds. On the 4th, we see a big 8 ft S swell start to push in with a 13-second period and combined energy of 2396, but it’s all onshore NE wind. The afternoon is a brutal 12 ft S swell with 28 mph winds. That’s ugly.

Now, for the real standout. Mark your calendars for Monday the 7th of September. The morning brings a 8 ft ENE swell at 8 seconds, with a light SSE breeze at 9 mph, and it’s cross-off. The conditions are clean, and the data says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The combined energy is 1521, solid. By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 12 ft from the E at 9 seconds, with the same light wind, and the energy hits 2321. The report says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is too big for this break. The score is high, but that size is expert territory only. If you’re a strong surfer, that Monday is the one to aim for. The crowd factor is listed as “often” at Dairy Beach, so expect company.

The 8th and 9th are still big, with 10 ft and 12 ft ENE swells, but the wind shifts onshore, so it’s not as good. The 10th and 11th fade back to smaller, cleaner conditions but with strong cross-off winds, so nothing special.

The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no need to worry about a wetsuit change.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust for the most part. The 31st of August is your fun-size clean day. The real prize is Monday the 7th of September, but that’s only for the experienced crew. Don’t hold your breath for the rest.

Rusty.

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